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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The Price Tag For Ken Fisher’s Lewd Remarks: Nearly $1 Billion, And Counting
    @gmarceau: You are right to miss the Obama years. They were eight years of a scandal-free presidency. Obama's people got thoroughly vetted and didn't end up having to resign or be fired for conflicts of interest, fraud, and incompetence. You may be right about the media having low ratings at that time; personally, I'd take boring and predictable over what we've got now.
  • The Price Tag For Ken Fisher’s Lewd Remarks: Nearly $1 Billion, And Counting
    I think that "off color" is an very inaccurate description of what he said, especially the references to slavery and girl's pants. I never knew that he had significant institutional money ( I guess I never thought much about it but $100 billion is hard to find from individuals). I was never impressed with his pitch despite dozens of mailings over the years
    Couldn't happen to a nicer guy. The lesson for us mere mortals is don't put all you investment eggs in a one man show basket. How many other mutual funds and investment firms has this happened to!
  • The Price Tag For Ken Fisher’s Lewd Remarks: Nearly $1 Billion, And Counting
    Calls out people ignoring Fisher shenanigans for 20 years, gets the sjw full on assault from a journalist
  • The Price Tag For Ken Fisher’s Lewd Remarks: Nearly $1 Billion, And Counting
    Bunch of virtue signaling wimps...question: if he’s been saying this kind of bs for years, why does this type of reaction only happen now?
    It’s everyone trying to show how much they care, the kind of crap that could only happen during a Trump presidency...I almost miss the Obama years when the mainstream media establishment was having it’s worst ratings.
    Do I think Fisher should speak that way in public- meh, I wouldn’t, but this current climate of trying to put a face to all this outrage is designed to instill fear. I’m not talking about the woes of a billionaire here, if this is the future then this can happen to anyone.
  • American Century locks investors out of their own accounts
    Geez @Ted. While perhaps not the most enlightening post of all time, I’d much prefer hearing about the real-life issues others who own mutual funds deal with than to stare bleary-eyed at an endless sea of links. Hell, any kid over 12 could pull all that **** up on the internet in an hour’s time - maybe faster (if a really smart kid).
    BTW - You could really improve those posts if you’d write an intelligent sentence along with each one telling your vast audience why “the linkster” selected this or that particular story to share and how investors may benefit. That, IMHO, would lead to wider appreciation of your work and would show a real commitment on your part to helping less experienced investors - which I don’t currently detect. Copy & paste just doesn’t achieve the same end. Again, kids know how to do that.
    Ted, I know you will fault me for being overly-wordy, but please understand: (1) I’m trying to be as “diplomatic” here as possible so as not to ruffle your fragile feathers and (2) I want the advice I am rendering to be crystal clear to you.
    -
    @ Old_Joe, Thanks for sharing. I’m glad at least the folks at AC you’ve talked to seemed to really care about the issues. Knowing about your steps already taken or under consideration is no doubt useful to younger investors. I left AC angry about 15 or so years ago when they began imposing loads on some of their funds. That effectively locked me out of some pretty good newer offerings at AC, even though I’d invested with them for a decade or more. In hindsight, I might have pursued the issue more patiently and completely and resolved it with their people. But, afraid I have a pretty short fuse. :)
  • American Century locks investors out of their own accounts
    On Tuesday, 10/15, I (and presumably all other AC account holders) received the following email:
    Let’s Work Together to Protect Your Information
    You want to feel confident that your information is being safeguarded. That’s why we’ve expanded our account security measures—and we need your help.
    It’s simple: Just log in by December 31 to activate the additional measures. You’ll need to update your password and enroll in additional security options.
    OK, so I went to the AC web page, and updated my password. No big deal. Then AC presented me with three security options, none of which, for various reasons, were workable for me.
    That's it folks: we were now locked out of our account. No warning, no options, no way to even communicate with AC, other than by phone, which is not possible for me due to severe hearing issues.
    My wife telephoned AC, informed them of the situation, and requested that they close the account immediately and transfer the entire balance electronically to a local account at JP Morgan Chase. We have had that AC account for over forty years, and it has consistently held between 400/500k. Fortunately there are no tax-sheltered IRA issues involved.
    The AC service reps were very understanding, and tried their best to be helpful, but were not able to come up with an alternative. They agreed to close the account, advising that the electronic transfer to Chase would be made, and the transferred amount should be available at Chase by Friday.
    Wednesday, 10/16: We received a phone call from AC, advising that they were working on some sort of fix which "should be available withing two or three weeks", and asked if we would cancel the account closure until then. We agreed.
    Thursday, 10/17, 9:15AM: We received a phone call from AC, advising that they had modified the account sign-in procedure to include an old-fashioned "answer this secret question" safeguard.
    I set that up a few minutes ago, and all seems well , at least for the time being.
    We have to wonder how many other account AC holders threatened to leave American Century over this. Certainly must have been a substantial number, based on the speed of their response. It would be really interesting to know how much AUM money was at stake for AC. In any case, it certainly seems to have exceeded their "we don't really care" threshold.
  • Bank of America declares ‘the end of the 60-40’ standard portfolio
    My usual comment.
    For most investors, buy and hold a simple target fund is one of the best. I believe you can do worse.
    For above-average knowledge investors, there are several other good options.
    I see stocks as a simpler portion of one's portfolio. The US LC is the dominated category and SPY/VTI is a pretty good risk-adjusted index. The biggest difference is the bond portion and the older you get the more you should pay attention. For most, it's several years prior to retirement and thru retirement.
    Bond land has opportunities such as Multi sector and Non trad bond OEFs and all the way to leverage FI CEF. These funds have much higher dist and in most cases reasonable risk attributes (SD, Max draw, Sharpe, Sortino). Examples: PIMIX,SEMMX,IOFIX,JMSIX...PDI,PCI.
    For about 20 years I have used best risk/reward funds.
    I can name several for stocks/allocation...PRWCX,USMV,SPLV and maybe DSEEX, AUEIX...recently I looked at international stocks and came up with MFAIX/MFAPX.
    Most/all of these articles, opinions and research papers are discussing simple bond funds which are planes without a pilot.
  • How to Deal With Head-Spinning Market Swings
    Ignore the swings if you're a longterm investor. Volatility is a natural part of the markets and is not necessarily something to be feared. Going nuts at every wiggle, even a short-term violent one, is a recipe for disaster. If anything, embrace the volatility to accumulate shares that go 'on sale' or get so overpriced you can lock in more profits and reposition things if you like.
    Folks freaking out about every market spike/drop are probably the same folks who expect to get a participation ribbon just for being in the market and expect the very fact of that participation to result in immediate gains. IMO the past 12 years artificially-induced and sustained 'bull' market conditioned folks that there is only one direction that markets can ever go, which is disturbing.
    Speaking of Seykota, don't forget his 'Whipsaw Song' -- which I still play now and then. :)
  • How to Deal With Head-Spinning Market Swings
    Hi @Simon, @johnN and others:
    How to Deal With Head-Spinning Market Swings ... In short words ... Play the Swing
    Big money has the ability to create volatility in the markets though their program trading systems. With this, the markets get pushed around more than they perhaps use to. And, this leaves the little investor wondering, at times, how to govern. Generally, when in doubt, they sell. For every sell that takes place there has to be a buy. And, again generally, this is big money that is doing the buying when the little guy is selling. When the big investor is selling generally the little investor is buying towards the top. Through the years I've seen this process repeat itself many times.
    For me, a small retail investor, I now generally do some buying during the dips and sell the rips. Some call this playing the swing. I call this activity a special investment position or a spiff. I've been doing spiff activity for the past twenty years, or so, with good success. Please note that my spiff positions are a part of my overall investment plan and are not designed to be my complete investment plan.
    Old_Skeet's market barometer helps me govern my spiff activity which I have been posting on the MFO board for the past couple of years, or so. Here is a link to my most recent post.
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/52513/old-skeet-s-market-barometer-report-august-september-october-update
    For those that would like to get on board with some proven trading strategies (The Essentials) the link below might just be of good interest.
    http://www.seykota.com/tt/
    You might also enjoy listening to the Tribe's theme song. Just click on the link below.
    http://www.seykota.com/tribe/essentials/index.htm
    I'm a card carrying member.
    And, so it goes.
    Old_Skeet
    Trailing comment: The graph in the link below reflects the S&P 500 Index's range of movement over the past rolling year. Notice, the trend for the most part has been down to flat with a recent gain resulting of about a 3% to 4% overall return for the time period. By playing the swing, at times, I was able to increase my returns over just being invested in a long only strategy.
    https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=ES
    If you would like to view the volatility spikes the below link graphs the VIX for the past rolling year.
    https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=VX&p=d1
  • How to Deal With Head-Spinning Market Swings
    3021 to 2822 (a 6% range) is hardly "head-spinning".
    Wild swings...do me a favor.
    2008 was genuinely "head-spinning", I'm sure all will agree. There is absolutely no comparison to today.
    Honestly, I am becoming increasingly fed up of all the hyperbole that is making the rounds just to sell copy. We have barely begun the biggest bull market in history yet the snowflakes are terribly offended over minor price adjustments in the market. By all means, sell if you want to and head for the mountains. The big boys on Wall Street will be only too happy to part you from your money. And so will I, because I am more bullish today than ten years ago.
  • Where To Invest $10,000 Right Now
    Just my two cents worth, but I would put all $10,000 into stocks because I believe this secular bull market has years and years left to run. The market has been base-building since August in preparation for much higher levels to come. A good, low cost index tracker mutual fund or ETF such as VOO or VUG would be ideal. Yes, earnings are due to be on the soft side this quarter, but that doesn't indicate in any way the onset of a recession. Don't believe what you read online or in the press. Outlets such as Marketwatch and CNBC sell fear. The Fed will lower rates at least one more time this year, and coupled with what is effectively QE4 with $60bn of monthly treasury purchases starting tomorrow, this will only juice all asset prices going forward.
  • Fisher Investments Launches Diversity Task Force
    LOL - Those are great posts / discussions about Fisher @LewisBraham linked.
    I recall 20 or more years ago a good friend commented to me he had been receiving “invitations” in the mail to invest with Fisher. At the time we both deemed it something of a compliment to have reached the point where Fisher was willing to consider you as a potential client.
    Fortunately, the friend didn’t invest with him. And I didn’t have enough $$ back than to have made an an attractive “catch”. (sucker variety.)
    -
    Edit / Added:
    “People who are born wealthy are supposed to behave better. In fact, that’s where the whole concept of the refined and gracious gentleman in Europe comes from.”
    That’s an interesting concept and very much at the heart of F. Scott Fitzgerald’s The Great Gatsby. Geographically, the “born rich” and “newly rich” are situated opposite one another on opposing points of land jutting into Long Island Sound. The “born rich” of East Egg, exemplified by the Buchanans, live a more sedate refined life style, their days occupied by afternoon tea, polo, horse back riding, and discrete “affairs” cloaked in secrecy. From Daisy Buchanan: “Sophisticated. God I’m sophisticated!” Across the bay on West Egg stands Gatsby’s newly acquired palace of extravagance and decadence with its drunken nightly celebrations of debauchery and indifference to the norms of civilized society.
    I think there’s a shred of truth to Fitzgerald’s observation that those born rich tend to be more “sophisticated” (and less crude) than those who have more recently fallen into wealth. I haven’t missed that Lewis’ point pertains more to European tradition. Just musing here that some of that viewpoint is reflected (perhaps in distorted fashion) by an American writer.
  • Portfolio changes for retirement
    The combo of AMRMX, VIGRX, OARIX and PTTRX are my current choices. Monthly contributions have been going into the GIC for a few years now. OARIX is showing sign of life of late. Not been kind to me the last few years but I didn't have another option.
  • Where To Invest $10,000 Right Now
    Twitter is useful for the lay readers of many researchers since there is almost always elaborated, non-laconic, material to read elsewhere.
    This, about gov debts and income inequality, looks pertinent, brought to my attention by a family member:
    https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-01-2014-0015/full/html
    (Saez and others are clear about other, non-gov debt: 'This explosion in debt means effectively that the bottom 90% has been saving 0% of their income over the last 30 years.'
    So ... in what direction is your own mind made up? What, again, do you yourself advocate?
  • SEMPX
    TANSTAFFL. There's going to be a tradeoff between risk and return, and among different types of risk.
    RPHYX takes on credit risk (junk bond fund), but tries to mitigate it by buying bonds with special situations (e.g. "redeemed debt" bonds - bonds that have already been called and will be redeemed shortly).
    SEMPX invests in MBSs, which all else being equal tend to yield a bit more in exchange for negative convexity risk. Even though their effective durations appear short (based on expected time until borrowers repay their loans), as interest rates drop this expected time expands (they won't be refinancing or prepaying). That's negative convexity - duration extends, prices may drop as vanilla bond prices are rising. I'm beginning to rethink this risk in a low interest rate environment, because borrowers don't refinance for small drops in rates and there's no room left for big drops.
    FPNIX remains one of my favorite funds that I have never invested in. It uses a variety of derivatives in a defensive manner to reduce risk based on market conditions. It has never had a down year in its over 30 years. It's unconventional in the breadth of its investments and the techniques it uses, keeping in mind that these are used to mitigate risk, not to boost returns while keeping risk constant.
    Traditional ultrashort bond funds generally trade off volatility for yield. No magic - they eek out a little more yield than MMAs (banks) with a little more volatility, or up the yield a tad more with a bit more volatility.
    There's nothing inherently good or bad about any of these approaches. Pick your poison, or diversify among them so that you'll have some (but not all) cash available at any time depending on which approach to risk mitigation is working at the moment. Also consider muni funds if you're in the 22% or higher bracket as another form of diversification.
  • Portfolio changes for retirement
    Hi @Art, (FWIW) I'd say you are conservatively invested at about 70% (cash & bonds) /30% (equity) more so than me being at about 60% (cash & bonds) /40% (equity). With this, you know your risk tolerance better than me. I'd would stay invested along the lines of the long term asset allocation you plan to use going forward in retirement. I'm also thinking the asset allocation is more important, in the near term, over fund selection since you will be reconfiguring your portfolio in six months or so. For me, though, I'd add some small/mid caps along with some emerging markets and follow a global mix of about 70% domestic and 30% foreign. I'm thinking there is presently better value to be had in foreign equity over domestic; but, I would not venture to far towards foreign.
    However, some say, you really don't need foreign holdings since about 40% of the revenue found in the S&P 500 Index now comes form abroad. Perhaps so.
    I sincerely wish you the very best in the years ahead.
    Skeet
  • Where To Invest $10,000 Right Now
    Vanguard Prime Money Market. At least while you are thinking about it. I'm so glad I did that while I was thinking about it. I'm still thinking.
    I thought about this 10 times in the last 3 years. Every time my answer was VMMXX. Looking at my return, I'm quite happy.
  • Billionaire Ken Fisher Blasted Online After Offensive Comments At Closed-Door Fireside Chat
    I have a friend who worked for Fisher Investments in San Mateo, CA. My friend was with Fisher only about 2 years and quit to go elsewhere. My friend said that Ken Fisher is a nutjob and Fisher Investments was "the cult of Ken Fisher" with everyone worshipping Ken Fisher.
    Sound familiar?
  • Josh Brown: How I invest My Own Money

    Josh is awesome - followed him and Barry for years. IMO their firm is doing things right and if I ever needed to pick up RIAs to manage money I'd probably go with them.
    This statement says a great deal, in a positive way:
    " ...My 401(k) is invested in the exact same asset allocation model as we use for our clients...."
  • ORNAX - load at Fidelity but waived at Merrill Edge
    A bit lower octane option within the family is OPTAX. A few less percentage in Puerto Rican bonds, a few years lower duration, lower Beta, lower Alpha, and lower Standard Deviation. Accordingly, the 3-month, YTD, 1-year, and 3-year total return for OPTAX trails ORNAX.
    Pick your medicine.
    Mona