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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Why This Is Unlike The Great Depression
    You'd think, or would like to think so, but recent experience demonstrates how wrong that assumption could be. I'll try to explain.
    Much like I have recently done a friend was in the process of buying a home in a state to which he wanted to move. He is retired and has none of the usual forms of income lenders look to first such as current W-2's or rents, royalties, etc.. He collects social security and can document a certain monthly income flow from his savings which would satisfy the traditional PITI (Principal + Interest + Taxes + Insurance) payment on the loan but would leave him with very little left after everyday life expenses (healthcare, food, utilities, entertainment, etc.). Doable but just barely. He owns a home free and clear in his current state of residence but lenders view that as more of a liability than an asset. Why? It's true value is unknown or at best an estimate until it is sold, assuming it is sold. Until such time that home assets must be insured, property taxes must be paid and upkeep must be maintained all of which constitute subtractions or liabilities against his income. I hope you see where I am going with this.
    Lenders are only concerned with your ability to service your loan in the form of current income. It's all that seems to matter. Having an assist pile is nice in terms of credit worthiness but where's the 'income' ? They use what is called "Capacity" which measures the borrower's ability to repay a loan by comparing income against recurring debts and assessing the borrower's debt-to-income (DTI) ratio. Lenders calculate DTI by adding together a borrower's total monthly debt payments and dividing that by the borrower's gross monthly income. More information can be found in the NOLO link below.
    From NOLO - Mortgage Rules on "Ability to Repay"
    At the end of February my friend thought he was sitting pretty because he could document the income flow necessary. There wasn't much wiggle room there but he felt he had an 'ace' in the hole in the form of the unsold house. One month in time has now seriously put a hurt on his assumptions. Will his house sell for what he hoped or thought? Will it even sell? Will an investment he holds cut or eliminate the income or distribution he counted on to be there? I've heard it said that if you can document an automatic monthly flow of income from your savings (e.g. retirement account) to your spending account (in whatever form that takes) and that flow is sustainable for 3-years than lenders can choose to proceed with the loan. I can't verify that at all. I also don't know what I would do if I were in his shoes.
  • Retirement Strategy: New Investing Paradigm May Change Dividend Growth Investing Forever
    @rono Of your listed bond funds above, I own only PRSNX and am reasonably happy with it. The other two? I owned PREMX during the foreign bond boom, after 2009, and exited several years later. PREMX and RPIBX look like dogs to me. Can you say more about why you are using them? Thank you.
  • Best websites for tracking portfolios?
    Fido FullView remains quite sketchy and laggy. Perhaps this has been noted already; I certainly have posted such for many years now. It seemed the last few months to have finally settled down and gotten quicker and actually accurate, but tonight is back to its old laggy and outdated ways.
    The best I know, and even it is not perfect, is ML My Financial Picture. It too used to lag even within the ML / BoA system, but not so much anymore, and is the one I rely on. If you are a BoA customer it is almost worth it to get a ML brokerage accounts and stick some moneys into and then see whether it properly does the draw and aggregation of everything else you have in other firms.
  • When to start buying
    @Old_Joe, @MikeW
    Guys I used to own this fund for 3 years, then sold it because I was worried about manager succession. Needless to say was a mistake, but can't complain too much.
    So now aren't you at least little bit worried for the same reason?
  • Escape Plan
    I have been looking for a reliable trading system for many years. I ran hundreds of scenarios, mostly technical analysis. I wanted to find something easy, if you use too many indicators it's too complicated. You also don't want too many trades. I could find anything I like so I made my own system.
    I looked at
    50/200 moving averages--too late/early many time
    10 months MA by Faber-It works only in crashes but not good at mild one. You can see it in this (link)
    I tracked the performance of GMO, Arnott and AQR Capital Management and they were not good.
    Inverted yield, PE, PE10 can be off by months and years
    When I was younger I was very heavy in stocks but in the last 7-8 years I learned a lot about bonds, starting with PIMIX.
    In the last 5 years and close to retirement I based my timing on the following
    1) Bonds rule. Bonds must work rationally for me to be confident. Stocks don't have to be rational, they can go up regardless, at some point they will go down but they can be off by years/months
    2) I simply set a rule of max loss from the last top for each fund I own. Years ago it was 3% for bonds and 6% for stocks. Now it's 1% for any bond fund I own, at 0.5% I start checking why.
    If I sell a fund then I look at other funds in the same category, it the category bad or just this fund. Then I look at other categories, maybe they are doing OK.
    example: rates go up most bond categories go down but wait, bank loans may go up.
    make the switch.
    When you have enough, it's just a number game. If I sell too soon and it rebounded and I miss the performance...I don't care.
    3) Look at VIX. If it's over 30, it's a warning sign. Over 40 a stop sign. continue up, it's a danger zone. The key here is to look at extreme because it's hardly there.
    4) Pay attention to the traders. I record fast money and watch it every day, at least the first 15 minutes. Pay attention to Carter Worth. Pay attention especially to an unusual guess Tony Dwyer with pretty good calls. These people give me the market internals, spirit and what the big Wall Street firms are doing. Investing for me is a passion for years.
    5) I use simple tech indicators because many algos use it too. 50+200 MA, MACD, trends,
    3-line-break (link) This fast indicator tells you to get ready to buy/sell. I used these for riskier stuff for short term trading.
    When stocks lose and rebound, they will capture most times 40-50%. I look at the SP500 + 3 line break + daily MACD(weekly MACD is better) when to enter and stay for 1-2 days of trade. The more it's down the more you can make and stay with the trade. It's feeling but if I made money I sell anyway if I think it's enough.
    For my longer term bond holdings, I use a simple trend. I have several bond funds I like and just switch.
    6) Common sense based on the news.
    Examples:
    The Fed says they will raise rates, watch your bond fund, stay away from simple IG bonds
    The Fed said last week they will support IG bonds, start buying.
    Fast trading:
    A very known stock had bad news after hours and falls 20%. The next day, you can see the trading prior to the opening. It opens even lower at -22%, you buy, it will go up several %, you sell.
    PCI is one of the best known CEFs. It was going down sharply and more than the SPY, then one day it was down another 20%, this means, investors are desperate, then I buy, I made 5% in 30 minutes. The next 2 days it was up another 15% but I don't care. I made money.
    So, why I sold almost everything weeks ago because 1) bonds, including treasuries were acting irrationally 2) VIX over 45-50. These 2 are enough to sell but then stocks were crashing and all the news media were talking 24/7 about the Coronavirus.
    Bottom line: I have strict written rules that I follow but I'm also flexible. Never say never, I learn stuff all the time and then I test it to see if it works. It took me years to be comfortable to trade and use big %.
  • Escape Plan
    I'm 78. We can live comfortably on SS, a public pension, RMDs from 403b, and another stream of income. I have control over my 403b, and I have dialed down some of the equity funds in favor of a few Vanguard TDFs of varying years (my attempt at laddering). TIAA has a great portfolio tool that shows my equity/bond exposure in my portfolio right down to the allocations to different sizes of companies as well as the bond exposure. The money outside the 403b is a combination of growth stocks and funds, PTIAX, IOFAX, and lots of cash. We don't need the income from these accounts. When 12/31/20 rolls around, next year's RMDs and our other income source will be determined based on the portfolios' NAVs. I'm prepared for our income from those sources to decline.
    I believe we'll see much lower equity prices in the coming months. I'm raising cash because two or three of my adult children, who are just getting going in the world of work, may see their jobs evaporate and need support. Two of them are in outpatient healthcare where staff are already being cut. We also have a disabled daughter whom we support. I'm definitely not exiting the markets, but I feel the need for a big cash cushion these days. We usually take a couple of expensive trips per year; the second one is already cancelled. (BTW, Delta is really generous with the refunds.) This is flying in the clouds with no instruments and a radio that sends out contradictory directional advice.
  • Escape Plan
    Charles noted:
    Our friend Junkster always touted the importance of having predefined "exit" criteria. He was/is a day trader so he watches for instabilities typically in price movements of what he calls "tight channel" funds. If he sees them, he exits the trade.
    For me, the most important word above is, "see"; in regard to its meaning below.
    @Junkster offered pieces now and then, of what he could "see". He didn't make such a notation to impel or compel any one investor to take a particular action within their own portfolio. But for me, his observation(s); based upon his credibility with me, would be enough to cause me to be more curious as to a given circumstance.
    To see: discern or deduce mentally after reflection or from information; understand.
    We all "see" differently. I noted on March 11 what I could see relative to our portfolio:

    >>>>> From a long ago song lyric: "Nowhere to run to, nowhere to hide."
    All of the below government bill through bond types are down in pricing.
    Our 72% bond/28% equity portfolio has no support from any area as of 12:30 EST.
    Has this happened before in modern times??? Where the correlation between UST issues and equity markets have little meaning to one another.
    ADD: Is the U.S. Treasury playing in the background to support yields???
    --- SHY = (1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = (3-7 yr notes)
    --- IEF = (7-10 yr notes)
    --- TLT = (20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = (Vanguard extended duration gov't)
    --- ZROZ = (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds) >>>>
    This was my observation then, from my years of watching and learning, I could "see" that something was broken to hell in the AAA Treasury issues. Was this actionable information for others? I don't know, as this was only my observation.
    One's escape plan is personal to the point of what was "seen", to find a portfolio that has arrived to where it is now, and what one "see's" now, relative to the composition of the portfolio going forward.
    As to an escape plan for this house. Barring a fully worthless portfolio, which would suggest a full collapse of the global financial structure, for any number of reasons; we will remain with a 75% bond/25% equity portfolio at this time. We're fully invested, and can not invest in other areas without a sale of some other area.
    Hoping this is understandable for most.
    NOTE: more could be added, but other priorities exist for the moment.
    Take care of you and yours,
    Catch
  • Escape Plan
    I am a 70 year old retiree. 80% of my portfolio is invested long term in OEFs. The other 20% is currently more actively invested.
    What has changed for me since January 1? These are some off the top of my head thoughts....
    There has been the onset of a pandemic. It will take maybe one to two years for a new normal to emerge (maybe significantly less). The worlds' economies will most likely recover successfully. (That's been typical after black swan events.)
    There has been a major shock in bond land. The Feds actions last Monday have calmed the bond markets so far. This will need to be watched. (Central banks throughout the world seem to be acting in unison regarding this issue.)
    It appears there will be a flood of deficit spending in most major countries throughout the world. This will tend to promote some inflation as time passes.
    Cash has emerged in the short run as an alternative to owning stocks or bonds in our low interest rate world. Will that last? Too soon to tell but I doubt it.
    I don't understand why a 1930's style depression will be a likely outcome from this event. Why might it be a likely outcome?
    So far, the balance point for my investments remains at 55% stocks. It dipped to about 50% at the low so far this year. I fed the stock side a little during the initial downturn. Fido tells me I am at 53% stocks as I type this.
  • The traditional retirement portfolio (60/40) is down 20% for only the fourth time since WWII
    ° The traditional balanced portfolio of 60% stocks and 40% bonds lost 20% from its peak value.
    ° This is only the fourth time in 75 years it has suffered such a decline with the other moments coming in August 1974, September 2002 and January 2009, according to Michael Batnick of Ritholtz Wealth Management.
    ° An investor who rebalanced holdings back to the 60/40 asset split at the end of the month when a 20% decline was first registered would have been positioned for attractive returns in subsequent years.
    ° But some believe there are reasons to be skeptical that holding fast to the 60/40 stance this time will fare as well as in past decades.
    Read Article from CNBC
  • Escape Plan
    I share your fear @Charles. I want to treat this as a typical bear market that will come back in some historically defined amount of time, but in the back of my mind I know this is unprecedented. It feels like possibly the only thing that comes close to it historically in a financial way is the great depression. And that took decades and a world war to get over.
    At 66, my plan to semi-retire in May has been put on hold (self imposed) until I see what this will ultimately end up as. So far I've been buy-and-hold except for selling my remaining shares of IOFAX. But even with that I took 1/2 the proceeds to buy into BRK/B and put 1/2 into MM. So I guess I remain B and H in a sense.
    One comfort I do have and what keeps the exit door closed is that I set aside 3 years of withdrawal money (safe bucket) in anticipation of semi-retirement. I'm not trying to make suggestions to others, but I think that bucket would be prudent for retirees, even setting one up now, (damn, that is a suggestion :) ). If only for it's mental affect, knowing it gives you some time for the rest of your portfolio to recover.
    Good luck to all, especially retirees. I'm trying to stay optimistic for now.
  • Muni bond fund question
    @Art
    I'm investing in HY munis in my IRAs too. Schwab lets you do it after you acknowledge their warning. Fidelity would not let you do with most/all mutual funds (I checked dozens).
    As a trader, I invest where I can make the most and I have used HY Munis in the last 2 years more in my IRAs than taxable because I have a lot more money in my IRAs.
  • Muni bond fund question
    Hi @Mona, Currently, the only muni fund I own is FLAAX which I hold in a taxable account. Years back, I held six of them all in my taxable account. The reason that I own a muni fund is that it gives me diversification within my income sleeve and not so much for the tax benefit. Old_Skeet
  • Retirement Strategy: New Investing Paradigm May Change Dividend Growth Investing Forever
    Howdy folks,
    I'm of the school of 'owning a piece of the broom'. For years, I've tried to own companies that I did business with and that paid a dividend. Examples are my utilities such as CMS (2.8), DTE(4.2), T(7.0), VZ(4.7). And as a secret that I'm sharing again, I've been all over NCV (normally around 10 but up to 17.9) for years.
    As for allocation, cripes, the kid pretty much went to the mattresses after 'the Ides of November'. Note that this is also when I had the Serenity Prayer tattooed on the inside of my eyelids so whenever things get too crazy I can just close my eyes.
    Since then, I've continued to tamp down our portfolios. Wifey in particular, is very conservatively invested. At the bottom recently, she had only lost 8% [note for the record that she's still very, very pissed]. So this was a victory. [don't tell her about her Roth IRA]. Otherwise, things are good.
    That said, a lot of my 'going to the mattresses' has been moving money overseas via int'l and emerging mkt bond funds (PREMX, PRSNX, RPIBX) at Price while adding TRAOX, PRJPX, and Matthews funds MAPCX, MCHFX, and MATFX).
    And of course, as usual, the kid is playing the precious metals in various and sundry ways. feh. SLV, SILJ, GDXJ, CEF, and several penny silver miners.
    and so it goes,
    peace and flatten the curve,
    rono
  • Escape Plan
    I am not a trader. And generally I don't buy funds that do a lot of trading. I don't think there are all that many extra-smart traders out there after expenses.
    I tend to stay invested in my taxable investments. I plan on leaving that behind, although I do take some income from it now.
    I have quite a bit of cash in it due to an unforeseen event. I have been slow to invest it. I thought the market was over-valued at the time the money came to me.
    I am more active in my IRA account. I typically take a hard look at things twice a year. I sell if I have lost faith in the thesis, or the people executing it.
    I did take some profit at the end of last year. It seemed as good a time as any to put more money into bonds, and some into cash. And I did re-deploy from some strategies in mid and small caps into some ESG funds with reasonable expense ratios, and low turnover.
    The retirement account is meant to be spent down. If interest rates were at some reasonable level I might put the whole thing into an income annuity. I am eight, seven years out from RMD's. So we'll see how things look then.
  • Escape Plan
    @charles, Still have few more years to go before retirement. I have learned and survived through several market crisis. The key is to stay invest so you can regain the loss in the future days. In the last two weeks, the market declined at a rate even greater than 2008-2009. However, the government across the globe came quickly to the rescue with massive QE in form of lowering interest rates, loans, and purchasing of bonds. In the near term this should stabilize the market as the COVID-19 continue to impact the economy.
    Assuming that you are in the appropriate asset allocation between stock, bond and cash. Your loss should be much smaller than say S&P500. This should provide comfort knowing that the recovery period will be shorter than S&P500 for example. During 2008 crisis I stayed fully invest in a conservative allocation and the magnitude of loss was much lower than the typical 40% loss. New $ was invested in stock throughout that period despite it was a scary time. I managed to regain the loss and more in about 2.5 years. Since my retirement is near and the market was getting expensive, I rebalanced several times in 2019 to 15% cash, 35% bonds and 50% stocks. Again my loss is smaller compared to that the market's. I have full confidence that I will get through this crisis.
    Our MFO contributor to the Monthly Commentary, Charles Lynn Bolin also writes for Seeking Alpha. Several excellent articles he wrote describe how he constructing low risk and well balanced portfolios utilizing the historical data from MFO Premium site (that you put together).
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4331201-performance-of-low-risk-vanguard-portfolio-year-to-date
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4333593-conservative-portfolios-of-funds-for-this-bear-market
    Best of luck.
  • Escape Plan
    For me, I'm an asset allocator and I manage risk and opportunity through maintaining and/or adjusting my asset allocation based upon my needs, risk tolerance and market conditions. Plus, I limit how much exposure I have to any one fund to better deal with fund manager and strategy risk.. I'm now 72+ years of age and have been an investor since the age of 12.
    In 2008 & 2009 my asset allocation was 10% cash, 20% income and 70% equity. With this, I averaged down the equity side, booking a good bit of losses, as the market continued to side through this process. However, when things turned at the S&P 500 price level of 666, I was there to enjoyed the ride back up.
    Through the years as equities became more overvalued I kept trimming my exposure to them and at retirement I was at an asset allocation of 15% cash, 35% income and 50% equity. This would have been around 2014. I maintained this asset allocation until a little better than a year ago. I continued to reduce my exposure to equities as they became more overvalued and reconfigured to a 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity asset allocation. I wrote about doing this.
    With the recession now in place I have moved to a 15% cash, 40% income and 45% equity allocation. Thus far, in this debacle, I have sold nothing and have been a buyer on the equity side of my portfolio. Now that I have reached a near full asset allocation to equities I have now become a buyer on the income side of my portfolio. This is because many bonds have now taken a hit and from my perspective they offer better value than just holding a greater percentage of cash. Since, my portfolio also generates a good bit of income this gives me the ability to continue to buy in down markets or take the money to my wallet, if needed.
    I've been on the board back into the FundAlarm days and have detailed my investment activity through these years. For me, the asset allocation model of investing has worked well although, at times, I've traded around the edges using special investment positions (spiffs). I've written about these in the past as well.
    FWIW ... Overall, my success in investing, through the years, has come by staying invested and receiving the benefit of organic growth plus compounding. I was there in 1974 with that debacle as well as those that came during the 80's. And, I've been a buyer in all of them including this current bear market which will pass as well.
    And ... so it goes.
    Wishing all ... "Good Investing."
    I am ... Old_Skeet
  • Escape Plan
    Hi Sirs...
    Maybe too late to get out now. Old_skeet snd catch22 post good investing monthly commentary/strategies. Maybe others posted good guides to follow if retired /closed to retirement. I am so glad following many others advise and place mom retired portfolio into conservative last year, 35/65. She lost very little past few months. I got out after Ted got out in ~ 2019.
    I think we will see seesaw patterns next 4-6 weeks /much volatility until everything open up again/slow recovery. Not everything is working currently even CDs so low yields. You can argue stocks are getting cheaper now and these maybe good vehicles to buy moving forward. Corp Bonds not doing well because companies have no revenues going forward and may not be able to pay their creditors.
    If you feel unease perhaps consider place at least 40-60% of portfolio divided in incomes based products [corp bonds/munis/US Tbonds]. Rest of portfolio divided evenly in cash and stocks. You may not loose much on downs days but may not go up if indeed recovery is on the way. Once you see there us indeed recovery 3 -6 months from today perhaps start slowly buy more equities by then.
    Stocks /market maybe lower 4-5 weeks from today, but could be much higher 4-5 years from today
    Maybe another easier lazy approaches maybe redistribute bulk of your portfolio into Tdf 2015 and cash. let it ride by itself, not much worries.
    If you have schwab or fidelity, maybe reasonable to visit their cpa/investment advisors then possibly make up/draw up new escape plans after
    On other thought, maybe a great buyer market imho if you have 15 yrs left.
  • Escape Plan
    Thank you.
    I can honestly say that in my 20 years of active investing, I've never witnessed more fear than I have the past 2-3 weeks. Even 2008-2009.
    At some event level, is there a tipping point? That whatever I can get in CDs is good enough?
  • Massive Carnage In The CEF Space
    UPDATE with a focus on PCI & PDI
    PIMCO CEF Update | It's 2008 Redux
    Summary
    ° The PIMCO UNII report showed some modest progress on coverage and UNII levels.
    ° Obviously, the traditional looks at this report are less important given what is happening in the markets and with these funds specifically.
    ° We expect distributions to be maintained in most of the taxable bond CEFs from PIMCO and that the muni funds are investable for the first time in years.
    ° Most funds earned their distribution in the month according to NII production with small shortfalls in the others. Nothing concerning.
  • Cracker Barrel, Olive Garden Parent Darden Suspend Dividends as Business Falters
    @Mark - Thanks, I couldn't imagine that tax money would be laundered through the Care Act to stockholders but, who knows, what stock holders get, they give back in campaign contributions or favors. I read that Chevron was facing the decision to withhold dividends for the first time and were saying they would never do that. Their problem isn't a virus one, but I would imagine that wouldn't matter for purposes of government help. I am so conservatively invested (if it could be called invested) that my major loses are from CVX stock I inherited as Texaco 40 years ago and just let ride while reinvesting the dividends. Someone like me (and most of us) really don't need the free money we will get (and donate to a need). If I got dividends in addition from a subsidized industry, my head would spin. Thanks again. It's good to know that won't happen.