I used to own QRSVX for several years and then I sold it, Now, I will own it again (as I own FPPTX) except it will the institutional shares. When Robert Rodriguez managed FPPTX, it did pretty well. Once he was promoted, the fund went down hill. FPA kept the fund closed to limit the outflow, but after years of sub-par performance, many of the investors liquidated their positions.

I see the US market really "priced for perfection" and to stay up a lot of things have to go right.
I think only about a third of the SP stocks are up for the year and most of the gains are FAANMG. Consequently if anything happens to get people to stop paying 50 to 300 times earnings for these things, it will be all downhill.
The market is up because 1) Federal reserve says it keep rates at zero for years, therefore increasing the market multiple ( currently at dot.com levels) 2) Stimulus bill kept consumer buying up 3) Belief that an effective vaccine is soon to come
For this to continue we have to see
1) Earnings meet the baked in assumptions of $165 S&P 500 2021 earnings
and $185 2022
2) No delayed, double-dip recession ie no resurgence of Covid this fall with the flu. I think this requires a vaccine that is at least 70% effective and most people get it. This is unlikely by December. Still it will be years before Hotels and airplanes are back at 2019 levels.
3) Low inflation and continued Fed easy easy money. What if they finally wise up to the fact that zero interest rates do not increase employment, just inflate stock prices, leaving millions in the dust ? Look at "taper tantrum"
4) No major second Black Swan. Candidates shooting war in China, massive defaults in Chinese banking system ( all very possible) or something totally unexpected ie 9.0 earthquake Major hack taking down electrical grid etc etc
5) Major fight over close election with Trump getting support form the military to stay in office and blood in the streets, or military having to remove him in shooting war with right wing nuts

“The concern even ahead of this announcement from Powell is how they are going to be able to credibly achieve the 2% inflation averaging given for years they haven’t been able to achieve 2% on a consistent basis,” Rajappa said.

Drop lots of Jacksons from airplanes.

Yield’s getting harder this year. Unless you can stand volatility via leverage perhaps in a CEF or something like XOM or XLE.

PIMIX is significantly leveraged as well. Over half the ER, 0.59% out of 1.09%, goes toward paying interest (per summary prospectus).
Borrowing securities rather than cash is another way to achieve leverage. In round figures, the fund is 2x long and 1x short in bonds (see M* portfolio page). (Contrast that with PDIIX, which doesn't short bonds, but gets its 133% net bond holdings by only borrowing cash.)
PIMCO funds in general make extensive use of derivatives. While derivatives can be used defensively, my sense is that PIMCO uses them aggressively, further increasing effective leverage. Though with PIMCO, it is always difficult to tell what they're doing.
Regarding what PIMCO is doing, I recently ran across this analysis of PIMIX. It takes an approach similar to what S&P does in analyzing mutual funds for its individual fund reports (or did, the last time I could find them years ago). It looks at how the fund behaves, regardless of what it actually holds. It tries to disentangle the different factors by accounting for the correlations among them ("multicollinearity").
https://www.markovprocesses.com/blog/solving-2019-pimco-income-fund-puzzle/
However, it says little about derivatives, other than they're hard to deal with directly:

Pretty much all of the top holdings are either futures or swaps. Fund data and research providers, like Morningstar, as well as most institutional investors, are not capable of netting those swap positions against thousands of bonds, some of which are not easily priced. It is worth noting that the sum of top 10 derivatives positions is negative 32% and, on top of that, the fund turns over its entire portfolio every other month (472% turnover), rendering intermittently disclosed holdings snapshots useless.

Like clockwork this week, as soon as the New York trading session has gotten underway, 30-year Treasuries have jumped.
Despite barely budging during the Asia and London trading sessions -- home to some of the bigger buyers of longer-dated Treasuries -- 30-year yields have dropped an average of five basis points each day this week between 7 a.m. and noon New York time.

A Red-Hot Treasury Trade Starts to Unwind Every New York Morning
traders-betting-on-steeper-treasury-curve-cash-out-in-new-york
and,

The Treasury yield curve steepened to the widest in two months after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced a shift to a more relaxed approach on inflation.
Powell said Thursday that the central bank will seek inflation that averages 2% over time, a level officials have failed to attain consistently in recent years. He said the move reflects “our appreciation for the benefits of a strong labor market, particularly for many in low- and moderate-income communities.”

Bond Traders See ‘Green Light’ to Keep Driving the Curve Steeper
treasury-curve-steepens-as-powell-announces-new-inflation-tactic

Rickrmf - option income in CC-type funds typically are classified as ROC, which makes it confusing since that's not considered a 'bad' return of capital. I think you know that many CEFs or MLPs that use ROC to sustain high divs/distributions -- that is 'bad' ROC and a red flag if it's an ongoing thing.
SWAN is interesting[1], and tbh NUSI also looks interesting to me for income-oriented NASDAQ exposure, and I might play with that a bit.
THLGX mentioned in this month's Commentary (the Alternate Funds discussion - it's in the charts) looks really interesting in terms of performance and stability, but I need to do add'l research on it before considering it as a SWAN-y holding. Doesn't seem to have lost much if anything in recent years' volatility and looed to have done better than SWAN (albeit at a higher price.)
[1] You could roll the same thing on your own if you wanted to, as its holdings aren't many and are easy to get: https://amplifyetfs.com/swan-holdings.html

Hi Rforno, yes, very I’m intrigued by NUSI, also DRSK. I think the focus articles on TMSRX make it attractive too. Any thoughts on best fit for a taxable account(not looking for income)? I’m having trouble understanding how options distributions are characterized. So far, I’m happy with SWAN.
Best of luck,
Rick

Howdy expatsp/all,
You pretty much list the biggies. However, I see some of these as givens.
1. The vaccine 'promise' won't matter because at this point, not enough people are going to take it. feh. Wifey and I got our flu shots day before yesterday, but I won't get a Covid-19 shot at least until fall of 2021 and maybe not then. I no longer trust anything coming out of Washington and the FDA. Any vaccine they approve will be on a scale with injecting rat poison or drinking bleach. I did hear someone suggest paying Americans $1000 each to get the shot and this is actually a very good idea. You get immunization AND stimulate Aggregate Demand.
2. 2nd Wave is a given because we're so damn dumb and with gridlock in DC, I see nothing in the way of additional stimulus.
3. Nancy becomes President on January 21. Seriously, you know damn good and well, that Trump is going to have to be cuffed and physically removed from the White House. Sorry, but I see blood in the streets. Let me be perfectly clear, it's been 52 years since Vietnam and I finally had to go buy a GD gun. I had to arm TF up and I'm not happy about it. And not because of ANTIFA, but because of the militias and nazi groups running around playing GI Joe. These scum are too stupid to become Police Officers and too chicken shit to enlist. It's time to disarm them and the rest of the country. Ban all assault weapons, high capacity magazines and silencers. Do it state by state by referendum and city by city. Oh, and start with the schools. If government buildings can be gun free, why not the children in school?
4. Eventually the dollars' reserve status goes away but maybe not in the immediate future.
5. feh. Liz Warren is our best hope at the Treasury.
6. Nope. They'll keep pumping air in the the balloon that's full of holes and until #4 comes to pass.
and 7. Something bad happening. The Black Swan event that we're not aware of yet. How about war with China? Trump is desperate and when an animal is cornered they can be very dangerous.
That all said, congratulations to all of you that have figured a way to ride this bull and make some money. A lot of money has been made. NOW PROTECT IT.
and so it goes,
peace and wear the damn mask,
rono

“ For the bears... what might trigger the correction?”
I’d take exception to the wording. Of course, any market can “correct” (financial stocks, technology, emerging markets, gold, real estate). Let’s assume you are talking about the broad U.S. stock market as represented by the S&P 500 and other indexes. One need not be a bear to expect a stock market correction at some point. They are healthy and necessary to efficiently functioning markets. And, “correction” should not be confused with “crash”. The former tends to be quite temporary. The latter can set investors back for several years.
This question is nearly impossible to address. I don’t worry about corrections. Some markets saw a 30% correction only a few months ago. It turned out to be a good buying opportunity. A “crash” is an entirely different matter. It can result in sector losses of 50% or greater, grind on for years (occasionally decades) , and seriously damage many investors. Crashes tend to cause significant changes in investor psyche and this alone becomes a factor in how valuations are perceived.
What might cause a crash?
- Interest rates across the spectrum rising.
- Reactionary belt-tightening by Congress and the Executive branch - a slashing of federal spending combined with higher taxes (highly unlikely in a Pres. election year).

Hi, guys.
We posted our September issue late on the evening of September 1st, as usual, but decided to delay this announcement until this morning. We were thinking that you’d rather get the reminder when you were fresh in the morning, rather than late at night. As Derf notes in a separate thread, I'd be curious to hear folks reflection on the decision.
My publisher’s letter celebrated the start of the college year, my Propaganda class, the propaganda that you’re being bombarded with, the rising influence of frantically trading young stock investors (uhh, 20-25% of daily volume!), strategies to consider for managing a weak dollar environment and a sort of buyers guide for face masks. It’s a fairly busy missive.
We face uncertain times, and so we shared stories of three funds whose managers have seen many years and many market adventures. They seem like the sorts of people you’d want at the helm just about now.

• Jim Callinan manages the five-star Osterweis Emerging Opportunities Fund (OSTGX) now, but his career encompasses the frantic '90s and a Morningstar manager of the year award. We profile the fund.
  
• Eric Cinnamond and Jayme Wiggins manage one of the two top-performing small value funds, Palm Valley Capital Fund (PVCMX), up 15% YTD which is about 30% above their peers. That success shouldn’t surprise anyone who’s been following their absolute-value strategy back 20 years. Palm Valley just became available through TD Ameritrade. We explain why I just added PVCMX to my portfolio.
  
• Mark Oelschlager managed the very fine Pin Oak Equity Fund (POGSX) until he and Tina struck out on their own. They’re now replicating his Pin Oak strategy in their new all-cap Towpath Focus Fund (TOWFX). We share a belated Launch Alert of the youngster.

I think a conversation between the three would be fascinating if only because their views of the markets and investing are so dramatically different.
Complementing those individual fund-focused pieces, both Lynn Bolin and I take on the question of alternative funds that are demonstrably worth keeping around. Lynn’s piece is the broader of the two, “Alternative and Global Funds during a Global Recession.” I stuck close to my knitting with “The Long (and Short) of It: Top-Tier Long-Short Options" and starts with a short eye-roll in response to the WSJ observation that "most" long-short funds are a disappointment. (Duh.)
Ed Studzinski offers a surprising recommendation of “Where Not to Invest.” Hint: he’s not worrying you about stocks.
Charles Boccadoro takes inspiration from Warren Buffett’s recent comments about the meaning of "long-term".
In a mini-T. Rowe Price fest, I explain the decision to add T. Rowe Price Multi-Strategy Total Return (TMSRX) to my portfolio and we offer a Launch Alert for the active, low-cost ETF version of four of T. Rowe Price’s large-cap funds.
And, as always, Chip’s compendium of manager changes, plus funds in reg (Dodge & Cox is about to hit the emerging markets and T Rowe Price is launching active ETF versions of huge funds), liquidations, and other industry news.

Why am I offering to do free reviews of investors' portfolios? Of course, everything about my site is free. But the reason is this: many of my readers are pretty uncertain as to how they should proceed. They need personal advice but don't perhaps feel comfortable getting it from a paid advisor. Many have learned to trust me down through the years from reading my Newsletter. This is the best way I can help people and to give back to people from all I have learned over a very long period of studying mutual funds.

“Investor: I am 69 years old and consider myself a moderate risk investor. About 80% of my portfolio is in stocks/stock funds, 17% is in bonds, and 3% in cash.”
Hmmm .... Suppose some of this depends on what specific stock funds are owned. But, by what standard is 80% in equities considered a moderate risk allocation?
Interestingly, Mandell’s main recommendations are to go to a 65/35 portfolio and try to eliminate sector duplication in the portfolio by eliminating overlapping funds. Geez - I hope he doesn’t change people money for such lame advice.

Wellstrade ( Wells Fargo) sent me a letter last month discontinuing the free 100 yearly trades of TF funds ,promised ,when I opened the account 13 years ago. So that kept me in their fold even with all the shenanagans going on, which never affected me. Now all TF fund buys and sells will be $35. Their platform of NTF funds is small compared to the other big guys. So now they get the finger and my account which is very, very large is going to Firstrade in which ALL trades and ALL 11,000 funds are traded FREE. This includes all Vanguard funds including Admiral class. I hope someone at Wellstrade sees this. The customer service is ok if you get a USA based CSR.. The site is easy to work and trade on. The company and management stinks as most know, by now. This is not a time that a brokerage should be reneging on its promises with all the competition out there. But from Wells Fargo not unexpected. Good riddance to Wellstrade!!

Big fan of firstrade. Website is simple but it works fine. Also, once in a while you can snag institutional shares of mutual funds at low minimums and NTF.

Much to think about here. Includes some investment ideas....

Today’s low bond yields, which are without precedent in U.S. history, create several challenges for investors. Three crucial ones for investors to contemplate are: how can we replace the income that bonds used to supply; how can we adapt portfolios for the loss of depression protection that comes from bond yields having little or no room to fall; and how can we protect our portfolios from the risk of rising inflation and rising interest rates? Each of these challenges is unique and requires a different playbook than what we have used over the last 30 years. They will also require more dynamic allocation between the opportunity sets. We will take you through each of these issues and propose portfolio solutions to help adapt portfolios to today’s anemic interest rate environment.

https://gmo.com/americas/research-library/2q-2020-gmo-quarterly-letter/

Wellstrade has one of the highest closeout fee around, $95. So it's a good thing that Firstrade covers those fees up to $200. I got so fed up with Wellstrade that, free trades and all, I left them years ago.
Remember Scottrade? Or before that Scudder Retirement Plus? Like Wellstrade, for a number of years they let you trade all funds without fees. I expect Firstrade to drop this feature also at some point, though that could be a decade or more off.
OTOH, I expect Vanguard Flagship level ($1M+) to keep free mutual fund trades around indefinitely. Vanguard has deeper pockets and its program is different. To qualify, customers must invest a large amount of money in Vanguard funds. That gives Vanguard a revenue stream that Firstrade doesn't get when you invest through them in third party funds.
Vanguard has not only maintained this perk, but has increased its value over time. Originally you received 8 free trades per year, counting not only TF fund trades but equity trades. Vanguard raised the number to 25. Then early this year it eliminated commissions on equity trades, ensuring that all 25 free trades were applied to your TF fund transactions.
There's a lot I'll criticize Vanguard for, and I have, but investing in funds (not stocks, not ETFs) on its brokerage platform is not one of them. The platform is bare bones, but simple to use for this basic task. Now if you want to talk customer service, trading tools, etc., that's a whole 'nother kettle of fish.

Wellstrade ( Wells Fargo) sent me a letter last month discontinuing the free 100 yearly trades of TF funds ,promised ,when I opened the account 13 years ago. So that kept me in their fold even with all the shenanagans going on, which never affected me. Now all TF fund buys and sells will be $35. Their platform of NTF funds is small compared to the other big guys. So now they get the finger and my account which is very, very large is going to Firstrade in which ALL trades and ALL 11,000 funds are traded FREE. This includes all Vanguard funds including Admiral class. I hope someone at Wellstrade sees this. The customer service is ok if you get a USA based CSR.. The site is easy to work and trade on. The company and management stinks as most know, by now. This is not a time that a brokerage should be reneging on its promises with all the competition out there. But from Wells Fargo not unexpected. Good riddance to Wellstrade!!

I thought you could only get Admiral Class shares at Vanguard.

Wellstrade ( Wells Fargo) sent me a letter last month discontinuing the free 100 yearly trades of TF funds ,promised ,when I opened the account 13 years ago. So that kept me in their fold even with all the shenanagans going on, which never affected me. Now all TF fund buys and sells will be $35. Their platform of NTF funds is small compared to the other big guys. So now they get the finger and my account which is very, very large is going to Firstrade in which ALL trades and ALL 11,000 funds are traded FREE. This includes all Vanguard funds including Admiral class. I hope someone at Wellstrade sees this. The customer service is ok if you get a USA based CSR.. The site is easy to work and trade on. The company and management stinks as most know, by now. This is not a time that a brokerage should be reneging on its promises with all the competition out there. But from Wells Fargo not unexpected. Good riddance to Wellstrade!!

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-stocks-aug-31-2020
S&P 500 fights for best 5-month stretch since 1938 as Apple, Tesla split
U.S. equity markets were little changed on Monday and on track to wrap up their best month since April. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 52 points, or 0.18%, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite were higher by 0.01% and 0.16%, respectively. All three of the major averages look to be on track for a fifth straight month of gains and are looking at their best five-month stretch in years
We are +7.4% YTD...glad did not pull out completely in March 20
Will trend continue at end summer/fall, nobody know

If Vanguard did not have the well-managed funds in which I have invested for many years, I would have moved my money elsewhere. Their customer service has gone steadily downhill. There is a disconnect between how the actual fund managers behave (very well indeed) and how Vanguard treats customers (not well at all).

@Old_Skeet: After using your inputs to come up with a barometer reading have you over the years run into the situation that the S&P is in now . That would be with the FAANGS carrying so much weight ? Is it possible to fine tune the barometer for this over weighting ?
Thanks, Derf

T Rowe Price Emerging Markets Corporate Bond (TRECX)
Just noticed this one in their stable. Bit of a mystery. While they seek “high current income”, the average maturity is in excess of 5 years - not exactly a “safe” or low volatility bond fund. I do like that Lipper has it ranked near the top of the stack and M* gives it 5 stars. I haven’t had time to read the prospectus, but my guess is they hedge quite a bit against currency flux with this one. Wonder how it compares to their PREMX (hedged) and PRELX unhedged EM bond funds. It’s currently in a funk, which appears to happen in roughly alternating 1-2 year periods.