David Snowball's November Commentary Is Now Available Hi, ff!
Sorry, but I left after about 25 minutes. At that point, the focus of the talk still wasn't clear. I think, based on the teaser, that he was going to endorse investing in the EMs but that hadn't yet been mentioned. My departure was mostly occasioned by matters of style.
The one argument he made appeared to be that asset allocation is irrelevant, only expenses matter. He attempted to substantiate that with a reference to a series of "guru" portfolios that he constructed and modeled over (I believe) a quarter century. Before expenses, differences in returns were negligible (I believe he said 2%) and after imposing a uniform 1.25% expense ratio on the portfolios, the differences collapsed to nothing.
I hedge with "I believe" because this wasn't an argument being carefully laid out, it appeared to be a sort of fly-by of a talk he'd given in Las Vegas. Because I'm not a member of AAII, I don't have the ability to download conference presentations. Sorry.
I found the method suspect (why 1.25% on Buffett's rec to buy the S&P500 index or on the Permanent Portfolio, which charges 0.88?) and the conclusions unpersuasive (since they didn't, for example, take into account risk which influences an investor's willingness to hold on to portfolio). A real-world test of this claim is available by looking at the long-term performance of a family's target date funds, which differ only by asset allocation. In the case, for example, of the Wells Fargo funds, the most long-dated fund has returned 7.5% APR for 25 years and the most short-dated one has return 4.6%. On an initial investment of $10,000, that's the difference between a $30,000 portfolio and a $60,000 portfolio.
The longest-dated fund has also had a 50% max drawdown against 10% for the shortest-dated one.
I have no opinion about the Cambria ETFs themselves, since I haven't had occasion to study them closely though I believe Charles has. In broad terms, there are twelve with a 13th in registration. Eight of the 12 have trailed their Lipper peers on a total return basis since inception, four have led them. Six have trailed by more than a percentage point a year, one has led by more than a percentage point a year. Eight of 11 rated funds have MFO ratings in one of the bottom two tiers, one has a rating in the top tier and one is too new to be rated. Expenses range from 0.34 (GAA) - 1.23% (CCOR).
David
Professor Snowball's "Best Stock Funds You Never Heard Of" from Bottom Line Personal 10/1/19 publica I was interested to see David endorse Homestead Value, or more specifically the firm behind the fund. HOLVX seems to be doing fine at this point, having survived a total management changeover in 2017. At that time, Mark Ashton and his team all stepped down from that fund and also from another former good fund, HSCSX. The small company fund had shot the lights out up until the changes. Both the value fund and the SC fund declared massive distributions for two years, as is often the case when new managers take over and start selling. I would tread cautiously given the disastrous (-26%) 2018 that HSCSX posted under new managers Prabha Carpenter and James Polk, as they are the two running the value fund also. I know Homestead because I used to own HSCSX and now own Homestead Growth, a fine find that is managed by T. Rowe Price.
Professor Snowball's "Best Stock Funds You Never Heard Of" from Bottom Line Personal 10/1/19 publica Although I have never owned LEXCX I have owned, in the past, a fund which is the modern day version of LEXCX. It is IACLX (Corporate Leaders 100). It holds and equally weights the top S&P 100 companies and has a value approach as it rebalances quarterly. And, over the past five years IACLX has out performed LEXCX.
In reducing the number of funds that I owned, several years back, I discarded IACLX. However, I did keep it in my son's (age 33) Roth account which I have oversight over. Although it has not been one of his top producers it is one of his steady Eddie equity funds and carries three stars from M*. It's ten year average total return is better than ten percent which, in gereral and on average, are what stocks are suppose to do.
How Retirees Can Withdraw More Than 4 Percent Per Year Agree with
@MikeM (assuming he means
“Better safe than sorry” here).
You don’t know until it’s
you out of your life’s work with ongoing expenses and at the mercy of what we collectively term
“the markets”. Guess wrong and you might find yourself out looking for a job on your 95th birthday.
I’’m atypical in that I have a DB pension. Wish everybody did. So with that I went 6-7
years into retirement without having to touch the IRA. If you can do that, it’s a great way to build up that nest egg. But 4% yearly? I’ve been able to take a bit more than that over the past 10-12
years and not really “ding” the balance. In fact it’s grown. But I’ve been lucky. Most
years I pull 5-7% out. But a couple
years, for new car purchases, it’s been a bit higher than 7%.
I doubt the linked OP article even addresses the
traditional vs
Roth issue. If you’re pulling $$ from a Roth IRA, it’s quite likely that $10 withdrawn from that Roth will buy you as much as $12-$15 pulled from a traditional IRA would (after taxes are accounted for). So, with a Roth, you need to pull out a significantly smaller percentage to maintain the same lifestyle.
The markets are a real wild card. I’d be loath to try and draw too many conclusions from the past 10 or even 20
years. That’s too short of time. History has a much longer memory. Final comment - It seems as if the bond market is hooked on “downers” today while the equity markets are doing steroids. One wonders how long that dichotomy can persist.
The Closing Bell: U.S. Stocks Climb On Strong Jobs Report: S&P 500 And Nasdaq Close At Record Highs A lot of optimism in this collection of reports. The tricky question is, is this one of those Christmas rally years? I'm thinking so, but I tend to be wrong 50% of the time, same as a flip of the coin. I may play the game this year.
morningstar is falling apart "They know best." And they don't care how long it takes to fix things.
They're taking features from Premium and making them part of more expensive institutional packages, IIRC. And the site redesign is catering toward (allegedly) a younger crowd ... their badge-worthy forum, which I quit after many
years this summer, certainly is - but not getting much traction.
This sounds like a rhetorical question, but it's not. I would truly like to know:
How can the people running the Morningstar website be so stupid? They can read. They have had plenty of honest feedback from their users. What are they doing? They could easily fix it. What is going on?
Frackers scrap idled equipment amid shale drilling downturn Hi Catch,
Thanks for the info. Since I'm slowly going into energy, this post is of importance. Have heard from several reads they expect oil to rise in 2 to 3 years.....due to lack of investment by companies because of price. And we all know how oil prices fluctuate over time. Thanks, bro.
God bless
the Pudd
p.s.
A few years back when oil crashed and fracking went bust for a while, there was a cat dealer whose place was overrun with equipment for months because of fracking from upstate PA. Have started to see it again.
......also......
Ted, go to bed!
Frackers scrap idled equipment amid shale drilling downturn This topic could affect some of your holdings that are more focused in this sector.
Frackers scrap field equipmentReal estate prices and development went wacko several
years ago when the Bakken fields were put into production. I've not checked prices for
years, but those first in and first out made some serious cash. This area may not be affected by fracking downturn. Oklahoma and Texas, perhaps more so. Williston, ND prices still look pricey to me.
Williston ND real estate Zillow
The Breakfast Briefing: Stocks Wobble After Fed Signals Pause In Further Rate Cuts Thanks Ted. The third British general election in four years (!!!) is now underway. I think the Conservatives will win again, but they may have to form an alliance with Nigel Farage's Brexit Party to gain overall control and finally push through Brexit. The Labour Party's policies of mass renationalization and tax increases for the middle classes are probably unpalitable to a great many voters.
Following the Fed cut yesterday a couple of my low duration bond funds dropped a tick or two, and a couple rose a tick (including DLSNX). My ultrashort funds (TRBUX, SEMRX) were on best behavior as always and slept through it all.
BUY - SELL - HOLD October Retirement accounts are prevented from buying or exchanging into tax-free mutual funds through the electronic channels.
Wow, that seems very strange to me that a fund company would decide what is acceptable in your portfolio. I don't believe Schwab does that. I've owned a municipal bond ETF for the last couple
years, PZA, in my IRA with pretty good results in total return and a nice 4.7% yield. I could be fooling myself but I think of it as lower risk than say corporate bonds.
morningstar is falling apart
I was a paid M* user for years but quit 2 years ago given the neverending site woes, bad data, redesign, etc.
I've found much of the data points I need for stock or fund analysis are on SeekingAlpha, for free, and in a much more usable format. And of course, MFO Premium is a rock-solid resource, too!