I'm always concerned but when I see an uptrend I invest until it's gone. Over the years I have learned that the "experts" can't predict the future and definitely not the coming weeks-months. After a big dive, bonds just like stocks usually come back. The Fed is also supporting several bond categories, including Munis.
How many times I have heard the experts are concerned about stocks and especially the top tech companies in the last 3 months? hundred times and QQQ keeps going up like crazy.

What's the saying? Treasuries are the last refuge of a scoundrel? Nope, that's not quite right. :-)
Still, Treasuries are the last refuge of lots of people. So they tend to hold up better than higher credit risk securities. And when the whole market, including Treasuries, are realizing interest rate risk, short term holds up better than long term.
So short term Treasury funds including VFISX held up better than other bond funds last March. But VFISX didn't "navigate" especially well. Here's a M* chart comparing the March 1 - May 1 performance of this fund vs. its autopilot (index) peer VSBSX. The latter gave both a smoother ride and better performance.
They have similar durations, currently 2.0-2.1 years. The Vanguard Index tracks the 1-3 year index. Notice that Barclays 1-5 year Treasury index, with a duration of about 2.5 years had a tad more volatility. That was the price for its better performance as the overall interest rate trend continued downward.
Perhaps the difference in performance between VFISX and VSBSX can be explained by the fact that the former is allowed to hold up to 20% in agency bonds, while the latter holds only Treasuries.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates that China has yet to break through the material science that goes into the latest microscopic chips, despite throwing money at the challenge of successive programs, the latest commanding over $ 20 billion of dollars. Its high-end chip industry is ten years behind, but in ten years the infrastructure for global cyber dominance will already be in place.In short, the United States controls the global semiconductor ecosystem, working closely with Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. All Washington had to do at the end of May was to move their fingers and TCMS of Taiwan instantly cut the chips to Huawei, suddenly condemning the company’s global G5 quest.
Britain cannot stay with Huawei even if it wants to. US Congress Won’t Authorize Branch of Chinese State – Serving Xi’s Doctrine civil-military merger – acquire global control over a key technological break point.
China is already in Germany...Any telecommunications group aiming to pursue Huawei’s G5 plans in these circumstances commits financial suicide. Deutsche Telekom internal documents speak of “Armageddon” if the German firm is forced to replace 3 billion euros of Huawei equipment already installed. Armageddon is what they are going to get.

https://fr24news.com/a/2020/07/china-has-already-peaked-and-faces-economic-stagnation.html

Mr. Seed is able to provide interesting data and thoughts.
With his knowledge of the bond world, he indeed should be a very wealthy man.
'Course, this statement:
"Summary: Don’t Listen to Bloomberg, Treasuries Aren’t for Everyone, at Least at These Rates."
He does note the money that can be made during falling yields, but IMHO; he could have dedicated a few more words regarding this.
I'm reminded of the period of falling yields after the melt in 2008. At the time, I also watched some CNBC tv. The commentators would mention falling Treasury yields and a fairly standard verbal statement would be, "you're not going to get much for your money with those." These folks, I presume; have enough financial wisdom to know what happens to bond pricing when the yields are falling. I watched numerous times expecting one of them to say that when yields are falling you may make good money from the price increases. Nope !!!
And from where do folks think a lot of the price appreciation arrives for the more plain vanilla balanced funds, be they moderate or conservative, during these past decades. Sure........the bonds.
Two and one half years chart of BAGIX v AGG v SPY . I used this time period, as 2018 had several bumps for equity, not counting the big bump on Christmas eve of 2018. So, if one held a decent bond fund or even the etf AGG, your holdings on those clunky bonds provided, eh? The point for the etf, is that these can provide, too; although I prefer a proven active managed bond fund at this time. Using sector etf's in bondland will allow one to build whatever mix you choose. Choices for a mixer are vast, as never before.
Lastly, we've traveled this bond turf many times. If you feel that yields may continue to move lower, you'll make money with quality bonds. If the hot equity market is going to melt, you'll likely do well with Treasury issues. If you are sure yields are going to move higher, then time to assess whatever bonds you're invested. If one finds an alternate, long/short or other magic box fund that is of interest, compare its life span to say a, FBALX or even VWINX to discover the ability of the fund to provide for profits.
Some of the investment grade bond funds have been flat for a few weeks (too much money after equity, I suspect). This week has found more positive moves (price). Perhaps the bond folks are buying on the cheap, or hedging that equity is a bit too hot.
I don't know.
The ultimate consideration for one's portfolio is capital preservation and that you are comfortable with your choices. More now, than ever before; one has every which way to customize a portfolio.
Take care,
Catch

I don't bother with the name because I never call TRP. All my funds have been in the last 20 years at Fidelity + Schwab. The only TRP fund I have ever held was PRWCX, which is one of the best allocation funds for many years.
I keep a very simple system with credit cards.
Penfed for any gas at the pump = 5% cash back. I used this card abroad too with no fees.
Everything else Fidelity 2% cash back. I don't want/need more cards with more complication and calculation
Wait, Amazon has a 5% back so I opened an account last year but the card is not in my wallet. I buy more every year.
When abroad I use Schwab ATM for cash. Schwab pays for all fees globally and why I only take out small amounts several times.

@MSF From the M* article:

For example, ESG investors obviously expect the third part of their acronym, governance, to improve their portfolios’ performance. Their environmental and social concerns less clearly reflect self-interest, but ESG managers maintain that environmental and social concerns pose material risks that investors must consider, and that companies that manage such risks well will make their businesses more sustainable.

To which I reply horses--t. A livable planet is in everybody's self-interest, rightwing political propaganda notwithstanding. Climate change is real and it's coming for our portfolios--and our lives. Ostensibly retirement plans are supposed to be the ultimate long-term investors, investing for the entirety of their employees' careers. A 22-year old employee today can look for being in 401ks of various companies for some 43 years from today, during which climate change will have a significant impact on his/her portfolio. Saying otherwise is sticking one's head in the sand.

The funds will still be open via direct investments. So if one should later decide to start a position and hold them through a third party (e.g. a brokerage), one should be able to buy shares directly and then transfer the position.
I did this years ago, though I don't recall with which fund. I have also seen verbiage to the effect that a newly opened position cannot be transferred to an intermediary for six months. This Wasatch prospectus change doesn't impose any restrictions on transferring shares.
Though it is always a gamble as to whether the fund distributor will honor the terms in (or absent from) a prospectus.

“The average money market fund is now offering dividends of about 0.09%.”
That doesn’t sound right. I don’t invest in money market funds, so have no idea what the better ones return. I just checked my cash substitute, TRBUX. At the end of June Fidelity is showing a 30-day yield of 2.31% with an average weighted maturity of only 1.3 years and a duration of just 1 year. YTD it’s up about 2% - but provided a wild ride during the March / April period.
TRBUX

Hi Sir Old_Skeet, you are exactly right.
In my experiences, the first 100K 'balance' in our portfolio is so hard to get with all the market gains/401K div-redisbributions. The 2nd, 3rd 100K gained are easier than the first 100K [after 5-7 yrs or so].... So are the subsequent gained monies. You may have same feelings once reaching 1M [then 2M].. We did have a great bull run since 2009 when I first started investion. Think the rules for 7.5 years for doubling your total assets work well here [unless we have a massive recession/depression - contractions which we are facing right now]
Couch potatoes and picking mutual funds that you like work well too if you have no time to fiddle around. Hard to time the market these days; we have to trust the managers that we hired to run our Mutual Funds or ETFs. Although stocks may appear cheap still these days. We may have Dows @ 35K by next few years - [12 months]; we did have NASDAQ at records highs recently [yesterday]
fwiw
regards

Hi johnN, Thanks for posting the article.
If one has the right risk tolerance assesment and follows it then they will do well overtime. Let me explain my thoughts. When equites have had the strong run that they have had of late then most investors should find themselves equity heavy. I know I have. With this, sell some equity and book your profit and move it on the other side of your portfolio which most likely will be the income side that holds mostly your cash and bond positions.
And, should the stock market have another swoon most likely the income side will then provide some need ballast for the portfolio to lessen the effect of the falling stock market prices and it's swoon. As equity valuations fall this should put one heavy on the income side and light on the equity side. Then rebalance and move some money to the equity side staying within the confines of your asset allocation, of course. Then play the rebound with rising equity prices as the stock market recovers you should find yourself equity heavy again. Then repeat the process.
This is not rocket science; but, I call this throtteling my portfolio and for many this seems hard to do. However, I have followed this process for many years ... and, I plan to keep doing it ... hopefully ... for many more years to come. Why? Because it works.
I wish all ... "Good Investing."
I am, Old_Skeet

https://www.morningstar.com/articles/989371/were-forecasting-a-strong-long-run-economic-recovery
We're Forecasting a Strong Long-Run Economic Recovery
We don't think the market's engaging in irrational exuberance.
Preston Caldwell
Jun 30, 2020
The Morningstar US Market Index has come thundering back since its late March nadir and is now down merely 7% year to date, even as the coronavirus pandemic persists. While many investors are wondering if the market is exhibiting irrational exuberance, we think the rebound has been broadly warranted, as we forecast a strong long-run recovery in the U.S. economy. We expect U.S. GDP to drop 5.1% in 2020 but surge back in 2021 and experience further catch-up growth in following years. By 2024, we think U.S. GDP will recover to just 1% below our expectations before the pandemic.

The whole rotating-discount/cash-back thing is a turnoff to me. Every quarter or month you need to remember which card to use to maximize which benefits ... too much work! I stick w/my Amex Plat and Amazon Prime Visa and keep things simple so I can worry about other more important things. :)

Hi sir MSF...BOA credit probably one if best credit card around, give 5_10% off on certain places frequently use (this quater starbuck dumkin donuts and LaMadelin)...also 3% cash bsck gas restaurants and 2% everything else. We like our merrilllynch advisor know him for many yrs charges 1% annually and only minimal in managed acct

Yep - To each his own. 25-30 years ago I ran into debt & spending issues related to credit cards. Going to 100% cash (except where credit is absolutely necessary) really helped turn things around. That was than. This is now. Today, I still have the same “dirty” $100 in my wallet it held in early March, as credit is safer to handle in light of Covid-19.
To the ongoing discussion here, what I demand of my one credit card is: friendly 24-hour service, reps who speak English and are easy to access, honest dealing, no sales pressure or product promotions. My company (Elan) throws in a few hundred dollars a year as some kind of bonus. That’s nice, but not the reason I chose them. Now, just think of all the investment research and strategic decision making you might be doing with the time otherwise allotted to deciding which cc to use this week or next? An investment in knowledge always pays the best dividend.

For us we have Vanguard 13 years, schwab 11 years, and merrilledge 7 years. All are easy to talk to representatives, low cost trading, good bonddesks, schwab offers excellence research for stocks/mutual funds. All maintenance fees extremely low (for instance merrilledge charge you 0.7% annually fees but you need only 100ks And 1%if less 100k in acct [rest can be self managed without financial advisor])
Mama has Fidelity and we use it to buy etf and bonds, its reasonable but I heard they have best cd/ visa cards 2% cash back
Which firms do you folks prefer

A decade ago I looked fairly closely into different brokerages' bond services. What I found at the time was that while offerings were of course different, they tended to rely on third party services for inventory. So their offerings at any given time, while different, were similar. Fidelity would offer the same bonds at a lower price than Schwab.
Things may have changed, but a very small spot check (1 bond) suggests that this pricing differential remains. Calif (Sacramento) muni, callable starting in two years, maturing in five, CUSIP 786073BG0. Schwab price: 118.636 (2.394% YTW), Fidelity price: 118.536 [sic] (2.407% YTW). Both charge a $1/bond commission. I've bought bonds at Fidelity. Because of the higher cost, I haven't at Schwab.
If you're looking at keeping $100K at Merrill, BofA credit cards can come out better. Their cash rewards cards (with the $100K balance) pay 5.25% on the category of your choice (e.g. online purchases), 3.5% on grocery and warehouse purchases, and 1.75% on everything else. (The higher rebates are limited to $2500 in purchases/quarter). Of it you travel a bit (which can include mass transit, zoos(!) and other oddities), there's a cash back card that pays 2.625% on everything. The catch there is that the rebate must be used to cover travel costs.
With respect to mutual funds, Merrill Edge is limited in its offerings. Essentially, just NTF share classes are available. So you can't buy lower cost institutional shares even if the total cost of ownership would be less for you. Fidelity and Schwab are better in this regard. Fidelity also enable you to buy additional shares of a TF fund for $5 while at Schwab it's still $50. Vanguard's advantage is that it offers some institutional shares with lower mins than at Fidelity or Schwab. My impression is that T. Rowe Price's third party fund offerings are slim, but TRP hasn't posted its "catalogue" for years.
ETF and stock trading are free at Merrill, Fidelity, Schwab, and Vanguard. At TRP they can cost $20, unless the ETF is on their NTF list.
IMHO where TRP shines is in it broad offering of fine mutual funds. Essentially what @rforno said. In addition, it offers a free individual 401(k) plan with Roth option, as does Vanguard. Schwab doesn't allow Roths, nor does Fidelity. Merrill doesn't offer a free individual 401k.
I've found TRP's service to be on par with Fidelity and Schwab. I have found service at Merrill and Vanguard wanting.

Is Trow better than Vanguard Fidelity? What are their best qualities
For us we have Vanguard 13 years, schwab 11 years, and merrilledge 7 years. All are easy to talk to representatives, low cost trading, good bonddesks, schwab offers excellence research for stocks/mutual funds. All maintenance fees extremely low (for instance merrilledge charge you 0.7% annually fees but you need only 100ks And 1%if less 100k in acct [rest can be self managed without financial advisor])
Mama has Fidelity and we use it to buy etf and bonds, its reasonable but I heard they have best cd/ visa cards 2% cash back
Which firms do you folks prefer

Howdy folks,
I've been a major T. Rowe Price investor for going on 20 years. I call them T. Rowe Price. That's their name.
rono

"Nothing follows"? Jeez, that seems a bit cruel ... or perhaps despairing in a Yeats sort of way: "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold; Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world" sort of way.
T. Rowe Price Multi-Strategy Total Return keeps ticking up. Positive by 4.7% YTD, as of 7/6/20. Cheap enough to be in the running for "the new 60/40," at least if you assume that the "40" in question is fated to fall flat. From my perspective, the challenges are my inability to explain to myself what exactly the strategies do - I can repeat the words back to myself after I read them, but they don't stick - and, by its nature as a quant fund, the portfolio's positioning is inexplicable.
Queens Road Value keeps ticking along, down 9% YTD which is still top tier for a LCV fund. Sort of regrettable that it's losing assets even in years when its relative and absolute performance as both excellent (2017, up 20% and top 10% performer - investors flee). Increasingly it's the poster child for a "friends and family" fund: Queens Road manages over a billion for rich folks but can't get much past $30 million here.
The BlackRock and DFA ETFs-in-registration are interesting, at the very least. The active ETF / non-transparent active ETF development should be changing a lot of calculations.
Chip thought Lynn's piece was his most useful ever, in part because she can make the translation of investment options into Excel. Charles's was a great change-of-pace and I dearly appreciate Ed's willingness to become more directive about alternative investments.
- - - - -
Two personal notes. Yesterday Will's Covid test came back negative ("none detected"), eight days after its submission. Sadly, the tests still have a high false negative rate; research published in June by Johns Hopkins says that there's a 30% probability that a person with a negative result is actually positive. Still no symptoms, we remain cautious and cautiously optimistic.
Chip shared online part of my short reflection on the reciprocal relation between rights and responsibilities. That went about the way you'd expect. The angrier respondents - like the woman (founder of a public relations firm? Oh, good.) caught on camera destroying a mask display at her local Target store - sort of skipped "thinking about the argument" went straight to "outrage." The results fell into two camps: the "you can't make me do nuthin'" camp and the "if you can make me wear a mask, then I can make you give up red meat and get your sorry *ss to the gym" camp.
I wonder if learning to talk about "externalities" would help address either? Sometimes my actions affect only me. Other times, my actions affect you. "Externalities" is the term economists give for the effects on you. Sometimes those effects are welcome; if I improve the exterior of my house, the value of your adjacent property goes up. That's a positive externality. If I shoot wildlife and dump their carcasses to rot in my yard, that's a negative externality.
Every culture implicitly decides what level of negative externality justifies some sort of sanction. If you get drunk at home, no sanction. Drunk and disorderly, some sanction. Drunk while operating a motor vehicle, major sanction. In general, as the magnitude of your effect on others risks, so does the swiftness and scope of the sanction. A person's decision to eat meat (negligible externality) is seen as a lot different from their decision to poison a public waterway (major externality).
All of which only works if people are willing to listen to each other, agree on the underlying facts and discuss the response that best reflects our shared responsibilities as members of the same neighborhood, city, nation, culture or whatever.
- - - - -
Take great care and, as ever, thanks!
David

I believe the barometer has a good value in accessing short term market movement which is difficult to achieve. Good work :-)
In the last several years I find Tony Dwyer to be pretty good at forecasting short term market movements. Yesterday has said the following (link)

These articles have been published when the market were lower by 5,10 and 15%. I have heard in the last 10 years that rates can only go up, that the stock market is overvalued for years, that inverted yield signals top, that PE + PE10 are too high.
One day it will be right, I just like to know exactly when

Thanks for your opinion.
I would also like to read your thoughts on the Morningstar forums. I was told that you were put on suspended status. Has M* lifted the suspension?

These articles have been published when the market were lower by 5,10 and 15%. I have heard in the last 10 years that rates can only go up, that the stock market is overvalued for years, that inverted yield signals top, that PE + PE10 are too high.
One day it will be right, I just like to know exactly when

Old_Skeet, your method is good but has lots of moving parts. Just an observation, not criticism :-)
A typical rebalance achieves similar results when stock prices go down and you keep switching from bonds to stocks to keep the same asset allocation. That is a good way until a black swan shows up and every time you buy more stocks on the way down you keep losing more.
The question of timing occupied my brain for many years.
I always want to be fully invested as long as I can. In the last 10-11 years, I was in cash for about 12 weeks, which means I was fully invested 98% of the time.
Until 2008-9, when I was younger with a much smaller portfolio. I just stayed the course because my fund managers (SGENX,OAKBX,FAIRX) played it right. After I lost 25% in 2008 I decided that the only way not to lose is to set up a simple selling %.
From 2009 and for the next several years, I would sell any stock fund I owned if it lost more than 6% and bought a bond fund. I would sell any bond fund that lost over 3% and searched for another more conservative fund. If I could not find any bond fund then I would go to cash.
When stocks bottomed and rebounded, I only increased stocks using a pyramid up. That means that every time I buy more stock mutual fund the price must be higher than the previous one,
In 2018 at retirement, I made my selling criteria stricter. I only trade stocks short term (hours to days) using charts. I used bond funds most times. Any bond fund I own that loses more than 1% I sell and then I look for a better bond fund, if I can't find any I go to cash.
BTW, the above is probably too complicated. Stay fully invested and buy and hold is a good way for most investors :-)