@Ted: Thanks much for all the post you have made here at MFO and FundAlarm. I found a good number of them to be very beneficial. Even though you are going to retire from being active in the markets I hope you will continue to post. Wishing you the very best in the coming years. Cordially, Old_Skeet

Hi @Mark
Reminds of a company I worked for, for a number of years. The company always observed Columbus Day as a paid holiday, but not Veteran's Day. Over 4 different years I submitted a paper request to change this policy going forward. My last request became totally to the absurd side of life in a final attempt to attach more attention to the situation ....."As there are more military veterans, versus those of Italian heritage; among the 1,000's of employees, I humbly request that this holiday observance day be changed."
'Course, the change never took place.
Take care,
Catch

Ouch! Parnassus has had huge distributions for two years in a row now.

@MFO Members: Litman Gregory has used the well known multi-manager theme for years, its nothing more than a marketing ploy with less that stellar performance numbers.
Regard,
Ted

FYI: After being locked out of power for the past two years, Democrats won a seat at the table in the midterm elections by taking control of the House of Representatives.
But what should the new Democratic majority focus on? During the past few years, I have been writing about middle-of-the-road issues where there are signs of consensus -- issues with significant economic and market implications that make good policy for the entire country.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-11-07/four-agenda-items-new-congress-should-embrace

FYI: After years of underperforming large company stocks, small companies and mid-caps have made a comeback this year. And Lamar Villere, who co-manages the Villere Balanced Fund, thinks the stage is set for these smaller names to assume a market leadership position in the years to come.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/the-next-act-for-small-caps-41495.html?print
M* Snapshot VILLX:
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/VILLX/quote.html
Lipper Snapshot VILLX:
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/villx
VILLX Is Ranked #22 In The (A70/85E) Fund Category By U.S. News & World Report:
https://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/allocation-70-to-85-equity/villere-balanced-fund/villx

FYI: Kathleen tied the again—at age 71. Four years into widowhood, I met Charlie online. Also widowed, he and I began dating cautiously, each respectful of our late spouses and those marriages, as well as our adult children and grandchildren.
Regards,
Ted

@crash
I was expecting a nice gain for PRWCX that day as well and was even in denial for awhile that evening thinking the NAV had not been updated yet. :) Once reality set in I took comfort in knowing how much PRWCX had killed it over the past 12 years of our being shareholders of the fund. Every actively managed fund will have a day where it is out of step with the market. Otherwise, it's an index fund.

Hi @AndyJ
Thank you for the reference (St. Louis Fed.), and @David_Snowball for the Leuthold "info" and posting same.
The "liquidity" .................an area I attempt to ascertain and distinguish from other items within the financial world.
We investors live within a financial world; were aside from a boatload of money sloshing about in places known and unknown to us; must also have a full faith in the system that the quality of money between/among parties does not fall apart and become a problem of liquidity. My "investors" reference is not just related to the folks here; but must also include most of the big kids, too. They are subject to having their investment pants pulled down, too.
The full faith in the system is very critical, IMHO; and as we have witnessed in the past, can develop flaws and cracks from real reasons which then may begin a massive lost of faith that monetary functions can be maintained in some form of civil fashion and not cause great stress to the system.
Indebtedness is global; but relative to this country, as you noted; the debt piles are so large from a corporate measure, and the debt pile continues down into the public sector.
One example, the auto companies, in their advertising; do everything possible to pull in the "sub-prime" customer. Hey, folks; we can help you afford that $55k truck you're wanting. Okay, this will end well, eh? Too many in our society have no mental discipline for a budget and the spending involved with same. A recent report indicates the following for the regular folks:
---average American credit card debt = $6,375, average household = $17,000 and average annual credit card interest = $1,300.
None of this bodes well at some point down the road.
I continue to watch the bond side of money for cracks in the system, as I feel this could be the problem area that places cracks into the equity side.
Sadly, I/we are running out of time at this household; as we've been at this investment party for 40 years. We got "lucky" leaving the party early in 2008 while there were still chairs available before the music stopped. I'm not so sure we can be "lucky" twice in such a short time frame.
The rough part will be leaving a passion and breaking a habit; as well as deciding where to park the money in a hands off mode.
Lastly, @AndyJ ; have you anything else in particular that you watch for cracks and stress in the world of bonds and debt? Any reference links would be most appreciated. Thank you.
Take care,
Catch

The folks at the Leuthold Group have an almost-daily subscriber newsletter that discusses their most recent research and, occasionally, how they're positioning their fund portfolios.
Today's note might have been titled, "we've seen this picture before."

Today’s backdrop from an economic, liquidity, and technical perspective is very reminiscent of all three of those prior tops (1990, 2000, 2007) in ways that are too numerous to cover here. But one that’s especially worrisome is the blowout in spreads on low- grade corporate bonds. The yield gap between Moody’s BAA corporates and the 10-year Treasury yield is up about 50 basis points since the January stock market high, poking above the 2% level that preceded several U.S. recessions. Note the market tops of 2000 and 2007 featured similar patterns of credit deterioration just as the stock market was issuing the “all-clear” signal by breaking above its pre-correction highs. Credit patterns did not show similar deterioration leading into the 1990 bull market top; even the “bond guys” sometimes get it wrong. But we are not inclined to bet against their message here.Stay defensive.

They reported earlier this week that their flagship Leuthold Core Fund (LCORX) had moved to its portfolio to the most defensive positioning permitted by prospectus. I suspect their ongoing concern about the market's health is reflected in the fund's changing beta values. Over the past three years, beta has been about .60 but over the past 10 and 15 year periods they've allowed it to live above 1.00.
David

I wondered how a manager would have to pay out so much in distributions. The answer is that the rats have been abandoning ship. A glance at the Premium portfolio holdings tab shows that Rolfe has been selling from every single position in America's best growth stocks. And M* says to stick with him! A one star, bronze rated fund is now on sale.

M* was totally behind Arnott and PAUIX for years too, as I recall. Even as PAUIX and its 20% short SPX position dragged the fund lower and lower during the 'bull' market of the past 10 years, they kept saying it was a good fund and praising his discipline. Puh-lease.
M* stars, picks, and recommendations are just noise in the machine, at least to me. Some useful nuggets in the analyst reports from time to time, but I don't pay any attention to their star ratings or their (or anyone's) list of stocks-to-buy-now, stocks-that-are-undervalued, etc....

Since, all my mutual funds held in my IRA pay their distributions in cash (rather than reinvest) I take my RMD in January of each year. This gives me a full year to accru for this. In most cases I have enough cash on hand to meet the RMD without having to sell anything. Any residual cash gets invested or it can be held and put towards next years RMD.

Hi Crash, The fund has morphed over the years into pretty much a “go anywhere” fund. Pretty darn hard to “read” its daily behavior for that reason. I knew they played with derivatives. Wasn’t aware (as you claim) it shorts stocks - but it wouldn’t surprise me. One thought - Gold (and materials) had an uncharacteristically big day Thursday. So if the fund is shorting any of that stuff, it would have gotten dinged. Even if substantially “underweight” materials (but not shorting) it would have lagged some of the broader indexes. TRP has been bearish on the commodities / materials sectors for several years.
Compared to many other conservative equity / balanced funds, PRWCX is still having a respectable year. DODBX is positive but lags it. OAKBX and RPGAX are actually in the red.
PRWCX - Lipper Breakdown (From Reuters)
http://www.funds.reuters.wallst.com/US/funds/holdings.asp?YYY622_6sBkEkBoRVEDVUmnzYdySBuZTH3KwZb8EX/lL+8rQLfc70v/pOneMtJCmBtqvYsy
TOP 10 HOLDINGS % of Assets (Change vs 1Q Ago)
1 Keurig Dr Pepper Inc ORD
KDP
4.2%
(+11.0%)
2 T Rowe Price Government Money Fund
PRRXX.O
4.1%
3 Marsh & McLennan Companies Inc ORD
MMC
3.2%
(+2.1%)
4 Microsoft Corp ORD
MSFT.O
3.0%
(-1.5%)
5 Fiserv Inc ORD
FISV.O
2.9%
(-0.4%)
6 Becton Dickinson and Co ORD
BDX
2.9%
(-4.5%)
7 Danaher Corp ORD
DHR
2.7%
(-0.9%)
8 PerkinElmer Inc ORD
PKI
2.7%
(-5.5%)
9 Visa Inc ORD
V
2.5%
(+1.4%)
10 Fidelity National Information Services Inc ORD
FIS
2.4%
(+0.7%)
@Crash - Try drinking more Keurig Coffee & Dr Pepper. It might boost your return. :)

Is there any way to track / monitor an individual fund's AUM flows over time? The only data that's easily available is current-year/quarter AUM. Specifically, I'm wondering what PRGTX's AUM has looked like over the past few years. Thx in advance

FYI: Being too far ahead of your time is indistinguishable from being wrong.”
That’s what Howard Marks, chairman and co-founder of Oaktree Capital Group LLC, wrote in a memo to clients about 11 years ago. Around that same time in late 2007, banking analyst Meredith Whitney made a prescient negative call on Citigroup Inc. that exacerbated a market sell-off and, she said, prompted death threats. Perhaps emboldened by that experience, she made another headline-grabbing prediction in a December 2010 broadcast of CBS Corp.’s “60 Minutes” program: There would be “50 to 100 sizable defaults” in the U.S. municipal market in the coming year, totaling “hundreds of billions of dollars.”
Regards,
Ted
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/meredith-whitney-was-flat-out-wrong-about-municipal-bonds-41662.html?print
Meredith Whitney 60 Minutes Interview 12/19/2010:

FYI: Assets in so-called gender lens funds grew sharply this year, according to a study by the wealth management firm Veris Wealth Partners. Gender-lens investing integrates gender-based factors, either to improve returns or to promote more gender equality.
In the 12 months ended in June, assets under management in gender lens products that invest in publicly traded securities increased 85% to $2.4 billion from a year earlier, according to Veris. Gender lens assets have grown rapidly, but “this is the most growth we’ve seen in 20 years,” Patricia Farrar-Rivas, CEO of Veris Wealth Partners, said in an interview.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.barrons.com/articles/gender-lens-investing-growth-1540834302?refsec=funds

Hmm ... I started taking distributions at perhaps 63 or 64 - long before RMD was required. And that’s when the realization sank in that this isn’t some “numbers game” we’re playing anymore. It’s very real spendable cash. Withdrew very small amounts the first few years. For several years the net amount invested continued to grow.
My thinking behind the % comments I made earlier was along the lines that, while I have often chased markets down in the past - with some success - and including during the ‘07-‘09 rout, I won’t be chasing this one. My gut tells me there’s a ways to go yet. I’ve never before witnessed the kind of complacancy among investors as this time around. At 72 I don’t have a realistically long enough time horizon to tough it out and keep buying should prices continue falling.
Not doing anything drastic. Just sitting back and watching. At the end of December it will be time to do a quarterly rebalance. Perhaps equities will be on sale at that time. :)

@Hank. 2019 will be my first RMD. Just retired end of quarter 3.. At this point in life it sure looks different than in the accumulation years. Oddly enough my October paper loses equal exactly the dollar amount I will need to withdraw in 2019. When withdrawal time is way over the horizon a bad year is just a %. When three weeks equal a years worth of living $$$$$ that is something else .

To a large extent, I agree with you that 12 month periods are baked in as intuitively obvious. That said, I disagree that the 12 month period must be tied to a calendar year.
When I look at one year performance, I'm looking at the past 12 months (e.g. 10/17/17 to 10/27/18), or maybe the past 12 full months of performance (9/30/17 to 9/30/18). For one year performance I'm certainly not going to ignore what's happened between January and October of this year (i.e. I don't look at 2017 data as a meaningful representation of how a fund did over the past year).
There are even special cases for RMDs that get away from calendar years: you have a fifteen month period in which to take your first RMD (the year you turn 70.5 and up to April 1 of the next year); so you can also take two RMDs within a single calendar year. In addition, there was a calendar year in which no RMDs were required (2009).
Further, for 401(k)s where the fiscal year doesn't match the calendar year, assuming no withdrawals have been made, the value of the account used to compute the RMD is the account value at the end of the fiscal year, not the value at end of the calendar year (Dec 31). Here's a page discussing this:
https://www.irahelp.com/forum-post/21980-rmd-fiscal-year-based-profit-sharing-plan
For performance comparison purposes, funds must use standardized periods. This is to prevent cherry picking. For example, they can't advertise their performance starting the day the market hit bottom. The use of calendar quarters for comparisons is indeed arbitrary, but the very arbitrariness of these dates means that no fund is benefited or disadvantaged by the choice of dates.
Even here, the yearly periods are not calendar years; they cover twelve months through the end of the last quarter, not the last year. Yes, 12 month periods are baked in. No, figures are often not anchored on Jan 1, except YTD figures. And on Feb 25, does one really care about YTD?
How to Read a Performance Advertisement that Describes a Mutual Fund’s Total Return
https://davisfunds.com/downloads/04readingfndadv.pdf

Dunno how much it’s down. Don’t much care. But I’ll note here that percentages can be very misleading.
Example A: If your portfolio fell by 25% in one year, you would actually need to gain more than 33% in the following year to “break-even” again.
Example B: How many years in succession can your portfolio experience a 25% decline?
Think 4? Actually, in hypothetical terms, it could fall by 25% per-year every year - forever.
Are you feeling lucky?