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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The stock market is detached from economic reality. A reckoning is coming.
    @Crash: "Just how is it that Main Street and Wall Street are so very divorced from one another?"
    Is this a new thing? It's going on for decades. It's actually got better for main street because indexes + doing nothing worked so well. Wall St + other investment pros used to take more
    Wall St and many companies have been playing with the numbers for many years. Example: how come the new earnings beat the estimates at 70+% every time?
    What other choice do you have? Stay in cash/MM?
    BTW, I don't follow my generic advice, I'm a trader and retired. When I see elevated risk (VIX > 35 + others) I sell a big % of my portfolio but I don't recommend it to anybody.
    Another exception: I think the US market is the best long term market so just enjoy and invest. Many investors don't understand markets and think there is a high correlation between markets NOW to the economy, unemployment and others.
  • The stock market is detached from economic reality. A reckoning is coming.
    "the stock market and the economy is two very different thing" = correct
    "A reckoning is coming" investing based on predictions isn't recommended.
    Over the years we heard the following:
    1) US stocks are over value, the rest of the world is undervalue. US stocks did better in the last 10 years.
    2) The GMO team and Arnott have been wrong for 10 years.
    3) Gundlach was way wrong when he predicted the 10 year will be at 6% in 2021
    4) Bogle was wrong when he predicted stocks/bonds performance based on the past and averages.
    5) Inflation and interest rates can only go up. Both wrong for years.
    6) inverted yield signals recession = wrong. High PE, PE10 signal the end of the bull market...wrong again for years.
    7) There is no way stocks will have a V recovery in March 2020 based on blah, blah, whatever...and they did.
    8) The economy is bad, unemployment is high, the debt is huge = bad future stock market. The reality? Stocks are still up.
    9) If Trump will be elected, it will be a disaster. Reality? stocks were up
    10) New predictions a) The new president will be XXXX so do something now b) Covid-19 cases will be up c) China-US relations got worse
    The Fed successfully managed to do all the above and why many "experts" were wrong
    If you didn't get the message already, most investors should do nothing to very little. Predictions are a flipping coin. Some will be correct just because markets go sometimes down.
  • Old_Skeet's Market Barometer

    The armchairinvesting forum is what I stood up after leaving M* a few years ago (when lots of ppl there were peeved at the site) but then dropped doing anything with it b/c it wasn't taking off. So it's funny to see him posting there -it's a blast from the recent past.
  • PartnerSelect Smaller Companies Fund (I class) to be reorganized
    I stand corrected. How these smaller shops evolved in the last 20 years.
  • PartnerSelect Smaller Companies Fund (I class) to be reorganized
    Sometimes things weren't quite as we remember them. Stein Roe was acquired by Liberty (now Columbia), not by Strong. Dick Weiss did move from Stein Roe to Strong, but by switching funds, not by acquisition.
    Former Stein Roe employees say that when Richard Weiss, well-known manager of the Special Fund, failed to win support in 1991 for a new institutional equity product that would have capitalized on his existing fund's strong record, he jumped to Milwaukee-based Strong Funds and gathered nearly $2 billion in two years. Mr. Weiss was soon joined at Strong by promising Stein Roe manager Carlene Murphy Ziegler.
    https://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/19951021/ISSUE01/10008554/how-stein-roe-blew-it-once-a-big-name-now-an-also-ran
    FWIW, here's a post of mine on the convoluted path of acquisitions that ultimately led to Columbia Threadneedle. Stein Roe was acquired by Liberty, which was acquired by Fleet Boston, which already owned Columbia and rebranded some acquired funds; Fleet Boston (Columbia) was acquired by Bank of America, which sold its funds to Ameriprise.
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/51510/#Comment_51510
  • Old_Skeet's Market Barometer
    I would hope that we do not become distracted and lose sight of the fundamentally dishonest existence of this thread and it's corrosive influence on the long-observed rules of MFO.
    If Old Skeet is allowed to have two posting names and two posting "personalities" then we open the doors to anyone and everyone to do the same. I deeply resent the Trump administration's pernicious influence and wanton flouting of the rules that have allowed this country to maintain it's democracy for some two hundred and fifty years.
    Now one of that administration's advocates is attempting to operate in the same manner here on MFO. THIS SHOULD NOT BE ALLOWED TO STAND.

  • PartnerSelect Smaller Companies Fund (I class) to be reorganized
    Long time ago I invested with their Master Select International fund and left several years later. The concept of running a fund utilizing multiple "star" money mangers was interesting but there is no synergistic between between the stock picks.
    I recall the Master Select International fund.
    The fund's management lineup in the late 90s/early aughts included: Oakmark (David Herro);
    Janus (Helen Young Hayes); and Artisan (Mark Yockey).
    They were some of the most renowned international equity managers at the time.
    I never held MSILX but had invested in other funds run by these managers (OAKIX, JAOSX, ARTJX).
  • PartnerSelect Smaller Companies Fund (I class) to be reorganized
    Dick Weiss. Now that's a name I haven't heard in a long time. In the 90s (and somewhat beyond), he managed Strong Opportunity, a good midcap value fund. It became Wells Opportunity when Wells Fargo acquired Strong Funds.
    Here's a 1999 M* Fund Spy column with a few paragraphs in the middle about Weiss and the management of Strong Opportunity.
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1402/morningstar-fund-spy
    The industry pulls so many sleights of hand that one has to wonder about reorganizations that include some oddities. All the Litman Gregory Masters funds changed names just seven weeks ago to PartnerSelect. This reorganization is supposedly due in part to small size ($18.9M) but is a merger into an even smaller fund PFSVX ($9.9M).
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1020425/000168386320012117/f6483d1.htm
    That latter fund was formed just after the name change, and unlike the "Masters" funds, has only one submanagement company. It looks like it could be a shell fund designed for various purposes, including the stated purpose of carrying over losses from MSSFX and an unstated purpose of burying that fund's performance history.
    Perhaps Litman Gregory is moving away from the multi-manager concept (and poor records) and this is just the first step. MSEFX is a large cap fund with just $230M, a high ER (1.21%), and a miserable bottom 10% record over all time spans (from 1 month up to 15 years). Further, Dick Weiss, who is retiring, is this fund's only remaining original manager.
  • PartnerSelect Smaller Companies Fund (I class) to be reorganized
    Thought LITMAN GREGORY has gone to advisory only.
    Long time ago I invested with their Master Select International fund and left several years later. The concept of running a fund utilizing multiple "star" money mangers was interesting but there is no synergistic between between the stock picks. The end result of was higher level of volatility (than funds with a single manager/team) and offered very little downside protection during drawdown. I stayed with a total international index fund for awhile and slowly selected a few actively managed funds (slowly).
  • Defensive fund options
    This is from someone who as been playing defense for last 15-20 years. Been a while since I visited the site and for good reason.
    My answer to the question - Sell deep OTM options. Pay taxes. No one went broke paying taxes. The last 5 months have been the best of my investing life. Based on your risk tolerance level invest in index funds, then take half of your cash and try to earn income on it. Enough defense you will need IMO.
    I've been generating $500 consistently with $20000 in my Vanguard account without ANY trouble every month. That's a 2.5% return per month. That's 30% a year. Pay taxes.
  • "Off-Topic" previously "Off Limits"... now "back in service".
    While I think a break is necessary, it's important to remember Old_Skeet's and then FD1000's goal was to silence political discussions by trolling the site with ones from dubious rightwing sources. So effectively they've won. They had no real interest in having any rational discussions on these subjects, and these discussions had gone on for years without any site overload until now. I do think if Off Topic is reinstated, the noise will die down after the election.
    I would add this troll data-dump strategy is commonplace in the corporate world. If any individual tries to sue a company, instead of withholding information companies often will send over a hundred boxes of nonsense info to weed through or try to tie the case up in court through appeals, knowing plaintiffs don't have the resources to continue fighting. It is a way of silencing any opposition.
    To me silence is not apolitical. If you see a man bleeding on the street and you do nothing, you are suffering from depraved indifference. Issues like climate change, taxation, Fed policy and government regulation have a direct impact on investing yet are also political ones. Saying we're not going to discuss those and only focus on making money in the markets is tacit approval of whatever the status quo is. That status quo is a libertarian "I wanna make money any way I can and I don't care about the consequences" one.
  • Mutual Fund Observer, September
    Nuts. Lost my (draft) note to VF. (sigh) I'll try again.
    Hi!
    Mr. O. didn't run POGSX 20 years ago. When he came onboard, he began moderating its aggressiveness and ended up outperforming the S&P 500 pretty substantially. ($10K grew to about $30K with him and $25K with the S&P 500 during his stint at POGSX.) I have no idea of why he left Oak Associates, through that difference of styles might have had some relevance. In any case, it's a LCV with cash for now.
    Mr. C. got killed in 2000-02. I think he learned from the experience. The SEC permitted Osterweis to include his private partnership in the fund's prospectus, so there's about a 10 year record with about 200 bps of annual outperformance. It does not appear that the returns reflect excessive risk; standard deviation is a bit high, but all of the other measures of risk and risk-adjusted returns are at or below average.
    As always, the goal is not to flog a fund - in either the positive or negative sense - just to be sure we're willing to look at places that we'd normally write off without much examination.
    Cheers, David
  • Mutual Fund Observer, September
    I see PVMCX and TMSRX, both funds I own now, the latter for my MIL, the former after taking tax loss in PVFIX.
    I am appalled Oelschlager and Callinan can still point to their records when it is clear they can ONLY make money in one kind of market. One that simply lets you throw darts at the index. Food for thought, imagine you had invested in POGSX 20 years back. Please go and see how much money you would have today. Some track record.
  • Defensive fund options
    I have owned MERFX and ARBIX for years
    They haven't done much at all. Total position is up 6% since 1/2019
  • Tylenol, balloons and bubbles
    You can get bunch of agents that makes cars smell good and these also has amount of addictive stimulants in them;
    We drive our car so infrequently that after three years it still has that "new car smell". So now I know why we so much look forward to our monthly excursions to Costco. :-)
    Is the "New Car Smell" Toxic For You
    https://www.motorbiscuit.com/is-the-new-car-smell-toxic-for-you/
  • Any news that prompted the market turnaround?
    Don't get to excited , futures down as 9:30 P.M.
    Derf
    Your comment has me wondering how many people here are trading versus how many are buying some sort of fund for a longer time period
    Awe shucks. I don’t see many playing a short game. A lot of us like to watch the action. Many, self included, have a predominately long term allocation we leave alone and also enjoy playing around the edges on occasion with maybe 5 or 10%. Frankly, when invested with fund houses in their products (as I am) there’s some pretty serious constraints on frequent trading - some stricter than others. So any attempt to do some fast in and out trading would hit a dead-end pretty fast.
    In an era of practically 0 return on cash, and little more on intermediate investment grade paper, if you can pocket a bit extra now and than making some smart short term bets, I see nothing wrong with it. I mean ... a one-day gain of 3% on a stock, ETF or mutual fund is a whole lot more than what that cash would generate over several years.
    I’m sure there are some traders here. Just don’t think it’s a substantial number.
  • Any news that prompted the market turnaround?
    No significant news other than tech sector rebounded. AstroZenneca vaccine testing paused due to a side effect found in one patient. but According to Dr. Fauci that case is not unusual at this stage of human testing. Data are being reviewed at the moment. Phase III testing takes time to completed. Typically vaccines in the past took over 10 years to reach commerization. This COVID vaccines are moving at incredibly pace.
  • Fund Spy: A Brave New Bond World
    When I decided I was supposed to take all the good advice and have more bond funds, because it's ballast and all, I definitely looked for lower durations.
    Your post got me looking at my bond funds today. Some of them have gotten longer, and slopped into BBB. DODIX is up to five years and now BBB. Might be time to take some profits and flip to something like FTHRX. Still A. Still 4.04.
    I do have exposure to longer durations through old Wellington and Wellesley holdings.
  • Mid Cap Value Funds
    If you play with this chart:.......FLPSX,IJH,NAESX.....
    https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?FLPSX,IJH,NAESX
    FLPSX performed well PRIOR to 2005 but after that, for the last 15 years, it has been an index hugger.
    You may want to correct the embedded link to stockcharts, as I've done above.
    That aside, the annual differences in performance between FLPSX and NAESX over the past 10 years, per M* are:
    2010: -7.02% (FLPSX underperformed)
    2011: 2.75%
    2012: 0.45%
    2013: -3.30%
    2014: 0.29%
    2015: 3.22%
    2016: -9.39%
    2017: 4.57%
    2018: -1.32%
    2019: -1.55%
    2020 YTD: -2.61%
    Portfolio Visualizer shows correlation dipping after 2014. Click on the Rolling Correlation tab for the graph showing this divergence.
    https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-correlations?s=y&symbols=FLPSX,NAESX,IJH&startDate=01/01/2005&timePeriod=2&tradingDays=60&months=36
    FWIW, M* classified FLPSX as midcap blend 2010-2013, and midcap value 2014 to the present.
  • This 50-year-old Vanguard mutual fund is holding its own against younger rivals
    Check the duration on the bond sleeve and see if you feel comfortable with that going forward.
    If the Fed is successful in raising the inflation rate will interest rates rise as well?
    I don't plan to sell out. But I do take profits out every few year to put elsewhere.

    Let me know when you see inflation. They are talking about it for several years while high tech is taking over and it will increase and this time it will take away higher paying jobs. The people who keep their salaries upgraded are the STEM ones.
    Price competition decrease margins too. All I need is to google something I want to buy and find the best price online which means more actual stores will lose.
    I'll raise my right hand. ;-)
    As I've mentioned elsewhere, I think the central bankers are scared to death of deflation. But you never know.