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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • MetWest Flexible Income Fund - MWFEX, MWFSX
    actually this is giving me confidence in the fund. It's got more than half in cash, a heckuva bond mgr, and it's giving you 4.4%. This might be the "new" RPHYX
    2 completely different funds.
    RPHYX made 2.1% average annually in the last 3 years. Why would I want to own this fund? The only reason maybe cash "sub" since many bond funds I own made a lot more. RPHYX is mostly short term duration HY bonds + cash & Equivalents.
    MWFSX is a Multi sector fund. Please find me more bond funds with over 50% in cash. It made only 0.42% in the last month. That is at the bottom 2% in its category. For 3 months it is at the bottom 12%.
    The only confidence I have is when I see performance but maybe they are right and why rates started to go up in the last several days :-)
  • James Montier, Reasons (NOT) To Be Cheerful
    Here is the problem with the GMO team. They are wrong for years. The SP500 made over 10% more than what they predicted at the end of 2010 for the next 7 years. It is not that clear but the first green bar says that US large cap will do 0.4% + 2.5% inflation = 2.9% average annually in the next 7 years...or...EM will do 4.1+2.5=6.6 but they lagged US LC. GMO have been saying that EM will be better than US for 10 years already.
    You can see in this (link) what SPY did vs EEM from 12-31-2010 in the next 7 years.
    (imageimageimage)
    But they are not alone. Arnott models didn't work either and why PAUIX made under 2% annually for 10 years.
    Gundlach, the bond king, predicted in 2018 that the 10 year Treasury will be at 6% in 2021.
    And it's not the only thing: over the last 10 years we heard that
    inflation must be high.
    Valuations are ridiculous.
    Inverted yield means recession.
    So, what is the reason why markets are up and the prediction are off? When the Fed interfere models, history and prediction can be off by years?
    Sure, one day some predictions will true, after all, if you predict things for years, eventually you will be right.
  • Gone for good? Evidence signals many jobs aren’t coming back
    Howdy folks,
    Mid Michigan but am not having any trouble in the stores like Meijers and Horrocks. 99% of peeps wearing masks. I do avoid busy times of day and crowds. Geez, you want to go early to any inside space before too many people have been. None of the heating nor a/c units are built to bring in outside air other than the air makeup units over restaurant cooking areas. Retrofitting is costly. Until then you want to go early to minimize your load exposure.
    Jobs. Wow. So much disruption that's harmful. So much opportunity that's exciting. So much positive reallocation of resources - hopefully. Problem is getting through the next 12 - 18 months or so.
    So many jobs are completely gone. Look at the industries that are obsolete. My niece is one the finest restaurant minds I've ever encountered owning three kickass sports bars. She had to sell one just to give herself a half ass chance. Doesn't matter how good you are at making buggy whips in 1915.
    This is what is happening to whole industries. Much of this was slowly taking place but the virus is bringing change - at warp speed. Virtual life? Was possible and now it's mandatory AND cost beneficial. Cities? Check the real estate market and building occupancy rates going forward. Large crowded places and gatherings? Really?!?
    Enough of the good news. Earlier I felt we'd get back to normal after a few years. Now I don't know. As a species, we're stupide but us Americans are even worse. The idiocy being displayed around the country for ideological reasons is not only insane but will cause this to devolve into exceedingly bad times. I fear this coming winter.
    "Get ready, little lady. Hell is coming to breakfast.":
    and so it goes,
    peace and wear the damn mask,
    rono
  • Gone for good? Evidence signals many jobs aren’t coming back
    Doing more shopping online for staples like canned goods / detergents / dry packaged food products. But dang it. ... Many items the big chains refuse to ship (ie currently Ghardelli chocolates) and some of what they will ship (ie canned fruit) is priced 40-50% higher than in the company’s retail outlets. Most offer free shipping on orders over a certain amount. Not so much a complaint as an observation. Shipping direct to homes costs $$.
    Price’s David Giroux ventured outside his normal investment mandate and added Amazon 2-3 years ago. How lucky can you get? :)
    PS - I think this all relates to jobs - loosely. Some jobs are disappearing. Many others are simply moving. I don’t suppose FedX or UPS is laying off any workers.
  • Wells Fargo Funds liquidates several funds
    Not that it matters, but the tickers for the last two funds (Int'l Gov Bond and US Core Bond) are reversed.
    This filing is in a sense a followup to a filing last February liquidating the four Wells Fargo Factor Enhanced funds.
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/55305/wells-fargo-liquidates-several-enhanced-mutual-funds.
    All 8 funds (those four and the four here) were supposedly introduced in August, 2017. Supposedly, because the initial prospectus names all eight funds, but only has info on seven. The eighth fund, Int'l Gov Bond Fund, was then (re)introduced in a separate prospectus and launched Nov. 2017.
    Seeing a whole batch of fund launched (sort of) simultaneously, then shut down within three years, makes one wonder what the management company was thinking.
    The four shut down earlier would seem to be an ill fated attempt at latching onto a fad (or trend if you prefer), factor investing. The four shut down here are different.
    Admittedly international bonds (whether sovereign or EM) are not exactly mainstream. But they're not exactly the flavor du jour either. The management team is part of the larger team for WF International Bond Fund ESIYX, which has a fairly poor record and under $100M AUM. It's no surprise that the two funds here failed to take in much above $1M. What was WF thinking in launching a fund more narrowly focused (restricted to government debt) and a niche fund (EM bonds)?
    The US Core Bond Fund likewise holds only around $1M AUM. Why did this one fail? Okay, a lackluster record, but it's got mostly the same team as WF's Core Plus Bond Fund STYAX that has done a bit better, and has over $1B in assets. A mainstream category and a competent team. Another me too fund in a crowded field?
    The High Yield Corporate differs from the others - it has almost $1B in AUM. It fared a bit worse than its peers in the March swoon, likely because it holds mostly lower grade junk. But its overall record (3 years) is okay, and it's got enough assets to be profitable.
    One can say that it makes sense to close down seven of these funds; but then it made little sense to launch them. The reverse may be true of the last fund. Either way, it leads one to wonder what WF is doing launching funds.
    FWIW, the remaining "new" WF funds (shorter than five years) are:
    Dynamic Target Date Funds - a series distinct from its traditional Dow Jones Target Date Funds
    Global Investment Grade Credit Fund WGCIX - $76M AUM, primarily for institutional/qualified plans
    Low Volatility US Equity (WLVLX) - $57M AUM, launched 2016
    Municipal Sustainability (WMSAX) - $26M AUM, launched this February
    Special Int'l Small Cap (WICIX) - $5M AUM, primarily for institutional/qualified plans
  • Dodge & Cox Emerging Markets Stock Fund in registration
    re DODFX . . . Three of the managers that left were older members of the firm: Gunn, Cameron, and Serrurier. Yamada struck out on his own. And so did Gofman. So, that latter is odd for D&C. But that firm has always had average tenure around 20 years. And the eager youth that want to move up must know that.
    I'll probably get out of DODWX if this rally holds up long enough. It now makes more sense to me to have clear separation between domestic and foreign for the strategies I'm interested in. VMVFX might remain the exception that proves the rule.
  • Dodge & Cox Emerging Markets Stock Fund in registration
    “Is this in reference to Dodge & Cox?“
    It would seem so. Franklin Templeton is headquartered in San Mateo, 20 miles from SF, but I believe it to be publicly owned. D&C of course is privately held.
    To play Devil’s advocate here ... One reason to diversify among managers is the expectation that some will outperform others over short and intermediate terms. A long leash out to perhaps a dozen years is long enough to take into consideration likely changes in management at the firm as well as changes in investor sentiment which in turn affect the fund’s return.
    Yes - I’m a bit chagrined comparing DODBX to PRWCX over past 12 years (roughly the tenure of David Giroux). But there was no way to predict that type of disparity 12 years ago that I know of. Without digging below the surface, let’s just say that the management styles and focus of those two funds are quite disparate (even though M* may place them in the same category). My inclination at this point would be to tilt slightly in favor of DODBX, out of belief in reversion to the mean and also the recognition that it’s hard to outwit low fees. (But it hurts a bit looking at the 10 year charts.)
    Note: I have owned both of the above mentioned funds for more than 15 years.
    A Tribute to Obsolescence
    “Tellson’s Bank by Temple Bar was an old-fashioned place, even in the year one thousand seven hundred and eighty. It was very small, very dark, very ugly, very incommodious. It was an old-fashioned place, moreover, in the moral attribute that the partners in the House were proud of its smallness, proud of its darkness, proud of its ugliness, proud of its incommodiousness. They were even boastful of its eminence in those particulars, and were fired by an express conviction that, if it were less objectionable, it would be less respectable. This was no passive belief, but an active weapon which they flashed at more convenient places of business. Tellson’s (they said) wanted no elbow-room, Tellson’s wanted no light, Tellson’s wanted no embellishment. Noakes and Co.’s might, or Snooks Brothers’ might; but Tellson’s, thank Heaven!”
    Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities
  • Where To Stash Your Cash
    The cash-sub thing come 2-3 times weekly. Cash-sub is a fund with very low volatility for years except a short hiccup this year in March. If you raised the volatility then you have many regular bond funds.
    So, I would look at funds like ICSH, JPST,MINT, RPHYX(nice davfor)
    BTW, I hardly ever use cash-sub funds or even short term bond funds. Either I'm in all the way with mostly bond funds or in a rare occasion I'm out in a real MM fund. When a black swan shows up I don't want to play at all.
  • Dry natural gas prices broke out to the upside last week.
    @hank: Thanks for info on BRCAX methodology . Many years back I put up some cash so a friend could take a contract on hog bellies. I was informed that (we) had enough gain & should he purchase another contract. Well being a little green , I okayed it. Then for the best part of the deal.... I was on a fishing trip when my late wife took a call from him looking for more $$$ to keep the contacts. I guess I learned a good lesson on that deal.
    Lost the whole shebang !! , Derf
    P.S. Can't win them all !
  • Dry natural gas prices broke out to the upside last week.
    @John. Could you explain the difference between wet gas and dry gas? Which is better?
    Natural gas has been DOA for a number of years. Trading just over $2 today. I’ve gleaned lately that one reason gas and oil often run in opposite directions is that gas is a byproduct of fracking. So rising oil prices imply more fracking and thus result in oversupply of gas. Nice rally in crude lately after going negative a few months back. Brent‘s over $45 / NYMEX above $42.
    A Covid vaccine should be good for oil as they are a long way from making large passenger transports fly on battery or solar (although planes have become a lot more fuel efficient). I’ve always committed 10-12% to the natural resources & commodity-type funds (currently 11%). This is the first time in a long while that I’ve had something to smile about with that corner of the portfolio.
    BTW - gold’s bouncing $25 today. Still has farther to fall IMHO.
  • Where To Stash Your Cash
    Any fund that dropped more than 2-3% YTD is not cash sub and why I like ICSH, JPST. These too had much lower volatility in other years.
    Agree. RPHYX also makes sense to me....
  • Where To Stash Your Cash
    Any fund that dropped more than 2-3% YTD is not cash sub and why I like ICSH, JPST. These too had much lower volatility in other years.
  • Where To Stash Your Cash
    @Derf, Interesting pick in SPEDX. Thinking I'll cut some from SPECX into SPEDX through a nav transfer. This should put me somewhere around 50% in SPECX, 25% in SPEDX and 25% in AOFAX within the Alger family of funds. I've got to be careful moving out of SPECX as I've built up sizeable unrealized capital gains in SPECX. In doing a nav transfer I avoid commissions but tax wise this counts as a sale and the tax man will want his cut.
    Again, a good pick in SPEDX as I am really thinking hard about moving some money into it especially since, from my perspective, equities are overbought and it can short. I'd most likely hold SPEDX in my niche fund sleeve found in the growth area of my portfolio.
    As for my cash I have it split among four money market funds. They are AMAXX, TTOXX, TBIXX & PCOXX. Currently, their year to date returns are 0.27%, 0.34%, 0.47% & 0.52% respectively. When I reduced my cash allocation from 20% to 15% in my portfolio, a while back, I rolled this money into a couple bond funds (MIAQX, LBNDX & FLAAX) since cash yields are paying next to nothing and these bond funds have current yields of about 4.2%, 4.0% and tax free 3.2% respectively. This move became my chosen option to counter low cash yields and raised my income area allocation from 40% to 45%.
    Over time, I'll let my portfolio's income generation restore my cash position back to the neutral position of 20%. I'm thinking by year end I'll be back close to the 20% cash allocation as I take all income distributions including year end mutual fund capital gain ditributions in cash. At year end I'll decide how to proceed with respect to the rebalancing my portfolio.
    I'm sure there is more than one way to deal with low cash yields. As investors, we have to decide which way is best for each of us to proceed knowing there is no one right (or wrong) way to move as there are no doubt many options that will find success.
    Thanks again Derf for bringing SPEDX to the board's attention as I am no longer a student of new fund study although I do follow the markets and for the most part run with what I have establised through my many years of investing.
  • Leuthold, echoing everyone I've interviewed
    @Old_Skeet: bought my place five years ago and thought long and hard about a generator, in particular one that tamped into the natural gas line. And then I kept thinking, "I lived around the Quad Cities for 32 years and have had one outage that lasted more than an hour or two. What are the odds that this will be a good investment for me?"
    "Rising," apparently.
    (sigh)
    I do rather worry about the RobinHood crowd and the prospect that they're pushing things higher, in part by triggering the algos. The observation that the S&P 495 is underwater by 5% year-to-date while the S&P 5 is up dramatically, does feel worrisome.
    David
  • Leuthold, echoing everyone I've interviewed
    Hi @David_Snowball,
    I live in a 100+ year old neighborhood with above ground powerlines that snake through the alleyways. Yep, it has a good number of 100+ year old oak trees ... and, frequently tree limbs take the powerlines down. My solution ... for the past twenty years ... has been a Generac standby power generator that runs off of natural gas. With this, I do not have to seek fuel to run it. Something to think about going forward if you don't already have one. Mine will run pretty much to whole house plus some reserve for a life line for a neighbor or two.
    On asset valuations ... Yep, I'm with the call that a good number of asset classes are extremely overbought and selling at premium prices including most stocks, bonds and real estate. Many homes in my neighborhood are selling well above their appraised and listed prices due to location to the central business district in Charlotte. I remember ... years back ... people paid dearly to get out of the neighborhood. Well, and now, they are paying dearly to get back in to avoid long commute times. Most homes in my area are selling at 110+ percent of appraised value. So, yes ... from my perspective ... if you buy now you will indeed have to pay up not only for real estate but for stocks and bonds as well.
    Seems, to me, inflation is back. Take care ...
    Hope you get your power back soon. I'm sure it is no fun being without it.
    Old_Skeet
  • Dodge & Cox Emerging Markets Stock Fund in registration
    @Shostakovich: yep. Around the time, I suppose, that Sequoia was *the* domestic fund to hold...
    Morningstar's enthusiasm for the fund remains undimmed but their case is dependent on two arguments. First, Dodge and Cox is Dodge and Cox. Second, if you look at the record since the fund's inception in 2001, it's been great. That's true, but true only if you're looking at periods longer than 10 years. Their analysis of the rough patch of the past decade is pretty much "they're contrarian."
    Only one of the original six managers remains on the team. While management change has not been rapid, it has been pretty consistent. Perhaps they've lost more talent than they knew? Perhaps some of the folks being added to the team have a perspective at odds with the founders' approach? Maybe the world has changed.
    David
  • Another Kodak Moment: SEC Probing Kodak Loan Disclosure, Stock Surge
    I've talked to a few of my ex-Kodak friends and we are all heart sick about this. If anyone knows Kodak's history, management has sucked for at least the last 30 years. This greedy bastard-CEO fits that bill completely.
  • Leuthold, echoing everyone I've interviewed
    Hi, guys.
    Sitting here on day two of a power outage that might stretch for several days more. The straight line wins that came across Iowa took out about a third of the trees and rather more than a third of the power lines in the area. Our entire end of town is being affected by a major transmission line that went down. They're guessing two to three more days before the lights are on. Augustana, across the river, is also without power and under a boil order. I'm afraid that a major purge of the refrigerator needs to commence.
    All of which is slightly relevant because I don't have internet access or a computer. And pretty much limited to a trickle of mobile data which explains why the formatting of this node might be a bit shoddy. Regrets for that.
    I've probably interviewed six managers in the last six weeks or so. Today Leuthold posted a note on market sentiment and valuations, both of which they find to be irrational. The last paragraph of their note is a virtual word for word restatement of what every single manager, equity and fixed income, but I've interviewed has said.
    For what that's worth, David
    "Market valuations and investor sentiment are right back to the dangerously high levels that informed our market caution in January and February. That's remarkable because those levels reflected a high conviction that the economic expansion could continue indefinitely. Today, with the economic and earnings outlook as uncertain as it’s been in perhaps 80 years, valuations and sentiment have snapped back to those frothy levels. And arguably, the situation for a multi-asset investor is considerably worse than six months ago because the fixed income alternatives are even more outrageously priced.
    The Fed is overtly trying to crush every investor with a cautious stance, but that doesn’t mean a degree of caution is not appropriate."
  • Vanguard and legal entanglements (Power of attorney, beneficiaries)
    What happens if you have no poa/beneficiaries and something bad happen to you -Probate processing maybe costly and time consuming.
    I did manage to put wifey name on beneficiary and brother as secondaries, it was easy process two years ago couple of clicks - Not sure about now.
    Thankyou MSF for the reminders, we will process paperworks in schwab and merrilledge also
  • Muni Yields Hit Lowest Since 1952 as Fiscal Crisis Tests a Haven
    Hank, excellent response. Over the years I have seen many investors that make changes in their portfolio based on prediction and opinions of "experts" just to find later they were wrong.
    I don't blame these journalists their intention is to grab attention with their headlines, after all, every time you click and read they get paid. Probably over 95% of article are useless, reparative, recyclable and not actionable.
    Just to name one, Gundlach, the bond "king", predicted that the 10 year treasury will be at 6% in 2021 (link).
    This is why I don't pay attention to any of these. As a trader I just follow charts, uptrends and prices but I'm in the market invested at 99+% about 97-98% of the time.