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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • M*: The IRS Takes A Big Step Toward A Small Reduction In RMDs
    Strip away much the text and what the writer is referencing becomes clearer:
    Unlike Congress, the IRS has been working on the issue and took an important first step toward reducing RMDs for most retirees. ... Back in January, I observed that if the IRS recalculated these two-decade-old mortality tables and updated the rules, it would be modestly helpful but wouldn’t make that big a difference. ... Now that the IRS has formally proposed a change, it turns out this intuition was right. ... It seems very likely that this rule will become a final regulation sometime in 2020.
    Embedded in the column is a link internal to M*:
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/909626/could-the-government-take-the-bite-out-of-rmds
    One obvious thing to do would be to adjust the mortality assumptions that drive these RMDs, because they are going on 20 years old. In fact, President Donald Trump directed the Treasury Department to do just that, and when the government reopens, it will likely propose some adjustments. However, while life expectancy has increased, my back-of-the-envelope calculations reveal that such a change would not make much difference.
    For a robust analysis, including copious links, see Kitces:
    https://www.kitces.com/blog/irs-proposes-new-rmd-life-expectancy-tables-to-begin-in-2021/
  • Jonathan Clement's Blog: Missing The Target: TDFs
    @msf, that is what we have done in last several years. TDF forms the foundation and gradually consolidate other actively funds into TDF
  • Jeremy Siegel: The Market Is “Fairly Valued” But There Are Two Big Risks
    But barring a serious recession, a 7% return is quite reasonable over the next 3-5 years
    Wow, 7% return sounds a bit stretched.
  • M*: Funds That Went From Worst To First
    About Russel Kinnel
    Junk journalism - much ado about nothing I would suggest he use at least a five year time frame!!!
    With a bachelor's degree in economics and journalism from the University of Wisconsin-Madison under his belt, Russel Kinnel began his career at Morningstar in 1994. Fifteen years later, Russ is now Director of Mutual Fund Research and Editor of "Morningstar® FundInvestor," a monthly print newsletter for individual investors. He also oversees Morningstar's Fund Analyst Picks & Pans, writes the "Fund Spy" column for the company's investment Web site, and pens a monthly mutual-funds column for "Kiplinger's Personal Finance" magazine.
  • M*: Funds That Went From Worst To First
    For new and seasoned investors, the rule of "do your homework" still applies, eh? Read as much as you need for your understanding comfort level, and ask questions about a particular investment to be comfortable with the fit in your perception of risk tolerance and how the investment fits into a portfolio for your age and other financial circumstance. In the below case I knew there must be a typo. FAGIX had a loss of -5.79% in 2018 and is YTD about +15.4%. A -5.79% loss for 2018 became a -58% (very close number types with throwing away a decimal and rounding). Yup, we all have brain farts from time to time.
    So here's the deal. I read the linked article from the perspective of a seasoned individual investor/boomer familiar with FAGIX. I also thought about the article from the perspective of a relatively new investor attempting to understand investments. Mr. Kinnel starts the write directing the reader to only the years of 2019 and 2020 and possible investment scenarios for the funds mentioned. He writes in the EXAMPLE below of FAGIX rebounding from a 58% loss.
    FROM Russel Kinnel: As investors review their results for the year and plot a course for the future, some will no doubt be tempted to dump the holding that did worst and reallocate that money to the managers who did best. Yet a review of the greatest turnarounds this year suggests that your biggest winner in 2020 might be one of your biggest disappointments from 2019. At a minimum, be sure you aren't selling simply because the fund's style is lagging.

    EXAMPLE from the article:
    Fidelity Capital & Income (FAGIX) is yet another Notkin vehicle. In this case, it's a high-yield bond fund that rebounded from a 58% loss to a 15.2% gain. As I mentioned, the equity version has higher highs and lower lows, but the drivers are similar. Notkin has about 20% of the fund in many of those same stocks as Fidelity Leveraged Company Stock, and his aggressive style is on display with his bond selection, too.
    Good evening,
    Catch
  • What Is a Bear Market?: Definition and Survival Tips
    https://ragingbull.com/stock-market-basics/what-is-a-bear-market/
    What Is a Bear Market?: Definition and Survival Tips
    Jason Bond
    ·
    November 20, 2019 at 7:00 AM
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    A bear market is one of the most dreaded events in the world of stock trading. It can cause investor confidence to plunge to an extremely low level and make investing risky even for the most experienced traders. During a bear market, many investors rush to sell off their stocks in an attempt to avoid further losses, resulting in a devastating cycle of negativity. Inexperienced traders who don’t know what is a bear in the stock market may suffer lingering effects that last for years when they encounter one.
  • Vanguard brokerage account conversion round 3
    Seems like much ado about nothing. I have several brokerage accounts at Fido that just popped up like mushrooms in spring. Also have several accounts at Fido that have zero account balances for over 30 years. Tried to get them removed several times they can't do a remove. To each his own.
  • The Worse Value Stocks Perform, The More Rob Arnott Likes Them
    I owned, years back, two Pimco funds (PASAX & PAUAX) that Rob Arnott was the advisor. At first they performed well and then went into a period of time where they moved sideways and the began to lose. After holding for a few years when I reached a breakeven point in their decline (might have had some small losses) I cashed out and sold them both.
  • The Worse Value Stocks Perform, The More Rob Arnott Likes Them
    FYI: Value stocks have been frustrating fans for a decade, testing their patience with year after year of subpar returns. But Rob Arnott says now is exactly the wrong time to bail on them.
    In research published Wednesday, the Research Affiliates co-founder reiterates the case against quitting before the miracle. The 13-page paper, “Standing Alone Against the Crowd: Abandon Value? Now?!?” examines how the cheap-stock strategy has behaved over time, particularly after periods following severe underperformance. Arnott has stood by the strategy through years of struggle, and isn’t changing his stance now.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.bloomberg.com//news/articles/2019-11-20/the-worse-value-stocks-perform-the-more-rob-arnott-likes-them?srnd=markets-vp
    Research Affiliates Research Paper:
    https://www.researchaffiliates.com/en_us/publications/articles/766-standing-alone-against-the-crowd.html
  • Big Stocks Give S&P 500 An Edge: SPY vs. RSP
    FYI: Bigger is better in the stock market—for now.
    Shares of Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp. , Facebook Inc. and other large market-cap stocks have risen significantly this year, as investors show clear signs of continuing to favor the stock market’s biggest cohorts.
    All three stocks are up at least 52% this year, contributing heavily to the S&P 500’s nearly 25% gain since the end of December. The broad stock-market index weights its constituents by market cap, giving the biggest companies in the index more influence than smaller ones. It is outpacing for a third consecutive year its equal-weighted counterpart that avoids playing favorites based on size.
    The S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index is up 23% in 2019. It puts the same emphasis on clothing retailer Gap Inc., which is worth $6.2 billion, as Apple, which is valued at $1.2 trillion, a factor that helps investors avoid the pain caused by sharp swings in individual stocks, money managers have said.
    But that also means investors in funds that track equal-weight indexes missed out on some of the rewards from large-cap tech and communications shares’ strong run in recent years.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/big-stocks-give-s-p-500-an-edge-11574185528
    Last 12 Mo:
    SPY 18.27%
    RSP 14.95%
    3 Years:
    SPY 51.31%
    RSP 39.32%
    5 Years:
    SPY 67.33%
    RSP 53.90%
    Source Bespoke:
  • Social Security ‘Bridge’
    @msf,
    I find the study re annuities you linked of interest based on a quick read of findings / conclusions. Let’s set aside the issues of comparative advantage and individual circumstance / suitability. Those are highly individual and not too hard to sort out.
    Where I get confused is the tax implications. Converting a Roth IRA to an annuity would seem a “non-starter” since you’d be surrendering the significant tax advantages a Roth offers and continues to offer over a lifetime. Perhaps the trade-off with a pre-tax IRA is more favorable? Is it relatively easy to continue that tax deferral until payouts are disbursed or would taxes need to be paid up front on the total sum withdrawn from the IRA (and used to purchase the annuity)?
    Seems to me there was a temporary “window” in the tax code a few years ago allowing something like that. But suspect that today it probably isn’t available.
  • Jeez Sequoia
    I actually own Sequoia in my Roth Account. I bought into it when the fund reopened after so many years being closed.
    I too own stocks as well as mutual funds. Each has its own place in my portfolio.
  • Social Security ‘Bridge’
    I gather you've been watching the esurance commercials ("Let's be honest. Nobody likes dealing with insurance.") :-) See video below.
    That aside, IMHO people focus too much on cost as opposed to value received, but only from some products and services. Do people complain about how little Apple products cost to manufacture compared with the price they're paying? To keep it in the financial industry, does it bother you that banks pay you so much less in interest than they make by lending your money out? Or do you just shop for higher APYs?
    Rational life cycle consumers with no interest in leaving a bequest would always choose to annuitize 100 percent of their wealth. After all, they face a choice between a traditional investment with a market return and an annuity with a market return plus a mortality credit.
    You appear to be saying that because the insurance company is skimming some unknown ("true cost") amount, you're getting less than "a market return" with the annuity. Fair enough, but because of mortality credits, one still comes out better than making "a traditional investment with a market return." The paper uses the net value of immediate annuities, so its results do incorporate their underlying costs.
    Health insurance companies are required to spend at least 80% (85% in the case of large employer plans) on actual health care (Medical Loss Ratio). The amount they are allowed to spend on administrative costs and profits combined is limited to 20%. These figures are already audited, and I've received checks back from my insurer because it spent less than 80% for a couple of years.
  • Hot Semiconductor Stocks Power Biggest YTD Gains In The Chip Sector: (SPGP)
    The article is about individual stocks and ETFs, but there is a mutual fund in this space: Fidelity Select Semiconductors (FSELX)
    It's my largest holding (held in my IRA) and I'm smiling right now -- total return: up 55% YTD, up 19.55%/year for ten years.
    We also put FLSEX in my wife's Roth IRA when she first opened it years ago.
    It's volatile though.
    David
  • SICAV?
    Anybody know about this one? I dug SICAV up while searching the web to see if TRP might have added a precious metals fund in recent years. The linked commentary describes SICAV as a “Global Natural Resources Equity Fund.” However Lipper can’t seem to find it and M* seemed to think it was a Russian fund. I’m thinking maybe it’s only offered in some foreign countries?
    https://www.troweprice.com/financial-intermediary/is/en/funds/sicav/global-natural-resources-equity-fund.html
  • BUY - SELL - HOLD - November 2019
    Hi @hank,
    Replace the dog with a cat and you've got it! Our family cat awakes me around 3:00 am each morning and will nag me until I get up. He got in the habit of doing this because years back I'd get up around 3:00 am each morning to check the foreign markets before leaving for work. Generally, I was in bed around 8:00 pm. He's still with the old routine.
    Skeet
  • BUY - SELL - HOLD - November 2019
    Hi @Puddnhead,
    In answering your question(s). I got up early this morning to read the proof edition of the Observer. Just kidding. I'm diabetic and I was up for my early morning snack which I do most mornings around 3:00 am.
    As for VWINX ... There are many good income allocation funds. I can not own them all plus if I were to own VWINX I'd have to hold it in a wrap account, with my broker, since it is a no load fund. To keep things simple and still receive a consodilated IRS 1099 Form I have one single taxable account as many funds I own came to me through both gift and inheritance. In a good number of cases I can buy in this account at nav or reduced sales charges as there are several generations of compounding that have taken place in some of these holdings dating back to my great grandfather.
    When, I can't buy at reduced sales charges (or at nav) I simply pay the commission as there are no charges what-so-ever charged to me by the broker as long as it holds A or C share funds. And, the commisions I do pay are very small in size relative to the size of this account.
    KAUAX is one of my favorite funds. Although it is classified as a mid cap growth fund it fills all the style boxes plus it will hold cash if it can not find good opportunity. The last time I looked it was holding better than 20% in cash. Plus, it usually pays a sizeable capital gain distribution each year; and, being retired that's cash in my pocket. To me that's just as good as an income fund.
    Thanks again for taking over the thread a few years back that was started by Scott and which I ran for a few years. Now, its future lies with you. Back then it was titled "Buy, Sell or Ponder." You and Duke are doing a great job. I've been watching and it draws a good readership.
    And ... May God Bless ... you as well!
    Skeet
  • BUY - SELL - HOLD - November 2019
    Hi Skeeter,
    Good to hear from you. Your funds are always things I have to look up because I've never seen them before.....lol. Just goes to show you how different people are, and that's a good thing. On your AA funds, I'm curious.....do you own VWINX? If not, why? I also own more than I fund in this space....BTBFX. I think of it as a barbell approach.
    As for JGIAX, I have been running more quality bond funds except for PONAX. I'm not sure what's in their black box. DUGAX---have been staying away from EM due to the Blonde One's temper tantrums on trade. Do have 2 on a short buy list though: FEMKX and NGCAX. We'll see......
    As for VADAX -- why not just use the S&P? Just curious.....
    Now, for the big one, KAuAX......I forgot all about this one. Owned it in my 401 years ago before it got cut from the plan. This is one I should have....somebody may have to go in this space. I'm overloaded. BTMFX, CIPMX, FAMEX, PARMX, UMBMX. As you know, my soft spot is mid's. They are the teenagers with promise. Also I worked for a mid cap company.....great leadership and a family culture. It was great.
    God bless
    the Pudd
    p.s. And what are you doing up at 3:00am????
  • Fidelity, T. Rowe Win Preliminary OK On New Stock-Picking ETFs
    FYI: Fidelity Investments and T. Rowe Price Group Inc. TROW 0.27% were among the firms that won preliminary regulatory approval to offer a new flavor of exchange-traded fund aimed at reviving investors’ interest in stock-picking managers.
    The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Thursday gave a green light to the firms’ plans, along with those submitted by Natixis Investment Managers and Blue Tractor Group, to create ETFs that choose securities without exposing the managers’ trading tactics.
    The approvals granted Thursday were years in the making, and come months after upstart Precidian Investments secured a go-ahead for its own active ETF model.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/fidelity-t-rowe-win-preliminary-ok-on-new-stock-picking-etfs-11573775502?mod=md_mf_news
  • IBD: This TCW Mutual Fund Manager Seeks All-Weather Equities: (TGUSX)
    @Simon ah yes forgot about that.... excellent suggestion. I'll also email him. Another fund thats looking great.in risk adjusted terms0 over the last 7 years is FAMEX. David wrote up an analysis of them several.years ago. I was going to see if he could update it.
    FAMEX is a really great fund...a slightly better risk profile than my all time favorite PRDGX which I've held for years and has never disappointed. PRDGX has a much lower fee, of course. I have my IRA with T Rowe and I'm going to check if it's a NTF fund there, otherwise it's a $35 fee to buy which would probably put me off. Thanks for the mention. Both funds are Great Owls.
    If you are listening T Rowe Price - you need to catch up with the trend and eliminate your commissions on many more mutual funds!