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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • 7 best t row price funds for retires
    Ive had Prwcx for 20 years-Love it!! I wish other choices would do half as well
  • Reviewing Funds YTD - with comments
    I have a fair amount of overlap with funds previously mentioned. Among those not mentioned . . .
    YTD performance is per M* rather than any picture of my performance.
    Neuberger Berman Genesis (NBGNX) has done just fine @ -5.44 YTD . I'm glad I held on when I was selling funds to simplify, and rebalance, back in December-January. Their thesis still made sense to me when push came to shove.
    Value Line Mid-Cap (VLIFX) is -4.98. I bought some on march 18th. That has worked out pretty well.
    Merk Hard Currency (MERKX) is at -2.7. I'm so far in the red on that one. I doubled down on that and USAGX (a gold fund) after Trump was elected. Maybe it would take off if we had Weimar-style inflation. I hope it never takes off. But I'll probably hold it until the end.
    Fidelity Floating Rate (FFRHX) is holding up better than VWELX at only -4.71. I bought it as part of my inflation hedge. Compared to MERKX, I feel like the guy that stopped hitting himself in the head with a rock.
    I'm not too happy with the DoubleLine bond funds I bought. Their infrastructure fund (BILDX) is only +.13. And their low duration is off -.86. I'll be looking for opportunities to get out ahead with both.
    Fidelity Real Estate Income (FRIFX) has been a party-pooper. It's at -12.69 while TIAA Real Estate (TCREX) is only off -7.90. FRIFX was supposed to be the less volatile real estate option. Considering I bought them after selling Vanguard's realty index (VGSIX), I shouldn't kick too much. It's off 12.48.
    Switching out of Vanguard's small cap index for Boston-Walden's small cap ESG (BOSOX) has not worked out yet. It's off -17.72 while the index is only off -13.51.
    I still have high hopes for ESG moving forward. Not sure how long I'll have to wait. Parnassus, and Boston-Walden midcaps have been nothing to write home about compared to the mid-caps mentioned above.
    TIAA-CREF's ESG bond fund TSBRX has worked out better so far at +3.59
    Janus Henderson Small Cap Value has been a lamb led to slaughter. The less said of it, the better.
    Speaking of the funds that got away during my rebalance. Nicholas (NICSX) is only off -4.15. But I was worried about the succession issues after going through tribulations with Homestead Small Cap (HSCSX). That started to wobble after Morris and Teach retired. And began to founder after Ashton retired. I got out some time ago.
    I dumped Royce Special Equity (RYSEX). There are other funds that watch the balance sheets, and still manage to buy a winning stock every once in a while.
    I dumped Mairs and Powers funds when I realized it was silly to own something because I went to college in St. Paul 45 years ago.
  • Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF Offers Safety But With A Low Yield
    Over three months, this fund with an SEC yield of 0.15% is going to return around 4 basis points. With a duration of 1.9 years, a 2 basis point increase in rates (+0.02%) could wipe out the total three month return. (A small decrease in rates could likewise double the total return, but we're basically at ZIRP, so a rate decline seems less likely.)
    I use three months because one can find brokered three month CDs with 0.20% APY. That's a higher yield than the ETF with no interest rate risk to principal. Credit risk is similar: FDIC insured vs. backed by full faith and credit of the treasury.
    The downside of CDs is that liquidity is limited - one can only get cash out every three months. However, if one is looking to stash cash for under three months, then this ETF is going to give you even less than 4 basis points while exposing you to interest rate risk. A mattress would not be appreciably worse.
    Brokered CDs can make sense for stashing cash in an IRA if one is focused on safety. That's because moving money from trustee to trustee, especially short term, is troublesome. But if one's cash is in a taxable account, one can just use an internet bank. No penalty CDs are still yielding over 1% and they put a floor under your return in case bank rates drop. Should rate rise, you can cash out and buy a higher yielding CD.
  • So, you mean that just because I want the economy to be all better and back to normal...
    As for the economy, every one of these spikes will cause people to stay cautious, minimize spending, and continue to hunker down. That will cause the economy to continue in the dumps, in turn causing the crazies to call for more opening up, in turn causing the cautious to disengage more. Economic death spiral.
    It is discouraging how US failed comparing to New Zealand, Australia, Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore where their COVID19 situation have been stabilized. The fatality toll is now at 112,000 cases and counting. Only until yesterday, the stock market finally woke up as the health issue still remains. While business are opening up and new infection cases are increasing. This virus will stay with us for many years. Hopefully the new vaccines will keep it under control.
  • (RE-DO), still crazy and playing again.....(NOT) Exited AAA gov't bonds
    For the honest side of life. I retract the EXIT of the original subject line. I wrote previous, in a reply: "The sell fits our mix, and is not a recommendation for anyone else."
    Paul Simon lyric.....modified by me:
    I met my old lover (investing)
    On the street last night
    She seemed so glad to see me
    I just smiled
    And we talked about some old times
    And we drank ourselves some beers
    Still crazy after all these years
    Oh Still crazy after all these years
    So, sold about 28% of the portfolio equity in mid-February and bought ZROZ (AAA zero coupon bonds). Good call.....well, yes; to a point. Watched the profit become +15% due to COVID shutdown and then the equity market melt. I let this run too long and kept +5% profit. An, oh well.
    'Course we're aware of the Fed backstop of "everything". Then the equity turn around.....my, what a CRAZY run!!!
    My topic line here about an exit of AAA bonds found my concern with how many Treasury bonds were going to be issued and who the hell was going to buy........ AAA bond pricing was also fading away.
    Here we are again, back into ZROZ............and yes; folks are buying most types of Fed. backed bonds........why not, eh???
    Don't know about the equity sell down today (June 11). Perhaps a short lived rotation into whatever by the large players.
    Excerpt from below link: The Fed also said it would maintain bond purchases at "the
    current pace" of around $80 billion per month in Treasuries and
    $40 billion per month in agency and mortgage backed securities.

    Fed. Treasury purchases, etc.
    NOTE: those holding managed, quality bond funds should discover decent returns, as of late.
    Some day in the, future I/we will have to stop playing with the money this way.
    I do believe I'm low on coffee intake.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • Dr Copper is back working Full Time
    GLFOX is more like owning the railroads, electric company, and waterworks from Monopoly. All the infrastructure is already built. And half of that is utilities.
    YTD performance is in the same league as Vanguard's utility index (VUIAX), but pays a 5.2 yield vs. 2.52. I have been a happy owner for five years in the IRA. And I added it to the taxable during the recent excitement.
    While reviewing their portfolio I noticed they are nearly 18% cash.
  • Just when you think the market is overpriced
    @Baseball_Fan, Thanks for the shout-out. David mentioned Rondure Funds in his February, 2019
    Commentary. Just a bit here: “Rondure Global Advisors is newer investment adviser which is Grandeur Peak’s partner. Rondure, like Grandeur Peak, was launched by an alumna of the Wasatch Funds,” https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2019/02/as-the-world-turns-rondure-global-gains/
    Global equity funds are pretty far outside my normal investment zone. But I am now beginning to shade a bit more in that direction, since funds holding fixed income (like traditional balanced funds) are at a real disadvantage in this low rate environment. Also, I’ve been trying to get out of the U.S. (figuratively and literally) as I think we’re headed for a lot of chaos as November approaches - markets might not like it. U.S. appears “bubbly” as well.
    My first foray into any pure equity fund in many years was into Price’s developed foreign markets index fund, PIEQX, which I picked up in March and have already reduced by 30 or 40%. While it hasn’t leaped very far, all my other stuff has, and this one is the easiest to cut back on as its a spec position and not part of my normal allocation. It’s not a high octane fund by any measure. But the ER of .40 is appealing and TRP - much as I like them - have never excelled in the international arena. Past experience leads me to believe that, as international funds go, this one is relatively docile.
    You mention ROSOX. Let’s take a look. ER 1.10% isn’t bad for an actively managed international fund. Probably about average. Holdings: 60% Europe, 30% Asia - almost all of that in Japan. (Looks quite a bit like the index fund I own.) ROSOX is only 3 years old. That would normally chase me away - but it appears from David’s commentary that the managers are well experienced. Close call. I’d feel better with a fund that had been around at least 10 years. Better chance of having a stable investor base. The fund has already jumped about 10% from its March low. Not as cheap as it was than. (Woulda, coulda, shoulda.) Lipper gives it a 5 in “preservation.” That’s a coveted rating, as international funds tend to be more volatile than their domestic brethren. Not a bad choice. I’d perhaps look around a bit more before deciding.
    Now, will folks more familiar with international equity funds and / or Rondure please chime in?
  • EM Review: Stocks Soared by Most in 8 Years on Signs of Growth
    https://business.financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/stocks-soar-by-most-in-eight-years-on-signs-of-growth-em-review
    EM Review: Stocks Soared by Most in 8 Years on Signs of Growth
    Bloomberg News Lilian Karunungan, Netty Ismail and Justin Villamil
    June 5, 2020 4:28 PM EDT
    Last Updated June 8, 2020 1:36 AM EDT
    /(Bloomberg) — Emerging-market stocks posted their biggest gains in more than eight years last week as investors looked past U.S.-China tensions and protests in America to focus on the rolling back of economic lockdowns. Better-than-expected U.S. jobs data on Friday helped solidify the new-found optimism over economic growth. Developing-nation currencies posted their biggest weekly advance since March 2016./
    What are your favorite em funds or etf
    We have adding/Dca continously to Vwo and Vt past few weeks.
  • Why Many People Misunderstand Dividends, and the Damage This Does
    I'm thinking that some confuse amount invested with tax cost basis.
    Amount invested is simply what is paid out of pocket to purchase. While cost basis is made up of purchase amount plus any dividends and capital gains used to buy additional shares. At times amount invested and cost basis will be the same amount if one takes all distributions in cash, as I do, with no reinvestment of capital gains and dividends going back into the fund.
    My broker provided statements reflect amount invested, cost basis, along with total return for each asset held. In this way, I know where I stand from an amount invested and cost analysis along with total return performance for each asset held from the date of purchase. Total return performance is also provided for the account.
    I've got a few funds that are back of what I paid for them (mostly bond funds) but for the time held they are reflecting a positive total return. If sold, I could book a slight tax loss but also find joy in knowing I made money in them over the years held. I plan on keeping them as they are still producing a good income stream. In fact, some have paid out more money to me through the years owned than my cost of purchase. These payouts along with my growth of principal are what I call the organic growth of my money.
    I have found that by holding my mutual funds for an extended period of time affords me the organic growth on my money that I seek. Plus, when you trade around the edges, as I have done, adds a little more growth to the portfolio as well. In addition, I have found that buying during the pullbacks generally offers good upward opportunity over buying during a fully valued market.
    So, what is there not to understand about the power of dividends and how they help grow principal?
  • Why Many People Misunderstand Dividends, and the Damage This Does
    Hi, guys.
    This was a flagged discussion. The argument was that apkmetro plagiarized a Wall Street Journal article with only the sort of tweaks that a college sophomore could imagine getting away with. As I checked their homepage, their business model appears to depend on copying stuff from behind paywalls and posted tweaked versions.
    It's pretty bad. I'd prefer we not associate with, much less encourage, them.
    That said, johnN is pointing us to an article that makes valuable points, as the Journal often does. My compromise with my conscience is to share (a) the link to the legit story, (b) the intro paragraph and (c) the point of the article.
    Alex Edmans, Why Many People Misunderstand Dividends, and the Damage This Does https://wsj.com/articles/why-many-people-misunderstand-dividends-and-the-damage-this-does-11591454292, Wall Street Journal, 7 June 2020.
    Dr. Edmans is a professor of finance at London Business School.
    Over the past year, voices across the corporate and political spectrum have argued that companies are beholden to all stakeholders, not just shareholders. And indeed, many companies are recognizing these responsibilities in the current pandemic, with several paying furloughed workers and donating products. Investors have largely supported those efforts. But when it comes to corporate responsibility, there’s one red line that many shareholders say should never be crossed: the dividend.
    • companies are so manic about protecting their dividend that they're willing to cut workers in order to preserve it
    • dividends don't benefit investors because they're simply pulling money out of the company and lowering its share price
    • stock buybacks are different, and better, because buybacks are more flexible. You can execute them when it makes sense (Snowball laughs out loud given the transparent record of buying back overvalued shares in order to prop them up) and skip other years. Dividends are sort of a permanent entitlement.
    • in consequence, companies do stupid things to guard the dividend, investors overpay for stocks offering a dividend (you can lose 2-4% per annum in total returns) and it encourages investor complacency because they see dividend-payers are "buy it and forget it" stocks.
    • solutions? Have reporting services focus on total return, not share price appreciation, stats and have companies treat all future dividends as "special dividends," that is, as one time payouts that will be resumed if and only if economic circumstances justify it.

    • David, with thanks to johnN
  • Changes to First Eagle Fund of America
    The fund is changing focus from opportunistic ("event driven") value investing to intrinsic value investing, and adding an explicit requirement that 65% of its portfolio be invested in income-producing securities. As it migrates its portfolio, it expects to have a lot of turnover.
    Managers (people) come and go, but I can't recall seeing a subadvisor (management company) resigning. Usually it's fired by the fund family running the fund. Here, the fund's long time (30+ years) managers, Harold Levy and David Cohen created the submanagement company that is "resigning". If they simply wanted to close up shop, First Eagle could have hired the remaining managers and not had to overhaul the fund. All in all, the "resignation" seems rather strange.
    The in-house managers assigned by First Eagle have at best limited experience managing funds. Albertini is a manager of FEBAX, but he's the junior one of four, with just over a year's experience there. First Eagle describes Gupta as an associate manager of SGENX, but he doesn't appear in the fund's prospectus. It's a similar situation with Christian Heck who is described as an associate manger of SGOVX, but isn't in the fund's prospectus. In short, no lead management experience, and little experience at a level senior enough to even merit a mention in a prospectus.
    High turnover, inexperienced management, virtually a new fund (new objective). Hard to find any reason to consider this fund.
  • CATL - The Million Mile EV Battery Maker
    A “trigger point” for electric cars will occur once they overtake gasoline-powered vehicles around 2030-2035, Zeng said. That view is more ambitious than that of researchers such as BNEF, which expects the shift to take place a few years later.
    CATL, which is adding a production facility in Germany, is set to make more than 70% of batteries required by BMW, an early customer, Zeng said. CATL also works with Volkswagen’s Audi unit and is cooperating with Porsche, he said.
    a-million-mile-battery-from-china-could-power-your-electric-car
  • Gold stocks vs gold: it's rocket time
    Hi Vintage,
    Hope you're doing well and being safe.
    First off, I always maintain a couple of canaries to alert me to movement in the sector. Good or bad, this is where I like to play. Collecting coins for 65 years does things to you.
    I had purchases of ISVLF 1/30/19 @ .2231, 3/24/20 @ .2749, 4/6/20 @ .235. (currently @ .499)
    KOOYF 3/24/20 @ .16 (currently @ .255)
    TKRFF most recent on 4/6/20 @ .088 (currently @ .1405)
    Please keep in mind that these are penny silver mining stocks and you can rest assured that you will see massive volatility. It is COMMON to see 10% point swings in a day.
    And please let me repeat that the vast majority of precious metal mutual funds consist of mining stocks, albeit gold dominate. The bullion plays are mostly ETFs. Be very careful with bullion ETFs as they are taxable at collectible rates (i.e. keep them in deferred or exempt accounts). And I will mention again, I do not like bullion ETFs. Too many accounting issues that give me the creeps. For bullion, the first and foremost alternative is REAL PHYSICAL BULLION. Geez, go with bling is you must. For playing the sector, I like the mining stocks and over the years, silver has been my investment vehicle of choice. Originally per force as a GI bill econ major selling my restaurant stash into the Hunt Bros attempt to corner the market. Silver went up 10x to ~$50. Gold went up 2-3 to $850. Rono partied like a bloody maniac.
    I got into the miners during the Big Bonanza from 2002 to 2011. The leverage is enormous. I was buying Silver Wheaton between $2-4 per and it went to $43. ChaChing! My one and only Home Run.
    and so it goes,
    peace and flatten the curve,
    rono
  • Just when you think the market is overpriced
    Two 9 to 1 up/down volume days in a row. Can’t recall that ever occurring. This means both of Marty Zweig’s indicators have kicked in within a week of each other, I had a study last January on Morningstar (which I can’t locate) about how rare and bullish this is for the next six months.I believe something like 4 occasions over the past 60 years. It occurred early last January 2019, March 2009, January 1987, and August 1982.
  • AT&T and its brethren pushed through tax cuts in 2017. Will they tackle racial justice now?
    From The Dallas Morning News. Yes I'm one of those always believing there's hope out there.
    "Just say it, said Randall Stephenson: “We got a problem.”
    The CEO of AT&T, like many business leaders, went public last week with his disgust about racism and violence in America. If the words sound familiar, maybe it’s because Stephenson used almost the exact language four years ago in the wake of police killings in downtown Dallas.
    In 2016, he made national news by acknowledging the problem of racism and urging employees to not just be tolerant. “Move into uncomfortable territory,” he said, and really confront the issue of race."
    What has to happen now
  • A ‘misclassification error’ made the May unemployment rate look better than it is.
    yup. Just saw that. We all know that the metrics for measuring unemployment has been massaged for a very long time (per @rono.) Yet the miraculous upswing in the latest numbers are risible. As much as we didn't trust previous unemployment reports, this one is simply, truly, utterly bogus.
    Anything to do with Trump is "bogus"?
    The 6 months ago BLS great report was bogus. The last one was bogus.
    Trump declared that breathing air is good for you.
    4 more years are coming :-)
  • David Giroux interview on buying during the selloff
    I like to track DODBX, instead. Balanced. Stocks AND bonds. My numbers are from Morningstar. It sits today at 80th percentile among peers. But in real terms, down for 2020 now by just -3.77%. Given the recent uptrend, I'd say it will climb out and produce profit, as well as yield: currently at 2.57%. Looking at percentile rankings going back several, maybe a handful of years, there are some years where it underperformed peers, but most years are good to excellent. It is less consistently wonderful than PRWCX, but PRWCX is still CLOSED.
    Back in 2010, reorienting a friend (and wife's) money, my intent was to spread the money out, to diversify. So, they own both DODBX and PRWCX, still, 10 years on. I guess you just can't have EVERYTHING. Life is like that. And, like me, they are investors, not traders. Trading just seems too much like real WORK!
  • With Rates So Low, Income Investors Need to Rethink Bonds
    With Rates So Low, Income Investors Need to Rethink Bonds
    Incognito search for full content
    https://www.google.com/search?q=With+Rates+So+Low,+Income+Investors+Need+to+Rethink+Bonds&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8
    https://news.knowledia.com/US/en/articles/with-rates-so-low-income-investors-need-to-rethink-bonds-acade152e87656b8b197c0d8c89d99ff244c7551
    Already-beleaguered income investors are facing a tough decade. Ten years ago, investors were bemoaning a 3.8% yield on the 10-year Treasury, because a decade before that, they were yielding 6.4%. Recently, 10-year Treasuries yielded 0.88%.
    “We are at a pretty bleak starting point for income investors,” says Michael Fredericks, manager of the $16 billion BlackRock Multi-Asset Income Portfolio fund (ticker: BAICX).
  • David Giroux interview on buying during the selloff
    @FD1000: "...D&C is [one of the worst managers of all time]...". Oh my goodness. Really; what does one do with that?
    I meant to say below average. EXample: DODGX trail the "stupid" index SPY for performance + risk attributes. See the (proof)
    Please don't come back and claim it's not fair because DODGX is more value while SPY is blend. The goal is to make money and if your fund has worse performance + SD,Sharpe,Sortino it's a knockout. You can'y hide behind "VALUE" for years. Recent performance is another proof. YTD...DODGX -7.8...SPY -0.2%
  • David Giroux interview on buying during the selloff
    Through the ups and down, flexibility (more like being skillful) is one of the reason I invested with Giroux through all these years. This article also revealed his personal toll as a money manager through this pandemic.