Such articles look very good at top of bull market. Why did this not get published in 2008-2009 or 2002?

Top of the bull market? Are you kidding? We're about 1/3 the way through it. This a Wave 3 Supercycle which will last another 15 years.
A correction is coming very soon. It will be a superb buying opportunity to load up on growth funds for the coming decade. But it will be fast and furious so have your cash ready.

@MikeM - I’d call Kiplingers mostly good “financial porn“. Nothing deep or actionable. Just a light read. I actually went with Amazon’s Kiplingers offer today thinking it would be nice to have some print copies lying around the house in addition to the constant stream of news & info on the tablet. In fairness to Kips, I believe they do have some good common sense suggestions for homeowners, consumers and the like.
Agree that Barron’s really has a lot of substance in it. But after subscribing / reading it for a couple years, I’d had my fill. And it’s not cheap (unless they send you the occasional $96 “new subscriber” promotional offer).

@hank, I subscribed to Kiplinger for a longtime, maybe 30 years, and it was always pay a year or 2 or 3 upfront for the subscription and then it ended. They would send warnings that your subscription was ending and offered preferred pricing before it ended, but never carried it over without your ok. Price was always in the $10-15 per year range over that whole time. They raised it to $20 this year and I opted out. Can't blame them. Even at $20/year they still must be losing money. But, I started subscribing to Barrons this summer and decided I didn't need both. As you said, Kips isn't in the same league as Barrons. Take care and enjoy the magazine.

I own WMICX in taxable account for many years. Only in the last several years has the fund turned around and been on a tear. Expenses are high on most of their funds.
I have several of the funds listed in taxable and non-taxable accounts.

This post is about the use of Non-traditional bond oefs, as low risk alternatives in a conservative portfolio, compared to short term bond oefs. Typically short term bond oefs, are low risk options, because of their short duration, and their use of investment grade corporates, securitized assets, and cash and cash equivalents. Lower risk Non-traditional bond oefs, typically hold lower investment grade corporate and securitized assets, but will use a wider array of investing strategies, in an "unconstrained" manner, to produce "absolute return" to protect and grow principal. The M* definition of Non-traditional bond oefs is as follows:
"Morningstar Category: Nontraditional Bond":
"The Nontraditional Bond category contains funds that pursue strategies divergent in one or more ways from conventional practice in the broader bond-fund universe. Many funds in this group describe themselves as "absolute return" portfolios, which seek to avoid losses and produce returns uncorrelated with the overall bond market; they employ a variety of methods to achieve those aims. Another large subset are self-described "unconstrained" portfolios that have more flexibility to invest tactically across a wide swath of individual sectors, including high-yield and foreign debt, and typically with very large allocations. Funds in the latter group typically have broad freedom to manage interest-rate sensitivity, but attempt to tactically manage those exposures in order to minimize volatility. The category is also home to a subset of portfolios that attempt to minimize volatility by maintaining short or ultra-short duration portfolios, but explicitly court significant credit and foreign bond market risk in order to generate high returns. Funds within this category often will use credit default swaps and other fixed income derivatives to a significant level within their portfolios."
Four lower risk, non-traditional bond oefs, worthy of consideration as alternatives to short term bond oefs are as follows:
1. MWCRX/MWCIX: It has a standard deviation of 1.02, duration of 1.8, credit rating of BB, rated as Low Risk by M*, has total return of 1 and 3 yrs as 6.36/3.82. The bulk of this fund is investment grade assets, but does hold close to 20% in HY assets.
2. SEMPX/SEMMX: It has a standard deviation of .77, duration of 1.39, credit rating of B, M* risk of Low, has total return of 1 and 3 years as 5.28/5.09. The bulk of its assets are in lower grade securitized assets.
3. CUBAX/CUBIX: It has a standard deviation of 1.26, duration of .99, credit rating of BB, M* risk rating of Below Average, and its total return for 1 and 3 years as 6.25/3.33. The majority of its assets are investment grade but does hold almost 1/3 of its assets in HY, and its assets are in both corporate and securitized categories.
4. PMZAX/PMZIX: It has a standard deviation of 1.05, duration of 1.16, M* credit rating was not rated (typical of PIMCO), but M* risk is rated as Low, and its 1 year and 3 year total return is 5.36.4.06. The majority of its assets are in securitized assets.
Many will not consider anything other than investment grade short term bond oefs, but these non-traditional bond oef funds have performance tracks that are very smooth with upward trajectories, and they have held up very well in downmarket periods, and their total return is very good for a lower risk portfolio role.

An average for an entire period is not every year in that period.

No it's not. On the other hand, I can't predict when international might rise to the top, or crash to the bottom. I don't have forever to give it an equal weighting to some other categories in my IRA like small, mid, large, REITs, utilities, health, and consumer staples; in the hopes that something might change. Most of my fund managers have the freedom to fish in foreign waters if they see fit.
Commodities out-performed in some of those years too. And I might add a small stake given their depressed price. But a lot would have to change before they became a large and concentrated feature of my IRA portfolio. The same would have to happen with foreign equity.
I have had Vanguard International Growth bubbling along since 1992 in my taxable account. So if foreign goes on anything resembling a sustained surge I would do just fine.

You both were stating you were waiting 20 to 40 years for international and emerging markets to outperform. Some of those years in the last 20 to 40 you would’ve strongly outperformed in international and emerging.

You win Lewis.

An average for an entire period is not every year in that period. You both were stating you were waiting 20 to 40 years for international and emerging markets to outperform. Some of those years in the last 20 to 40 you would’ve strongly outperformed in international and emerging. The truth is the last ten years have skewed the long-term averages towards large U.S. growth stocks. That hasn’t always been the case and given the cyclicality of markets probably won’t always will be.

@WABAC Lol. Exactly how I feel. Until I sell my international holdings they will not take off. For last "20 years" waiting for "Emerging Value" stocks to take off.

So. You're not in an index? ;-)

@WABAC Lol. Exactly how I feel. Until I sell my international holdings they will not take off. For last "20 years" waiting for "Emerging Value" stocks to take off.

@dtconroe,
My comments were well meaning (as you took them) and pertained only to the topic under discussion: “Left Morningstar and came here”.

I started this thread in the MFO Premium section to extol the virtues of MFO Premium. I thought it might be useful to have such a discussion for people wondering whether to subscribe.
I've been online too many years to get upset about thread drift. It happens all the time. I have contributed my fair share to the drift in this thread. And I understand that there will always be a certain amount of navel-gazing about the forum on any forum that has stayed healthy enough to survive at an active level.
But after a long conversation about the forum, I might have to start a new thread about MFO Premium. There are at least as many people unhappy with M*'s changes to their premium accounts as there are those upset with the forums at that site.
I don't care about M*'s forums. We'll see how long I last in this one after pitchers and catchers report in a couple of weeks.
I suppose that non-subscribers that are active in the forums find a way to support this site by their donations. I am primarily here for the data. After using the free quick search tool I decided to subscribe to full access.

Yes I own 4 of their funds. I hope the link works.
Link to Barron’s article
Try this: http://webreprints.djreprints.com/57003.html

I have a small position in Stalwarts in my IRA. I keep reading (30-40 years) about international stocks taking off any day now.

Comparing VFINX to DODFX was an error, it should be VFINX vs DODGX. The link and numbers are based on DODGX. SP500 beat DODGX.
I also agree that low fees are important and if I have to select funds for the next 20 years I would only select index funds. FXAIX ER(expense ratio)=0.015 and Fidelity also introduced zero ER. This means DODGX ER is still 0.5% higher.
The only exception is VWIAX which is a great fund for retirees with ER=0.16%.
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DODGX doesn't only own "value" companies. They own growth companies too. If you can't beat the index claim your style is a bit different.
I always believed in investing in the index for US LC(The Bogle way). If I want to beat it I would use QQQ, after all, for several decades now high tech is where you find a lot of growth and where the biggest ones take so much more. I also prefer QQQ (for my explore part) because over 50% of the revenues come from abroad.
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Risk isn't volatility. That subject had been discussed for decades but Risk doesn't have an accurate definition. Volatility, Sharpe, Sortino, Martin, Ulcer, Up/Down ratio and others can help you find better funds. Sure, they are not perfect or a guarantee but you got to start somewhere. I have been using them now for about 20 years. I have used SGENX, FAIRX, OAKBX most years in 2000-2010. As I got older and prepare for my retirement I have used PIMIX and PRWCX several years since 2010.
I also found that low SD + higher performance is a quick search with a high correlation for finding great funds and great funds also have better Martin, Sharpe, Sortino. They all work together most times.
MFO also uses the above for finding better funds.
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As a retiree bond funds are more important to me. Stocks are "easy" just use an index. Bonds is where great managers can make more money with better risk attributes. You will never find bond funds like PIMIX,PIGIX and IOFIX at D&C and you definitely will not find much higher distributions which are very important to most retirees.
It also works better for covering expenses and rebalancing.
When stocks go up a retiree should use stocks for expenses when stocks go down use bonds for expenses and rebalancing should be a part of it.
My style was always to invest in my best ideas in order to try and get better results if you own 3 funds in every category chances are you won't.

I enjoyed the reads... very thorough, simple investment advice.
Keep it simple. DCA into VBINX...move on to other things...check back in 40 years.
7-rules-for-a-wealthy-retirement

The equally weighted oef that I like that is comprised of the top 100 US companies is VYCAX (Corporate Leaders 100 Fund). I have owned this fund off and on over the past ten years, or so, and have at times used it as one of my spiff (special investment) positions. One of the reasons I like this fund is that it usually has a good distribution yield. Last year its distribution yield was 9.3% which includes capital gain distributions. Although, it is an equity fund I consider it an income generating fund as well. Not only will it grow your principal through the years it will put some spiff in your poscket if you take all distributions in cash as I do.
Another equally weighted oef that I have used in the past as a spiff position is VADAX (Equally Weighted S&P 500 Fund). It has had some good distribution payouts as well; but, generally, lower than what VYCAX produces.

DoubleLine has an international Shiller/CAPE strategy that may be of interest to value investors. The tickers are DLEUX/DSEUX.
dinky linky

Maintain a core portfolio of debt instruments that focuses on global fixed income rotation while simultaneously obtaining exposure to the European Equity sector rotation strategy via The Shiller Barclays CAPE® Europe Sector Net TR USD Index. The Index aims to identify undervalued sectors based on a modified CAPE® Ratio, and then uses a momentum factor to seek to mitigate the effects of potential value traps. By using both a value indicator and a momentum indicator, the Index aims to provide more stable and improved risk adjusted returns. The CAPE® Ratio is used to assess equity markets valuations and averages ten years of reported earnings to account for earnings and market cycles. European sectors are equal-weighted notional long exposure to four European sectors that are undervalued. Each European sector is represented by a sector index. Each month, the Index ranks ten European sectors based on a modified CAPE® Ratio (a “value” factor) and a twelve-month price momentum factor (a “momentum” factor). The Index selects the five European sectors with the lowest modified CAPE® Ratio — the sectors that are the most undervalued according to the CAPE® Ratio. Only four of these five undervalued sectors, however, end up in the Index for a given month, as the sector with the worst 12-month price momentum among the five selected sectors is eliminated. The sectors are typically comprised of issuers represented in the MSCI Europe Index, which captures large and mid cap stocks across 15 developed market countries in Europe.

"As I said earlier, D&C is a good shop but I was always able to find better risk/reward funds than D&C."
That is figuratively and literally your bottom line. Though what you're looking at is volatility, not risk. SD is a measure of volatility. Sharpe ratio is a ratio of return to volatility (SD). Sortino ratio "measures the return to 'bad' volatility." Then there's the Treynor ratio, " known as the 'reward-to-volatility ratio'".
Sortino: https://www.morningstar.com/InvGlossary/sortino_ratio_definition_what_is.aspx
Treynor: https://www.morningstar.com/articles/384148/article
Sure, look at all of these measures, and more. Just realize that they're all variations on the same theme - equating volatility with risk. When cash flow is a concern, volatility does create risk. But you dismissed that.
DODFX vs VFINX? Yes, foreign investments have done worse than domestic for the past ten years. I'll guess that was a typo and that you meant to write DODGX.
Recognizing that DODGX is a value fund, value has likewise underperformed for the past ten years (link). The comparison says more about the relative performances of the market segments than the funds. Still, since you did mention mean regression, it might be helpful to look at a quote from an article praised in another thread:

Value stocks may finally do better than growth stocks thanks to the steeper yield curve. The thesis of owning growth stocks during a flattening yield curve and value stocks during steepening could prove true here.

“ There is one particular poster, John, who introduces about 4 or 5 or more new threads every day, that goes straight to the beginning of the Discussion section.”
That’s the way it’s supposed to work. The most recent new threads go to the top. Most who post here have a broadspread appreciation of many different facets of investing. We’ve never felt a need to compartmentalize. What you might be missing, however, is the “Discussions +” link which appears to the left side of the screen when you’re logged in. By clicking on that you can view just the threads which have received comments by others. (If you login using that saved link, it will take you directly there.) That’s the link I generally use - though it’s helpful occasionally to scan all of the threads, whether commented on yet or not. Also, you can easily bump to the top of the stack any thread farther down that you want to promote by making brief comment in that thread,
As you must be aware, we recently lost Ted Didesch “the Linkster” who for many years posted dozens of helpful links virtually every day. We all miss Ted. John it seems is trying to help compensate for that loss with some fresh threads every day. I’ll criticize his formatting or choice of topics occasionally (fair game), but I would never disparage what he’s attempting to do for the rest of us. The simple answer to “not liking” the topics that are posted is to post a few of your own.
We have (or have had in the past) some excellent posters here who also post on M* or other forums. No need for exclusivity that I’m aware of. Hopefully everyone can find a forum somewhere that they enjoy and benefit from. The Discussion board here is but a “side show” to all that MFO has to offer investors. David’s monthly commentaries are top notch - required reading IMHO for mutual fund investors: https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2020/01/january-1-2020/ And it doesn’t stop with David. There’s over a half dozen knowledgeable / experienced investors who contribute to that publication every month, including Ed Studzinsky, former manager of OAKBX, whom I particularly enjoy reading. The research tools available here to those who want to dig deeper into funds are of high repute as well.
Best wishes @dtconroe to you wherever you eventually decide to land.

There is only one metric that is contractual, predictable and repeatable again and again and that's fees. And this is why we have SPIVA scorecards for active funds versus passive indexes like this for the past 15 years of returns from 7/1/2004 - 6/30/2019:

I'm not saying active funds don't matter and no managers have skill. They do or I wouldn't be here. But low fees like D&C's funds have should never be discounted and are a contractual predictable edge they have over other competing active funds. Regarding comparing DODFX, an international stock fund, with VFINX, a U.S. stock fund, I'm not sure why one would do that--apples and oranges. Comparing DODFX with HFQIX, a global fund holding U.S. stocks, doesn't quite work either, although that's better than VFINX.

SD=volatility is just the first thing I look for. I pay a lot of attention to Sharpe, Sortino, Max Draw and more.
Let's look again at D&B compared to "my" funds.
I already proved that A 5 years analysis(link) shows that DODFX has over 40% more volatility while performance is equal to 3.7% while HFQIX peformance is equal to 5.1% with much lower volatility. Another great way is to look at Sharpe+Sortino and HFQIX numbers are much better.
For 15 years DODFX vs VFINX (link) shows that VFINX has better performance, SD, Sharpe, Sortino.
If you changed it to 10 years (link) The results are similar, VFINX has better SD, Sortino and Sharpe in the last 10 years. This is after 2008-09 debacle.

DODBX vs PRWCX (link) same as above. PRWCX is a much better fund.
If you change it to 10 years starting 12/2009 PRWCX still have better performance, SD, Sharpe, Sortino. This is after 2008-09 debacle.
Most investors have a choice of what to use in a taxable account. I would use US stocks indexes and munis because of their lower taxes. I use only Hy Muni funds in my taxable account.
I don't use many funds. I typically use up to 7 but mostly 5 funds. Research shows that the more funds you have the more you regress to the mean and you will make more trades and more trades lead to lower returns.
Cash flow? I generate cash flow primary from bond funds, after all, funds like PIMIX, IOFIX, PUCZX, VCFIX are paying over 4.5% which should be enough for most retirees. If you want more I would use PCI (CEF) with distr > 8% and much better risk/reward than the SP500. HY Munis funds ORNAX,NHMAX pay over 4% with Fed tax-free. I also can and do sell shares if I need to but I do it on my term when I need and based on market conditions.
As I said earlier, D&C is a good shop but I was always able to find better risk/reward funds than D&C.

@WABAC: {Are old timers happy with this daily flood burying real discussions?}
You should have been here before Ted died. Ted was like the mailman, rain, snow, or sleet wouldn't keep him away from posting. Some of us enjoyed his posts & we could find a keeper here or there. As I've said a few times before, different strokes for different folks . As I mentioned to dtconroe, book mark your discussion & you can get back to it later.
Change is usually hard, but time may heal the "hardness".
Good weekend to all, Derf

I have been visiting for the commentary for years.
I never took note of the forums until I bought a premium subscription for the data.
After a couple of days here I'ld say this place needs an ignore button to filter out the clickbait links and bot trash. But if the locals are happy with it . . .
IaEURtmm and todayaEUR