FYI: Doomsday scenarios don’t have to come with the hype, speed, and spectacle of a Hollywood blockbuster. The biggest threats today are slower-moving and decidedly less visual: The U.S.-China trade war could become an all-out conflict that plunges the world into recession and undoes globalization; a Japan-like deflationary funk could spread through the U.S. and Europe; or state-sponsored hackers could paralyze critical infrastructure, undermining confidence and sparking a cyberwar.
A relatively healthy U.S. economy, along with global central banks’ willingness to cut interest rates, have allowed some measure of optimism, despite alarming headlines. In fact, investors’ equity holdings as a share of their financial assets hovered around 30% earlier this year; the last time it was higher was in the late 1990s.
But that’s exactly why some strategists, fund managers, and financial advisors are beginning to consider the investment versions of survivalists’ supplies, including Spam, gas masks, and gold. “It’s really the first time in seven or eight years that we are starting to meaningfully derisk across portfolios,” says David Carter, chief investment officer at Lenox Wealth Advisors, which oversees $2 billion. “Whether the tariff war escalates or lingers, the downside is a no-growth world where risk sentiment evaporates. And central banks around the world are trying to provide a safety net, but it’s a small net with a lot of holes.”
Regards,
Ted
https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-to-prepare-your-portfolio-for-the-worst-when-the-worst-is-a-real-possibility-51566603417?mod=past_editions

GMO has been saying the same thing for at least four years, you can look it up. One day they'll be right!

FYI: Emerging markets stocks will bury U.S. equities over the next seven years, according to GMO.
The asset manager has predicted that shares of large U.S. companies will lose 3.7 percent annually over that period, while emerging equities will deliver a 5.2 percent real return on an annual basis. With international equities expected to post relatively small gains, the firm predicted that emerging value stocks will have the strongest annual returns at 9.8 percent.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1gtwj5y79j84k/GMO-Says-Emerging-Markets-Stocks-Will-Trounce-U-S-Equities

It is true that while Merrill Lynch invented cash management accounts (CMAs) 42 years ago, Vanguard takes the opposite approach and focuses strictly on brokerage services. It was just three weeks ago that it discontinued its Vanguard Advantage CMA service. A service that it only offered to Voyager Select ($500K+) customers for $30/year and to Flagship ($1M+) customers for free.
But I wouldn't get too excited about Merrill Edge. This is a brokerage that sometimes sweeps free cash into a 0.05% APR bank account (Vanguard pays 2.11% on its VMFXX settlement fund), and sometimes just leaves the cash siting in the brokerage earning 0.00%. Even when it pays that paltry interest on the sweep money, it deposits that interest back into the 0% brokerage account where it may sit earning nothing. (What other bank refuses to credit interest on an account directly to the account that earned the interest?)

fascinating discussion. It's been a good 10 years in the market so I have reduced equity holdings to about 50%. More of a tactical move though. Probably more driven by my fears of what the great idiot is going to do. I have alot in money markets and short term treasuries right now. Waiting for some kind of move and will probably open an initial position in IOFIX. @bee what are you doing with your "income milk."

@Bee, I have a large cash pile from account consolidations in recent years that for the most part has yet to be deployed into anything other than rolling-over t-bills. I've been using that dry powder to buy new / add to existing positions in recent weeks to my otherwise rather healthy longterm portfolios and am becoming more aggressive b/c I hate to have it just sitting there.
(I don't consider that cash as part of my investment 'holdings' per se, which is why I say that 90% of what I'm invested in are stocks and stock funds -- I don't own much FI or alts or commodities, etc.)

@rforno, if you are presently 90 % invested in equities and your equities tank, how will you by equities hand over fist? One needs cash or non-equity correlated assets to exchange into equities when they fall in price.
Over the last couple of years I have milk my equity cows when they have out performed. That milk represents growth above the long term average for that investment ( for example I use yearly growth above 10% as my trigger for Large Cap).
This "milk" is stored for future retirement income to pay for things) or, as you mentioned, to potentially buy things on sale.
So far I have enough stored "income milk" for 3 - 5 years. This should keep me from selling my equities when they temporarily tank.
My next goal is to store some dry powder from out sized gains if equities continue to out perform.

@rforno, if you are presently 90 % invested in equities and your equities tank, how will you buy equities "hand over fist"? One needs cash or non-equity correlated assets to exchange into equities when they fall in price.
Over the last couple of years I have milk my equity cows when they have out performed. That milk represents growth above the long term average for that investment (for example, I use yearly growth above 10% as my "milking trigger" for Large Cap).
This "milk" is stored for future retirement income (to pay for things) or, as you mentioned, to potentially buy things on sale.
So far I have enough stored "income milk" for 3 - 5 years. This should keep me from being forced to sell equities when they are temporarily under valued.
My next goal is to store some dry powder from out sized gains if equities continue to out perform. This could serve as a source of money to buy equities when they temporarily go on sale.
Your thoughts?

Everyone said the GFC aftermath was a 'generational' buying opportunity. IMO the past 10 years were a cheap-debt fueled 'bull' (key word!) market that was artificially supported by QE, ZIRP, and what-not from the Fed. Yes, it was a fantastic ride, but I still think when the music stops, and the ZIRP drug wears off, the resulting crash in equities will make 07-08 look like a wobble and be the real 'generational' buying opportunity of a lifetime.
Note that I am most certainly NOT a perma-anything, and my accounts are 90% long invested in equities and I'm definitely not sitting all in cash. But when/as the time comes, I will be buying equities on my watchlist hands-over-fists on the way down with the intention of holding 'forever' in my long-term accounts. Embrace the volatility, if you're still in the early or midlife accumulation stage!
In terms of bonds? Who knows ... after '07 I was kind of expecting given all the money-printing, for bond yields to be inching towards 1980s-levels, but that wasn't to be. However, if we ever hit 8, 10, 12% on Treasuries, absolutely I will buy with extreme prejudice, b/c I saw what similar holdings turned out for my relatives back then, and how well they were able to live off them. But I don't see that happening anytime soon, so .. whatever. I stick with stocks.

How arrogant, naive and conceited does one have to be to believe you can predict not only the next high yield bear market and economic reccession but the recovery that you are so supremely confident will occur after them? Mauldin has been making terrible predictions for years that have failed to come to fruition. Even the world's top five highest paid economists who've predicted ten of the last five recessions don't make such presumptuous predictions.

I have been reading about all the woes about to befall the junk bond market because of how levered companies are, the maturity wall, etc. for several years now. I would love to exploit it but the opportunity of a lifetime and most likely to never be seen in anyone’s lifetime was 2009 when the Merrill Lynch High Yield Master II Index was up something like 56%. Back in 2008 junk bonds were predicting a default rate (21%) much worse than what occurred during the Great Depression (16%). The next recession may be shallower than most predict and junk bonds at worst will be down more akin to late 2015/early 2016 when oil prices crashed. We heard this same pessimistic song and dance about junk bonds in late 2018 but in reality what occurred was all times highs in 2019.

@wxman123 Hello. How does Firstrade manage NOT to charge any commission at all on standard stock trades? I just opened an account. I see that electronic statements are the norm. Paper statements through the mail incur a charge. But are not all such companies required still, to send official tax documents by snail-mail? They wanted a phone number, so I gave them 111-111-1111. The wonderful system gave me no arguments. I've not funded it, yet.

I'm not sure but I've been with FT for many years and never had a problem. Very secure, I get an email with every login. The website is basic but easy to use. You also need to download quicken files to update if you use Quicken BUT they do offer free MS and still use the older (usable) format. I don't think brokerages earn much charging 4.95 a trade. The free trades is probably a loss leader. They pay almost nothing on idle cash so you will need to buy a cash equivalent fund/etf.

From the article:

Now, if your local library system doesn’t provide this access, you can also look at state libraries, university libraries, or other libraries in the region for which you are eligible.

For example, the NYPL is free to anyone in NYS. (Years ago, you had to live or work in Manhattan to get a card.) And it has the Morningstar Investment Research Center.
https://www.nypl.org/blog/2012/12/05/breaking-news-morningstar-available-nypl-home
So if you live in Buffalo, you're all set.
New Mexico residents qualify for a free library card to the public library of Albuquerque and Bernalillo County . That gives them access to the Morningstar Investment Research Center.
Look around. Your friendly library doesn't have to be local.

@msf: My local friendly library "kicked" it out the door about 4 years ago !
Derf

While I agree that VAs are widely oversold, you'll notice that the second and third paragraphs above are comparing VA deferred annuities with fixed income immediate annuities. Not especially meaningful, but it makes for a great sound bite.
Do you care what the average VA costs, any more you care what the average fund costs? Or do you care what your annuity or your fund costs? Vanguard offers a VA that costs 0.48% (average across the funds offered in the annuity). And unlike the "usual" VAs that charge "stiff penalties", low cost annuities like Vanguard's charge no penalties.
https://investor.vanguard.com/annuity/variable
Likewise, do you care what the average SPIA pays, or what you can get by shopping around? BlueprintIncome.com says that the best current payout rate on a $100K joint life annuity for a 60 year old couple (i.e. younger than the example in the article) is 5.586%. That's quite a bit more than the 4.38% average rate cited in the article. (Admittedly, I'm ignoring the quality of insurer, but then so is the article.)
The article says that according to Vanguard's Monte Carlo Nest Egg Calculator, using the 4% rule with a retirement investment portfolio (with what asset mix, it doesn't say), you've got a 9% chance of having no money left over for heirs. That's a euphemistic way of saying that you have a 9% chance of running out of money while you still need it.
The point of insurance is to protect against worst case events. What happens if the worst happens and you live longer than 30 years? :-) Your odds of being left destitute increase.
The articles presents a particular perspective, and in doing so shades wording, frames numbers, and speaks in generalities that advance this perspective. That's not to say there isn't validity in the picture it draws. Just that it's drawing only part of the picture.

Weren’t they saying this about GE a few years ago?

@MikeW: while I might not buy it today, I do have a hefty slice of BRUFX, an allocation fund that makes a large distribution annually. It hasn’t kept up in the last three years but I’m hanging on to the low-cost shares in the interest of avoiding CG taxes. It’s a bit quirky, might have a succession problem, and cannot be purchased from or transferred to a brokerage platform.

PRWCX has been a buyer of GE as of late and David Giroux commented that he wouldn't be surprised if it was his best performing holding over the next few years. I'd like to hear his take on these accusations.
Mentioned here:
https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/47062/consuelo-mack-s-wealthtrack-guest-david-giroux-manager-trp-appreciation-fund-prwcx

Hi @BenWP
This is a link from the Forbes article, that you may have already checked; but I'll place regardless. The Senate version is also within the article.
Secure Act............. non-spousal inheritance tax implications.
Go to the money, eh? IMHO, this proposed legislation travels directly to what is likely one of the biggest pools of money at this time........IRA's and related held by the boomers.
Michigan in 2012 (Republican governor/legislature) successfully traveled this road, requiring the MI Supreme Court to uphold legal challenges. The road being, changing the taxation of pension monies; but targeting a narrow age group of boomers. This in itself, was immoral, IMHO.
I argued every which way of the negative side(s) of this with emails to legislators and the state treasurer. As the years have moved along, some of the negative has shown its face. I personally know a number of retired boomers who decided to make the move to Florida (no pension monies taxation); due in part to the Michigan pension taxation changes. So, this tax base is now gone from Michigan......tax base = monies spent locally and anything else one may imagine that these folks would have spent in their state (Michigan). So, the state no longer gets the tax on pension monies, or other monies that would have been spent here. $'s gone, gone, gone and never to return. I do believe I'm becoming redundant here. :)
Just my 2 cents worth.
Take care of you and yours,
Catch

I have held VIG for several years during which time it has out performed VIGDX. What is the big deal about the OEF when the ETF is available? One pundit claims the OEF is actively managed and the ETF is a slavish index fund; seems to me the superiority of the latter is obvious.

We’ve ridden our GE stock down about 75% over the past couple years, so it’s such a small part of our portfolio now that it matters very little if it goes bust. It’s not worth selling at this point because I would have to hire an accountant to figure out our cost basis for tax returns. We’ve owned GE for 40 years and it’s our only individual stock, a gift from my wife’s grandfather. Fortunately we sold shares over the years for down payments on homes, so it’s paid off in the long term.