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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Tariffs
    I've said this for years but what we're witnessing is the last gasp efforts of old white men to remain in power. They'll be able to do it for a while (another 5-10 years) with gerrymandering, voter suppression etc... but eventually they will lose power. They can't handle the browning of America. It's just a matter of time.
  • Tariffs
    Indeed this up and down TACO "negotiating position" is forcing the rest of the world to realize that the US is no longer a trustworthy trading or defense partner. Even with DJT out of office, why would you sign a treaty or agreement, knowing with the next election it will blow up, depending on who wins. While DJT is the originator, the GOP in Congress is really responsible, as they have abdicated their role in government and in setting tariffs, for short term political benefits.
    The Repugnant Party, as has repeatedly been noted, stopped being a political Party years ago. It is no longer operating in good faith with regard to the workings of government and the separation of powers. They are playing cutthroat games with no regard to decorum, procedure or ethics. A current and pressing case in point is the gerrymandering in Texas. Demublicans were forced to flee the State in order to break quorum. Seems to me that's been done before?
    Yes, treaties and agreements with foreign countries are now very problematical. Repugnants have shown, especially via the Orange Criminal Felon, that everything and anything is merely temporary; there is no honoring of previous arrangements. The prestige and influence of the USA on the world stage is horribly tarnished. And foreign entities can see that about half the country votes Red/repugnant. Election results will be a toss-up, unless there is a sea change, or we finally grow a brain and work around the infernal Electoral College.
  • Government Statistics: Trump fires labor statistics chief after weaker than expected jobs report
    He would probably like to do something about the Institute For Supply Management after their latest report. Per Reuters:
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. manufacturing contracted for a fifth straight month in July and factory employment dropped to the lowest level in five years amid tariffs that have raised prices of imported raw materials.
  • Portfolio Software Reviewed
    "Amazing what a 10.5% to 12.3% does over 30 years"
    Minor variations in annualized returns can lead to significant differences
    in terminal value when compounded over many years!
    Vanguard Health Care had a 16.4% annualized return during Ed Owens'
    long tenure (05/23/1984 - 12/31/2012) compared to the S&P 500 index's 10.7% return.
    The fund's returns during Jean Hynes' tenure (ending Jan. 2025) paled in comparison.
  • Portfolio Software Reviewed
    Using testfolio, not sure how accurate it is with weekly, daily deposits because it comes back too fast.
    Amazing what a 10.5% to 12.3% does over 30 years
    With $10,000 initial investment.
    S&P 500 $197,026.06 10.45%
    VGHCX $326,539.82 12.32%
  • Portfolio Software Reviewed
    @gman57
    I share your concern about login credentials. this is a potential issue with all "aggregators" most of which (Fidelity retrieving your Schwab accounts etc) in the past used Yodlee.
    Schwab has enhanced it's security for Quicken and other aggregators, and when I have asked I have been told these allow data scrapping only and not transactions. So the hack would have to be of the aggregator to access your pw.
    Given the option, I do not store my credentials with Quicken, but copy and past them in when I update.
    A couple of times a year I have searched for instances of fraud caused by hacking into Quicken or Yodlee and have never found any reports.
    This topic was explored in depth a couple of years ago here.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/60398/are-the-risks-of-financial-account-aggregation-really-worth-it/p2
  • Tariffs
    it's hard to read the full rules of these agreements written on cheap paper napkins with cheap ink pens.
    That would be following a tradition of simplistic economic writings on cheap paper napkins. The Laffer curve for example. Sure, the Smithsonian claims to have the "original" cloth napkin, but accounts (including from Laffer) say that it was a paper cocktail napkin from a bar.
    Paper vs. cloth aside, one can't read rules of these trade agreements because they don't exist in writings that run just a few pages.
    There are also some tariff rates still to be negotiated. How significant are these “unknowns” and how much could they alter the overall impact of the trade deal?
    The nature of doing trade “deals” with Trump is that these are not traditional free trade “agreements”—which take years to negotiate in painstaking detail—but commitments (often unwritten or based on a simple handshake) that must be worked out further later or can be revisited in the future. It also often happens that the two sides have fundamentally different interpretations of what has been agreed to.
    https://www.cfr.org/article/us-eu-trade-deal-avoids-tariff-war-deepens-european-dependence
  • Portfolio Software Reviewed

    I still find Quicken to be the most useful PM. It easily and seamlessly aggregates my data from multiple accounts as often as I click "update".
    I use and have used Quicken for a long time but offline. Not happy they went to a subscription basis but still like it. You have no concerns about security letting a 3rd party login to all your financial accounts. I may get there someday but not yet. It took me years and years to stop getting store and gas receipts. Now, I only get them for large purchases.
    My brother used to use I think Mint? for the same thing, giving it access to all his accounts.
    Thousand dollar question: Why do we not see typos until after we post? Anyone?
  • Might Tariffs Get “Overturned”?
    Thanks for the additional info, @Bee. The issue could be in the courts for years, apparently.
  • Portfolio Software Reviewed
    PORTFOLIO ANALYTICS SOFTWARE (Part I)
    https://indoustribune.com/business/finance/portfolio-analytics-software-2025/
    If you have multiple investment accounts, it becomes difficult to monitor all those portfolios. There are several portfolio analytics software that handle uploaded, stored or linked portfolios, but don't have any transactional capabilities. The analytics may include total-returns (TRs), rolling-returns, inflation-adjustments, portfolio value charts, drawdowns, U/D CR, benchmarking, SWRs/PWRs, MPT statistics (alpha, beta, correlation, standard deviation, Sharpe Ratio, etc), etc.
    MFO Premium (MFOP)
    It has great analytics at low-cost that is partially tax deductible. Partial site updates are daily, weekly, biweekly or monthly. It can handle mutual funds/OEFs, ETFs, CEFs & insurance VAs (internal tickers, selected Q-tickers), but not stocks. There is charting for portfolio components but not for portfolio values. Monthly return data are used for analytics. There are regular enhancements. MFOP runs are not linkable. MFO = Mutual Fund Observer; it's a 501c3 organization.
    Portfolio Visualizer (PV)
    Its free version is now limited to 10-year lookback from the date of the PV run, so that practically means 9 recent full years; the subscription version has medium-high costs. The PV runs can be longer with older start & end dates. It can handle mutual funds/OEFs, ETFs, CEFs & stocks. Portfolio can be manually entered or uploaded from Excel or csv files. An interesting feature is to include cash additions or withdrawals as percentages or that are uniform (with or without inflation-adjustments; default balances are nominal, but inflation-adjustment balances are also available). Monthly return data are used for analytics. PV runs are linkable.
    TestFol
    It's relatively new & rapidly evolving. It has a free version only & maybe a good substitute for PV as it doesn't have timeframe limitations. It can handle mutual funds/OEFs, ETFs, CEFs, stocks, & some VAs with Q-tickers. Login isn't offered, but it saves recent portfolios using browsers' local storage features. Cash additions/ withdrawals are also available. Unfortunately, the inflation-adjustment is applied to both the additions/ withdrawals (good) & final balances (not good), so the results won't match with the default balance values in PV. A unique feature is that it uses daily return data, so its MPT statistics won't match those from sites using monthly return data. Sometimes, the daily return data jumps around the ex-div dates & that may introduce small errors in MPT stats. Several rolling-stats are also available (TRs, SDs, Sharpe Ratios, etc). TestFol runs are linkable.
    COMPREHENSIVE PORTFOLIO SOFTWARE (Part II)
    https://indoustribune.com/business/finance/comprehensive-portfolio-software-morningstar-stock-rover/
    These have both transactional & analytics capabilities. There are 2 ways that a portfolio software can get transactional information for buys & sells, & distribution reinvestments. The first way is the manual entry capability that used to be more common. The second way that is more popular now is with link to the brokerage or fund family. Investors may be concerned about security risks of account linking; moreover, evaluating test portfolios isn't possible.
    Morningstar Portfolio
    This is a rapidly evolving new product at a low-cost; try multiyear subscription discount to lower costs. It started with very limited manual capabilities, but those are getting better. The portfolio analytics remain weak. The monthly return data are used for analytics. It will eventually replace the old Morningstar Legacy Portfolio (counted as +) that has great manual capabilities including auto-reinvestments (with just a click). Both versions are available for now & all changes made in Morningstar Legacy Portfolios are reflected in Morningstar Portfolio, but not always so for the reverse.
    Stock Rover (SR)
    It has a free version, but for portfolio analytics, SR-Premium with low-cost is needed. While feature rich, it isn't very user-friendly & has a steep learning-curve. The manual mode requires manual reinvestments of distributions & that may become a monthly time-consuming chore, but if not done regularly, the portfolio data will drift from true values. A unique feature is that it uses daily return data, so its MPT statistics won't be comparable to those from sites using monthly return data.
    The list of portfolio software featured in Part I & II isn't comprehensive. It provides insights into 5+ portfolio software with which the author has direct familiarity - 3 for Analytics (see 7/18/25 issue) & 2+ Comprehensive. Some brokers also have good portfolio capabilities, for example, Fidelity Full View. Experienced DIY investors may develop their own portfolio software using Excel or Google Sheets. Excluded from consideration here were pure charting & family budgeting software.
  • Wall $treet Week with Louis Rukeyser
    I grew up watching W$W, my parents watched it every Friday night on PBS. The grey haired Louis Rukeyser still looks like George Washington. :)
    That grey-haired character above is actually a fake Lou in an SNL video. A spoof of WSW. One of our own makes an appearance near the end. :)
    @PopTart- You were fortunate to watch with your parents. Mine never saved or invested. Big family with 6 kids. We lived pretty much payday to payday. I doubt the show would have meant much to them. My first introduction to investing was through Lou’s program. Out of college less than 2 years when the show first aired. Never thought about it before, but the advent of the show pretty much coincided with the disproportionally large “baby boom” generation entering the work force …
  • Federal Reserve Meeting Decision
    I was shocked by a Fox reporter who asked
    “Does the wait and see on inflation give cover for companies to raise prices? Powell said in 2018 washer tariffs but no dryer tariffs, but companies raised prices on both. Companies walk the street together, alluding to fact that companies follow each, especially when raising prices.
    Why would a Fox reporter question virtue of corporations, did he think he was working for Mother Jones? I remember on the WSJ comments last few years on stories about companies raising prices above input costs and 95% of comments stated that is was impossible for companies to be greedy because then other companies would undercut them. They also made up fantasy alleging that if companies were being greedy during inflationary times, why aren’t they greedy all the time.
  • Larry Swedroe Insights
    Looking into the rear-view mirror, it's abundantly clear that SPY and QQQ
    have outperformed many other investments over the last 15 years or so.
    It would be really commendable if the same "geniuses" who discovered these facts could leverage
    their "vast expertise" to accurately predict which investments will outperform during the next 10 or 15 years!
    I'm not holding my breath waiting for their definitive predictions...
  • Federal Reserve Meeting Decision
    The Fed Whisperer analyzes the Federal Reserve's decision today.
    “Economic data released earlier Wednesday offered mixed signals, explaining the Fed’s caution.
    While second-quarter GDP growth topped expectations at 3%, a measure of private business
    and consumer demand continued decelerating to 1.2% from 1.9% in the previous quarter
    and 2.9% late last year.”

    “'Jay is navigating so many things right now, but one thing that he says that is both true and underappreciated
    by his critics is that the tariffs are showing up in certain parts of the price index,' said Richard Clarida,
    a Trump appointee who served as Powell’s second in command for more than three years beginning in 2018.”

    "Powell and his colleagues are studying how tariffs filter through inflation data in the midst of anxiety
    that higher goods prices will keep inflation above the Fed’s 2% goal for a fifth year.
    Inflation has declined notably from 2021-23 highs without the recession many economists had predicted,
    but officials are cautious about declaring victory and possibly reigniting price pressures
    by cutting rates prematurely.”

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/fed-holds-rates-steady-but-two-officials-back-a-cut/ar-AA1JB0uE
  • Wall $treet Week with Louis Rukeyser
    Wonder if he was related to Bill Bonds?
    One criticism of the show was that it gave certain “recommended” stocks a temporary boost in value, with the stocks falling-off weeks later. So the naive who bought immediately after the show got burned. It was also said some looked at who the guests would be far ahead of the show and “front-ran” them knowing what they were likely to recommend - then selling for a quick profit after the show.
    Lou did have Dick Strong on once and you could tell Lou didn’t think highly of him - but it was hard to ignore the rapid rise of his Wisconsin based firm in the years before all hell broke loose.
  • Larry Swedroe Insights
    I’m not going to listen, but I’ll say this:
    Swedroe makes some good generic points — the same ones (B&B) Bogle and Buffett made decades ago… and then he doesn’t. I also read his articles for years.
    At the end of the day, Swedroe is a financial adviser — he has to sell something. After all, everyone needs to make a living.
    For years, he heavily promoted value and small-cap strategies.
    But the reality? SPY and QQQ have outperformed those approaches for the past 15 years.
    My go-to stock tip for decades has been simple:
    If US LC stocks are doing well, ignore everything else.
    If it’s not, then start diversifying — look at value, small caps, and international, which is exactly what I did in 2000-2010.
    BTW, is the S&P 500 truly diversified?
    Buffett and Bogle certainly thought so — and many forget that it includes companies with operations all around the world.
  • Wall $treet Week with Louis Rukeyser
    @Observant1, thank much.
    From the best that I can tell, Alan Bond, a frequent guest on Wall Street Week, was last on the show for episode number 2922 broadcasted on 11-26-1999.
    "On December 16, 1999, the Securities and Exchange Commission sued New York pension fund manager Alan B. Bond for fraudulently receiving over $6.9 million in kickbacks from brokerage firms..."
    https://www.sec.gov/enforcement-litigation/litigation-releases/lr-16394
    "On June 10, 2002, former money manager Alan Bond (Bond) was convicted of six counts of federal criminal investment adviser fraud and wire fraud. Bond's conviction related to a "cherry picking" scheme in which Bond illegally allocated profitable trades to his own personal account and allocated the vast majority of unprofitable trades into client accounts that he managed through his money management firm, Albriond Capital Management, LLC (Albriond)"
    https://www.sec.gov/enforcement-litigation/litigation-releases/lr-17560
    "On February 11, 2003, United States District Court Judge Leonard Sand sentenced investment adviser Alan Brian Bond (Bond) to a prison term of 12 years, 7 months and ordered him to pay $6.6 million in restitution, with possible additional restitution, for his role in both a kickback scheme and a trade allocation or "cherry picking" scheme..."
    https://www.sec.gov/enforcement-litigation/litigation-releases/lr-18018
  • Liz Ann Sonders - What is Really Driving Market Returns
    Liz Ann Sonders
    * 02/2019: Market may be ignoring risks of an earnings slowdown (https://www.kbzk.com/cnn-business-consumer/2019/02/13/market-may-be-ignoring-risks-of-an-earnings-slowdown/)
    Reality: the SP500 made 31.2%
    =============
    06/2020: In her 2020 Mid-Year Outlook, Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab offers a word of caution for the short-term but strikes an optimistic tone for long-term economic progress.
    It is safe to expect elevated volatility through the remainder of the year as economic numbers remain depressed while the newly kickstarted economy may sputter with a second wave of coronavirus outbreak.
    However, this pessimism is balanced with potential economic surprises and continued advances in treatments and vaccines for the virus. (link).
    Reality: The SP500 made 24% during 06-12 of 2020.
    =================
    03/2022 (link)
    Actions in stocks: The actions: Particularly during times of uncertainty, diversification across—and within—asset classes and sectors is of paramount importance. Given the expectation of continued bouts of volatility, especially at the sector level, resist the temptation to try to predict sector leadership and instead focus on shoring up your stock portfolio’s quality characteristics.
    Actions in bonds: As central banks adopt tighter policies and yields move higher, consider looking for potential opportunities to add to your intermediate- and long-term bond holdings.
    In particular, a bond ladder—in which you buy bonds with staggered maturities and reinvest the proceeds in new bonds as each one comes due—can be an effective way to increase the yields in your portfolio over time.
    Reality: She missed it all. Bonds had one of the worst year in decades and stocks were in bear market.
    =================
    12/2022 (https://www.businessinsider.com/charles-schwab-liz-ann-sonders-invest-markets-stocks-recession-book-2022-12)
    Reality: Her narratives were pretty weak. You didn't have to do anything special. The SP500 made 26.2% in 2023.
    ===================
    12/2023: The stock market probably has an okay year if we get more stability and less uncertainty with regard to monetary policy and, in turn, inflation and interest rates.
    (link).
    Reality: The SP500 made more than OK, 24.9%
    ===================
    I can summarize her narrative over the past several years like this:
    Valuations are high
    Markets carry risk
    Stick with good companies
    I have no idea what the market will do, but it’ll be fine
    (After all, since 1980, the S&P 500 has been positive about 80% of the time.)
    I'm a Chief Investment Strategist, but since I’m an economist, I’ll mostly focus on the economy — even though it doesn’t have a strong correlation to how stocks or asset categories perform over the next 3, 6, or 9 months… which is exactly what most investors care about..
  • Wall $treet Week with Louis Rukeyser
    Thanks! Always a “must watch.” For a year or two (mid-90s) it was broadcast about an hour apart by 2 different PBS stations. I usually watched it twice. I imagine you could learn just as much today about investing from these old shows as when they first aired.
    In the mid 90s Lou celebrated 25 years on the air. A real treat with his lovely daughters there with him and 3 really big names in finance. Henry Kaufman was one. John Templeton another. The 3rd escapes me at the moment, as it’s been a while. Possibly Lynch?
  • Liz Ann Sonders - What is Really Driving Market Returns
    Ms. Sonders has been in the investment business for a long time—almost 40 years!
    She was a regular panelist on Wall $treet Week with Louis Rukeyser.