Youtube interview: How to beat the market over 50 years w/ Jay Bowen

2008-09 was a tough year overall. UTF is a solid fund, if purchased at the proper point...which goes for many funds. I've owned it for the last 5 years and it's done well, though it's richly valued currently.

Thanks @yogibearbull. Yes, one common criticism of this one is the ROC portion of dividends. But that can be said of a lot of CEFs. If I ever hear that Gabelli has sold his big chunk I’ll head for the exit. Forsyth did a (mostly complementary) piece on the fund in Barron’s a few years ago. Mentioned Gabelli’s personal investment.
PS - I spoke too early. The CEF pulled back to $8.29 late morning, which makes perfect sense. I can’t account for the brief spike in price that was reflected on several different pricing platforms. But CEFs do behave in erratic ways!

Several weeks ago I opened up a good sized position in Gabelli’s GDL fund. Had owned a much smaller amount for a couple months. Thinly traded with only a $95.7 Mil asset base. Took hours to acquire the desired number of shares. The CEF is an arbitrage fund that skims small profits from pending or nearly completed mergers & acquisitions. It’s the tamest CEF Gabelli offers with a record dating back 15+ years and which I’d expect to outpace cash by a percent or two over longer periods. (Gabelli himself is reported to own a big chunk.)
Averaging in at $8.32, the fund has gone nowhere in the short time I owned it. Held steady around $8.32. Today’s the ex-dividend date (12-cents per share). While the fund opened lower as expected ($8.26) it quickly bounced to $8.35, well above its average price in recent days. I would not have expected it to go x-dividend and then jump in price over what it closed the day before - especially with the present Mid-East turmoil.
I really don’t understand the logic here in a fund jumping higher on ex-dividend date after the dividend has been declared / pulled out. It would make more sense for investors to be pushing the price up in the days before the dividend is declared. Would be instructive to better understand investor behavior & psychology is these matters.
I

(my kind of investing ... and why I went into my state's 403(b) versus the state pension system.)
The Florida Pension Fund Managers Who've Beaten the S&P 500 Over 50 Years
Unlike most other US public retirement plans of its size, the Tampa Fire & Police Pension Fund doesn’t invest in hedge funds, private equity or private credit. It doesn’t hire consultants to help it pick outside managers. Instead, for the past 50 years, its investments in stocks and bonds have been overseen by a single manager, Bowen, Hanes & Co., a nine-person firm led by Harold “Jay” Bowen III. In short, Tampa and Bowen Hanes do one thing, and the rest of the institutional world does something else.
Consider the Tampa fund’s performance, though. It racked up a 32.2% return in the fiscal year ended in September. “Fiscal 2024 was—not only was it our 50th year, it was the best year the plan’s ever had,” says Bowen, 63. The return was good enough to rank the Tampa plan as the best performer for the period in the Wilshire Trust Universe Comparison Service’s database of plans with more than $1 billion in assets under management. Tampa was also No. 1 for 3, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35 and 40 years.
When the firm started by Bowen’s father began managing the Tampa Fire & Police pension in 1974, the plan had $12.1 million in assets. Fifty years later, in September 2024, the plan’s assets totaled $3.2 billion. What’s more, net of contributions, the system had paid out $1.8 billion to retirees. That means by investing in stocks and bonds, Bowen Hanes had in effect turned $12 million into almost $5 billion over 50 years.
< - >
Full archive link: https://archive.ph/3nTUd
Fund holdings as of September 2024: https://www.tampa.gov/document/september-30-2024-fiscal-year-financial-statements-115286

I just want to thank the OP for helping to bring about a very lively and informative discussion, even if the outcome was not what he intended. It may just be a matter of time before the rose-colored glasses are out of season, or go way up in price.

So far, the numbers speak for themselves—the outcome has been good, and yet you still can’t admit it.
How can you keep insisting everything is terrible when key indicators—like inflation and markets—are saying otherwise?
Sure, the future could be worse. If and when that happens, we’ll deal with it. But let’s not rewrite the present based on hypotheticals.
We should be looking at the overall state of the economy and markets, not filtering everything through politics. Ironically, I don’t remember hearing much noise here when:
2022, under Biden, brought the highest inflation in four decades
Bonds had their worst performance in 30–40 years
Stocks were also down, hitting millions of Americans, especially those relying on bonds to protect their portfolios
That was a truly bad outcome—and it'll be hard to top that kind of damage.
As for Powell: he should be cutting rates, but he’s clearly hesitant—possibly because he doesn’t want to repeat past mistakes. Meanwhile, other central banks are already easing.
So far YTD: SPY + QQQ made money, Europe made a lot more, bonds made money. After 50% in 2023+24 for SPY, any positive performance in 2025 will be great.

I was surprised last evening when at the beginning of Chapter 12 Dillian says he had never even heard of ”mutual funds” until 1997 when a shipmate aboard the CG cutter he served on bought a newspaper at a port and began scanning the financial section to see how his funds had done the day before.
Geez - Some of us here had been investing in mutual funds for 25 years before this financial “expert” first heard of them. Maybe we should be teaching him!

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/norway-oil-fund-puts-td-bank-under-observation-4cd41a12
Key Points
Norway’s sovereign wealth fund is observing Toronto-Dominion Bank for 4 years.
TD may be linked to multiple cases of financial crime in the past 10-15 years.
TD settled with U.S. authorities last year, pleading guilty to anti-money-laundering failings.

The recent chart on KGGAX looks impressive, probably due to the fund’s 29% allocation to metals. However, BISAX has clocked it in the international SMID value category over just about any period. The manager, David Iben, has been in the business for 44 years!

@Hank - Thanks for your Audible list. I have a subscription to as well, with a number of *banked* audible books. Were there any where the narrator added or subtracted from the content in a significant way?

I’m happy if the list leads even one individual to an interesting read. I’ve been with Audible 5 years or longer. So it’s hard to recall what even half on the list were about or how good. Strictly very late night listening (11:00 PM - 2:00 AM). Last year i got hung up on Meb Faber’s podcasts (like 50 episodes going back 5 years) which are available (free) with the Audible subscription - so didn’t listen to many books.
Very well narrated (adds to enjoyment)
*** John Mack - “Up Close …”
*** Warren Buffett (“The Snowball”)
*** Longo (“The Art of Investing”)
*** “The Fund” (about Dalio)
*** Housel “The psychology …”
*** Bob Pisani (does his own narration)
Middling narration
** Templeton “Keys to to Investing Success” (with Sir John speaking in interviews)
** Dillian “How to live stress free …”
** Ben Graham
** Templeton’s Way …” - Nairn
Poorly narrated / Hard to stay awake
* Howard Marks (very redundant content & dry reading)
* “Principles” (By Dalio)
* “The Humble Investor” (complex material & dry reading)
Of course, Audible allows a free preview of about 3 minutes before buying. So you can get an idea of the narration. I’ve had reasonable success returning ones I didn’t like for a credit. But there’s a cut off point.

You want inflation info from the Wall Street Journal?? OK- here's this:
The Canned-Food Aisle Is Getting Squeezed by Rising Steel Tariffs

Key Points-
• New Trump administration tariffs on imported steel may cause canned goods to become more expensive for consumers.
• The Consumer Brands Association warns that 20,000 U.S. jobs in food could be at risk if the tariff on tin-plate drives consumers away from canned goods.

Steel used in cans is mostly imported—and subject to the Trump administration’s new 50% levy. Edited excerpts from the Wall Street Journal report:

Cans used for food require tin-coated, ultrathin sheet steel made from molten iron. Not much is produced in the U.S., where domestic producers have been scaling back production for years.
The Trump administration’s new 50% duty on imported steel could increase store prices for items in steel cans by 9% to 15%, according to the Consumer Brands Association, a trade group. Tariffs are likely to drive up prices for domestic-made steel, too, as U.S. producers raise their own prices.
Can manufacturers say they will continue to buy lots of imported tin-coated steel, known as tin-plate—because there isn’t enough of it made in the U.S. to supply them. “I would love nothing more than to allocate more purchases to the United States, but the overall production capacity is not there,” said Robert Gatz, general manager of Can Corp. of America, a Pennsylvania-based maker of food cans.
Tin-plate is made with steel derived from molten iron, but most steel in the U.S. is now made from melted scrap, and that doesn’t measure up to the can industry’s exacting quality standards. Cans are prized for enabling long shelf lives for vegetables, fruit and other ready-to-eat foods, able to keep for years without spoiling. But can manufacturers worry that higher can costs will discourage their use.
The Consumer Brands Association said as many as 20,000 U.S. jobs in food-can manufacturing could be at risk if the tariff on tin-plate causes consumers to shy away from higher-priced canned goods and food companies migrate to alternative packaging.

Free link to the Wall Street Journal report-
Comment: Yet another well-thought-through brute-force Trump dictum. But then, he doesn't do much grocery shopping himself, does he?

@Observant1, We were Flagship clients for over 30 years and used those privileges. We are not frequent traders and did not found them to be as useful as it sounded. There were a host of challenges we had, but I digress from this thread. Fidelity’s overall fee schedule, customer support, and planning tool fit our needs better. There are few transaction-fee funds we use, and the rest are either ETFs or OEFs. By the way, we received 1% bonus from transferring asset to Fidelity, but you need to ask first. With that I am okay to pay the $100 for D&C and Vanguard funds.

At Fidelity, selling transaction-funds is free. It is the buying OEF on Transaction-fee platform will cost $49.95. I believe it was @msf who I learned awhile back in Fund Alarm days where it cost $5 to add. Here is the steps:
1. Select Transfer (upper left hand corner) ,
2. Select Manage recurring transfer,
3. Select create new activity (upper right hand corner),
4. Select investment, and this open a dialogue box,
5. Select fund symbol, account, $ amount you wish to buy, and the day of transaction. I usually pick a few days later once I set up the purchase. In the past, Fidelity likes the customers to make two purchases, but it is not necessary. You may cancel subsequent purchases without penalty.
Not sure what Schwab does with their fee schedule. At Vanguard, they provide free trading on Transaction-fee funds depending on the total asset you hold with them. The free part goes for buying and selling of that fund. This is really good for long term investors. The downside that Vanguard has a smaller set of OEFs to choose from. We consolidated to simply our life and Vanguard’s human service has declined in recent years.

I was able to transfer “in kind” all my D&C money to Fido without paying a commission. But the ability to add / sell / rebalance would have been compromised. A frequent poster (who always replies) has explained before how Fidelity does allow some type of systematic / ongoing purchase of D&C funds for a small ($5-$10) ongoing fee. Not sure how often or how that is assessed. But it is supposedly one way around their normal commission. It also, I think, supposes you’ve done an in-find transfer or paid the initial charge.
I spent a lot of time on the decision to buy OAKBX, looking at their holdings, considering the return on bonds today, and examining the fund’s 2022 & 2008 behavior. I might be wrong, but consider it currently somewhat less risky than PRWCX. Hard to compare it to DODBX because that fund has been significantly revamped over past 2-3 years.

@hank, I thought you are holding D&C Balance fund

@Sven - For about 20 years beginning around 2000 I did have money directly at D&C and owned various funds there including DODBX. I got completely out a year or so after moving everything to Fidelity (around 2020-21). Fidelity makes it difficult to buy & sell D&C funds w/o commission.
What you are probably remembering is I recently posted that one reason I never got seriously into PRWCX (owned a bit in a traditional IRA) was my investment in DODBX (inside a Roth) at the same time.
Thanks for comment.

History suggests that recycling efficiency is often over-stated. I support recycling, up to the point that it becomes inefficient. t this point, I assume most of my personal recycling is ending up in landfills. The energy & labor component to certain recycling efforts can be a limiting factor.
In the end, having a huge nation with nearly unlimited labor and disregard for their environment may be very beneficial to us. In 50 years, China will be spending vast amounts on their own "Superfund" or living with the toxic results.
I have not seen any data on rare Earth recycling limitations or costs.

I held OTCFX at TRP for decades. Until I realized that the long term gains that I had accrued were in danger of washing out. I began selling several years ago and am now down to zero. I exited while my annualized gains were still ~17%. It was a good run.
Not sure I will ever wade back in. Can we even predict how tariffs will impact small caps?

Trade talks between the U.S. and China are scheduled on Mon, 6/9 at an undisclosed London location.
Rare-earth mineral exports will surely be one of the main discussion topics.
China can leverage it's near-monopoly in rare-earth processing against our country.
It's imperative that we eliminate our reliance on China for these elements which are vital for national security.
It appears we are making progress in that regard.
The following info is from a recent WSJ email I received.
Q: America invented rare-earth magnets. Can it make them again?
The first rare-earth magnets were discovered in the 1960s in a U.S. Air Force laboratory.
The U.S. was one of the top producers into the 1990s.
But over several decades, China took over.
Now it has a stranglehold on a crucial component of much of the world’s modern technology.
Reporter Jon Emont spoke to us about how the industry shifted and where it’s headed.
A: It was only four decades ago that the U.S. was a global leader in churning out rare-earth magnets—
needed in everything from car motors to F-35 fighter jets.
But since then China has come to dominate the industry,
thanks to its world-leading rare-earth mines and low-cost but sophisticated industrial base.
Allowing this highly strategic industry to leave the U.S. and move to China now looks like
one of the most confounding strategic errors of the 1990s and 2000s.
But what can be built once can be built again.
Since 2020 the U.S. government has poured hundreds of millions of dollars into grants to U.S. companies
seeking to refine rare earths and turn them into magnets.
Progress is being made. In the coming year or two, new U.S. magnet plants are expected to crank up,
which should provide more independence from Chinese suppliers.
But there are still gaps that need to be filled, including expanding non-Chinese production of a certain class
of rare earths—known as “heavies”—which China is currently restricting and which are difficult to produce elsewhere. As the current industry panic over China’s export restrictions has shown,
Beijing’s dominance of rare earths will likely give it real leverage over the U.S for years to come.

Our exposure is limited to mid-cap funds due to the large cap dominance in the last 10 years. This is unusual period where Mag 7 stocks provide a sizable earnings for S&P 500 index. Can this continues in the near future?

HI WABC
I’m sorry you found this thread a waste of your time. I hope the moderators do not consider book reviews or discussions tantamount to advertisements, which are against board rules. Should this thread be determined to constitute an Ad, I’ll take it down.
My Audible library contains a dozen or more other investing books I’ve purchased and listened to over several years - or am in the process of listening to. Some get repeated. I’ll listen to a book by Howard Marks, John Templeton or Ray Dalio at least once yearly. It’s a fascination with hearing and learning about as many different viewpoints as possible that keeps me motivated. Below is the complete list from my Audible library. I’m hopeful you’ll find one or a few worthy of your time & consideration. Perhaps you’ve read some yourself and would care to comment?
Rating these authors for investment merrit:
1. Ben Graham
2. Howard Marks
3. John Templeton
A FEW NOTES:
- ”The Snowball” by Alice Schroeder is a lengthy and engaging biography of Warren Buffett - timely one might say.
- The one by Bob Pisanni is “light” on investment wisdom but does an excellent / colorful job depicting legendary investor Art Cashin, who recently passed away.
- The book by Andrew Tobias (The Only Investment Guide …) is the first investment book I ever read. A simple yet comprehensive introduction to the investment process with plenty of cautionary notes for novices.
- Copeland’s The Fund is a somewhat sensationalized look at Ray Dalio’s unorthodox management style and questionable relationships / morality very early in his career.
THE LIST:
Templeton's Way with Money
By Alasdair Nairn and Jonathan
Keys to Investment Success
By John Templeton
Fundamental Analysis, Value Investing, and Growth Investing
By Roger Lowenstein and Janet Lowe
The Millionaire Next Door
By Thomas J. Stanley Ph.D. and William D. Danko Ph.D.
The Intelligent Investor Rev Ed.
By Benjamin Graham
The Fund
By Rob Copeland
The Only Investment Guide You'll Ever Need
By Andrew Tobias
Gold, Hard Money, and Financial Gurus
By Michael Ketcher and Gary L. Alexander
What Works on Wall Street
By James P. O'Shaughnessy
No Worries
By Jared Dillian
The Humble Investor
By Daniel Rasmussen
The Most Important Thing
Howard Marks
Principles
By Ray Dalio
Crashes, Booms, Panics, and Government Regulations
By Robert Sobel and Roger Lowenstein
The Snowball
Alice Schroeder
The Psychology of Money
By Morgan Housel
Guide to Financial Markets (6th edition)
By Marc Levinson
Bargain Hunters, Contrarians, Cycles, and Waves
By Janet Lowe and Ken Fisher
The Art of Investing: Lessons from History's Greatest Traders
By John M. Longo and The Great Courses
Shut Up and Keep Talking
By Bob Pisani
Up Close and All In
By John Mack