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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • As central banks break the junk debt barrier, investors will follow
    Good point. I'd never have thought to express it that way. We are so far from where "fundamentals" would put us, it's insane. We are light years from a supply-and-demand Market. Everything not only being propped-up, but well-greased. Of course, coronavirus lockdowns and the effects could not be predicted.
  • "Core" bond fund holdings
    I would rather not have to set up another account, especially a retirement account to buy Marcus CDs. While FDIC guarantees work ( I lost two CDS during the 1980s housing crisis) it does take some time to get your money back so there is some opportunity cost.
    1.5% after taxes will not beat inflation, unless you think there is a massive deflation coming. There are a number of 1 year A+ bonds paying up to 2.5% from companies that are highly unlikely to go bankrupt in the next year ie, Kimberly Clark, Home Depot, Wells Fargo. If a good analyst knows what they are doing I think they can avoid bankrupcies and make more than that with longer duration bonds.
    Certainly moving money around in IRAs is more difficult. In a post I made on another board I acknowledged that. Here, it just didn't occur to me that the question concerned IRAs. You're right that they're more problematic.
    I used to work with someone who had taken delight in putting money into the most shaky Texan S&Ls in the early 80s. He said that he had gotten his money back a few days after each institution failed. Apparently your mileage did vary :-)
    I am curious about the bonds you're looking at. I did a search on Fidelity's site, expanding the parameters to look for corporate bonds with maturities through Nov. 2029, and S&P or Moody's rating of at least BBB+/Baa1 respectively. Fidelity showed an inventory of 1139 bonds. When sorted by YTW (highest to lowest), the highest yielding WF bonds I found were:
    94974BGL8, 2.922%, BBB+/A3, 7/22/27
    94974BFY1, 2.558%, BBB+/A3, 6/3/26
    95000U2D4, 2.497%, A-/A2, 1/24/29 (call 10/23/28)
    95001D6P0, 2.314%, A-/A2, 4/17/28 (call 4/17/22)
    949746SH5, 2.181%, A-/A2, 10/23/26
    949746RW3, 2.108%, A-/A2, 4/22/26 (and callable)
    94974BFN5, 1.975%, BBB+/A3, 8/15/23
    94974BGP9, 1.940%, A-/A2, 9/29/25
    No other Wells Fargo bonds yielding at least 1.92%. The bond I bolded comes closest to what you were describing - it should be called in two years (not quite a one year bond) and it is rated just a couple of notches below your A+ or better requirement.
    Corporates rated A+ or better that I can find with YTW over 2.5% that may be redeemed sometime in 2021 are premium bonds callable next year. One expects premium bonds to be called, so I would count these as 1-1.5 year bonds; at least until problems prevent them from being called. So some possibilities do exist, albeit with liquidity risk (they may not be called, and there are added trading costs to sell rather than wait for redemption).
    They're largely from health companies and banks - BP Capital, Credit Suisse, Barclays, UnitedHealth, Merck, etc. But no Wells Fargo, no Home Depot, no Kimberly Clark. The Schwab screener lets you look for issuers, and the only bonds it shows for these three companies are generally rated A-/A2 for Wells Fargo, or A/A2 for the others.
  • Did Warren Buffett Buy Stocks in the Coronavirus Crash? The Answer Might Surprise You
    I saw one video talking about the speed of this downdraft and bounce back was so fast he may not have had time to make some deals... many variables. Also in the video they said ..hey, he's 89 years old!!
  • "Core" bond fund holdings
    Hi again @Old_Joe.
    Thus far this year ... and, I'm thinking that the only money I'll pull from the investmets is the required RMD from the retirement accounts and some of that will get repositioned back into investments. What I'm doing with most of the income that is generated from the investments is to increase my acreage by buying more shares of good funds. In this way, there will be a greater number of base shares to build from when the rebound comes (continues). Currently, wife and I live pretty well off of our SS checks, wife's school pension, and my contract work with my former full time employer before I retired from full time work. For us, life is good since we are debt free.
    But, I also understand where you are coming from with how you are governing as well. 20% was a sizeable sum of our portfolio for us to hold in cash since it was paying next to nothing and losing to inflation. So, I over weighted my sleeve of good dividend paying equity funds in the growth & income section of my portfolio. Firured over the next five years or so I'd do ok with this strategy and grow my principal thus offsetting inflation and collect the dividend.
    Much like a company if you are not growing principal and income then you are simply not progressing.
    But, each of us on the board has to do what we feel is best. And, what I do might not be right for others. I understand that. But, I also understand, income has never gone out of style.
  • T Rowe Price International Funds

    To be rated above average, a fund must be in the top 32.5% of its category (but not in the top 10%).
    PRIDX came close to above average performance, but didn't make it over 3 years (38th percentile) or 10 years (33rd percentile). Shift that 10 year performance a little and the 10 year star rating should move up to 4 stars, bringing the overall weighted average rating also up to four stars.
    It looks like this has happened. Take performance rankings through today (April 26). 10 year moves up to 27th percentile, 5 year drops slightly from 14th to 17th percentile, and 3 year moves up to 29th percentile. All above average performances.
    So one should expect the star rating to move back to 4 stars when it's recalculated unless the fund stumbles in the interim.
    It is now (May 5th) rated four stars.
  • BUY - SELL - PONDER - MAY 2020

    Sold a few odds and ends I picked up in March after locking in some short-term cap gains that more than cover upwards of 1-2+ years of dividends.
    I originally planned those purchases to be long-term holds but I'm having second thoughts about that @ the moment and moving to control exposures/risk.
  • Longleaf Partners Small Cap Fund reopens to new investors (LLSCX)
    My personal favorite is WAMCX. Great and consistent long term performance and a good manager who’s been at the helm for 8 years. Thanks for the suggestion of JSCVX @LewisBraham. Looks interesting. It has held up well previously in down markets. What hurt the fund this year and why do you like it now?
  • Bonds beat stocks over 20 years
    BUT, all this info will not be accurate true in the next 10 years since rates are so low now. As they say...past performance isn't a guarantee of future returns.
  • Bonds beat stocks over 20 years
    @dsuttr
    The below chart offers a small example of VFINX vs WHOSX, 1999 to present date.
    ***Note: both charts are total return, meaning all distributions included.
    Chart
    This period covers, with a little extra; the 20 year period of the article. The line chart is a bit busy at the right edge. For an easy read, at the far left edge of the "days" section at the bottom of the chart, click the green and red icon to present a bar graph with percentages. Stock charts will not allow me to travel longer into the past. Perhaps this is available with a full membership.
    @bee , thank you for your presentations.
    Now, the ultimate return possibility is for one to study your favorite SP500 fund, etf or index (or other growth investment); and a chosen fund as WHOSX, an index or etf that represents long term government bonds. With these two sectors in mind, discover their trend patterns; based upon what is taking placing in the investment world. Either maintain a 50/50 mix or adjust as needed to favor one over the other for "x" time. Run your mix as a personal allocation fund, balanced more to one side from time to time.
    'Course, we all know that the common words for investors when asked the question: "Where are you invested in the stock market?" More often than not, I reply that currently we're invested in bonds and some equity. A blank, questioning look appears upon the face of the one asking the question, "bonds?". The local tv and radio commentators never state that the bond markets closed today at......,eh?
    IMHO, debt (BONDS) is the blood that flows through the veins of equity, and obviously; governments (large and small). Regardless, I don't like the fact of how much debt exists; be it government or corporate. But, this is where the game lays at this point. It is perhaps just as easy to state that too many corporations have stock prices that are inflated, too. Same game, eh?
    Note: This discussion is about government AAA rated bonds, backed by the full faith of the U.S, government. Not BBB or similar corporate bonds that may be on the edge of "good junk".
    The widely invested etf's in this space; are: TLT, EDV and ZROZ. TLT generally lags a bit in performance to the other two.
    Ten year chart of the three, limited by inception date.
    You'll likely discover more funds and indexes in this area with a search.
    Lastly, at least for the time frame of the article, is the general long term, positive performance in many bond areas that have offered a lot of support to the performance of moderate and conservative allocation funds. Give a thank you to the mangers who have helped you have a decent return over the years in this area.
    Ok, I'm past my time limit, chores call. :)
    Catch
  • Bonds beat stocks over 20 years
    re: FD 1000 comments
    l agree that results with TLT are very different from those engendered with BND.
    When i inputted TLT into Market Watch, Fund. Comparison it will only yield for me 1 year return so i tried the comparison with Stock Charts, Performance
    Charts and I compared for ten years TLT and SPY. The results show SPY at +194.7% and TLT +153.1%
    I then went to Chas. Schwab Research on ETF page and compared ten year annualized returns. I found different values but still SPY at +153.58 % outperformed TLT at +74.9%
    Interesting how two reliable firms get similar but not identical results. I guess numbers are fungible and can be maneuvered to prove anything, as I am sure our NY Times corespondent is aware.
  • Bonds beat stocks over 20 years
    Yes, LT bond did better but also VWINX (2/3 bonds) did better but also SD=volatility was better too. (link)
    But in the last 10 years TLT+EDV have similar performance to the SP500 too (link)
  • Why 'Sell in May' Looks So Alluring in 2020
    https://247wallst.com/investing/2020/05/02/why-sell-in-may-looks-so-alluring-in-2020/
    /Why 'Sell in May' Looks So Alluring in 2020
    Jon C. Ogg
    May 2, 2020 6:31 am
    Last Updated: May 2, 2020 8:51 am
    Every year, there is a recurring mantra of “Sell in May and go away!” This is the belief that investors should exit the stock market ahead of summer and not return until the fall. After the bear market panic ended in March, April’s stock market gains were the strongest one-month performance in more than 30 years. Even if investors choose to hold on to all of their stocks, it is important to consider why “Sell in May” matters./
    Market may not response similarly compared to previous May's in 2018 2019
  • Bonds beat stocks over 20 years
    I'll trust the author's method of calculation. I do not disagree with his conclusions.
    NYT article
    SNIPPET:
    Here are the annualized returns:
    The S&P 500: 5.4 percent.
    Long Treasury bonds (with a duration of at least 10 years): 8.3 percent.
    Long investment-grade corporate bonds: 7.7 percent.
    Junk bonds: 6.5 percent.
    Broad investment-grade bond index (the Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond index): 5.2 percent.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • IOFIX- Better late than never
    As some here declare they harvested a tax loss. While others have created a tax loss for many years to come. Speaking of tax loss, why hasn't this been raised & raised at least with inflation ?
    have a sunny Sunday, Derf
  • "Core" bond fund holdings
    IMHO it's not that people took on more risk than they thought but rather that people do not appreciate what risk is. Stuff happens. Risk generally is rewarded, but the ride can be jarring.
    The average 10 year returns for multisector and for intermediate core bond funds were very close as of today (May 3, 2020). Multisector: 3.65%, core 3.80%.
    Take the same ten years through the end of 2019 and the averages are multisector: 4.87%, core: 3.81%. (All data from M*'s legacy graphs; see here for 10 years through 2019, see here for 10 years through today).
    Over the long term, higher risk investments will probably do better, but when there are corrections or disruptions, they'll come down to earth faster and harder, bringing their long term averages closer to the lower risk investments.
    My guess is that the "wealth effect" has something to do with people's reactions. High flying funds make people feel wealthier than they are; they don't factor in embedded risk. So when, as is inevitable, that risk manifests and the funds show themselves to be just somewhat better, people tend to feel disappointed. I'm suggesting that rather than feel disappointed when bad things happen, instead feel just a little less good when good things happen.
    Based on the performance figures, ABNDX is an average fund. It's done very well this year on a relative basis, about 3.5% above category average. And that's brought its 10 year performance up to about 0.35%/year above category average.
    On the other hand, PIMIX has held up relatively well against its category, ahead 0.5% YTD. Even from peak (Feb 23) to trough (March 23) it did better, losing "only" 13.3% vs. 14.22% for its category.
    ISTM the question is whether one is willing to hold higher risk categories over a long term for a payoff, recognizing that long term is not one or three years but more likely five or even ten years. If that's too long to stay pat, then intermediate term core bond bonds would seem a better fit.
    FWIW, I haven't reacted with changes to my portfolio. The only changes I'm contemplating are lateral moves (not category changes) that I've been looking into for years. I just have a little more data to work with now.
  • "Core" bond fund holdings
    @Old_Joe,
    You have asked for my thinking on fixed income. Here goes ...
    My ability to review funds has been compromised by M*. Part of my quick and dirty review matrix is no more through M* Portfolio Manager. In portfolio manager I have been able, up untill recently, to view the 52 week high and low for a mutual fund along with % above and below. I can still do this with stocks, closed end funds, and etf's but not mutual funds.
    I began this study because I was disapoined with the performance of my income funds as I felt they should have held up better than they did during this recent stock market swoon. I had been in this review process now for a couple of weeks ... and as of last week my review matrix is void of these 52 week details that was part of this review and study process. This is where I was getting my upside and downside capture numbers. Now, no more.
    I do remember looking at ABNDX to see how it performed against some of my current bond funds as like you I had owned ABNDX before (from time-to-time). ABNDX and AGTHX along with ANCFX were part of my seasonal spiff package where I'd load equities (AGTHX & ANCFX) in the late fall and hold them until spring then rebalance and move (through the nav exchange program) into fixed income (ABNDX) (commission free). Generally, I'd also put my new money to work and buy the bond fund during the summer months as the commission to purchase it was less than to purchase equity funds. I learned to do this early on in my investing endeavors during my teenage years from my late father's stock broker. As a matter of fact he is the one that schooled me on the seasonal investment stratey (Sell In May) that I have used through the years and still do today as May/June period & September/October period are generally seasonal (calendar) rebalance times for me.
    During this review of my fixed income sleeve I remember that ABNDX when compaired to my other holdings was the better performer during the downdraft period while it did give up some ground to the others in its fair weather performance. Still it's yield is a little low (2.2%) for my taste. Some Old_School Mytholodgy, taught to me by my father's broker during my early years in investing, was to make +2% above inflation on fixed income and savings and +4% to +6% on value (equity income) and +6% to +8% (perhaps more) on equity growth positions. I remember back in the late 1990's and early 2000's I was getting a yield from AHITX of about 10% (now about 6.5%) and a 5% yield on CD's and yes ABNDX was at the 5% yield mark as well (now around 2.2%). Then the Great Recession came and fixed income started paying little to nothing as it is today with the FOMC's low interest rate policy. With this ... equities have thrived and bonds have withered. Thank goodness for the hybrid funds.
    I guess what I'm saying to you ... and others ... fixed income is not what it use to be. And, to gain yield I took on more risk in my fixed income sleeve than I thought I had. If I had continued with ABNDX as one of my core fixed income holdings I'd now be better off today than where I am now in protecting the downside. Still my other holdings within my income sleeve over a ten year period have out gunned ABNDX from both a yield and a total return perspective.
    I'm thinking that this new bond fund by American Funds (MIAQX) is a marketing tool fund to help better sell their fixed income stuff thus retain more shareholder money that might now be moving to other bond houses. Anyway, I plan to cut some of my fixed income money back to American Funds where it be ABNDX (most likely) or MIAQX (the new fund) as I'm equity heavy and May/June are rebalance months for me. This rebalance is mostly because I am equity heavy based upon my asset allocation model more so than a seasonal timming strategy move plus I like to rebalance in both spring and fall. In addition, I've been thininking of trimming some from FKINX and moving these proceeds (through nav transfer) into FISCX and FBLAX. FKINX has disappointed me (lately) but it is the first fund I began my investing endeavors with, at age 12. It still remains as one of my top five positions outside of cash.
    Thanks ... Old_Joe for asking my thoughts. In writing this out gave me some clairty to the mater as well. I had an elementary school teacher that had us writing a Friday paper as what we had learned in school for the week. I've kept with this through the years and even today write a weekly recap ... more so ... on my portfolio and the market than anything else. One week I turned in a blank paper ... I learned "the hard way" not to do that anymore. Come Monday ... I had to write 50 times on a sheet of notebook paper (front and back) ... during recess ... "I'll take good daily class notes so I can write my Friday paper." In doing this she marked my Friday paper assignment as complete. Told me next time ... I'd not be so lucky.
    If I learn anything of great value with my call to my advisor about this new bond fund ... I'll let you know. I'm planning to do a nav transfer this week as I have to call to do this. This will be a good time to make the inquiry on the new bond fund. I'll post what I learn.
    Old_Skeet
  • BRUFX Bruce Fund
    I've been waiting to but this fund for YEARS. I need a 50-60% correction and I'll go "all in"
  • "Core" bond fund holdings
    @Old_Skeet- Would appreciate your judgement on ABNDX vs MIAQX when you've gathered enough info to evaluate. We've owned ABNDX on-and-off over the years for balance, and I have to say that I was never overly impressed with American's bond performance vs their equity performance, which I thought was generally quite good.
    There's a bit of info over in the "Capital Group Launches Multi-Sector Income Fund" thread, in case you hadn't been following that. MSF, as usual, has been keeping up his good work.
  • MOAT vs. DSEEX/DSENX
    @davidrmoran Since I have limited tax deferred space, I hold my PONAX in a taxable. Despite holding it for many years, I am showing a loss due to taxable distributions and recent price declines.
    I'm also going to get out (or mostly out) if/when PONAX breaks even. I know that's not necessarily a good investment strategy, so I may act earlier and book a loss.
  • "Core" bond fund holdings
    Hi guys, For those that hold American Funds ABNDX (Bond Fund of America) is listed at MFO as a core bond fund. It has a MFO Risk Rating of 1 (Very Conserative) and a MFO Rating of 4 (Above Average). I don't currently own this fund; but, I just might in the nearterm as I expand my fixed income sleeve from nine to twelve funds. In addition, I need to learn more about their new fund MIAQX. I'll be calling my advisor next week to see if I can not get more information on this new offering. Generally, they do a lucheon sponsored by American Funds to present their new offerings. The last new offering that I bought was New World and that was a good number of years ago. With this, they might have marked me off their ... free ... lunch list. In addition, JHNBX, NEFRX, PINCX are three other fixed income funds that I'am looking at as well. JHNBX has a MFO Risk Rating of 2 (conserative) and a MFO Rating of 3 (Average) ... NEFRX has a MFO Risk Rating of 2 (Conserative) and a MFO Rating of 5 (Best) ... and, PINCX has a MFO Risk Rating of 2 (Conserative) and a MFO Rating of 5 (Best).