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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Sources state that, Trump is asking advisers if can fire Fed. Chair Powell.....
    @Mark
    Thank you for the Canada link.
    Canada/U.S. border states and U.S. cable companies in those states may provide CBC tv.
    Some cable companies in Michigan do provide this feed; and the NEWS feed is readily available on the net. The network has always been a pleasure and of interest for "their" perspective of the neighbors to the south.
    Many years ago, before cable was available; we had a 40' tower/rotor with a high gain antenna and first discovered CBC with this when aimed east, towards Toronto.
    If one had access to CBC from years ago and enjoyed very good satire/comedy; two wonderful programs were: "Royal Canadian Air Farce" and "This hour has 22 minutes".
    A few web sites from about 20 years ago used to exist that were intended for "discussion" between citizens of both countries. The discussions were mostly civil in nature.
    From Michigan soil, one may view Canada to the east and north without much difficulty, but there is no direct land connection. If we had too, we could "blow up" a few large bridges and a tunnel to help keep them out. So, basically; Michigan uses a "moat" , being the Great Lakes and narrow channel waterways, for initial protection. 'Course, some of the waterways are very narrow and may be crossed during a very cold winter period. A land invasion into Michigan, from Canada, would take place only after forces had fallen in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Indiana and Ohio.
    I thank our lucky stars at this house that we took the time many years ago to become fluent in our neighbors language. Useful for travel and perhaps for negotiating for something in the future.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • GMO White Paper: The Late Cycle Lament: The Dual Economy, Minsky Moments, And Other Concerns
    I would be on suicide watch if I was down 4.6% YTD (or for that matter 1% or 2%). and I have definitely been around the block a few times.
    I appreciate the sentiment. Different situations require different approaches. But I’m wondering if, perhaps, we’ve been around “different blocks” over our lifetimes? I’ve always associated increased risk with increased potential reward. Over my 50 years investing (my “block”, so to speak), I’ve witnessed the following:
    A 22.6% one-day drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (1987).
    An 86% one-year increase in the NASDAQ (1999).
    A 50% decline in the NASDAQ the following year.
    A 50% drop in the S&P in fewer than 2 years (2007-‘09).
    The “halving” of home values across large portions of the U.S. over just 3 or 4 years (2007-10)
    Japan’s Nikkei 225 topping out @ 39,000 (1989) & bottoming @ 7,055 20 years later.
    Gasoline at 16-cents a gallon - and at $5.00 a gallon.
    The price of gold @ $35 and @ $1600.
    A United States prime lending rate of 22% (1983) and 3% (2015)
    Mortgage rates as high as 15-20% and as low as 3%.
    New full-sized American autos priced at $3,000 (1970) / new pickups priced at $70,000 (today).
    The Enron (energy) fiasco, Michael Milken and junk bonds, Richard Strong and mutual funds, and Bernard Madoff with his ponzi scheme.
    The Vietnam War, the 9-11 attacks, the impeachment of two Presidents and attempted assassination of two others.
    In short, stuff happens. No one should ever put money at risk in the markets that they can’t afford to (or aren’t willing to) lose.
  • Sources state that, Trump is asking advisers if can fire Fed. Chair Powell.....
    @Old_Skeet
    Long held views by some since the forming of the Federal Reserve; involve all forms of control and manipulation to the advantage of a special group of the ultra-rich and all powerful. Beyond any number of conspiracy theories and suggestions; the legal function is described below, although one understands that the institution has morphed over the years as it travels the path of the ever changing financial world. Congressional testimony over the years has found a number of congressional folks plowing along with a "why can't you folks "fix" this or that? The reply is always, this is not our area of responsibility; and that this (whatever) function or change must take place through congressional actions.
    --- The U.S. Congress established three key objectives for monetary policy in the Federal Reserve Act: maximizing employment, stabilizing prices, and moderating long-term interest rates. The first two objectives are sometimes referred to as the Federal Reserve's dual mandate.
    ADD: Another piece of the puzzle?
    The U.S. debt to China is $1.138 trillion as of October 2018. That's 29 percent of the $3.9 trillion in Treasury bills, notes, and bonds held by foreign countries. The rest of the $21 trillion national debt is owned by either the American people or by the U.S. government itself.
    China has the greatest amount of U.S. debt held by a foreign country. Japan comes second at $1.018 trillion, followed by Brazil at $314 billion. Ireland holds $287 billion, and the United Kingdom owns $264 billion.
    Lastly, one must presume the uttering of POTUS as to his extreme knowledge of just about any subject, without intervention or consul from others. He continues to weave a web into circles of misdirection.
  • An Income Fund’s Flexible Strategy Pays Dividends: (TIBAX)
    I look at the headline for this thread and then look at its results. -6.43 YTD and a paltry 3.40% annualized the past 5 years. No thanks! But so as not to sound contentious, I fully understand we all play this game from different comfort levels and varied goals. Another thing I have noticed are those who have pensions in retirement see things through an entirely different lens than those of us without a pension.
  • An Income Fund’s Flexible Strategy Pays Dividends: (TIBAX)
    @Ted: Thanks again for making post about yet another fund (TIBAX) that Old_Skeet just happens to own. I enjoy reading these featured blurbs that you make post of. I have owned this fund for about fifteen years and I have found that it has achieved it's goal to provide a steady stream of increasing income along with some growth of principal through the years since I have owned it. I also like looking through its semi and annual fund reports as they show how the fund's positioning changes, by the quarter, over the past four quarters.
    I hold this fund in my global hybrid sleeve which is found in the growth & income area of my portfolio. The two other fund members within this sleeve are CAIBX & TEQIX.
    It is funds like these that help me stay the course through the ups and downs of market cycles. Should these funds become cheap enough in the current market swoon I'll be a buyer of their shares.
    I like to think that my portfolio is aligned with an income and growth asset allocation of 20% cash, 40% fixed income and 40% equity. For me, this is an all weather asset allocation. I have enough cash to substain myself if the swoon continues and to buy additional shares if and when I feel good opportunity avails. Plus, by staying invested I continue to receive a good income stream and when the market turns upward, there again, I have enoungh equity assets to realize the benefit of the stock market's upward move. I'm strongly thinking of opening an equity spiff (special investment) position soon through a position cost average approach.
    In addition, investing is somewhat like farming ... some years are just better than others. In both, you have to plant or invest before you can make harvest.
    I wish all ... "Good Investing."
    Old_Skeet
  • An Income Fund’s Flexible Strategy Pays Dividends: (TIBAX)
    FYI: he Thornburg Investment Income Builder fund was launched in late 2002 with a straightforward premise. “We believed that we were going to have an attractive dividend and grow it over time,” says Brian McMahon, one of the fund’s three co-managers, who took part in the launch.
    The $14 billion fund (ticker: TIBAX) has been able to stick to that goal by adjusting its allocation to stocks and bonds, in line with the dramatically shifting market conditions over the past 16 years. The fund has grown its dividend at an annual clip of about 4.5%, and added capital appreciation of 3.5% per annum on top of that. The portfolio’s recent trailing 12-month yield was 4.4%.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/an-income-funds-flexible-strategy-pays-dividends-51545390000?refsec=income-investing
    M* Snapshot TIBAX:
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/TIBAX/quote.html
    Lipper Snapshot TIBAX:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/tibax
    TIBAX Ranks #11 In The (WA) Fund Category By U.S. News & World Report:
    https://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/world-allocation/thornburg-investment-income-builder-fund/tibax
  • Ed Perks, Franklin Income Fund Manager, Outlook For 2019: (FKINX)
    @Ted: Thanks for posting the article on Franklin Income Fund. It was nice to read about one of my holdings once again. At 70+ years in age myself the fund has been one of my holdings since my teenage years. It has also grown through the years to become one of my larger holdings.
  • Ed Perks, Franklin Income Fund Manager, Outlook For 2019: (FKINX)
    FYI: You might expect a 70-year-old mutual fund with $74 billion in assets to be set in its ways.
    But the Franklin Income Fund’s holdings have gone through big changes in recent years. Ed Perks, the fund’s lead manager, described those shifts as well as the uncertain investing landscape of 2018 and what he sees ahead.
    The Franklin Income Fund FKINX, -0.93% FRIAX, -0.94% was launched in August 1948. The fund’s objective is to maximize income while also seeking opportunities for capital growth, with a diversified, actively managed portfolio of stocks, bonds and convertible securities.
    In an interview on Dec. 18, Perks said the fund was about evenly allocated between fixed-income and equity investments. At the beginning of 2018 the allocation was about 40% fixed income and 60% equities. Perks said that this year the fund’s management team has “softened its overall investment posture,” in order to “reduce total expected portfolio risk going forward.”
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/there-will-be-plenty-of-opportunity-for-investors-in-2019-says-manager-of-74-billion-franklin-income-fund-2018-12-21/print
    M* Snapshot FKINX:
    http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=FKINX&region=usa&culture=en_US
    Lipper Snapshot FKINX:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/fkinx
    FKINX Is Rank #21 In The (30%-50%-E) Fund Category By U.S. News & World Report:
    https://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/allocation-30-to-50-equity/franklin-income-fund/fkinx
  • PDI
    Howdy @expatsp
    We've not had PDI or PCI in our holdings; but took a curious look from a technical angle of this complex holding. The recent price action through Thursday showed continued strong downward pricing; and apparently final distributions have already taken place for the year on Dec. 12 and/or 14.
    We look at charts like this short term view for watching the moving average lines and which directions they are traveling. In particular the 50 day and its current trend. I've looked at 20 day too; for something we may have an interest in buy or sell.
    PDI, 6 months, daily pricing chart
    This 5 year is more of an overview of the longer term trend, just to look, eh?
    PDI, 5 years, daily pricing chart
    NOTE: The 5 year chart pricing suggests there is some correlation to the trend of U.S. equity; as with the 2015-16 period of down and sideways for equity.
    As to "income" oriented investments, as with this product; in spite of the hard equity crashes taking place now, even the U.S. treasury issues can not hold a rally into safety assets. I would not expect PCI to benefit from any flight to quality/safety.
    I can only offer the chart actions overviews above; for my 2 cents worth.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • Morningstar Fair Market Value Chart -- Cheapest Since 2012
    I chose 4 funds I'm a bit familiar with just for the heck of graph city going back to May, 2011 and to look at the lines as to what anyone may consider a fair or not so fair price from those days, through today.
    >>>So, the chart funds.....well, Fido health is a decent long time, fairly broad based fund. Fido balanced, well within the high end of returns for similar funds. Fido Growth has a decent long term record and represents a broad group of growth stuff. ITOT is a kinda SP500 with a dash of mid and sm cap U.S.
    >>>The chart starts with May, 2011 when Europe was still having monetary fits and the soon to come downgrade of U.S. gov't issued debt put a bang in the equity markets for a spell. Moving along, part of the 2015 and 2016 period were sideways, as reflected in the charting. And on to now.........
    A semi random mix of equity types and bonds with FBALX, all U.S. directed. Non-U.S. is a different critter not covered here.
    Go ahead, its okay; decide for yourself. Any of these in the chart undervalued since 6 years or so ago? Me? I'm just a profit pig and attempt to buy as low as I think I "see" and sell with what seems a reasonable profit.
    I'll leave the link open for viewing the tickers.
    https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?FSPHX,FBALX,FDGRX,ITOT&n=1922&O=011000
    OK........pillow time here.....good night.
  • MFO Ratings Updated Through November 2018
    Mairs & Power past 7 years through November ...
    image
  • U.S. Equity Fund Sell-Off Tops $46B What's Next?
    Dollar wise or % wise ? @ hank: Derf
    I guess that would be % - wise Derf. Most anything with risk exposure will fall in both dollar terms and percentage terms during a bad market. At the same time, cash and bonds will normally increase as a percentage of your assets. At last look, my normal 38-42% allocation to equity weighted funds (mostly balanced funds) had slipped from 39.5% mid-summer to 38.5%.
    Haven’t checked recently because of all the distributions - and being otherwise occupied. Suspect that when the dust settles (distribution season ends) the equity loaded portion will come in a bit under 38%. That’s where my pre-sets would mandate rebalancing back to 40%. Should that portion fail to fall below 38% no rebalance would occur. Other portfolio areas with risk exposure (in particular real-assets) have also experienced losses the past couple months and might be due for a rebalance.
    My thinking for a couple years has been that equity valuations had “over-reached” and couldn’t be sustained at those levels. IMHO a steady measured approach (neither rushing in nor rushing out) is a good way to go. I’m off between 3 and 4% YTD. If you’re willing to expose your money to the markets in pursuit of better long-term returns (and inflation protection), that’s a very small loss ... “Ay, ay, a scratch, a scratch.”
  • Consuelo Mack's WealthTrack : Guest: Ed Hyman & Matthew McLennan: 2019 New Year Outlook
    Part II of the interview is coming, and I cannot wait. Nevertheless I tend to more agree with Matt McClennan's view after following him for a number of years. His thoughtful approach is particularly appealing particularly in today environment -quite the opposite to Cliff Asness (AQR funds).
  • Consuelo Mack's WealthTrack : Guest: Ed Hyman & Matthew McLennan: 2019 New Year Outlook
    Well worthwhile to hear from Ed Hyman and Matt McLennan. Hyman is more optimistic and does not see recession until several years from now. Also he likes the newer tech stocks that create new markets. As usual McLennan discussed how he positions his portfolio (defensively) in today environment,
  • Does Anyone Care About Year-Ahead Outlooks?
    @AndyJ, Just watch Hyman and McLennan interview - very informative. Ed Hyman likes new technology stock that open up new markets and he thinks recession is at least 3 years away. Matt McLennan takes a defensive approach in his portfolio.
  • Larry Swedroe: Inaccurate Indicator
    I am puzzled by the article since it got into detail about inversion between 2 and 5 years (which I believe recently happened) but I thought the prediction of recession was an inversion for the two and 10 year bonds. It also suggested you could not use to market time while indicating that it might bea good idea to sell one year after the inversion.(one year result better than 3 year)
    Maybe someone wiser than I can explain.
  • Still mulling the field of foreign small cap growth/blend funds
    To each one's own. Portfolio visualizer says that these funds have an R² ranging from 76% (DRIOX and GPIIX) to 90% (GPIIX and PRIDX) based on monthly returns. With DRIOX at least, that's not an insignificant degree of differentiation. So I see your point. For me, I'm content waiting for the funds to even out in the long run.
    Not really being familiar with Driehaus, I did a little research. Momentum shop. Not my cup of tea - I've invested in a few and found they run hot and cold. Which goes toward explaining their poorer correlation with other funds investing in the same space.
    DRIOX has had turnover above 300% (I only looked back five years). While Dick Strong still put that to shame, that turnover rate is still way up there. M* shows, not surprisingly, that this is not a tax efficient fund. So I'd be inclined to use it, if at all, in tax sheltered accounts.
    There are various strategies that work. You've obviously found one that works for you. I'm at a point where I'm trying to keep my main funds (i.e. ones other than placeholders) down to a reasonable number, say 20 or so. (Like everything else, "reasonable" is in the eye of the beholder.)
  • Still mulling the field of foreign small cap growth/blend funds
    Some years ago, DRIOX and FKSCX (both of which were closed due to incoming monies) were performing well while PRIDX was somewhat as well as the DRIOX and FKSCX. Over the last couple of years or so (until early 2018 when the international market started to sputter) PRIDX was performing well while DRIOX and FKSCX started to perform mediocre. My point is that while some faltered, my others investments picked up the slack. I didn't invest all my money in one particular fund.
    I also owned ARTJX which did well in the very beginning when it was first offered in 2002 with AUM nearing $1B at its peak; however, over the last several years, ARTJX started to perform mediocre. I started to look at other options; hence, PRIDX, DRIOX, and GPIIX. I recently sold my ARTJX due to the fund change as well as the large CG paid. We all know the recent change involving ARTJX.
  • Still mulling the field of foreign small cap growth/blend funds
    Thanks for the thoughts.
    I agree (with slick) that it usually takes some time for a new manager to put his own imprint on a fund. Not infrequently the old fund does at least as well as the new fund even after that. A too easy example is PIMCO/Bill Gross. Sometimes, both funds do well (TCW/Gundlach). Wait and see sounds reasonable.
    It looks like DRIOX is open (though it is closed at some brokerages, e.g. Vanguard). It's TF at Schwab and Fidelity, and NTF at Merrill Edge. A quick glance shows performance, asset mix (small, growth oriented; fair smattering of EM), and cost 1.23% all adding up to a reasonable candidate. But what is going on with 143% turnover? I haven't looked closely into this yet. The other funds you (shadow) have are closer to 25% turnover.
    I do have access to the other two funds (maintaining a small toehold for just such a use), so that's not a concern for me. Though I checked with T. Rowe Price and they will not move a holding in kind from an IRA to a taxable account. So if one is planning to gain access that way, be forewarned.
    Out of curiosity, what's your thinking in holding a few different funds in the same space? Personally, I find that if there are two (I try to keep it down to that number) or three that I really can't decide between, I'll put money into all of them. After a few years, either I feel more comfortable with one of them and stick with that one, or still don't find much difference. In that case, I'll say what the heck and just pick one since the choice among them doesn't seem to make a difference.
  • Still mulling the field of foreign small cap growth/blend funds
    @msf: I have held OSMAX for about 5 years, and am watching both ARTJX and OSMAX to see when to switch over to Artisan, likely after first of year. It usually takes a while for the new portfolios to appear. Following Kanovich, as I like what he did at Oppenheimer. They are held in tax deferred accounts, so not concerned over capital gains as each fund sells some of portfolio in favor of their own picks.