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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • If I Had Followed My Advisor's Advice - A Look At The Last Eight Years
    To be clear, I'm not advocating that anyone follow this portfolio. I merely offered what I felt to be an interesting illustration of one persons experience.
    The question was raised regarding how fine and dandy this portfolio did over the years since the great recession but how did it perform in the years leading up to same. I don't know but ask yourself how your allocation worked out. My stocks have a combined beta of 0.7-0.8, or 20-30% less volatility then the S&P 500 if you prefer. On paper, if the market tanks I would expect my stocks to tank less. I can't guarantee that of course, it's just how it's supposed to work. The kicker is, even if they don't work that way my 'INCOME' from the portfolio doesn't suffer and as OJ mentioned/suggested that's mostly all I really care about. My bills continue to get paid with plenty left over for other pursuits.
    Finally just so you know, my portfolio is not 100% stocks. It ranges between 70-80% with the remaining in primarily PIMCO CEF's. Included in that 70% stocks are my meager mutual fund holdings.
  • John Mauldin: When The U.S. Falls Into A Recession, A Credit Bubble Will Explode
    Stopped libertarian clock. He said the same thing nine years ago:
    He also said the same thing in February 2009, one month before the market bottomed: https://mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/buy-and-hope-investing-mwo022709
    But here's how I agree with him. The U.S. should pay down its debt. But it should raise taxes to do so. There's no reason we can't have government policies and a social safety net with less debt. The problem is, neocons like Mauldin want to get rid of or dramatically reduce the social safety net so there'll be less debt and older Democrats are too scared to raise taxes. So the can just keeps getting kicked down the road.
  • If I Had Followed My Advisor's Advice - A Look At The Last Eight Years
    @Starchild
    I'm just goofing with the years, some funds and the resulting numbers.
    I'm away to the pillow for an early rise tomorrow; but give a few tickers for some funds you would like to compare.........as with the 60/40........my first easy choice is FBALX
    Same time frame????
    Ok, I'm away and will check Thursday morning.
    Regards,
    Catch
    Ya. I threw in Wellington VWELX and it fared better during the meltdown. Of course, PIMIX punched them all in the gut. Goodnight catch and thanks for the post :-)
  • If I Had Followed My Advisor's Advice - A Look At The Last Eight Years
    @Starchild
    I'm just goofing with the years, some funds and the resulting numbers.
    I'm away to the pillow for an early rise tomorrow; but give a few tickers for some funds you would like to compare.........as with the 60/40........my first easy choice is FBALX
    Same time frame???? Keep in mind that some data with not be available if the fund has not been in place for much time........If one enters "x" number of tickers, the chart will only look back wards to the youngest fund when comparing.
    Ok, I'm away and will check Thursday morning.
    Regards,
    Catch
  • If I Had Followed My Advisor's Advice - A Look At The Last Eight Years
    Good question Derf and the answer I believe is 'who knows.' What I can say with a fair degree of certainty is that barring a dividend cut or elimination the portfolio's income will continue to increase no matter what the value of the equity components do. Those components I would expect will do no worse than the market in general i.e. up-down just like always and just like every other equity/fund/baseline etc..
    FWIW, I have such a portfolio of dividend growth stocks. My portfolio was down approximately 2.98% on price alone. My 'income' from that portfolio was up >10% from the prior year. I realize that's just one years results but the income generated has been doing that for the last 8 years. I'll stick with it until it's broke.
  • If I Had Followed My Advisor's Advice - A Look At The Last Eight Years
    My Question : Will the next 8 years be so generous to the dividend growth portfolio ?
    Derf
  • AQR Funds reopens several funds to new investors
    Can't argue the comments here, but I'll point out, a few years ago here at MFO, AQR was one of those "group think" management themes. Alternative funds that will perform in all economic markets. Obviously, no such thing.
  • Experts vs. Evidence
    Hi Hank,
    Over decades investor annual returns performance is not very impressive. The accumulated data demonstrates that the average investor earns slightly more than half the relevant Index returns. See my reference:
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4108688-investor-returns-vs-market-returns-failure-endures
    So, in hindsight, perhaps my critique of experts was overdone? No!!! The experts claim to fame is that they have special insights. In general, the accumulated data do not support that assertion. Being right about half the time is no great claim to fame. Too, too bad. I sure could use special insights into the market’s future performance and direction. In my case, historical data will suffice lacking any talents in that discipline.
    Thank you for contributing here. Over the many years some of the comments, observations, and references offered by MFOers have influenced my investment strategy and tactics. I do learn, but mostly very slowly and sometimes incorrectly. Investing is a tough business, and it does change over time.
    Best Wishes
  • Barry Ritholtz: Teachers Deserve Better From Retirement-Plan System
    I have not looked at this site for about 10 years; but it appears the discussion board is available to read without any registration, for those inclined to discover more. One will also find various internal links for other information.
    https://403bwise.com/
  • Barry Ritholtz: Teachers Deserve Better From Retirement-Plan System
    “This explains why three-fourths of non-Erisa 403(b) holdings in portfolios are these expensive annuities. There are practically none in 401(k)s.”
    Something doesn’t compute here that 75% of 403-B holdings are in annuities. Teachers aren’t dumb. They’re not going to sit idly by and allow their school board or state to push them into annuities during their working years.
    Would be nice if Rithholtz could be a lot more specific? What age group? What state? What professions? Were this written 30 years ago I would have surmised these folks went into those annuities prior to the law being changed around ‘74 and held onto them. But today?
    Now, there’s a move in Michigan and elsewhere to get rid of DB pension plans. In some cases they’ve been replaced by matching contributions into 403 B plans. I suppose that such a setup might possibly give both parties some incentives to go with traditional annuities - especially the employer.
    -
    Racking my brain on this one. Maybe in some lower education, lower skill-set public sectors there’s a feeling among workers that stocks and mutual funds represent risk, whereas they may view annuities as safer. Don’t know. Just trying to make sense of that 75% figure.
  • Barry Ritholtz: Teachers Deserve Better From Retirement-Plan System
    Judging from the above comments, the components of a 403(b) must depend upon the individual school district.

    (Shooting from 20 or 30 year old memories here.)
    - The 403 B preceded the 401 K by a number of years.
    - The IRS 403 B provision was originally intended to allow certain public employees (including teachers) to shelter from taxes a portion of their pay in annuities. In my early years the plan was often referred to by colleagues as a TSA (Tax-Sheltered Annuity) as that was the original scope of these plans.
    - At some point early on it was expanded to allow these employees to invest in mutual funds. (Employees had pushed for this.) Haven’t time to check, but either by adjucation or legislation that change occurred in the early 70s.
    - OJ is correct (as pertains to where I worked and perhaps more generally). The school district or other employer had control of which fiduciary (and fee based advisor) could handle their workplace account. At first only one fund company was allowed where I worked; and there was a 4+% front load on everything. A few years later the employees organization pushed the employer to include no-load T. Rowe Price as a second option. With Price there were no restrictions as to which funds we might purchase.
    - There was a convenient IRS loophole that lasted until at least the late 90s. It wasn’t widely known. It allowed employees to do 403 B transfers from the plan’s designated fiduciary to any other fund company of choosing while still working / contributing. The transfers could be partial. There was some basic paperwork, but no harder than moving an IRA from one custodian to another would be today.
    - The above loophole was plugged (either by the regulatory authorities or legislation) sometime after 1998.
  • 3 More Outstanding Funds For Dividend Investors
    FYI: (This is a follow-up article.)
    The Barron’s Income column has focused recently on the top-performing dividend funds over the past five years. It’s a way to get sense of which strategies and stocks have worked for equity income investing.
    The first installment focused on the five top-performing ETFs over the past half-decade. The second featured the top five actively managed funds.
    Continuing that theme, these are three more actively managed dividend-focused funds from the next tier of top performers: The Vanguard Dividend Growth (ticker: VDIGX), which is closed to new investors; the Bishop Street Dividend Value (BSLIX), and the Madison Dividend Income (BHBFX).
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/3-more-outstanding-funds-for-dividend-investors-51552573094?refsec=funds
  • Jeffrey Gundlach Says The Stock Market Was And Still Is In A Bear Market
    I don’t think anything is cheap. But to the extent there’s a bubble I’d say it’s in some of the tech stuff and the S&P index which have been bid up greatly in recent years. A lot of my stuff (notably deep value and natural resources) haven’t done much the past few years and are now just playing catch up. I like it!
  • David Snowball's March Commentary Is Now Available
    OK, I revised the article to add the full-cycle comparisons requested by VintageFreak and to update the tables with month ending February performance ... so, the full 10 years.
    The Ten-Year Bull
    I made the full-cylce data for just the top bull market performers, but did not run best performers over full cycle, which seems like a different article. Easy enough to do though, so I'll post a sample here.
    image
  • Larry Swedroe: 2018’s Active Vs. Index Scorecard
    Hi Guys,
    Nothing new here. The performance data remains very persistent in this arena. The few winners in any fund category in any year fail to repeat their outperformance success in the following years. Here is yet another reference that demonstrates that luck is a more significant factor when investing over skill:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-03-05/s-p-fund-manager-study-shows-luck-a-big-factor-in-outperformance
    Newton's first law of motion states that "An object at rest stays at rest and an object in motion stays in motion with the same speed and in the same direction unless acted upon by an unbalanced force."
    This physical law also seems to apply to investing with an unpredictable infrequency exception of an “unbalanced force”. Good luck on predicting when this “unbalance” perturbation will happen. Over the long haul, being good in the investment universe is just a struggle to stay near the averages. That’s best accomplished by filling a portfolio with Index products.
    That’s much easier and ultimately being more profitable then being skilled, and more likely than being lucky. I’m not a very lucky person. It’s hard not to be fooled by randomness,
    Best Regards
  • 2018 Wasn’t The Year Of The Stock Picker: SPIVA Year End 2018
    Hi Guys,
    Year after year the SPIVA reports persistently document the general failure of active fund management to even match the performance delivered by comparable Index products. It's a sad story.
    Over a one year period many excepts do exist ( the Buffetts of the investment world), but even for that short period the odds are often below a 50% outperformance score. Over even a modest 3-year period, the active management outperformance drops to below a disappointing 20% outperformance record. Over longer periods, the failure rate goes north of 90%. Indeed a sad, sad story. Good luck on identifying those 20% that are superior before the fact.
    A few of us have the intuition, the experience, and/or the statistical,analyses skills to successfully make that winning selection. From years of trying, I conclude that I do not. So, basically it's Index investing for me with a small fraction still in active management. I'm a slow and optimistic learner. Good luck to all MFO learners, both fast and slow.
    Best Regards
  • Income Suggestions & Dividend Growth/Income Suggestions?
    Here are a few pages from Schwab about their plan. They (or other providers) can set up and manage a plan for you.
    DB plans can be very useful for tax purposes, generally for high earners over age 50. The reason for that age is that since these are pension plans, the value of the plan at retirement must be enough to sustain the promised pension. The fewer the years until retirement, the more you can/must put into the plan annually to build up to that value. If you've got many years until retirement, you may find the amount you're allowed to contribute limited (since there's a cap on how large your pension can be).
    A couple of caveats excerpted from the first Schwab page:
    • Contributions are generally required annually, and this plan is suited for someone who can contribute $80,000 or more for several years. Note: Contributions are not discretionary—you must make the annual required contributions needed to properly fund the plan.
    • [D]ue to the permanency requirement, the IRS could disqualify the plan if it is terminated in less than five years
    https://www.schwab.com/public/file/P-1604569/SLS25840-05-ST.pdf
    Q&A Guide: https://www.schwab.com/public/file/P-1604574/MKT35488_WB.pdf
    FAQs:
    https://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/investing/accounts_products/accounts/small_business_retirement/personal_defined_benefit_plan/personal_defined_benefit_plan_faqs
    Schwab plan/setup/costs:
    https://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/investing/accounts_products/accounts/small_business_retirement/personal_defined_benefit_plan (multiple tabs)
    A plain English article from the NYTimes with its own set of benefits and risks. In addition to the caveats above, it points out that because defined benefit plans are pension plans, they (like state pension plans) may be required to add extra money beyond what they planned for if the investments don't perform as well as expected. (Amounts in article are from 2012.)
    https://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/01/your-money/defined-benefit-plans-allow-fast-retirement-saving-but-with-risks.html