@dsuttr
The below chart offers a small example of VFINX vs WHOSX, 1999 to present date.
***Note: both charts are total return, meaning all distributions included.
Chart
This period covers, with a little extra; the 20 year period of the article. The line chart is a bit busy at the right edge. For an easy read, at the far left edge of the "days" section at the bottom of the chart, click the green and red icon to present a bar graph with percentages. Stock charts will not allow me to travel longer into the past. Perhaps this is available with a full membership.
@bee , thank you for your presentations.
Now, the ultimate return possibility is for one to study your favorite SP500 fund, etf or index (or other growth investment); and a chosen fund as WHOSX, an index or etf that represents long term government bonds. With these two sectors in mind, discover their trend patterns; based upon what is taking placing in the investment world. Either maintain a 50/50 mix or adjust as needed to favor one over the other for "x" time. Run your mix as a personal allocation fund, balanced more to one side from time to time.
'Course, we all know that the common words for investors when asked the question: "Where are you invested in the stock market?" More often than not, I reply that currently we're invested in bonds and some equity. A blank, questioning look appears upon the face of the one asking the question, "bonds?". The local tv and radio commentators never state that the bond markets closed today at......,eh?
IMHO, debt (BONDS) is the blood that flows through the veins of equity, and obviously; governments (large and small). Regardless, I don't like the fact of how much debt exists; be it government or corporate. But, this is where the game lays at this point. It is perhaps just as easy to state that too many corporations have stock prices that are inflated, too. Same game, eh?
Note: This discussion is about government AAA rated bonds, backed by the full faith of the U.S, government. Not BBB or similar corporate bonds that may be on the edge of "good junk".
The widely invested etf's in this space; are: TLT, EDV and ZROZ. TLT generally lags a bit in performance to the other two.
Ten year chart of the three, limited by inception date.
You'll likely discover more funds and indexes in this area with a search.
Lastly, at least for the time frame of the article, is the general long term, positive performance in many bond areas that have offered a lot of support to the performance of moderate and conservative allocation funds. Give a thank you to the mangers who have helped you have a decent return over the years in this area.
Ok, I'm past my time limit, chores call. :)
Catch

re: FD 1000 comments
l agree that results with TLT are very different from those engendered with BND.
When i inputted TLT into Market Watch, Fund. Comparison it will only yield for me 1 year return so i tried the comparison with Stock Charts, Performance
Charts and I compared for ten years TLT and SPY. The results show SPY at +194.7% and TLT +153.1%
I then went to Chas. Schwab Research on ETF page and compared ten year annualized returns. I found different values but still SPY at +153.58 % outperformed TLT at +74.9%
Interesting how two reliable firms get similar but not identical results. I guess numbers are fungible and can be maneuvered to prove anything, as I am sure our NY Times corespondent is aware.

Yes, LT bond did better but also VWINX (2/3 bonds) did better but also SD=volatility was better too. (link)
But in the last 10 years TLT+EDV have similar performance to the SP500 too (link)

https://247wallst.com/investing/2020/05/02/why-sell-in-may-looks-so-alluring-in-2020/
/Why 'Sell in May' Looks So Alluring in 2020
Jon C. Ogg
May 2, 2020 6:31 am
Last Updated: May 2, 2020 8:51 am
Every year, there is a recurring mantra of “Sell in May and go away!” This is the belief that investors should exit the stock market ahead of summer and not return until the fall. After the bear market panic ended in March, April’s stock market gains were the strongest one-month performance in more than 30 years. Even if investors choose to hold on to all of their stocks, it is important to consider why “Sell in May” matters./
Market may not response similarly compared to previous May's in 2018 2019

I'll trust the author's method of calculation. I do not disagree with his conclusions.
NYT article
SNIPPET:
Here are the annualized returns:
The S&P 500: 5.4 percent.
Long Treasury bonds (with a duration of at least 10 years): 8.3 percent.
Long investment-grade corporate bonds: 7.7 percent.
Junk bonds: 6.5 percent.
Broad investment-grade bond index (the Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond index): 5.2 percent.
Take care,
Catch

As some here declare they harvested a tax loss. While others have created a tax loss for many years to come. Speaking of tax loss, why hasn't this been raised & raised at least with inflation ?
have a sunny Sunday, Derf

IMHO it's not that people took on more risk than they thought but rather that people do not appreciate what risk is. Stuff happens. Risk generally is rewarded, but the ride can be jarring.
The average 10 year returns for multisector and for intermediate core bond funds were very close as of today (May 3, 2020). Multisector: 3.65%, core 3.80%.
Take the same ten years through the end of 2019 and the averages are multisector: 4.87%, core: 3.81%. (All data from M*'s legacy graphs; see here for 10 years through 2019, see here for 10 years through today).
Over the long term, higher risk investments will probably do better, but when there are corrections or disruptions, they'll come down to earth faster and harder, bringing their long term averages closer to the lower risk investments.
My guess is that the "wealth effect" has something to do with people's reactions. High flying funds make people feel wealthier than they are; they don't factor in embedded risk. So when, as is inevitable, that risk manifests and the funds show themselves to be just somewhat better, people tend to feel disappointed. I'm suggesting that rather than feel disappointed when bad things happen, instead feel just a little less good when good things happen.
Based on the performance figures, ABNDX is an average fund. It's done very well this year on a relative basis, about 3.5% above category average. And that's brought its 10 year performance up to about 0.35%/year above category average.
On the other hand, PIMIX has held up relatively well against its category, ahead 0.5% YTD. Even from peak (Feb 23) to trough (March 23) it did better, losing "only" 13.3% vs. 14.22% for its category.
ISTM the question is whether one is willing to hold higher risk categories over a long term for a payoff, recognizing that long term is not one or three years but more likely five or even ten years. If that's too long to stay pat, then intermediate term core bond bonds would seem a better fit.
FWIW, I haven't reacted with changes to my portfolio. The only changes I'm contemplating are lateral moves (not category changes) that I've been looking into for years. I just have a little more data to work with now.

@Old_Joe,
You have asked for my thinking on fixed income. Here goes ...
My ability to review funds has been compromised by M*. Part of my quick and dirty review matrix is no more through M* Portfolio Manager. In portfolio manager I have been able, up untill recently, to view the 52 week high and low for a mutual fund along with % above and below. I can still do this with stocks, closed end funds, and etf's but not mutual funds.
I began this study because I was disapoined with the performance of my income funds as I felt they should have held up better than they did during this recent stock market swoon. I had been in this review process now for a couple of weeks ... and as of last week my review matrix is void of these 52 week details that was part of this review and study process. This is where I was getting my upside and downside capture numbers. Now, no more.
I do remember looking at ABNDX to see how it performed against some of my current bond funds as like you I had owned ABNDX before (from time-to-time). ABNDX and AGTHX along with ANCFX were part of my seasonal spiff package where I'd load equities (AGTHX & ANCFX) in the late fall and hold them until spring then rebalance and move (through the nav exchange program) into fixed income (ABNDX) (commission free). Generally, I'd also put my new money to work and buy the bond fund during the summer months as the commission to purchase it was less than to purchase equity funds. I learned to do this early on in my investing endeavors during my teenage years from my late father's stock broker. As a matter of fact he is the one that schooled me on the seasonal investment stratey (Sell In May) that I have used through the years and still do today as May/June period & September/October period are generally seasonal (calendar) rebalance times for me.
During this review of my fixed income sleeve I remember that ABNDX when compaired to my other holdings was the better performer during the downdraft period while it did give up some ground to the others in its fair weather performance. Still it's yield is a little low (2.2%) for my taste. Some Old_School Mytholodgy, taught to me by my father's broker during my early years in investing, was to make +2% above inflation on fixed income and savings and +4% to +6% on value (equity income) and +6% to +8% (perhaps more) on equity growth positions. I remember back in the late 1990's and early 2000's I was getting a yield from AHITX of about 10% (now about 6.5%) and a 5% yield on CD's and yes ABNDX was at the 5% yield mark as well (now around 2.2%). Then the Great Recession came and fixed income started paying little to nothing as it is today with the FOMC's low interest rate policy. With this ... equities have thrived and bonds have withered. Thank goodness for the hybrid funds.
I guess what I'm saying to you ... and others ... fixed income is not what it use to be. And, to gain yield I took on more risk in my fixed income sleeve than I thought I had. If I had continued with ABNDX as one of my core fixed income holdings I'd now be better off today than where I am now in protecting the downside. Still my other holdings within my income sleeve over a ten year period have out gunned ABNDX from both a yield and a total return perspective.
I'm thinking that this new bond fund by American Funds (MIAQX) is a marketing tool fund to help better sell their fixed income stuff thus retain more shareholder money that might now be moving to other bond houses. Anyway, I plan to cut some of my fixed income money back to American Funds where it be ABNDX (most likely) or MIAQX (the new fund) as I'm equity heavy and May/June are rebalance months for me. This rebalance is mostly because I am equity heavy based upon my asset allocation model more so than a seasonal timming strategy move plus I like to rebalance in both spring and fall. In addition, I've been thininking of trimming some from FKINX and moving these proceeds (through nav transfer) into FISCX and FBLAX. FKINX has disappointed me (lately) but it is the first fund I began my investing endeavors with, at age 12. It still remains as one of my top five positions outside of cash.
Thanks ... Old_Joe for asking my thoughts. In writing this out gave me some clairty to the mater as well. I had an elementary school teacher that had us writing a Friday paper as what we had learned in school for the week. I've kept with this through the years and even today write a weekly recap ... more so ... on my portfolio and the market than anything else. One week I turned in a blank paper ... I learned "the hard way" not to do that anymore. Come Monday ... I had to write 50 times on a sheet of notebook paper (front and back) ... during recess ... "I'll take good daily class notes so I can write my Friday paper." In doing this she marked my Friday paper assignment as complete. Told me next time ... I'd not be so lucky.
If I learn anything of great value with my call to my advisor about this new bond fund ... I'll let you know. I'm planning to do a nav transfer this week as I have to call to do this. This will be a good time to make the inquiry on the new bond fund. I'll post what I learn.
Old_Skeet

I've been waiting to but this fund for YEARS. I need a 50-60% correction and I'll go "all in"

@Old_Skeet- Would appreciate your judgement on ABNDX vs MIAQX when you've gathered enough info to evaluate. We've owned ABNDX on-and-off over the years for balance, and I have to say that I was never overly impressed with American's bond performance vs their equity performance, which I thought was generally quite good.
There's a bit of info over in the "Capital Group Launches Multi-Sector Income Fund" thread, in case you hadn't been following that. MSF, as usual, has been keeping up his good work.

@davidrmoran Since I have limited tax deferred space, I hold my PONAX in a taxable. Despite holding it for many years, I am showing a loss due to taxable distributions and recent price declines.
I'm also going to get out (or mostly out) if/when PONAX breaks even. I know that's not necessarily a good investment strategy, so I may act earlier and book a loss.

Hi guys, For those that hold American Funds ABNDX (Bond Fund of America) is listed at MFO as a core bond fund. It has a MFO Risk Rating of 1 (Very Conserative) and a MFO Rating of 4 (Above Average). I don't currently own this fund; but, I just might in the nearterm as I expand my fixed income sleeve from nine to twelve funds. In addition, I need to learn more about their new fund MIAQX. I'll be calling my advisor next week to see if I can not get more information on this new offering. Generally, they do a lucheon sponsored by American Funds to present their new offerings. The last new offering that I bought was New World and that was a good number of years ago. With this, they might have marked me off their ... free ... lunch list. In addition, JHNBX, NEFRX, PINCX are three other fixed income funds that I'am looking at as well. JHNBX has a MFO Risk Rating of 2 (conserative) and a MFO Rating of 3 (Average) ... NEFRX has a MFO Risk Rating of 2 (Conserative) and a MFO Rating of 5 (Best) ... and, PINCX has a MFO Risk Rating of 2 (Conserative) and a MFO Rating of 5 (Best).

We used American Funds for the greater part of our mutual fund investing for some 45 years. We did some maneuvering between a variety of their funds from time to time as seemed indicated by the market circumstances. Our IRAs are with them still, although mostly in MMKT at this point. Slow and steady- certainly not flashy, but pretty dependable over the long haul.
By and large we are quite content with their performance over the years. Old_Skeet has also had some American Funds investments for quite a while, I believe.
When you find the fund symbol, please post it here- thanks.

Yes, SGGDX was my only equity fund up today +2.28%, YTD +18.11% and 1 YR + 63.60%. Very lucky I finally decided to invest in a Gold fund again after all these years.

I owned MBEAX a few years ago. Hard to recommend when PRWCX JABAX VWELX FBALX RPBAX have all done better. At least it has outperformed OAKBX and FPACX . Would like to see it outperform as a global allocation fund to provide more choice in that category.

All my needs are met by the following
1) usually invested at 99+% mostly bond OEFs. In the last 10 years I was only 4-5 weeks at 99+% cash. Another 6-7 weeks at 30-40% cash.
2) Trading riskier assets several times annually for hours to days and back to bond funds
3) Be flexible at all times. That could be any trade, be in cash, whatever I need to meet my goals.
4) Be in only 2-4 funds because it's easy to follow and trade. All my funds must do well at all times otherwise will be replaced.
5) I compare the above to buy and hold of several portfolios and I come ahead.
6) I never believed in income as my first criteria, I always look for risk/reward which is selecting the best performing funds with the best SD, Max Draw, Sortino, Sharpe, more.
7) I never believed in wide diversification. In the last several years I mainly invest in US LC no SC/international...or..I mainly used HY Munis + MBS bonds and so on.
==================
In the last 3 days, the VIX started to go up from around 31 to 37. If it goes over 40 it's a warning sign. Q2 started with -2.6% loss, we will find out soon if the next leg down started. Some of the good news is behind us. Huge fiscal and monetary support. The coronavirus cases are going down. Earnings are not as bad because the first 2 months of Q1 were normal.
But, Q2 started with 30 million unemployed, a bad economy, and bad earnings. How long can the stock market disregard it?

Take a look at LBNDX. It has worked well for me through the years ... but, it gave up more ground than I thought it should during the recent market swoon.

Another read from Eric Basmajian on Inflation / Deflation Debate:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4340323-inflation-vs-deflation-tug-of-war

The deflationary thesis holds more weight for three primary reasons.
Weakening rates of population growth and excessive levels of unproductive debt are two long-term structural forces that have been working to undermine the rate of economic growth, widen the output gap, create excess capacity, and exert a general disinflationary force on the economy. Both of these forces will persist.
Recessions exacerbate excess capacity. The current recession is one of the worst economic crises the country has ever faced. The rate of inflation nearly always declines during recessions and typically does not trough for years after the conclusion of the recession and the eventual reduction in excess capacity. A severe recession usually knocks several hundred basis points off the rate of core inflation, placing current measures firmly below the zero bound. The strength of the recovery will determine how persistent the deflation will be.
While the Federal Reserve has engaged in a rapid expansion of its balance sheet and the monetary base, both the money multiplier and the velocity of money will work against the increase in money growth. Velocity tends to decline as debt levels rise. There's no reason to believe the velocity of money will rise significantly. In fact, most evidence points toward a very aggressive collapse in the velocity of money, a force that will continue to negate monetary policy actions as it has for the last several decades.

and,

...various measures of inflation expectations reveal that the bond market is currently expecting deflation for at least the next three years and rates of inflation below 1.5% for more than 10 years.

Difference Between Monetary Base and Money Supply:

Often we conflate Federal Reserve "money printing" with an equal and consistent increase in the money supply. This is not the case.
When the Federal Reserve buys an asset from the private sector, the Federal Reserve increases excess reserves, which represents an increase in the monetary base, not the money supply.
https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2020/4/23/48075864-15876672613202152_origin.png

High Level of Unproductive Debt:

High levels of debt are often misunderstood. Commonly, we hear that debt levels are getting too high and that inflation will ensue. The data actually proves that higher levels of debt, particularly unproductive debt that does not generate an income stream, leads to deflation, not inflation.

Unemployment Factors:

In the prior two recessions, it took 47 months and 75 months, respectively, to regain the number of jobs that were lost. In this recession, the number of job losses will erase upwards of 20 million paychecks based on preliminary data from the report of the initial claims.

On Assets to Hold:

Gold can perform well during periods of inflation or periods of deflation. The direction of real rates tends to be a more critical factor. As such, my analysis suggests a combination of Treasury bonds, gold, and higher than normal levels of cash is the best way to move forward in the current environment.

Hi @bee. Thank you for your question. Have I ever considered using other funds and/or etf's as a benchmark? Yes, but I have not found a conserative asset allocation fund that generates the income stream that my master portfolio kicks off. And, besides being a former corporate credit manager I limit how much I will hold in any one fund. With this I spread it out over a number of positions.
In addition, I use to be more active and engage spiff positions more often as a source of income generation via realized capital gains. Now, I hold a good slug of CTFAX (about a 5% weighting) and I let this fund do this automatically for me. Thus, this has reduced the number of times I have been an active investor with my use of spiffs. I've got a lot of moving parts within my portfolio ... perhaps, to many for some ... but, not to many for me.
Again in review below is how I govern my portfolio as it does everything needed to meet my needs now in retirement. Why change now?
Old_Skeet's All Weather Asset Allocation.
My all weather asset allocation of 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity affords me everything necessary to meet my needs now being in the distribution phase of investing. The benefit of this asset allocation is that it provides sufficient income, maximizes diversification, minimizes volatility, and provides long-term returns.
The 20% held in cash area provides me ample cash should I need a cash draw over and above what my portfolio generates plus it can provide the capital necessary to fund a special investment position (spiff) should I choose to open one during a stock market pullback. In addition, cash helps stabilize a portfolio during stock market volatility. Example of investments held in this area are cash, money market mutual funds and CD's.
The 40% held in the income area provides me ample income generation to meet my income needs in retirement. It is a well diversified area that incorporates a good number of income generating type funds. Some examples of investments held in this area are AZNAX, JGIAX & PONAX.
The 40% held in the equity area provides me some dividend income along with some growth, that equities generally provide, that offsets the effects of inflation plus, over time. Some examples of investments held in this area are IDIVX, NEWFX & SPECX.
My five largest positions are AMECX, CAIBX, CTFAX, ISFAX & FKINX. Two of these funds I have had positions in since my early teens AMECX & FKINX). I'm now 72+ years in age.
Generally, for my income distributions, I take no more than a sum equal to what one half of my five year average total return has been. In this way principal grows over time.
This works well for me and I have no plans to change the concept. I encourage others to develop something that works well for them and to stick with it even if is a two fund portfolio consisting of a stock index and a bond index fund. If this is what you want then why not use SFAAX? It's yield is too low for me at 1%.

I believe that active managers can bring value to the bond fund arena and I've done well with Pimco Income (PIMIX) as a core bond holding over the years. PIMIX has done poorly recently and index funds, such as Vanguard Total Bond (BND) have done well.
I almost purchased AlphaCentric Bond (IOFIX), but it seemed too good to be true and we all know what happened there. Guggenheim Total Return (GIBIX) has done consistently well, but its manager seems to be a little unconventional with investing ideas. I don't think GIBIX will become the next IOFIX, but I'm wondering how much longer GIBIX can continue to outperform. Performance Trust (PTIAX) also seems like it might be a good choice.
Although I don't like to make sector bets (even in the bond market), I'd like to consider active managers and not just a plain vanilla bond index fund.
Any ideas? Thanks!