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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • $2.50 a Year in Interest? That’s What $5,000 in Savings Gets
    Hi guys. I should have said “I stand corrected.“ :)
    @FD1000 - You caught me off guard with the “peak-to-trough” lingo. Frankly, other than from John Hussman, I haven’t heard the term tossed around much. When Hussman uses it he’s usually also referencing a complete market cycle (measured in years). Yes - I suppose even 3 days could constitute “peak-to-trough”, as in the case of a money market fund breaking the buck.
    I took your response as a reference to @BenWP’s mention of using TMSRX to invest some cash. One thing I assiduously try to avoid is “second-guessing” or criticizing investment decisions reported by other members. That’s because I don’t know their full circumstances or what they intend to achieve. I know Ben to be a very experienced investor, so if he made a determination, after looking at the charts, that the fund satisfied his needs, I’ll let it be. It’s not for me to suggest an alternative fund - unless he so requests such assistance.
    Many of us have been “reaching for yield” in a very low interest rate environment. For portfolio positioning, some of us take (and have been taking) a “liberal” approach to cash - though technically it means “risk-free“ money. I just threw a bunch of idle cash into PRIHX, an intermediate-term junk bond fund. I’m fully aware I might lose a bit on the move - but I’m willing to take that risk.
    Have a nice day.
  • $2.50 a Year in Interest? That’s What $5,000 in Savings Gets
    @Catch22 - Thanks. The roof fell in on a lot of stuff in March. I was busy buying up stuff, so didn’t pay much attention to short term losses. TRBUX, the ultra-short, which I also have held from inception, dropped about a dime during that brief period (from its $5.00 peg). It had been very stable for years. Clearly, something was very amiss in the credit markets - which @msf alludes to above. Considering that some equity funds fell 25-35% during March / April, a 9% loss looks tolerable. As I noted earlier, I wouldn’t use this fund as a cash substitute.
    Since when do we consider 15-days to represent “peak to trough” when speaking of mutual funds? Anybody with a 15-30 day time horizon should rush on down to their local bank and deposit said funds in an insured passbook account.
    The magnitude of the short-lived market disruption is summarized well by Wikipedia:
    “The 2020 stock market crash, also referred to as the Coronavirus Crash, was a major and sudden global stock market crash that began on 20 February 2020 and ended on 7 April. The crash was the fastest fall in global stock markets in financial history and the most devastating crash since the Wall Street Crash of 1929.”
  • $2.50 a Year in Interest? That’s What $5,000 in Savings Gets
    As FD1000 has written elsewhere and here, one shouldn't plan one's life around black swan events. Though as I've written before, what some call black swan events happen with almost predictable regularity.
    Because of Fed intervention (IMHO that was the true black swan), the loss for TMSRX was short lived. For an enhanced cash-ish holding, time to breakeven would seem to be a metric one might care more about. One might be willing to wait a few months in exchange for not losing any value.
    By that measure, the timeframe to look at for TMSRX is 4/4/18 (peak) to 12/27/18 (trough, down 4.99%) through 7/1/19 (full recovery). 15 months under water.
    In comparison, VBIRX dropped from 11/7/2001 to 12/17/2001 by 1.91%, taking until 5/22/2001 to fully recover, about half a year. Similar half year periods include:
    3/16/04 (peak) to 6/14/04 (down 2.7%) to 9/16/04 (full recovery);
    10/26/04 (peak) to 3/28/05 (down 1.4%) to 5/18/05;
    3/17/08 (peak) to 6/13/08 (down 2.3%) to 9/8/08;
    11/4/10 (peak) to 2/8/11 (down 1.8%) to 5/16/11;
    5/2/13 (peak) to 7/5/13 (down 1.4%) to 11/26/13.
    I consider these half year spans acceptable timeframes; the fund is not a checking account.
    FWIW, there were a couple of more extended periods under water (albeit shallow water):
    7/5/16 (peak) to 12/15/16 (down 1.8%) to 6/2/17 (11 months);
    9/8/17 (peak) to 5/16/18 (down 1.8%) to 12/18/18 (15 months).
    If sharp drops are what concern you, then look at Veteran's day, 2003. VBIRX spiked 4.1% from the day before, and dropped back down 3.8% the next day. While this might seem to violate the "definition" of black swan because it is not unexpected (bond market closed while stock market open invites bond fund weirdness), the spike wasn't predictable. It seems to have been the only such spike. Also, the fund took over 1.5 years to recover full value on 6/1/2005.
    At the end of the day I look at SEC yield. VBIRX's SEC yield is 0.34% (source: Vanguard). ICSH is 0.39%. JPST is 0.51%. (ETF source: Fidelity) Ally Bank will pay you 0.60%, FDIC insured, rate guaranteed for 11 months, and you can get your money out at any time. The only strings are: the withdrawal is all or nothing, and you can't withdraw in the first seven days.
    To do significantly better, one is going to have to move up the risk spectrum. Whether that is length of time to avoid loss, maximum potential loss, likelihood of being down at any given moment, or some other measure, something has to give.
  • $2.50 a Year in Interest? That’s What $5,000 in Savings Gets
    TMSRX is another animal. There are many bond funds to select from. It lost over 9% in the last meltdown (peak to trough)
    Huh? TMSRX opened in February, 2018 - so is less than 3 years old. I checked at Yahoo and could find no record of a 9% drawdown.
    I’ve owned it since inception and recall that it stumbled out of the gate when the AUM was very low. So it likely ended 2018 in the red. Allowing for that, 9% drawdown sounds a lot higher than I recall in 2018. I really can’t imagine it falling that far over any given 12-month period. But, it is new and untested.
    I use it in my alternative investments sleeve. However, I’ve sometimes thought it might fit in as an income fund, with volatility similar to a short / medium duration bond fund, but much less susceptible to interest rate risk. I would not use it as a cash alternative - but have no serious argument with those who might do so.
    Chart for TMSRX from Lipper. Note the fund’s performance in dark colors (red/green) contrasted with similar funds shaded in lighter shades. Here’s the link..
    image
    -
  • $2.50 a Year in Interest? That’s What $5,000 in Savings Gets
    We are on this site because we want to read and discuss investments but this is another typical catchy article with no substance.
    I like articles with solutions instead of stating the obvious.
    The following are a decent place instead of MM. They are not guaranteed, and they lost money in the last Black Swan(up to 2-3%) but you shouldn't invest for years to come based on that.
    ICSH
    JPST
    BSV=VBIRX
    ===========
    TMSRX is another animal. There are many bond funds to select from. It lost over 9% in the last meltdown (peak to trough)
  • DeForest R. Hinman named portfolio manager of Walthausen Small Cap Value Fund
    I used to own WSVIX, after having been referred to Walthausen by Kevin O'Boyle who had had a fine stint at Meridian Value before founding his own fund, the Presidio Fund. This SCV fund was also a fine performer. When O'Boyle decided to close the fund, I asked where he'd put his own money. With John Walthausen, he said. When Rick Aster at Meridian died suddenly, O'Boyle helped out by managing temporarily again. WSVIX had a couple of very good years before small cap value lost any sort of mojo at all. John Walthausen may have realized the wait for good returns could eat up his retirement. It's been reported elsewhere that the number of stocks available has been declining steadily; I think it may be all the harder these to discover good companies in the SCV arena.
  • $2.50 a Year in Interest? That’s What $5,000 in Savings Gets
    Fewer years than one might expect.
    Just think, with the power of compounding, after just two years, one would have not 0.10% (2 x 0.05%) in total interest, but a whopping 0.100025%! And it only gets better after that.
  • $2.50 a Year in Interest? That’s What $5,000 in Savings Gets
    Wow-pays for a 20 bottle of soda with change left over !
    Thanks @carew388 for doing the “tough math”. I suppose you’d need to let those earnings build for a number of years to buy a glass of good scotch.
  • Perpetual Buy/Sell/Why Thread
    Sold GDX Gold Miners ETF. >50% return in less than 6 months, pigs get slaughtered. I'm also unclear has to how much more upside might be pulled from this holding.
    @Mark - I hate to inform you the sky is the limit. A lot of the appeal is emotional - hence difficult to value. Miners up 6.85% today alone.
    I know it sounds crazy. I sold my miners a few months ago (for the same good reason you did) - but than “got religion” and bought back in - though only half as much as I sold. It’s now considered a “spec” position - the advantage being it isn’t subject to rebalancing. I don’t understand it. @rono’s the expert. But from reading Bill Fleckenstein pretty regularly I decipher this much:
    - Fed will loose control of the yield curve (whatever that means)
    - Dollar will weaken substantially.
    - Inflation will inflate (run a lot hotter).
    - Stocks will crash.
    - Eventually the Wall Street crowd (fund managers, etc.) will repent of their current skepticism and start buying up the gold miners for the accounts they manage.
    I think that last one is probably the strongest argument Fleck makes, since it suggests there’s still a lot of room to run. I’ll have to say there’s a crowd of die-hard gold bugs who participate in that forum (paid subscription) and it does seem to me to be sort of a religion with many. A 25% selloff in miners doesn’t seem to faze them - so focused are they on the longer term prospects.
    These aren’t necessarily my own views. I’m just sharing FWIW what I perceive as the arguments of the gold bulls. And, of course, nobody wants to be in the metals when the trend reverses. I’ve been on both sides of that coin - so to speak - in my 50 years of investing.
    Full Disclosure:
    OPGSX is considered a “spec“ position and represents only about 2.5% of portfolio.
    PRPFX has substantial exposure to precious metals / miners. About 11% of portfolio.
    PRAFX has limited / moderate exposure to precious metals / miners. About 3.5% of portfolio.
  • “I don’t believe in Warren Buffet” - Fidelity’s Mark Schmehl
    “Valuation is an immaterial part of the process for me ... It’s the least useful piece of information you will ever get because everybody knows what the valuation is.”
    Interview: Fidelity Manager Mark Schmehl - 2017
    Interview: From 2019
    Interview: From 2019
    Looks pretty good to me if his numbers show it, and they do. Looking for disrupting companies is a great thyme and using momentum is another good idea. I looked at 2 of his funds and I see companies such as SHOP,ZM,SQ. 3 great momentum companies YTD, I traded SHOP,SQ several weeks ago for fun.
    Buffett's stock hasn't been doing particularly well in the last 10 years and why BRKA trails it significantly (link). Buffett finally gave up and bought Apple and now it's his biggest stock holdings. This is not the 70"-80" we are in the IT age where every kid around the world has free access to a lot of data and why it's much harder to find a hidden nugget. The big high tech companies now rule the world, they make so much money too.
  • Dead Cat Bounce?
    @carew388 So I guess the market prefers continued low taxes to a big stimulus package. Maybe makes sense: would probably mean another slow recovery with years of zero interest rates. Or maybe short-term market moves don't mean much?
  • T. Rowe Price Spectrum Income Fund change in expense fee
    Another one posting here characterized RPSIX to me as "a good place to hold money when you haven't decided yet what to do with it."
    I made that comment 5 or more years ago. Things change. As noted elsewhere, within the past 10 days, I closed out my dwindling allocation to RPSIX. I suspect however, it will still have enjoy some good years - contingent now on how the riskier assets it holds behave (stocks, EM and junk bonds), since there’s not much room to maneuver on the interest rate end.
    My abandonment of RPSIX has more to do with changes in investment style. I’ve added some additional risk out on the “risk end” of the spectrum (with spec positions in gold and foreign equity), reduced my allocation to the center of the spectrum (RPSIX) and gotten more conservative on the conservative end of the spectrum by adding the investment grade bond index fund PBDIX so that it is now one of my largest holdings.
    One size doesn’t fit all. Nor were these changes sudden. Just a slow shift that began in early March as I reacted to a drastically altered playing field. It gets complicated - but as an investor one tries to balance out competing themes and risk/reward contingencies: Covid-19 / very low prevailing interest rates / an accommodative Fed / Government stimulus packages / supply chain issues and shortages of some goods (ie lumber) / political strife / action in the dollar on currency markets, etc.
  • T. Rowe Price Spectrum Income Fund change in expense fee
    RPSIX +0.85% YTD // 10 year average + 4.28%
    We could delve into numerous issues confronting this once fine fund, notably its exposure to a value-leaning equity fund, as noted by msf.
    I’m inclined to think it has more to do with the extremely low rate environment. Which leads me to comments by Ed in the November Commentary regarding his old fund, OAKBX. ISTM - Ed exculpates (or attempts to) Clyde McGregor for the fund’s loss of more than half its AUM in recent years and related sub-par performance. To oversimplify Ed’s well reasoned arguments - the issue traces back not to management but to the prevailing historically low rate environment and the way
    balanced funds seek to operate. The downside protection once offered by bonds simply doesn’t exist in this environment.
    I think to an extent the same argument can be applied to RPSIX - thought it isn’t a balanced fund in the traditional sense. The fund has always sought to balance risk (from equity, EM debt, junk bonds) with higher quality paper, including longer dated treasury bonds. But that hedge has largely been lost now in a period of such low rates. Is Price’s new “darling” TMSRX the answer? At just 2 years of age, I’m inclined to withhold judgment. But that won’t stop torrents of $$ from pouring in (including some of mine).
    @TheShadow / Sorry for the thread drift here. Afraid my brain doesn’t always run in a straight line. :)
  • DeForest R. Hinman named portfolio manager of Walthausen Small Cap Value Fund
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418191/000141304220000637/walth497pros110420.htm
    497 1 walth497pros110420.htm
    WALTHAUSEN FUNDS
    Walthausen Small Cap Value Fund (WSCVX and WFICX)
    Supplement dated November 4, 2020
    to the Prospectus dated June 1, 2020
    Effective immediately the second paragraph under the heading Management on page 4 of Prospectus is deleted in its entirety and replaced with the following:
    Portfolio Managers
    John B. Walthausen has managed the Fund since its inception in February 2008. Mr. Walthausen is the Chief Investment Officer of the Advisor. Gerard S.E. Heffernan has co-managed the Fund since March 2018. Mr. Heffernan is a portfolio manager for the Advisor. DeForest R. Hinman has co-managed the Fund since November 2020. Mr. Hinman is a portfolio manager for the Advisor.
    Additionally, first paragraph under the heading The Investment Advisor on page 7 of Prospectus is deleted in its entirety and replaced with the following:
    Walthausen & Co., LLC, 2691 Route 9, Suite 102, Malta, NY 12020, is the investment advisor of the Fund and has responsibility for the management of the Fund's affairs, under the supervision of the Fund's Board of Trustees. The Fund's investment portfolio is co-managed on a day-to-day basis by John B. Walthausen, CFA Gerard S.E. Heffernan CFA and DeForest R. Hinman. Mr. Walthausen founded the Advisor in 2007 and is a managing director of the Advisor. Mr. Walthausen is the Chief Investment Officer of the Advisor. Mr. Walthausen has managed the Fund since its inception. Mr. Walthausen's formal education includes a BA from Kenyon College and a MBA from New York University. Mr. Heffernan joined the Advisor in February 2018. His involvement in the investment industry spans over 25 years, including 15 years at Lord Abbett & Co., where he was a partner and portfolio manager specializing in small cap value equities. From June 2013 until February 2018, he was self-employed managing his own portfolio. Mr. Heffernan received a B.S. in Business Administration from Villanova University. DeForest R. Hinman has been a principal of Walthausen & Co. since the firm’s inception in September, 2007. Before his appointment as a co-portfolio manager, he served previously as a co-portfolio manager of the Walthausen Small Cap Value Fund and Walthausen Select Value Fund in 2017, and retains his position as Director of Research for Walthausen & Co. DeForest’s formal education includes a B.S. in Business Administration (Summa Cum Laude) from State University of NY at Albany and a M.B.A. in Finance from the State University at Albany.
    This supplement and the Prospectus dated June 1, 2020 provide the information a prospective investor ought to know before investing and should be retained for future reference. The prospectus has been filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and can be obtained without charge by calling the Fund at 1-888-925-8428 or by visiting the Fund’s website at www.walthausenfunds.com.
  • “I don’t believe in Warren Buffet” - Fidelity’s Mark Schmehl
    Why does this sound like teenager saying they don't believe in Santa Claus?
    He’s obviously made money for his investors. Comes across to me as a bit “smug” however. He’s currently 46. Likely BD - 1974.
    For some perspective .....
    - I was already investing with Sir John Templeton and reading the financial press when this kid was born.
    - Schmehl would have been 5 when Paul Volker became Chairman of the Fed with ramifications that investors are still feeling today. He has only known falling interest rates. Never witnessed high inflation and 15-20% interest rates on money market funds.
    - Buffett’s been investing at least 40 years longer.
    Not to be misunderstood: I posted this for assorted reasons - one being it’s valuable to learn about as many different investing styles as possible. It’s easier to chart your own course if you understand the playing field you’re standing on (apologies for the mixed metaphor).
  • Morgan Stanley Global Opportunity (MGGPX) to close to new investors
    Maybe MS wants to clip the wings of its successful manager. I assume he gets a cut of all the AUM. Just sayin' (maybe the dumbest idiom to come along in some years).
  • Finance slang - animals
    Seems to me most of those phrases are male oriented - an indication the market was dominated by males until recently. Story about Muriel Siebert
    Had women promulgated the market’s vocabulary a discussion of investing might sound something like this ...
    “The lotus flower’s unfolding petals suggest the expansion of the soul; the growth of its pure beauty from the mud of its origin holds a benign spiritual promise.”
    Translation: The current economic expansion which has lasted for many years will continue.
    “A wooded hill where perpetual twilight reigns under the star lit sky ... “
    Translation: This fund’s a perennial looser. Manager hasn’t a clue.
    “Thick-growing firs and spruces ... “
    Translation: Large established companies make attractive investments
    “June Bells - the sweetest of woodland blooms ...”
    Translation: Great fund / Closed to new investors
    “Some flowers that look like buttercups are marigolds, and colours that some would call yellow others might call orange.”
    Translation Their accounting appears suspect. Avoid this one.
    “The south wind blows Dora, so that the wild flowers in the hedges are all Doras, to a bud.”
    Translation: Don’t fight the Fed.
    “The little blue flowers were withered and dry, having lost nearly all their leaves ...“
    Translation: My portfolio stinks.
    *Citation: In composing this, I borrowed heavily from 18 Metaphors for Flower.
  • Lydia So, new portfolio manager for the Rondure New World Fund
    Hi, Lewis. I think the market cap floor was part of the original partnership agreement between Grandeur Peak and Rondure Global.
    Greetings, Shadow. Ms. So managed Matthews Asia Small Companies for 11 years. Her last above-average year was 2014 and assets have been drifting away since 2015. That might, in part, explain why she and Matthews separated.
    I'll reach out to Ms. Geritz to see what I can learn.
    David
  • Lydia So, new portfolio manager for the Rondure New World Fund
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915802/000139834420021185/fp0058962_497.htm
    (see link for more info)
    FINANCIAL INVESTORS TRUST
    SUPPLEMENT DATED NOVEMBER 2, 2020 TO THE PROSPECTUS AND STATEMENT OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
    FOR THE RONDURE NEW WORLD FUND (THE “FUND’) DATED AUGUST 31, 2020, AS
    SUPPLEMENTED FROM TIME TO TIME
    Effective immediately, Lydia So has joined the portfolio management team of the Fund. Therefore, the following changes are being made with respect to the Fund.
    Summary Prospectus/Prospectus
    The section entitled “Portfolio Managers” in the summary prospectus and in the summary section of the prospectus with respect to the Fund is hereby deleted and replaced in its entirety with the following:
    Portfolio Managers
    Laura Geritz, CFA, MA, Chief Executive Officer of the Adviser, has been a portfolio manager of the Fund since its inception in 2017. Lydia So, Portfolio Manager of the Adviser, has been a portfolio manager of the Fund since November 2020.
    Prospectus
    The following information is added after the last paragraph in the section entitled “The Portfolio Manager” in the prospectus with respect to the Fund:
    Lydia So, CFA
    Lydia So is a Portfolio Manager for the Rondure New World Fund. Her primary focus is on developing markets and her secondary focus is on international developed markets.
    Prior to joining Rondure in 2020, Ms. So spent 15 years at Matthews Asia, initially as research analyst covering Asia ex Japan equities. She served as Co-Portfolio Manager for the Matthews Asia Science & Technology Fund (MATFX; now known as Matthews Asia Innovators Fund) from 2008 - 2017. Ms. So was the founding Lead Portfolio Manager for the Matthews Asia Small Companies Fund (MSMLX) from its inception in 2008 - 2020, and Co-Portfolio Manager for the Matthews China Small Companies Fund (MCSMX) from 2019 -2020.
    Ms. So started her career in the investment industry in 1999 at Kochis Fitz Wealth Management in San Francisco. In 2001, she joined Dresdner RCM Global Investors as a portfolio associate working on U.S. Large Cap equity strategies.
    Ms. So graduated from University of California, Davis, earning a BA in Economics. She is a CFA charter holder.
  • Fund Moves in 2020
    Per previous comments, agree that FMIJX was a good performer for several years in my portfolio until @2018. Was then on my watch list until March of 2020 as its pandemic performance belied its stated defensive posture. Traded into WCMIX--similar standard deviation and beta and with no regrets.