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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Leavitt: July 9 trade deadline "not critical"

    We get the "C" team. I pity the fool.
    I think this team is comprised of whatever ego-hungry rube they could find at Central Casting ... imo they're not even worthy of a rating.
    We're all unwitting passengers sailing on the 'USS Make Some Sh--t Up' and the bridge crew is without a care in the world.....
    At this point i think other countries know the WH is full of smoke and will cave in the face of any serious retaliation - or might decide to just wait it out for the next 3 years? Who knows.
  • Automobile Cost of Ownership
    Forest Gump once said, "Auction cars are like a box of chocolates..."
    That is so true! Cars are expensive to own and to maintain. We like to pay cash for new Honda and Toyota every 20 years. Leasing and financing to own are not worth it. To us having a reliable car is essential for work and travel. Our insurance policy still creeps up even we have clean record on accidents and traffic violations.
  • TBLD TIBIX/TIBAX
    TBLD is trading at a 6.23% discount to NAV compared to its 52-week average discount of near 10%. It’s less than 5 years old. Close to 70% in equities. The 30% in bonds is mostly junk (BB / lower / unrated). To its credit it managed to lose only around 17% in 2022. Not bad considering the damage incurred by both equities and bonds that year.
    Agree the ER is high for a fund not leveraged (and incurring interest expenses on borrowings). I’ll forgive a high ER on a CEF if it has a very long term record of success and is attractively discounted / priced. But this one doesn’t have those attributes. In defense of the ER, the fund does have more than 50% of its assets invested outside the United States which adds additional expense.
  • The PCE(personal consumption expenditures) price index + Atlanta's Fed Q2 estimated GDP
    LOL - Imagine that it were Biden who was handed a roaring stock market and within months had produced a correction, one expressly tied to his policies. Would the OP be ignoring that and handing him credit for 2 1/2 years of FED policy? And utterly focused on a few benign, likely premature, inflation prints?
  • The PCE(personal consumption expenditures) price index + Atlanta's Fed Q2 estimated GDP
    Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders' recent article asks the question:
    "Complation"…Is there too much complacency regarding inflation?
    "The rub is that much of the economic data outside of direct inflation readings suggest higher inflation ahead. Both key purchasing managers indexes (PMIs)—the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and S&P Global—show that output prices have jumped to levels akin to the early part of the pandemic. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) survey is also showing that a higher-than-average number of small businesses are raising prices, or plan to. Many high-profile larger companies have announced price increases as well—including Walmart, Macy's, Proctor & Gamble, Ford, Subaru, Volvo, Volkswagen, Mitsubishi, Mattel, Adidas, Ralph Lauren, Stanley Black & Decker, Best Buy, Microsoft, and Nintendo."
    "What's also notable is the still-wide gap between the discretionary ("wants") and non-discretionary ("needs") components of the CPI. As shown below, although there has been some convergence between the two, needs' prices are running at about twice the level of wants' prices; disproportionately hurting lower-income consumers."
    https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/whats-going-onwith-inflation
    I wonder how many companies are opting to slowly boil that frog, by quietly and incrementally raising prices, without actually saying anything. To draw no attention to themselves.
    Cherry-picked stats by the OP are not to be taken seriously. Best to be used as a springboard to highlight the total inanity of the circumstances. And an opportunity to set the record straight. A chart of the S&P for the past 2 1/2 years tells an interesting story. 25% back-to-back gains until a wall was hit. That wall was Trump's policies. as soon as he backed off, the market responded positively, still only up 3-4% YTD, instead of 10-15% the trend was implying we should have.
    The market wants to surge and he won't let it. He wants loose FED policy, tantamount to stimulus, to cover for his trade/tariff failures. If his policies were working, they would not need artificial help. Mr Market would be running with it.
    There is zero historical evidence that even aggressive FED policy calms inflation in months. What we are witnessing is the results of more than two years of FED policy decisions. And someone trying to steal credit for that, while attacking the architect. Biden had two years of the highest FED fund rates in decades and wasn't whining about the hand he was dealt. Instead we had +50% cumulative S&P gains.
    The only thing different, and holding the market back, is current trade policy and all the underlying chaos in the disjointed messaging. This guy was handed a roaring economy and is squandering it. Many of the business leaders who supported him are now distancing themselves and hoping for relief.
  • Where To Invest Now?
    This recent episode of The Meb Faber Show is better than average. Faber’s guests are Rob Arnott, founder and Chairman of the board of Research Affiliates, and Campbell Harvey, Head of Research at Research Affiliates and Professor of Finance at the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University.
    The issue being discussed is: “To what extent are passive inflows into index funds affecting or distorting the markets? “ You won’t find an answer to where to invest now here. But very long term (over 10 years) the guests like small cap and value stocks. I enjoy the show for very late night listening. The casual relaxed approach won’t please everyone.
    (There’s a 90 second commercial for Y Charts at the open that feels like an hour.)
  • Where is the print media hiding the economic stats released earlier today? 26 June, '25
    Making me work for it, eh? lol

    "US Jobless claims declined to 236,000 as continuing claims increased to 1.97 million, the highest since November 2021."
    "Elsewhere, the US merchandise-trade deficit unexpectedly widened in May while imports were little changed, and first-quarter GDP was revised down to -0.5% compared to the second reading of -0.2%."
    For comparison, 1st Q 2024 GDP was tepid at 1.6%. That minus .5% makes last years number look awesome in retrospect. Has anyone told Donald?
    I wouldn't doubt a bigger number for 2nd Q 2025, simply because the threat of tariffs likely pulled forward a lot of spending.
    Something about the statement that 1Q imports "were little changed", baffles me. How can that be, when the story has been early import "hoarding" in the face of coming tariffs? Did order cancellations offset "upfronting" efforts?
  • Vanguard: Important information about your [IRA] checkwriting service
    Hell, we've had three out here in CA for years and years. Not that big a deal.
  • Automobile Cost of Ownership
    DO you think any of these totaled autos are snapped up at bargain prices & sent else where to be fix. When we head deep into TX. , it's not a surprise to see a line of older models heading to Mexico to be fixed.
    A few years back I met a person who bought damaged Mercedes. Once purchased they were sent over seas to be repaired at lower cost & resold. Hard to believe he made his living this way.
  • Magnificent Seven
    Three top large-growth managers discuss the Magnificent Seven
    at the 2025 Morningstar Investment Conference.
    Side Note: In prior years, M* vigorously promoted its annual Investment Conference.
    There didn't seem to be much promotion this year but I may not be part of their target audience.
    https://www.morningstar.com/markets/3-top-fund-managers-whats-next-magnificent-7
  • Automobile Cost of Ownership
    Many products these days are unrepairable or hard to repair. Some cheap TVs are all sealed and you cannot even open it to check or fix anything.
    This is slowly getting to cars too.
    I have read that in many car models, to replace the headlights, they have to disassemble the entire front portion and then put it back. So, that's what adds to the time and labor.
    I had a car once that had a difficult access for battery and required special tools to replace it.
    Even DIY oil changes in some cars are tricky.
    To be fair "the entire front end" is mainly a plastic facade (bumper cover) that can be removed in about 15 minutes if you know where the fasteners are located.
    And even if you could open that cheap TV, there would be nothing inside you could fix. Just a couple circuit boards, with very minute components baked on. Though I did help a neighbor replace a soldered-in-place fuse on a cheap TV, that got taken out in a lightning event a few years ago.
    Most people do not want to hear it, but things like TVs are basically obsolete in about 6-8 years nowadays. I had a 10 year old TV that failed (again lightning). I was not sad to see it go, all the smart functions were basically useless. The world had moved on from the hardware embedded inside, years ago.
  • Automobile Cost of Ownership
    The cost to fix damaged cars has increased by 28% since 2021.
    Seemingly minor damage to vehicles

    Tell me about it. I recently was in a fender bender (my fault, first time in over two decades and I wasn't at fault for that earlier one). 2MPH. Front fender dented, minor scratch to side mirror and some scratches along side of car (more dust than scratches). Cost to repair? Almost $7K.
    Fortunately I never dropped my collision insurance. And after 5 years without accidents, I supposedly have accident forgiveness. I'll see what my premium is in six months.
    The shop did a magnificent job, and they were really helpful. (And I feel sorry for the workers who did the repairs in near 100 degree heat.) Still, numbers like this show why insurance costs are so high.
    (This happened one block from home. Statistics show that 75% of accidents occur within 25 miles of home, 52% within five miles. I've made the grade, I'm another statistic.)
    https://hutzlerlaw.com/what-percentage-of-car-accidents-happen-close-to-home/
  • Vanguard: Important information about your [IRA] checkwriting service
    Even in this day and age, I'd like to think that James R. Schlesinger was right when he paraphrased Bernard Baruch as: “Everybody is entitled to his own views. Everybody is not entitled to his own facts.”
    And that's my opinion :-)
    How does the IRS know that the checks you wrote out of your IRA were actually charitable contributions? If you're not concerned about the IRS ever checking (pun not intended) except in a "deep audit", why hold onto receipts?
    (N.B. cancelled checks are not sufficient evidence of a QCD payment, esp. since 100% of a QCD must be an eligible contribution; no benefits received. Which is why QCDs cannot be used for MFO membership.)
    I've gotten my share of letters from the IRS over the years CP2000s and others. With only one exception I can think of, they've all been because of IRS mistakes. No matter. You never know what will trigger an inquiry from the IRS.
    One time (back when returns were submitted by mail) the IRS lost my Schedule B. Which was interesting because they had my Schedule A that was on the flip side of the page.
     
    I'd guess (i.e. IMHO) the chances are virtually certain that the IRS will penalize you if it discovers that you made an excess contribution as Yogi explained. My own experience with a penalty was when, due to my error, I accidentally underpaid my taxes due and was assessed an interest penalty.
    The IRS was sympathetic to the fact that I'd paid in much more estimates than was owed and even left the refund money with them as an estimate for next year. But because that money was now in a different IRS pocket, the IRS refused to waive the interest penalty.
    Personally, I have issues with the idea that if one won't get penalized, breaking the law is okay. Right now where I live, we have a new regulation that says we must place compostable waste in a separate bin for collection. But the city is waiving penalties this year. IMHO that is not a license to mix compostables with other trash (regardless of whether one considers it wrong for environmental or legal reasons).
  • FOMC Statement
    YUP, $7 or $8 for 10oz of spinach. Crazy... well at least bananas are still cheap. In a few years that 10 oz of spinach will be about $20. Time and costs march on....
  • The PCE(personal consumption expenditures) price index + Atlanta's Fed Q2 estimated GDP
    The current numbers don't accurately represent the effect of tariffs.
    Get back to me after the September, October, or November numbers are released.
    Thank you for your attention to this matter!
    The number right now is great.
    After Sep we can discuss other matters. Why wait for Sep? Why not wait for 1-2 years from now and claim other stuff?
    Thank you for your attention to this matter!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • Schwab Transaction Fee Mutual Funds
    I could be wrong, but it seems to me that FD1000 said at one time he had a (fee) pass at Schwab. That's off the top of by head, so.......
    Or you could be spot on ...
    For me.
    ... 4. Here come the biggest advantage for Schwab. I trade only mutual funds and preferably Inst shares. Schwab waves the $49.95 fee while at Fidelity I hardly ever got that. 4 switches annually for 5 accounts is a $1000.
    That post was in June 2024.
    In that same 2024 thread, another post:
    All I'm going to say is that Schwab reps have been waiving my I share fees for over 7 years. I'm not going to tell you how. It's not a policy you will find anywhere, just as they will match other brokers offers for cash rewards when you transfer money.
    I ask for the moon and get a lot.
    Yet this (fee) pass doesn't seem apply to all $49.95 TF Inst shares:
    When I tried PIMIX, I see a fee of $49.95.
    No confusion again.

    I'm not so sure about that "no confusion" part.
    As to how to get fee waivers at Schwab, other posters have provided information. In that same thread:
    I got the fee waived when I told my rep that I wanted to move VTMFX over from Vanguard but would not because of the fee. He waived it
    More recently (about a year ago) I believe I posted something about Schwab being interested in getting investors who were leaving Vanguard (VG had just added more fees). They would consider waiving TFs on Vanguard funds and perhaps a few other fund families if an investor brought over enough money. The rep said that Schwab didn't want the TF to be an impediment to moving assets.
    I didn't ask for the moon. But I did open the door by asking simply what can you do for me if I bring in these assets?
    FD specifically mentioned getting VG NTF. So that's one family where Schwab is waiving FD's fees. Given that, the description FD gave above about how to see what one's personalized TFs looks correct. The fees are personalized; YMMV.
  • Schwab Transaction Fee Mutual Funds
    When I looked at VWINX=Vanguard Wellesley at Schwab, the Schwab site says up to $74.95
    I entered a buy for $10K for VWINX. The transaction says zero. Same for DODGX.
    I haven't used VG or D&C for decades. I can't remember one fund I was interested in the last 20 years that I paid $74.95.

    On the Schwab “Enter Order” page, there are two options under Transaction fee:
    Deduct fee from total
    Add fee to total
    The next “Verify Order” page shows a Transaction Fee of $0.00 but under the fund description next to Transaction Fee there is a “Yes”.
    When you click on “Place Order” the “Order Received" page properly accounts for the transaction fee.
    It’s just a poor implementation as the exact TF should be disclosed on the Verify Order page.
    When I click on info only at the bottom it's clear. It says
    . The transaction fee for this buy order is $ 0.00.
    Then I placed the order. The total is only $10K.
    Remember, I selected to add fee to the total, but there is no fee. BTW, I don't have any shares in VWINX.
    Bottom line there is no fee for me. I don't see any confusion.
    When I tried PIMIX, I see a fee of $49.95.
    No confusion again.
  • Didn’t see today’s UP market coming!
    Equities may well be in a bull market, but TACO boy cannot stay out of his own way. He is the major risk to the health of this bull. Markets should persevere, or so we hope. They have shown much resiliency this year in eeking out gains.
    I'll maintain some allocation to gold for the next 3 years regardless of price.
    Most interesting will be how our credibility takes a hit once Powell is no longer the Fed Chairman, and it's just some lackey cutting rates at TACO's discretion. Something to look forward to.
  • FOMC Statement

    Hi @hank Change the year to 1970, enter the $2,800 cost then and select Calculate. the calculator is based upon CPI, not PCE.
    We can't do magic with this, especially with vehicles and the changes over the years for adds to vehicles (i.e., anti lock brakes and everything else that has become standard equipment.)
    Standard CPI calculator
  • FOMC Statement
    Isn’t that why we invest? To keep up with inflation? My first new car, a ‘70 full sized Plymouth Fury in 1970 cost $2,800. My second new car, a beautiful ‘73 Mercury Montego in ‘73 cost $3,200. I bought a beautiful new F100 pickup in ‘82 for $8,000. A slightly larger new F150 in ‘90 cost a bit over $11,000. In 2005 I bought a similar sized GMC Sierra for just under $20,000. In 2018 a new Honda Accord cost me $26,000, and in 2024 I paid nearly $40,000 for a new Toyota Camry. From 1970 to 2024 the cost of a brand new vehicle for me went from $2,800 to nearly $40,000.
    OK - you can knock a few K off the last one. It has AWD. None of the others did. And knock another few K off to compensate for the latest safety and driver comfort items on cars today compared to 1970. However, cars in 1970 were designed to get you from point A to point B just as they are today. And the ride might have been a bit better in those days before weight was reduced. And even in 1970 with proper maintenance a car would go 100,000 miles or more. For some perspective, a good friend recently related that his latest new vehicle, a ‘24 Chevy pickup, cost him around $60,000. I haven’t bought a new truck in recent years, so thought that worth noting.
    You can do the same thing with houses, hamburgers, paper towels or whatever. As Gomer Pyle would say: “Surprise!” - Paper currencies over time lose value. Reason we invest.