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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The S&P 500 will fall 8% by the end of 2020, according to BOA CHIEF
    @Old_Skeet: SHE was just repeating long discredited anti-Democratic blather. Forbes, that well-known anti-capitalist organ of the Democratic Party, has a different take. Some excerpts from a Forbes article on the subject:

    Looking at ... total returns for the S&P 500 during presidencies since 1929, it is clear that U.S. stock returns have been much better when a Democrat was the president; however, it would be a mistake to conclude that stock returns were higher because a Democrat held the presidency.
    There is no conclusive evidence suggesting the president’s party has any statistically significant impact on U.S. equity market returns. Intuitively this makes sense, because stock returns are influenced by a myriad of factors such as valuations, corporate profits, business cycles, monetary policy, etc. In addition, the increasingly global economy (the S&P 500 generates more than 50% of revenues outside the U.S.) makes the actions of a single government less important.
    The stock market is a complex adaptive system in which cause and effect are not easy to link. Market movements, particularly over short periods such as a presidential term (yes, four years is a short-term investment period), are random.

    But a word from the White House: This is just more PHONY FAKE NEWS from Forbe's with their long history of promoting left-wing hate-America HOAXES. They should go back wherever they came from since they obviously don't like it here.
    @Old_Skeet- I was afraid that you might be uncomfortable with the actual facts as mentioned by Forbes, so I included a softened-down Trumpian rant to make you feel a little more at home.
  • Hedging for election cancellation and/or refusal to leave
    @johnN: Having spent my last twenty years of employment as a radio tech for San Francisco's 911 I'd really like to hear the details of 911 "not showing up", John. Or is this just more of your usual line of BS?
  • How Did Members First Find MFO? IOW What Got You Here?
    Hi Dennis- I first heard of Fund Alarm from a complimentary article in the WSJ many years ago. @Mark tried to blackball me but I got in anyway. :)
    Add- Our Dean of Discipline, @David_Snowball, assures me that at the rate my behavior is improving I may get off probation in three or four years. Hope springs eternal!
  • Hedging for election cancellation and/or refusal to leave
    I shouldn’t respond — I think it could be messy with both parties suing different states for irregularities but things will be resolved before Jan 20, 2021. If by chance that is not the case the 20th amendment offers some clues.
    Section 1
    The terms of the President and Vice President shall end at noon on the 20th day of January, and the terms of Senators and Representatives at noon on the 3d day of January, of the years in which such terms would have ended if this article had not been ratified; and the terms of their successors shall then begin.
    Section 3
    If, at the time fixed for the beginning of the term of the President, the President elect shall have died, the Vice President elect shall become President. If a President shall not have been chosen before the time fixed for the beginning of his term, or if the President elect shall have failed to qualify, then the Vice President elect shall act as President until a President shall have qualified; and the Congress may by law provide for the case wherein neither a President elect nor a Vice President elect shall have qualified, declaring who shall then act as President, or the manner in which one who is to act shall be selected, and such person shall act accordingly until a President or Vice President shall have qualified.
  • Stocks That Could Thrive in a Post-Pandemic World
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/09/business/stocks-after-coronavirus-investors.html?auth=login-google
    Stocks That Could Thrive in a Post-Pandemic World
    Life will return to ‘normal,’ but not entirely. Here are some suggestions for investing in a changed world.
    /When facing a crisis as dire as the coronavirus pandemic, it’s natural to think that everything will change utterly and forever by the time it’s over. But people are resilient creatures of habit, so many aspects of life will return to what used to pass for “normal.”
    But not all of them. Some are bound to be lastingly altered, and the changes may not be the ones that have been bet on, like less air travel and more spending in search of wonder drugs.
    Many trends that were already in place, the virus has pulled forward by five years,” he said, including a shift in shopping and entertainment to the home from outside, and a greater appreciation for remote familial and professional interactions. Although the investment opportunities in these areas have been well flagged, he said, they may have more room to run./
  • ESG funds- who's buying
    I own a small cap (BOSOX) and a mid cap (WAMFX) from Boston/Walden. I didn't have to spend 100K to get in through my Vanguard IRA. The fees are reasonable. And the yearly turnover is less than 25%.
    I also own PARMX, the Parnassus mid cap.
    I have looked at large caps. But I don't want one that invests in Amazon. I'm a sucker for value investing. So maybe Parnassus Endevor (PARWX) -- though I don't care for the high turnover.
    I'll see where they're at in a couple of years.
  • ESG funds- who's buying
    I've owned Parnassus Core Equity Institutional (PRILX) in my HSA for several years. The fund's performance (especially during downturns), low costs (for an active fund), and experienced long-term management team influenced my investment decision. ESG characteristics were not my primary focus although I certainly appreciate companies that behave responsibly in the environmental and social realms.
  • A couple fund "swaps" that paid off
    Equity performance has shifted in last several years as growth out-perform value style. This year the difference is even bigger.
    YTD: Vanguard Growth index, 17.2% versus Vanguard Value index, -15.0%.
    Prior to the pandemic, FANNG stocks heavily dominate the indices. Even though US is not yet official in recession, few stocks are showing decent earning and many retract their earning forecast. Time like this is similar to the time period prior to the 2000 dot-com bubble. Growth stocks way out-perform value stocks for several years, then came the crash. Value stocks held up better from 2000-2002 until market recovered. Can this repeat again?
    FMIJX held high quality stocks but I believe it is slowing environment that steered away from these stocks. Still believe FMI stock picking skills but perhaps bad timing. For now the change to VWILX has been good sofar.
  • ESG funds- who's buying
    A previous thread got me thinking, anyone investing in ESG funds, ETFs, or in stocks (based primarily on ESG criteria)?
    New Labor Department Guidance Takes Aim at ESG Investing
    Back in the early 90s, the funds, I was aware of, were Pax World (which I invested in), Calvert Socially Conscious (?), & Parnassus fund. There might have been others, but I forget. Performance over several years in Pax World was so-so and I decided I would invest for return & donate to causes that I felt would make an impact instead.
    In 2018, I revisited the socially conscious investing arena & found it had actually morphed into ESG funds.
    As noted in a Rekenthaler column link (provided by @msf in the previous link):
    The Department of Labor Attempts to Throttle ESG Investing
    As I wrote last month, a key difference between ESG and its predecessor, "socially conscious investing," is that socially conscious managers implicitly admitted that their strategies might reduce their returns, while ESG investors do not. Socially conscious investors used negative screens to eliminate stocks that violated their beliefs. In contrast, ESG investors seek positive attributes, which they claim will make their companies better investments.
    Though to be honest, I don't recall seeing that in the Pax World literature!
    I found the Brown Advisory website to have thoughtful insights & information available & decided to invest in BIAWX at the time.
    This is their 2019 Impact Report
    Today BIAWX is my largest equity holding.
    I would consider Parnassus funds as well. They've been consistent, around a long time, & their website also provides a ton of information in this area.
    Parnassus
    BIAWX & PRILX have both been competitive:
    Portfolio Visualizer
    I would have thought that there might be a lot of overlap in their holdings but there wasn't. Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Danaher, & Verisk Analytics make up about 20% for each but are otherwise not.
    As the ESG arena flourishes, I am also skeptical in the metrics used to quantify companies & funds.
    Take Tesla (TSLA), electric cars, renewable energy, & Elon Musk.
    Without evidence, Musk blames ‘false positives’ for surge in coronavirus cases
    Any thoughts?
  • A couple fund "swaps" that paid off
    Interesting tread here for sure. I left FMI funds several years ago to other options perhaps better suit my purpose. FMIJX holds high quality stocks but the growth oriented stocks seem to do better in today environment as value stocks have lagged badly. Swapped FMIJX for Vanguard International Growth, VHIGX several years ago - much better.
    I also swapped FMIJX for VG International Growth (VWILX) a little over a year ago. The poor FMIJX performance this year really surprised me. FMI funds usually perform well during downturns.
  • A couple fund "swaps" that paid off
    Interesting tread here for sure. I left FMI funds several years ago to other options perhaps better suit my purpose. FMIJX holds high quality stocks but the growth oriented stocks seem to do better in today environment as value stocks have lagged badly. Swapped FMIJX for Vanguard International Growth, VHIGX several years ago - much better. Also move part of SFGIX to Matthews Asia Asia Innovation, MATFX - so far so good. Will check out TMSRX - available as Transaction fee fund at Fidelity.
    @MikeW, Interesting that ARTYX has 20% exposure to US - high growth stocks.
  • The muni market overall is set for more gains, but some bonds are riskier than they appear
    Thanks FD and Bee. For me its VWALX, have had it for years and no complaints. It seems all of our funds are relatively the same on performance and risk, give or take. Performance Trust muni has been on a role this year (PTIAX not to bad either) but longer term its in line with the others. NHMAX (which I also hold) has been good long term but having an off year (it happens).
  • The muni market overall is set for more gains, but some bonds are riskier than they appear
    Thanks @rsorden and @msf for the information. I could be wrong but I'm not sure risk versus reward is good for munis going forward for the reasons you guys mention.
    In my opinion, Municipals, both local and state, will feel the ramifications of this recession for years to come. But the title of this post pretty much says it all. Good for a trader I guess but I've never been too good at that. I see myself more as an investor.
  • The muni market overall is set for more gains, but some bonds are riskier than they appear
    I'm always concerned but when I see an uptrend I invest until it's gone. Over the years I have learned that the "experts" can't predict the future and definitely not the coming weeks-months. After a big dive, bonds just like stocks usually come back. The Fed is also supporting several bond categories, including Munis.
    How many times I have heard the experts are concerned about stocks and especially the top tech companies in the last 3 months? hundred times and QQQ keeps going up like crazy.
  • Cash Is Trash; Choose Bond Funds Instead
    What's the saying? Treasuries are the last refuge of a scoundrel? Nope, that's not quite right. :-)
    Still, Treasuries are the last refuge of lots of people. So they tend to hold up better than higher credit risk securities. And when the whole market, including Treasuries, are realizing interest rate risk, short term holds up better than long term.
    So short term Treasury funds including VFISX held up better than other bond funds last March. But VFISX didn't "navigate" especially well. Here's a M* chart comparing the March 1 - May 1 performance of this fund vs. its autopilot (index) peer VSBSX. The latter gave both a smoother ride and better performance.
    They have similar durations, currently 2.0-2.1 years. The Vanguard Index tracks the 1-3 year index. Notice that Barclays 1-5 year Treasury index, with a duration of about 2.5 years had a tad more volatility. That was the price for its better performance as the overall interest rate trend continued downward.
    Perhaps the difference in performance between VFISX and VSBSX can be explained by the fact that the former is allowed to hold up to 20% in agency bonds, while the latter holds only Treasuries.
  • Commentary: China has already peaked and faces economic stagnation
    The Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates that China has yet to break through the material science that goes into the latest microscopic chips, despite throwing money at the challenge of successive programs, the latest commanding over $ 20 billion of dollars. Its high-end chip industry is ten years behind, but in ten years the infrastructure for global cyber dominance will already be in place.In short, the United States controls the global semiconductor ecosystem, working closely with Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. All Washington had to do at the end of May was to move their fingers and TCMS of Taiwan instantly cut the chips to Huawei, suddenly condemning the company’s global G5 quest.
    Britain cannot stay with Huawei even if it wants to. US Congress Won’t Authorize Branch of Chinese State – Serving Xi’s Doctrine civil-military merger – acquire global control over a key technological break point.
    China is already in Germany...Any telecommunications group aiming to pursue Huawei’s G5 plans in these circumstances commits financial suicide. Deutsche Telekom internal documents speak of “Armageddon” if the German firm is forced to replace 3 billion euros of Huawei equipment already installed. Armageddon is what they are going to get.
    https://fr24news.com/a/2020/07/china-has-already-peaked-and-faces-economic-stagnation.html
  • Why Own T-Bills?
    Mr. Seed is able to provide interesting data and thoughts.
    With his knowledge of the bond world, he indeed should be a very wealthy man.
    'Course, this statement:
    "Summary: Don’t Listen to Bloomberg, Treasuries Aren’t for Everyone, at Least at These Rates."
    He does note the money that can be made during falling yields, but IMHO; he could have dedicated a few more words regarding this.
    I'm reminded of the period of falling yields after the melt in 2008. At the time, I also watched some CNBC tv. The commentators would mention falling Treasury yields and a fairly standard verbal statement would be, "you're not going to get much for your money with those." These folks, I presume; have enough financial wisdom to know what happens to bond pricing when the yields are falling. I watched numerous times expecting one of them to say that when yields are falling you may make good money from the price increases. Nope !!!
    And from where do folks think a lot of the price appreciation arrives for the more plain vanilla balanced funds, be they moderate or conservative, during these past decades. Sure........the bonds.
    Two and one half years chart of BAGIX v AGG v SPY . I used this time period, as 2018 had several bumps for equity, not counting the big bump on Christmas eve of 2018. So, if one held a decent bond fund or even the etf AGG, your holdings on those clunky bonds provided, eh? The point for the etf, is that these can provide, too; although I prefer a proven active managed bond fund at this time. Using sector etf's in bondland will allow one to build whatever mix you choose. Choices for a mixer are vast, as never before.
    Lastly, we've traveled this bond turf many times. If you feel that yields may continue to move lower, you'll make money with quality bonds. If the hot equity market is going to melt, you'll likely do well with Treasury issues. If you are sure yields are going to move higher, then time to assess whatever bonds you're invested. If one finds an alternate, long/short or other magic box fund that is of interest, compare its life span to say a, FBALX or even VWINX to discover the ability of the fund to provide for profits.
    Some of the investment grade bond funds have been flat for a few weeks (too much money after equity, I suspect). This week has found more positive moves (price). Perhaps the bond folks are buying on the cheap, or hedging that equity is a bit too hot.
    I don't know.
    The ultimate consideration for one's portfolio is capital preservation and that you are comfortable with your choices. More now, than ever before; one has every which way to customize a portfolio.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • what do you call T. Rowe Price?
    I don't bother with the name because I never call TRP. All my funds have been in the last 20 years at Fidelity + Schwab. The only TRP fund I have ever held was PRWCX, which is one of the best allocation funds for many years.
    I keep a very simple system with credit cards.
    Penfed for any gas at the pump = 5% cash back. I used this card abroad too with no fees.
    Everything else Fidelity 2% cash back. I don't want/need more cards with more complication and calculation
    Wait, Amazon has a 5% back so I opened an account last year but the card is not in my wallet. I buy more every year.
    When abroad I use Schwab ATM for cash. Schwab pays for all fees globally and why I only take out small amounts several times.
  • New Labor Department Guidance Takes Aim at ESG Investing
    @MSF From the M* article:
    For example, ESG investors obviously expect the third part of their acronym, governance, to improve their portfolios’ performance. Their environmental and social concerns less clearly reflect self-interest, but ESG managers maintain that environmental and social concerns pose material risks that investors must consider, and that companies that manage such risks well will make their businesses more sustainable.
    To which I reply horses--t. A livable planet is in everybody's self-interest, rightwing political propaganda notwithstanding. Climate change is real and it's coming for our portfolios--and our lives. Ostensibly retirement plans are supposed to be the ultimate long-term investors, investing for the entirety of their employees' careers. A 22-year old employee today can look for being in 401ks of various companies for some 43 years from today, during which climate change will have a significant impact on his/her portfolio. Saying otherwise is sticking one's head in the sand.
  • Wasatch closing three funds to third party financial intermediaries
    The funds will still be open via direct investments. So if one should later decide to start a position and hold them through a third party (e.g. a brokerage), one should be able to buy shares directly and then transfer the position.
    I did this years ago, though I don't recall with which fund. I have also seen verbiage to the effect that a newly opened position cannot be transferred to an intermediary for six months. This Wasatch prospectus change doesn't impose any restrictions on transferring shares.
    Though it is always a gamble as to whether the fund distributor will honor the terms in (or absent from) a prospectus.