Sticking to the original topic, as I meant no insult to any individual posters here, OJ or FD1000, I find, to be more specific, much albeit not all of technical analysis to be nonsense. I think volume data is useful in the right hands, as are advance decline, short-term momentum, and investor sentiment ratios, but it is this specific rearview analysis in the article of long-term past returns I find to be ridiculous:

April has been the strongest month this century, rising 80% of the time AND producing average monthly gains of 2.5%. The second- and third-best months are November (rises 79% of the time, with average monthly gains of 1.7%) and October (rises 70% of the time, with average monthly gains of 1.3%), respectively. In fact, if we look at the S&P 500, there have only been 7 years when this benchmark index has fallen during both October AND November. Here are the years:
1951, 1971, 1973, 1976, 1987, 2000, 2008.
5 of those 7 years occurred during the secular bear markets from the 1970s and 2000s. 1987 was when we had Black Monday and the resulting fallout the next month (November). Outside of those years, we've had ONE year since 1950 when we've been in a secular bull market and saw the S&P 500 slide during both October and November in the same year. I think it's safe to say that the odds really favor the bulls during the balance of 2020.
Let's take it one step further. If we look at the S&P 500 from the close on October 27th through the close on January 18th of the following calendar year, our benchmark index has ended this period higher than it started in 61 of the last 70 years. It's risen 35 times in the past 38 years during that period. I'd say the odds are definitely on the bulls' side. But it's not just the frequency of the gains, it's the size of them. Before I give you this next stat, keep in mind that the S&P 500 has averaged gaining roughly 9% per year since 1950. Would you like to know how many times the S&P 500 has gained at least 9% during this "less-than-90-day-period"? 17. And if we lower the bar to 8% or more, the number swells to 25 times in the past 70 years.
What if I said that the NASDAQ's history during this period is even more bullish? Because it is. The average gain on the S&P 500 during that October 28th through January 18th period is 4.59%. The NASDAQ? +6.20%. Furthermore, over the past three decades, here are the 4 best calendar months on the NASDAQ in terms of annualized returns:

To look at history based merely on the price movements in the past without any real analysis as to why that price movement occurred--say falling interest rates, age demographics, America becoming a super power after the wars, and not being in the midst of a terrible pandemic for instance--and whether similar conditions are present today is stupid and useless to me, and reaks of snakeoil salesmen.
However, there is use in some technical data I believe for measuring the "psychology" of the market in the short-term.

NYT article -

What has emerged from your research that retirees should think about?
The importance of interdependence alongside independence — we all would do better in our later years if we’re connected and not isolated. And how do I maximize my health span, not just my life span?
And there’s the serious issue of funding our longer lives. A third of the boomers have close to nothing saved for retirement and no pensions; that is a massive poverty phenomenon about to happen, unless millions of people work a bit longer, spend less, downsize or even share their homes with housemates or family.
What is the biggest mistake retirees make?
Far too many think far too small. I have asked thousands of people from all walks of life over the years who are nearing retirement what they hope to do in retirement. They tell me: ‘I want to get some rest, exercise some more, visit with my family, go on a great vacation, read some great books’ Then most stall. Few have taken the time or effort to study the countless possibilities that await them or imagine or explore all of the incredible ways they can spend the next period of their lives.

rethinking-retirement

Lots of BS about me. How nice is to post trash without any proof.
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@davidrmoran:but it is true that FD1k should be a multimillionaire, philanthropist, and posting regularly for seekingalpha or similar
FD: I'm a multimillionaire but not philanthropist or making money posting on seekingalpha.
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@davidrmoran: plus a byline somewhere advising others about bonds and his rapid fund trading without penalty.
FD: why do you think I should pay any penalty? I have special arrangement at Schwab where I have a dedicated trader that buys all the Inst funds for me with no commissions and I can sell these funds within one day (I don't buy funds that have longer mandatory hold). Example: IOFIX,PIMIX. If I don’t buy Inst funds and these funds are not Schwab fund and I sell within 90 days I do pay the $49.95 short term penalty which is nothing compared to the amount I'm making.
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@Junkster,
Your posts have several examples of liars, are you insinuating that I lied too?. I never claimed that I made a very high %, just a pretty good performance with very low SD. Remember, since I retired in 2018, we have enough money to sustain our standard of living for another 40-50 years if our portfolio will make just 4% annually including inflation. Our portfolio is 35+ times our annual expense without our SS. This is why I set up the following goals: make 6% average annually with the lowest SD I can get (preferably under 3) and never lose 3% from any last top. We don’t care about maximizing performance anymore but to meet our specific goals. To do that I use mainly bond mutual funds + several short term trades (hours-days) using stocks/ETF/CEFs/other. The 3 year results are much better than my goals. I never lost more than 1% from any last top in the last 3 years. Below is a copy from my Schwab accounts as of yesterday which is about 95% of our total money. There is no way to achieve these results without being a good trader and why I posted other funds too
3 year performance/SD...SPY 13.1%/17.7...VBINX (60/40) 10%/11.1....VWIAX (40/60) 7.046.6%/...PIMIX 3.75%/5.6....IOFIX 0.2%/23.7
My portfolio performance was 9.9% annually for 3 year with SD=2.18
Below you can see an image of performance as of 10/14/2020 from Schwab. Column 1=one year...Column 2=YTD...Column 3=one year...Column 4=3 years

Below is the SD for one year and 3 years

I prefer unhedged international stock funds.
As the article excerpt mentions, hedged/unhedged funds should generate similar long-term returns.
Although hedging costs have declined over the years, they still are a drag on performance.
The dollar has generally been strong vs. other major currencies in recent years.
However, this relationship is cyclical and will change sometime in the future.

I've looked at PIMIX before. $125B AUM. I stayed away. That's just beyond bloated. Just my preference.

Although Pimco can manage funds with considerable AUM better than most firms, I agree that PIMIX has become too bloated. The legacy RMBS that helped propel the fund for years are in short supply now and it will be difficult for the fund to take a meaningful position in these securities. Philosophically, I dislike Pimco's record of not closing any funds (to my knowledge) due to excessive AUM.

Looks like this one never got off the ground.
- Market Neutral Fund
- Less than 5 years old.
- 23.3 M AUM
- 2.85% ER
- Down 13% over past year
- Turnover 290%
Alternative investing is a tough row to hoe. Thanks for the post @TheShadow

I held PIMIX for years until 01/2018. Since then, it's not a top fund anymore.

I have tangled with a lot of legends in their own minds for decades now. Had diner with one trader (?) who claimed to be nearly omnipotent. He claimed to trade for a living and traded the stock index futures numerous time during the day and rarely lost. Quite a braggart was this guy. He posted these trades on his website in real time and they certainly looked good. Trouble is, in CFTC Docket # xx-xx it was discovered that this “super trader” as his friends liked to refer to him did not in fact even trade real money.
Then there is another “super trader” trader I knew who also liked to brag about his trading and how successful he was. He claimed he had been trading for a living for many years. He too posted a seemingly 100% winning trading record. But in CFTC Docket # xx-xx it was discovered that he had lost money trading for the previous six consecutive years.
I met another “super trader” at a seminar where I was a speaker. He was an attendee and at the time he told me how unsuccessful he had been as a trader with losses over $100,000. Less than a year later this fellow was out there bragging to everyone how he traded for a living and how successful he had been in the past. To add insult to injury many of his so called proprietary trading methods were lifted from my speech at the seminar. This fellow is still out there decades later bragging about his make believe trading prowess.
I could go on and on with multiple stories about the crooks, con men, and habitual liars that infest the trading and investing boards. They can be distinguished by their incessant non stop bragging about their trading/past trades and the fact none of them can ever back up any of their claims via real money trading statements. In the end that is all that counts. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof. Their most common retort for never providing real money trading statements is “ it’s none of your business”. Posting winning trades on some investment/trading board is in no way indicative of how successful someone is at trading real money at a real trading firm.
But does it really matter? Probably not. One of the biggest bragging liars out there who was sanctioned by the SEC for fabricating his trading record once wrote a book. That book more than any trading book I ever read on trading was the most influential of them all in turning around my trading back in the mid 80s.

NO. Please don’t “time“ my fund (PRPFX). “Hot money“ moving in and out harms us longer term investors. And the fund wasn’t designed for short term investing anyway. I don’t own Hussman. You can time him if you want. His HSTRX also holds gold and has ridden the surge in price. In addition, it was mentioned favorably in the latest edition of Mutual Fund Observer.
:)
(Above offered-up “tongue-in-cheek“)
Re PRPFX - I honestly think the word “permanent” in the name is important. The fund’s a hodgepodge of seemingly miscast (sometimes divergent) investments, designed with the idea that “every dog will have its day”. Held for decades, that tends to be true. Generally the fund exhibits “Steady-Eddy“ performance, except that due to the extreme volatility of precious metals it gets jerked around by that asset more than I would wish when gold and silver are overperforming or underperforming. In a gold bear market you can’t give this fund away. Seems like it’s hated by all. But after a couple years of rising metals prices (as we’ve had now) it looks alluring again. I shouldn’t gripe. I’ve played other funds for short term speculative purposes myself. So I’m being somewhat hypocritical here. But I really think many investors misunderstand PRPFX. Many leave unhappy after a bad experience - usually related to a downturn in the value of gold and silver.
Remarks not aimed at anyone in particular. Just for the benefit of those unfamiliar with the fund.
FWIW

IMO Schwab's StreetSmart Edge is lightyears behind TDAmeritrade's ThinkDesktop - plus their Mac 'version' feels like a quirky Java-based browser plugin that's nowhere as polished as ThinkDesktop. SSE reminds me of the hideous OptionsXpress active platform that repeatedly burned me 15 years ago and what led me to ThinkorSwim.
Until ThinkDesktop gets integrated into the Schwabverse, I'm going to grumble quietly b/c I would do all my stock/option buy/sells in that app versus the website. That said, I'm keeping some $$ at TDA both for account/record access and if I want to active trade or charting using my own indicators/scripts.

Former Schwab executive here. Trust me, Schwab's goal is to make money: that's a fact, not a criticism. There are many ways to attract clients in order to do that, including fair pricing, responsive customer service, and a superior online experience via the website and brokerage platform. Comparing, for example, Schwab's trading platform with that of Vanguard is an apples-to-oranges, 20th vs. 21st century undertaking. (How it compares to TDA's I don't know.) I'm sure Schwab feels it has already compensated the appropriate parties for its acquisition of TDA accounts. Of course there is a certain tension between Schwab's interests and those of its customers which is why it doesn't offer all of its services for free. That's in the nature of every business. I can't think of any prior Schwab acquisition that resulted in payments to acquired customers.

I decided to post about bonds since I have been reading about this subject so many times and for several years already.
The concept is "when rates rise, bonds are doomed".
So let's test it based on the past. The Fed raised the federal funds rate from 12/2015 at 0.25-0.50 to 12/2018 at 2.25-2.5%, see (link)
This looks like a pretty good possible scenario starting in 2-3 years. Let's see the effect on different fund categories from 12/31/2015 to 12/31/2018.
Below is a total performance for 3 years.
PIMIX (Multi sector) +18.75...PTIAX 14.3%
VWALX(HY Muni) +10.45...OPTAX(HY Muni) 16.7%...HYD(HY Muni index) 13.3%
MUNI (Investment grade Munis) +5.5%
BIV (all investment grade, 50% treasuries + 50% Corp) +6.7
VBTLX=BND (US tot bond index) +6.2%
VCIT (investment grade Corp) 9.15%...LQD (longer duration than VCIT, investment grade Corp) 9.3%
EIFAX (bank loan managed) 19.1%...BKLN(BL index) 10.9%
HYG (High yield) +18.5%
DODIX(core plus managed bond fund) +9.9%
VWIAX (conservative allocation about 40/60) +16.3%
So, every time you read or hear that rising rates is the end of the world please disregard it.
Bonds have a place for many investors portfolios, especially if you want to lower volatility.
If you don't care, whatever the reason then by all means, invest it all in stocks.

i guess these are all swipes in one way or another at fd and i do know at least one very successful forumite who uses him as a contrarian indicator. otoh, he's taught me a lot and offered takes on the investing scene that have made me money, esp in bonds. i've been reading his posts for years and while a bunch here doubt his trading claims, i've read many of them in real time and know them to be true. and verifiable, if you want to waste hours reading past posts.
it's all too easy to cast a bitter dismissive eye and so difficult to be a bit more generous, esp when your internal logic is flashing warning signals that are based on your own biases and experiences and have little to do with the facts at hand. i'm as guilty of that as anyone, and i don't follow FD's suggestions without lots of my own DD. and when the march meltdown hit some of his favorites harder than expected, well, what do you expect when the levee breaks on everything all at once and you've got no place to stay and crying won't help you and praying won't do you no good? i don't blame him for that, though i know a good many do. go figure.

I'm 80% moved from TDA > Schwab. They gave me 2 years of free options trades when I moved 200K. I wasn't looking for any bonus, but it was a nice touch. I should followup to see what they'll do for me now that I've moved significantly more over to them in recent days.

I think you can move to Schwab ahead of the transfer and get bonus $....I think it was posted here last month or so....or maybe M*?

@Sven

What is your next adventure after selling the house?

I bought a condo in FL (Palm Beach County) a few years back. Paid $35K in 2012 which was a good time to buy. It does have an HOA (that includes Cable, water, maintenance, building insurance, pools, tennis, guard house), but taxes are 1/10th of what I was paying for the house. I own the condo free and clear.
I have lowered my living expenses in half while multiplying almost every other aspect of my living conditions (especially nicer weather). Hot Humid Summers can last many months in South Florida so I plan on traveling during those months once travel normalizes.

“Assuming good faith in FD's reports of investing success ...“

Awe shucks. Don’t get me going ... I don’t believe any unsubstantiated claims of investing success posted here. And I’d strongly discourage folks making such unsubstantiated claims. That said, I know many here who have held good funds or invested with good houses for a great many years. It’s a given I’d think that they’ve enjoyed a modicum of success. Than there’s that eternally running “Buying/ Selling” thread. Conclusions could be drawn by tracking all the reported trades I suppose.
BTY: @Old_Joe ... I was thinking somebody should take it upon themselves to track all those reported buys and sells and than issue periodic reports on how the trades are faring ... Maybe publish reports for 1-month / 6-months / and 1-year out. If you’d like to volunteer I doubt you’ll have any competition. ;)
Bear in mind that simply buying a “winner” isn’t the whole story. What did you replace back than? Might it have actually performed better than the fund you bought?
Edit: I’ve changed “I don’t believe any claims of investing success posted here.”
TO “I don’t believe any unsubstantiated claims of investing success posted here.”

Had I rented instead of owned, my housing costs (average $1K / month over 35 years) would have been about $350K. So maybe...just maybe... "owning" (the bank owed the home most of the 35 years) my property was a break even proposition financially.

The realtors tell the buyers the opposite. We own a simple home in a good neighborhood and schools for our kids. Not the type who wants a palace.
What is your next adventure after selling the house?

Hmm ... I’ve always assumed there was some validity to technical charting & analysis. Einstein’s “spooky science“ might apply to it however. We had a great poster here for years named Flack who was well versed in T/A. I miss his posts. I’ll agree the “head and shoulders” / “bushy eyebrow” references seem a bit far-fetched and hilarious. To me, technical analysis means charting patterns in how various assets trade and attempting to draw rational conclusions and predictions from that.
Don’t we allude to tech analysis when referencing / displaying charts appearing to demonstrate “irrational exuberance” in some asset or market that’s in a “straight up” pattern - and than inferring (usually correctly) that the asset is in a bubble and likely to fall precipitously? Though I don’t much subscribe to T/A (the investing kind) I do enjoy listening to the practitioners and think it sometimes helps me better understand market climate. FWIW

U.S. Wind and Solar Installations-Trend May Not Last-I doubt that. Trillion $ companies are trying to become carbon neutral in 15-20 years. They don't rely on subsidies. Electric cars for the masses (Million Mile Battery) & new kid on the block Hydrogen - will be another one to watch for.

Don't sink too much into lithium. Or batteries. Or Tesla.
https://www.toyota.com/mirai/fcv.html

I was a professional student for most of the time, even into my 40s. That made the choice easy: no income. No house. The way I'm hard-wired, SIMPLICITY is a key priority. I lived in the family home for a few years after retirement. Mortgage was long ago paid. The crime (01108, I don't recommend it) drove me away sooner than we'd planned to leave. Lucky to have in-law cousins here. Mom (back East) is in a fancy stand-alone condo by a golf course. My step-father played. He's gone now, though. ...Great place, new. Open floor plan. But the condom (sic) assoc. monthly fees are absurd. ..... Anyone who BUYS in Hawaii these days is either stupid or foolish. EVERY politician running for election states that homelessness is a huge problem that must be addressed. AFFORDABLE housing is gone, just gone. That's true for renters, too. To buy a house here now would be to strap an albatross around your neck. Unless you're just filthy rich and don't care, and you can afford a waterfront home. On Oahu, lots are tiny. It's heaven, but it's crowded.

U.S. Wind and Solar Installations-Trend May Not Last-I doubt that. Trillion $ companies are trying to become carbon neutral in 15-20 years. They don't rely on subsidies. Electric cars for the masses (Million Mile Battery) & new kid on the block Hydrogen - will be another one to watch for.