Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • BONDS AAA, a bit twitchy this past week; Update AUG 28
    Thanks Catch. Based on my few bond holdings, the mid-grade (AA/BBB) corporate stuff a bit out on the curve (5+ years) got whacked a bit due to uptick in rates. Shorter term stuff (1-3 years) seemed to hold up better. Foreign (investment grade) bonds held up better. Perhaps the dollar fell some more. The good news is, as bond prices fall yields usually rise. Leon Cooperman, whom I posted last week, calls bonds today “return free risk.” But as for risk ... it’s more than just bonds IMHO.
  • IOFIX/IOAFX Distributions
    A little internet poking turned this up this comment from turbotax.....
    Thanks to a law passed in 2008, taxpayers receive help keeping track of their tax basis. The law requires brokers to track the basis of specified securities (including stocks and mutual fund shares) purchased in 2011 and later years, and report the basis amounts to investors (and the IRS) when the securities are sold. Congress didn’t impose this requirement just to be nice; the lawmakers hope that basis reporting will lead to more profit being reported and more taxes being collected. As stated, however, the new basis reporting rules which are phased-in over three years only apply to specified securities that are acquired in 2011 and beyond.
    https://turbotax.intuit.com/tax-tips/rental-property/cost-basis-tracking-your-tax-basis/L4i1f9qB1
  • IOFIX/IOAFX Distributions
    Here are a couple of earlier Section 19a docs for the fund: March and April. There may be others.
    As @Vegomatic posted in another thread, sometimes these interim classifications of distributions change before getting to the official 1099-DIV.
    That said, I noticed that 97% of IOFIX's securities are floating rate. Years ago, I owned a fund that invested in agency ARMs. Almost a quarter of the distributions I received that year was ROC. There may be something inherent in these securities that creates ROC. Just an observation, I'm not digging into it.
    The ROC shows up on your 1099-DIV in Box 3 (nondividend distributions). This is pretty basic, and not uncommon for closed end fund with managed distributions. So all tax software should handle it.
    There is a quirk with ROC. As noted, this reduces your cost basis. If your cost basis drops to zero, any additional ROC is treated as capital gains.
    https://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc404
    If your shares are "covered" Schwab is required to keep track of your cost basis. I believe that it is required to incorporate the effect of return of capital when reporting your cost basis (i.e. it should track this correctly). However, the ultimate responsibility for keeping track is yours, regardless of what Schwab reports.
  • Favorite International Stock Funds

    MikeW: FYI
    My favorite fund is MIOPX which is managed by Kristen Heugh. This is a strong international fund with broad exposure to Europe as well as emerging markets. Ben suggested their global fund which is also excellent. If you run the numbers you'll see that it consistently outperforms all other funds internationally over 3, 5, and 7 years. In a down market it will get hit, but it actually held up well in March this year
    Morgan Stanley Institutional International Opportunity / MIOIX was mentioned in today's Barron's Daily Roundup (aftermarket), viz., "These 7 Funds Beat the Market Without Owning the FAAMG Stocks":
    The $3 billion Morgan Stanley Institutional International Opportunity fund (MIOIX) holds stocks from around the globe, including Chinese education-tech firm TAL Education Group ADR, food-delivery company Meituan Dianping (3690.Hong Kong), and HDFC Bank (HDB) from India.
    Total return YTD through 8/26 = 33.0%
  • Any great spec ideas?
    Thanks @BemWP. Spot on. I’ve got enough other “addictions“ without playing individual stocks and ETFs. A conscious decision made years back to protect me from myself. Every once in a while, however, I’ll spot a mutual fund at one of the houses where I invest that’s off 30, 40, 50% over the past 12 months and I’ll buy a little. Usually plan to hold no longer than 3-6 months. Works most of the time for a quick gain.
    I guess like everybody else, I’m looking for niche plays to add a bit of return in this extremely low interest rate environment. And the macros look compelling with the Fed throwing money at the system and the Administration goosing markets as much as they can for the election. If all that isn’t enough, there’s speculative fever in the air and a tendency to want to jump on the bandwagon!
  • Don’t settle for skimpy bond yields and make dividend stocks your best income play, fixed-income vet
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-settle-for-skimpy-bond-yields-and-make-dividend-stocks-your-best-income-play-fixed-income-veteran-says-2020-08-27
    Don’t settle for skimpy bond yields and make dividend stocks your best income play, fixed-income veteran says
    The fixed-income market ‘is as much of a challenge as I have seen in 41 years,’ says Dan Genter, CEO of RNC Genter Capital Management
    Bonds and treasuries mm yields are in the toilets....not many options left
    What else are you folks doing? More junk and prefered???
    We did buy/add more BAC PREFERRED few days, maybe good play medium long terms
    (BAC.PRA)
    Pff
    Jnk
  • Favorite International Stock Funds
    I find it interesting from a psychological perspective that the one fund I recommended that is hot right now VWIGX is the one many MFOrs are interested in while the two value ones I mentioned that are also good funds in their categories--QUSOX and HFQTX-- but their categories are not in favor right now are overlooked. Investors tend to chase performance to their detriment, yet it is more complicated that that. Short-term 12-month or one-moth momentum in funds tends to persist while long-term outperformance doesn't and actually the opposite is the case. You want to buy the best funds --or perhaps the lowest cost funds--in the categories that underperformed in the last three to five years. Click here: https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2018/09/03/chasing-mutual-fund-performance-follow-the-momentum/ Yet no matter what I do or say, for as long as I've been on this board most posters have always been talking about what's hot right now and generally overlooked the contrarian play. All of that said, I think VWIGX is good for its category, and fees always matter in every category--a lot--and VWIGX has very low fees for an active fund.
  • GLD: Next Buying Opportunity In About 6 Weeks' Time
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4371007-gld-next-buying-opportunity-in-6-weeks-time
    GLD: Next Buying Opportunity In About 6 Weeks' Time
    Aug. 26, 2020 10:35 PMSPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)
    Summary
    Gold is trying to confirm its daily cycle low.
    We are on week 24 of the intermediate cycle.
    The momentum of the yearly cycle and 8-year cycle should mean we have a couple of years left in this bull market.
    We did added more gold recently [both physicals gold silvers also from AMPEX.COM and GLD]. think could be more gas left in the tank especially Feds keep pumping more money and central banks around the world keep borrowing to keep their economies afloat.
  • Any great spec ideas?
    sma3 said: Eventually things will get back to normal and there will be a huge pop when there is a successful vaccine announcement although it will be years before it controls covid,, I think .
    If so , that maybe the time to take some profit. As / myself , I think market has been over priced for to many years. With all the QE & money drops it's hard to figure Mr. Market !
    Stay Safe, Derf
  • Any great spec ideas?
    I am in the same boat, although just retired so very wary about starting retirement with a 30% loss if things go south. I am widely diversified but have only about 20 to 25% in equities; mostly cash.
    It will not take much inflation to crater all but the shortest bond funds, and there is very little difference in the yield as duration goes up. That would imply shorting junk bonds which you can do with ETFs
    The dollar has dropped significantly so will probably rebound soon but unless the US gets it's house in order I think it will continue down, making the case for some Gold and Commodities.
    I think some EM are doing far better than we are with Covid, but their economies are so linked to ours you need to know more than I do to pick winners. China clearly seems to have controlled Covid but I do not trust their accounting and think there still may be real danger of a major debt induced crash there.
    Much of the current reports out of major brokerages recommend hedges and puts, strategies which I have yet to figure out but there are ETFs that have done a pretty good job with them like TAIL
    You could also play the Covid recovery with JETS and other ETFs or funds loaded with aerospace, cruise lines restaurants and hotels. Eventually things will get back to normal and there will be a huge pop when there is a successful vaccine announcement although it will be years before it controls covid,, I think
  • Any great spec ideas?
    Thanks. Yes. Hard to sit when you enjoy the game plus have some dry powder to play around with. My metrics are obviously the reverse of momentum investing. For short-intermediate term spec, I look for things that have done very poorly for several years and have really flopped the past 12 months. But which “under the hood” appear solid longer term investments. Scanned Price’s historical performance yesterday and found I already hold the “best of the worst.” Those are PRLAX and PRNEX - both have begun to come alive but still deeply submerged.
    Not talking about core investments, just play money. I’m forever influenced by Bogle’s “reversion to the mean” and also a comment by Sir John Templeton about 30 years ago that “very rarely’” does a market go down more than 50% from its high and stay there for long. However, that’s a rule of thumb - not a fact. Japan has disproven him to some extent. Very narrow markets like gold and silver have also had no problem diving more than 50% from peak in the past. And than, there was the “tech wreck” around 2000.
    On the shopping list are some EM equity and bond markets, formerly fine international funds like DODFX, and real estate funds. None appear badly enough beaten up at this point to dive in. My cash is at a relatively low 10%. Everything else is in some type of more aggressive investment, be it income producing, commodity related or diversified equity. Part of me wants to lower exposure to balanced funds and increase more “pure” equity due to the present “return-free“ nature of most investment grade bonds. But, that might be akin to jumping from the pot into the fire.
    Thanks for your input.
  • Disciplined Growth Investors Fund (DGIFX)
    David: I came across this fund some years ago, considered owning it, but then chose an alternative. Since then, I haven't followed it. Here's an article from 2018 at the Star Tribune, Mpls.
    https://www.startribune.com/minneapolis-mutual-fund-manager-disciplined-growth-investors-aims-to-attract-clients-directly/474114633/
  • Favorite International Stock Funds
    I personally don't have any international investments at this time. However, in the August AAII Journal MATFX is the top international "fund" YTD and for 2019. It ranks second over the past five years!
  • Leon Cooperman - Fed Created Speculative Bubble / Bloomberg Interview
    David,
    Are you advocating MMT? I don’t think the country should have a balanced budget but if interest rates rise, servicing the debt will take a bigger and bigger slice of the pie. I know you’ll say we are paying ourselves - but that doesn’t include foreign held Treasuries. Additionally, servicing the debt is just another transfer scheme. Taxpayers pay in, bondholders take out - the 2 groups probably overlap, but they are not one in the same.
    Consider the following:
    National debt as a share of the economy will reach a record next year, reaching 108% of gross domestic product — more than the 106% milestone we hit just after World War II. As things stand right now, debt will hit 121% GDP by 2030 and a staggering 220% of GDP by 2050. Deficits of this size will take years to rein in, so the sooner we start thinking about how to change the trajectory of our budget, the better.
    @Rbrt ---
    There probably are points where the debt/gdp ratio tips and alone all by itself there is really bad outcome from it, but I have not read that anyone knows where those tipping point ranges even are. As you probably have read, the WW2 deficit was never 'reined in'.
    The key key key point is what the borrowing is spent on, investment and disaster relief and so on, improvements, or on services cuts and transfers to the already rich and corporations.
  • Palm Valley Capital at TD Ameritrade
    Hi, guys.
    For what interest it holds, Palm Valley Capital is now available through TD Ameritrade. I assume that it will be added to the Schwab list soon, given the acquisition of TD by Schwab. The advisor is still working on Fidelity.
    $11.7 million, with modest but steady inflows. 1.27% e.r. The managers have between $100-500,000 in, each, plus their stake in the adviser.
    72% cash and up 15% YTD, 16.4% over the TTM. Depending on whether you consider it small value or small core, it's beating its peers by 25 - 30% YTD. It has the second highest returns YTD for either group.
    Small core is led by Aperture Discovery Equity (ADISX), a fund with a record of less than a year which is advised by the US branch of a fairly large UK adviser. It's a long/short small cap fund that reportedly it booked a 60% gain in Q2. High expenses, negligible investment minimum with a manager from the private investment world; most recently, Diker Investments LLC, a small- and micro-cap specialist.
    Small value is led by NorthStar Micro Cap (NSMVX), a hedge fund that converted about 10 years ago. We profiled their dividend fund last year. Neither Aperture nor North Star holds much cash.
    I'll move some of my TD cash into Palm Valley today. I know that Mr. Cinnamond's discipline will disappoint then infuriate investors after small caps have had an extended run and are getting, by his lights, frothy, but I'm not sure that's an immediate concern.
    For what interest that holds,
    David
  • Investors are ‘running in complete blindness right now,’ economist says
    Short read that hits on several major themes. It's not so clear to me the Fed's bag of tricks is empty.....
    “In the 30 years I have been an economist we have never had this much uncertainty about the effects of the shutdowns, the future of the shutdowns because of the pandemic, the policy response and people’s fear in a sense,” Erik Nielsen, group chief economist at UniCredit, told CNBC’s Squawk Box Europe.
    “We are running in complete blindness right now, there is no way of being confident about the outlook,” he said.
    “Central banks are doing everything they can…but they cannot solve the problem,” he said.
    “What we need is fiscal policy and then we need news on the pandemic that things are coming back to normal,” Nielsen said.
    https://cnbc.com/2020/08/26/investors-are-running-in-complete-blindness-right-now-economist-says.html
  • Any great spec ideas?
    Geez - The boring markets are getting to me. Indexes have been stable except for the Apples, Teslas, and Amazons that seem to keep going straight up. (Inversely, the airlines seem to be going straight down,) Hard to get excited about bonds, even after the 10-year spiked to near 0.75% this morning. Heard recently that spreads are quite narrow on junk bonds which would mean they’re not a great play. I like energy, gold and the inflation hedges longer term, but they’ve come too far too fast IMO.
    I’m hanging on to PRLAX which was down 50% when I bought it a few months back. It’s now “only” down 26% YTD - representing a nice 24% gain in less than 6 months. But I’m not seeing anything near as tempting now. If I had the capability I’d short some of the high flyers. But I’m not equipped to do that being in traditional mutual fund houses held directly with the institution. Going to cash as a spec move is another option - but knowing when to get back in is a tough call. As for shorting, the closest fund I have to that concept is TMSRX, but you’re putting a lot of faith in the manager making the right call, if he wants to short at all.
    As always, if you knew which way inflation will run over the next 5 years, the call would be easier. Deflation would make bonds and paying off a 3.3% mortgage smart. Inflation would make those investments somewhat dumb. Than there’s the election, likely to roil the markets, but in unpredictable ways. Geez - They could do anything from staging a “relief rally” to taking a nose-dive and possibly a big bounce for metals, or for bonds for that matter. Of course, if the whiplash isn’t as bad as folks fear, the metals could tumble on the good news.
    So how to make a quick buck near-term that you can later roll into your normal allocation for a leg-up longer term? Ideas? (Wiseacre answers prohibited.)
  • Favorite International Stock Funds
    Large Blend, both, IRA and Taxable accounts.
    That helps. I didn't know whether you were looking for a core fund or a good esoteric fund.
    For the past several years, the more growthy a large cap international fund has been, the better it is likely to have done. This difference is not small, the margin is huge. The average category returns (per M*) over the past five years are: LCG 9.62%, LC Bl 5.28%, LCV 2.36%.
    There's no guarantee this will continue, and using a large cap blend fund is a good way to hedge your bets. Even within this category, though, the more the fund leans toward growth, the better its history will look.
    With that in mind, a fund worth considering is MDIDX. It's a fund of funds from MFS, a good family for international funds. While M* considers it a blend fund, it has been a bit growthy and Lipper classifies it as a multi-cap growth fund. But it just added MKVHX (LCV) as one of the funds it holds, and adjusted its allocations so that the fund should be an "honest" blend fund going forward. Part of that adjustment was to increase its EM component weight to 17.5% which is reasonable for a core fund unless you want to have a separate EM fund and control that allocation yourself.
    It has a somewhat smaller than average market cap, which is why Lipper considers it multi-cap rather than large cap. IMHO that's another plus for the fund, especially if one is looking for more of an all-in-one fund.
    It is fairly tax efficient, so it can be used both inside and outside of an IRA. The ER of the fund is 1.11%, which includes the expenses of the underlying funds it invests in. That's a bit higher than I'd like for a large cap fund, but it's not outrageous.
    If you want a more growthy fund, SCIEX is a fund that M* calls blend and Lipper calls large cap growth. It's managed by Schroeder, which is one of the two firms submanaging VWIGX, a fine large cap growth fund suggested by Lewis above. (However, SCIEX isn't great on tax efficiency.)
    If you want a more value leaning fund, TROSX suggested by Mulder420 above, is a good prospect.
    Virtually all of the funds suggested in this thread come from families with excellent reputations for international investing.
  • Favorite International Stock Funds
    My favorite fund is MIOPX which is managed by Kristen Heugh. This is a strong international fund with broad exposure to Europe as well as emerging markets. Ben suggested their global fund which is also excellent. If you run the numbers you'll see that it consistently outperforms all other funds internationally over 3, 5, and 7 years. In a down market it will get hit, but it actually held up well in March this year. A second fund that I think highly of is FSEAX. This is focused exclusively on emerging asia so it provides strong China exposure. I am just watching this one right now because of tensions with China but it also is a strong consistent performer. MATFX from Matthews is also intriguing.