Massive Carnage In The CEF Space I think you missed my main point. If you use his services he has 3 portfolios for you to select from, the funds/ETF/CEFs/whatever in each and all the trades he does. So yes, you do know his portfolios in detail.
Going to cash with these portfolios and/or what other managers do? I doubt many do it because most managers don't have this flexibility, after all, you pay them to invest your money. Over the years I looked at many mutual funds and from memory, I remember Romick with FPACX at 30-40% cash and Eric Cinnamond in 2008-9 (can't remember the fund) was over 50% in cash.
I don't know any fund that invests at any given time so much in cash.
But, I can do what I want and it's the first time I ever sold everything. It was a great move I will remember for many years to come and probably saved me about 25-30%.
I did sell in the past 20-40% but never that much.
My situation has changed too, I'm retired now so protecting my capital is very important.
So, maybe you should say good for you. I love when other investors are making money and making great moves.
Since I'm flexible I can own any fund at any given time and since last week I'm mostly in HY munis. Why do you need to see my portfolio at all times? if you know my style (2-3 funds) and I said in January this year and several times after that I owned HY Munis and the 3 funds I like are NHMAX,ORNAX,OPTAX and the rest are in Multi and I mentioned IOFIX as the best one, you don't need to be rocket scientist to know that I probably own 2-3 funds out of these 4 funds.
In the last 1-2 days, I also said that since last week I'm in again mostly in HY munis, which funds do think I have? really?
Massive Carnage In The CEF Space The guy who writes these articles is a very good CEFs analyst and sells his services. I love his writings and their depth. Late last year he was posting his portfolio results several times and how they did much better per risk/reward than stocks.
The following is what I posted about the article we are discussing
after years of great results, we are now seeing the real volatility of CEFs where many retail investors didn't understand the risk. While SPY lost over 30% PCI,PDI,PTY lost 43-46% and I'm guessing that your 3 portfolios were down accordingly at the bottom on March 23rd.
Another interesting observation: 3 year annual average performance as of 3/27/20202 is ...BND(index) 4.8.......price return...PCI 2.3%...PDI 3%.......NAV return is even worse...PCI 0.1%...PDI 1.1%. It's an eye-opener.
IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't It was a quick unique black swan. The last one, 2008-9, was slower. The hard part, the next one can be years from now and you would invest based on the last fiasco. Many would buy US bond index or treasuries just to see an average annual return of 2-2.5% in the next several years.
IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't I got killed here, losing over 40% in a month. I failed to ask and answer the why did I buy this in advance. The answer would have been for income. But what I bought was something with greater than equity risk in the name of boosting the return of the bond component of my portfolio. Wrong fund for the intended mission. This buy resulted in the biggest loss in the shortest time I've experienced in over 30 years. No asset manager likes to see assets leave their fund, but I think this fund could have done a much better job communicating with shareholders, and protecting their risk. Maybe more investors would have stayed. The best equity funds do this in tough times and with success keep investors on their team. I think of a firm like Grandeur Peak, for example.
AGG Up 8.4% This Week Usually, but not always. Index funds, especially bond index funds, are also managed, though perhaps not in the way you are thinking.
A long narrative about nothing. We are talking about US tot bond index. The following 3 different funds from 3 different companies are very close. For 5
years as of 3-27-2020...BND(VG)+FXNAX(Fidelity)+AGG(Blackrock) performance is 3.36-3.37%.
This is what you call investing based on an index and why they are so close.
I didn't say ALL indexes in all cases, but, you knew all that.
Timeless advice from Peter Bernstein Timeless advice from Peter Bernstein - bumped into this interview via Seeking Alpha
https://jasonzweig.com/a-long-chat-with-peter-l-bernstein/.
Timeless advice from Peter Bernstein Peter Bernstein Interview. — Money.com, Oct. 15, 2004
Quotes:
Because the more you think this is easy, the more you persuade yourself that you can take the heat. And then, the sooner the oven gets hot, the more shocked you are and the worse you get burned. After 50
years in the investment business I still haven’t got it all clear.
Understanding that we do not know the future is such a simple statement, but it’s so important. Investors do better where risk management is a conscious part of the process.
Somebody once said that if you’re comfortable with everything you own, you’re not diversified.
The great Michigan economist Paul MacCracken, at the blackest moment of 1974, told me never to believe in apocalyptic scenarios.
20 years at 4% Yes, exactly. That's why I love looking at rolling returns. You can't decide the year you were born and the 20-year period(s) you were invested. Going back 60 years through February, the S&P 500 delivered anywhere from 5.6% to 18.3% annualized over 481 20-year rolling periods. Timing is everything.
20 years at 4% "... not a single equity sector generated a double-digit annualized return over the last 20 years, nor did any major asset class."
Letting that sink in a minute. That's harsh Dude.
20 years at 4% I've asked for permission to reproduce the two graphics from today's Research Note in our April issue. One gave the returns for about 20 assets or indexes and the other compared current valuations to today's. I'll share if I'm allowed.
Other highlights from today's Leuthold note:
... these results mostly reflect how exorbitant valuations were at the start of that 20-year span, and not how depressed they are today.
...the S&P 500 isn’t yet statistically cheap, but it is vastly more attractive than it was just five weeks ago.
... not a single equity sector generated a double-digit annualized return over the last 20 years, nor did any major asset class.
Incredibly, the S&P 500 Energy sector (+2.4%) and Technology sector (+2.7%) delivered about the same results to those who bought them in March 2000 and held on for the ride.
In sum, initial valuations matter, and the only good thing to come out of the last five weeks’ action is that the “cost of entry” into the S&P 500 has finally closed in on its historical average, and almost all other stock market cohorts (domestic and international) are well below their averages. Veteran investors will recall that the Y2K peak proved to be an excellent time to shift into Mid and Small Caps, and it’s worth noting that median valuations for these stocks are 15-25% below those prevailing at that historic turning point. Keep this good news in mind when dealing with the coming onslaught of bad news.
20 years at 4% Nope, not a bond yield.
Today is the 20th anniversary of the peak of the dot-com bubble. According to the Leuthold Group, returns for the S&P 500 have averaged 4.4% per year from that date to this one. The MSCI Emerging Markets and Barclays Bond Aggregate have had identical 5% returns. Mid-caps and small caps have substantially bested all three.
Among the sliced and diced domestic sub-sectors:
S&P 500 High Beta: -1.4% annually
S&P 500 Low Volatility: 9.2%
S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats: 9.3%
FSTE NAREIT Index: 9.0%
Spot gold: 9.0%
Of course measuring for the moment before one market collapse to a moment somewhere within another one is weird and unrepresentative. We ought all remember that the next time someone tries pedaling an investment based on its 3- or 5-year returns when those returns fall within a window of steadily rising prices.
See? I'm an optimist! I'm foreseeing the New Bull and the New Bull marketing campaigns.
Cheers!
Best websites for tracking portfolios? the problem i have with fidelity and most other sites i've tried is that they don't let you sort your holdings by % amount of the total portfolio. seems very basic and i've complained about it at fidelity for years, to no effect.
Money Market Funds @msf- thanks again. Actually, I had found that page and downloaded the pdf file. After your link reference, I did so a number of times and was getting really frustrated because there was NO reference to NAV.
FINALLY I noticed that the script blocker on this computer's browser (a Firefox-based variant optimized for these old Apple G5's) was indicating that
some resource had been blocked. When I overrode that the section with the NAV info appeared as if by magic. I'll certainly keep an eye on that info.
We actually have a couple of mac Mini's which are much faster and able to handle browsing with no problems, but I generally use the old G5 because it can handle the ancient (Apple OS 9) financial SS which I've been using for some 20
years. It has certain macro functionality which can't be replicated in current spreadsheets, and the financial SS uses a fair number of those automated macro computing routines. All I have to do is copy the daily M* portfolio report, paste it into the SS, push a couple of buttons, and it's all done... everything computed and updated, with graphs showing complete results quarter-by-quarter, and a page showing each fund's performance, both since the previous entry session and YTD.
The SS is certainly dated- Apple had this SS when MS was still using DOS. Old, but good. Like my wife. :)
Best websites for tracking portfolios? The advantage to M*, when it worked, is that I could track and compare fund returns YTD, and 1,3,5,10 and 15 years. I don’t see how I could do that using a spreadsheet. M* also allows you to customize portfolio views so that it displays yields, expense ratios, standard deviations and other factors. My problem isn’t with their portfolio function, per se, but the fact that the site won’t let me stay logged in. It’s crazy. I utilize dozens of websites that don’t have an issue keeping users logged in, only M*
If today's gains hold up.... Yeah. And if it keeps going up, those of us that track to month-ending data only, there may never have been a bear! (Not my view, just saying.) The daily volatility this month (bond funds included) feels like five years! It is not something longer-term investors want to contend with ... and, if they don't, they better pick their long-term investments accordingly. And, while ETFs have their share of skeptics, they may be better at reflecting true NAV (including liquidity risk) than some OEFs. Today anyway. c
IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't I'm still in also. What I learned about myself recently is that I can tolerate a 40% drop in a stock I hold, but an equivalent drop in a bond fund makes me retch. IOFAX has not recovered, but ORNAX has rebounded in the last two days.
I totally agree with
@BenWP about the gut wrenching feeling to lose so much in a bond fund, but I came up with a different decision. I'm betting IOFAX does not come back, so I sold out.
My small mind doesn't see how the fund can sell off most or much of it's portfolio of holdings at discount prices to make seller-redemptions and expect what remains in the portfolio to recover those losses. Talk about not having any dry powder. I fear this fund has just as much potential to drop another 20% over the next month than it has to increase 20% over the next 3
years.
Given that, why not take that money and put it into something that has greater likelihood to recover? That was my thought anyway and I may be waaaaay wrong.
Best websites for tracking portfolios? Hi
@Derf- Yes, adding an entire account is easy, and I have done that with a number of our bank accounts. But I need more granularity: I need to have a consolidated list of all of our individual funds, not just the fund totals.
I've just been over at Schwab, exploring the "Tools", and once again I cannot see a way to do this.
For many
years I've done this using M*, where it's easy to construct a portfolio model. Over there, I've got a "portfolio" consisting of one share of each fund, since I have no idea who is able to look at that info and do lord knows what with it. M* updates the share prices daily (with variable accuracy) and I just copy that info and paste it into my spreadsheet where all of the actual data is kept with respect to number of shares etc.
The spreadsheet then calculates the actual totals for each fund and computes the YTD, "since purchase", and "since last entry" gain or loss update for each fund. Sometimes, like now that we're stuck here at home, I do that daily; other times it's weekly or maybe just when I feel like it.
OJ
? DSENX-DSEEX a little help please if you can As I have said before, trading CAPE is an adventure as there is often a lag between what the market is doing and a big gap between the bid and the ask prices. Trading volumes are usually low. With no commissions, it's now possible to buy small positions with only the price to worry about. Limit trades are a necessity. CAPE is far more tax efficient than DSENX because it doesn't throw off dividends.
True dummy thought --- how does it track VOO and DSEEX so closely without reinvested divs? NAV alone? Also not seeing why limits are a necessity unless daytrading. Perhaps I am just foggier than my norm today.
Did you ever see this from a couple
years ago (SMWilliams seekingalpha, cached)? Sounds unlikely.
This ETN could essentially play a similar role to an overall index equity ETF as a core portfolio fund with better risk-adjusted returns. However, since this is not an ETF but an ETN, I'd be hesitant with recommending it due to the fact that it has no underlying holdings but instead is an unsecured debt obligation only. The ETN only has 4 underlying indexes that it tracks in equal weights every month, so for an investor who wants to track the ETN but is uncomfortable with the ETN structure, you can see the indexes that it tracks online and replicate it by buying ETFs that cover those sectors, currently 25% consumer discretionary, 25% health care, 25% industrials, and 25% technology. The ETN has a 0.45% fee, Vanguard's Sector ETFs have a 0.10% fee, so depending on trading costs, you might end up paying less fees and you'd own an actual interest in the sector's stocks rather than just a credit note.
To replicate this ETN in its current state with Vanguard ETFs, you'd calculate the total equity allocation you have and buy 25% of it in each: the Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (VCR), the Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT), the Vanguard Healthcare ETF (VHT), and the Vanguard Industrials ETF (VIS) - which is what it holds as of September 29. Every month you'd check back on the website (or on this site which might have more up to date information on its holdings) and see what portfolio changes have been made and adjust your own portfolio. Although this would take much more time than just buying a simple static ETF portfolio, which should be enough for most people, but if you want to optimize your portfolio for less risk, this could be a relatively simple adjustment to make.
Best websites for tracking portfolios? I track our portfolio for years. I use Fidelity FULL VIEW and/or Schwab(it shows up automatically). You need to link each account/broker. And no, I'm not scared my info will be abused. This way I see the aggregate amount per fund across all account/broker and they are accurate including all distributions. It takes 10 minutes to create the links and then you are free for years.
M* portfolio are ridiculous and not accurate. I gave up on them after using them for several weeks years ago.
IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't
CARES ACT, allows penalty free withdraws up to $100k from 401K, 403B accts. Everyone needs an emergency fund...invested conservatively...to cover basic expenses for rent, food, and insurances. The question is how many months or
years should you prepare for?
“If you lose your job or are recently retired, you do not want to have to sell stocks at a low point during a bear market or take a distribution or loan from your 401(k) account or IRA because you are cash poor.”