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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • How to Deal With Head-Spinning Market Swings
    Ignore the swings if you're a longterm investor. Volatility is a natural part of the markets and is not necessarily something to be feared. Going nuts at every wiggle, even a short-term violent one, is a recipe for disaster. If anything, embrace the volatility to accumulate shares that go 'on sale' or get so overpriced you can lock in more profits and reposition things if you like.
    Folks freaking out about every market spike/drop are probably the same folks who expect to get a participation ribbon just for being in the market and expect the very fact of that participation to result in immediate gains. IMO the past 12 years artificially-induced and sustained 'bull' market conditioned folks that there is only one direction that markets can ever go, which is disturbing.
    Speaking of Seykota, don't forget his 'Whipsaw Song' -- which I still play now and then. :)
    rforno in Fund Discussions
  • How to Deal With Head-Spinning Market Swings
    Hi @Simon, @johnN and others:
    How to Deal With Head-Spinning Market Swings ... In short words ... Play the Swing
    Big money has the ability to create volatility in the markets though their program trading systems. With this, the markets get pushed around more than they perhaps use to. And, this leaves the little investor wondering, at times, how to govern. Generally, when in doubt, they sell. For every sell that takes place there has to be a buy. And, again generally, this is big money that is doing the buying when the little guy is selling. When the big investor is selling generally the little investor is buying towards the top. Through the years I've seen this process repeat itself many times.
    For me, a small retail investor, I now generally do some buying during the dips and sell the rips. Some call this playing the swing. I call this activity a special investment position or a spiff. I've been doing spiff activity for the past twenty years, or so, with good success. Please note that my spiff positions are a part of my overall investment plan and are not designed to be my complete investment plan.
    Old_Skeet's market barometer helps me govern my spiff activity which I have been posting on the MFO board for the past couple of years, or so. Here is a link to my most recent post.
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/52513/old-skeet-s-market-barometer-report-august-september-october-update
    For those that would like to get on board with some proven trading strategies (The Essentials) the link below might just be of good interest.
    http://www.seykota.com/tt/
    You might also enjoy listening to the Tribe's theme song. Just click on the link below.
    http://www.seykota.com/tribe/essentials/index.htm
    I'm a card carrying member.
    And, so it goes.
    Old_Skeet
    Trailing comment: The graph in the link below reflects the S&P 500 Index's range of movement over the past rolling year. Notice, the trend for the most part has been down to flat with a recent gain resulting of about a 3% to 4% overall return for the time period. By playing the swing, at times, I was able to increase my returns over just being invested in a long only strategy.
    https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=ES
    If you would like to view the volatility spikes the below link graphs the VIX for the past rolling year.
    https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=VX&p=d1
    Old_Skeet in Fund Discussions
  • How to Deal With Head-Spinning Market Swings
    3021 to 2822 (a 6% range) is hardly "head-spinning".
    Wild swings...do me a favor.
    2008 was genuinely "head-spinning", I'm sure all will agree. There is absolutely no comparison to today.
    Honestly, I am becoming increasingly fed up of all the hyperbole that is making the rounds just to sell copy. We have barely begun the biggest bull market in history yet the snowflakes are terribly offended over minor price adjustments in the market. By all means, sell if you want to and head for the mountains. The big boys on Wall Street will be only too happy to part you from your money. And so will I, because I am more bullish today than ten years ago.
    Simon in Fund Discussions
  • Where To Invest $10,000 Right Now
    Just my two cents worth, but I would put all $10,000 into stocks because I believe this secular bull market has years and years left to run. The market has been base-building since August in preparation for much higher levels to come. A good, low cost index tracker mutual fund or ETF such as VOO or VUG would be ideal. Yes, earnings are due to be on the soft side this quarter, but that doesn't indicate in any way the onset of a recession. Don't believe what you read online or in the press. Outlets such as Marketwatch and CNBC sell fear. The Fed will lower rates at least one more time this year, and coupled with what is effectively QE4 with $60bn of monthly treasury purchases starting tomorrow, this will only juice all asset prices going forward.
    Simon in Fund Discussions
  • Fisher Investments Launches Diversity Task Force
    LOL - Those are great posts / discussions about Fisher @LewisBraham linked.
    I recall 20 or more years ago a good friend commented to me he had been receiving “invitations” in the mail to invest with Fisher. At the time we both deemed it something of a compliment to have reached the point where Fisher was willing to consider you as a potential client.
    Fortunately, the friend didn’t invest with him. And I didn’t have enough $$ back than to have made an an attractive “catch”. (sucker variety.)
    -
    Edit / Added:
    “People who are born wealthy are supposed to behave better. In fact, that’s where the whole concept of the refined and gracious gentleman in Europe comes from.”
    That’s an interesting concept and very much at the heart of F. Scott Fitzgerald’s The Great Gatsby. Geographically, the “born rich” and “newly rich” are situated opposite one another on opposing points of land jutting into Long Island Sound. The “born rich” of East Egg, exemplified by the Buchanans, live a more sedate refined life style, their days occupied by afternoon tea, polo, horse back riding, and discrete “affairs” cloaked in secrecy. From Daisy Buchanan: “Sophisticated. God I’m sophisticated!” Across the bay on West Egg stands Gatsby’s newly acquired palace of extravagance and decadence with its drunken nightly celebrations of debauchery and indifference to the norms of civilized society.
    I think there’s a shred of truth to Fitzgerald’s observation that those born rich tend to be more “sophisticated” (and less crude) than those who have more recently fallen into wealth. I haven’t missed that Lewis’ point pertains more to European tradition. Just musing here that some of that viewpoint is reflected (perhaps in distorted fashion) by an American writer.
    hank in Fund Discussions
  • Portfolio changes for retirement
    The combo of AMRMX, VIGRX, OARIX and PTTRX are my current choices. Monthly contributions have been going into the GIC for a few years now. OARIX is showing sign of life of late. Not been kind to me the last few years but I didn't have another option.
    Art in Fund Discussions
  • Where To Invest $10,000 Right Now
    Twitter is useful for the lay readers of many researchers since there is almost always elaborated, non-laconic, material to read elsewhere.
    This, about gov debts and income inequality, looks pertinent, brought to my attention by a family member:
    https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-01-2014-0015/full/html
    (Saez and others are clear about other, non-gov debt: 'This explosion in debt means effectively that the bottom 90% has been saving 0% of their income over the last 30 years.'
    So ... in what direction is your own mind made up? What, again, do you yourself advocate?
    davidrmoran davidrmoran in Fund Discussions
  • SEMPX
    TANSTAFFL. There's going to be a tradeoff between risk and return, and among different types of risk.
    RPHYX takes on credit risk (junk bond fund), but tries to mitigate it by buying bonds with special situations (e.g. "redeemed debt" bonds - bonds that have already been called and will be redeemed shortly).
    SEMPX invests in MBSs, which all else being equal tend to yield a bit more in exchange for negative convexity risk. Even though their effective durations appear short (based on expected time until borrowers repay their loans), as interest rates drop this expected time expands (they won't be refinancing or prepaying). That's negative convexity - duration extends, prices may drop as vanilla bond prices are rising. I'm beginning to rethink this risk in a low interest rate environment, because borrowers don't refinance for small drops in rates and there's no room left for big drops.
    FPNIX remains one of my favorite funds that I have never invested in. It uses a variety of derivatives in a defensive manner to reduce risk based on market conditions. It has never had a down year in its over 30 years. It's unconventional in the breadth of its investments and the techniques it uses, keeping in mind that these are used to mitigate risk, not to boost returns while keeping risk constant.
    Traditional ultrashort bond funds generally trade off volatility for yield. No magic - they eek out a little more yield than MMAs (banks) with a little more volatility, or up the yield a tad more with a bit more volatility.
    There's nothing inherently good or bad about any of these approaches. Pick your poison, or diversify among them so that you'll have some (but not all) cash available at any time depending on which approach to risk mitigation is working at the moment. Also consider muni funds if you're in the 22% or higher bracket as another form of diversification.
    msf in Fund Discussions
  • Portfolio changes for retirement
    Hi @Art, (FWIW) I'd say you are conservatively invested at about 70% (cash & bonds) /30% (equity) more so than me being at about 60% (cash & bonds) /40% (equity). With this, you know your risk tolerance better than me. I'd would stay invested along the lines of the long term asset allocation you plan to use going forward in retirement. I'm also thinking the asset allocation is more important, in the near term, over fund selection since you will be reconfiguring your portfolio in six months or so. For me, though, I'd add some small/mid caps along with some emerging markets and follow a global mix of about 70% domestic and 30% foreign. I'm thinking there is presently better value to be had in foreign equity over domestic; but, I would not venture to far towards foreign.
    However, some say, you really don't need foreign holdings since about 40% of the revenue found in the S&P 500 Index now comes form abroad. Perhaps so.
    I sincerely wish you the very best in the years ahead.
    Skeet
    Old_Skeet in Fund Discussions
  • Where To Invest $10,000 Right Now
    Vanguard Prime Money Market. At least while you are thinking about it. I'm so glad I did that while I was thinking about it. I'm still thinking.
    I thought about this 10 times in the last 3 years. Every time my answer was VMMXX. Looking at my return, I'm quite happy.
    VintageFreak VintageFreak in Fund Discussions
  • Billionaire Ken Fisher Blasted Online After Offensive Comments At Closed-Door Fireside Chat
    I have a friend who worked for Fisher Investments in San Mateo, CA. My friend was with Fisher only about 2 years and quit to go elsewhere. My friend said that Ken Fisher is a nutjob and Fisher Investments was "the cult of Ken Fisher" with everyone worshipping Ken Fisher.
    Sound familiar?
    PopTart PopTart in Fund Discussions
  • Josh Brown: How I invest My Own Money

    Josh is awesome - followed him and Barry for years. IMO their firm is doing things right and if I ever needed to pick up RIAs to manage money I'd probably go with them.
    This statement says a great deal, in a positive way:
    " ...My 401(k) is invested in the exact same asset allocation model as we use for our clients...."
    rforno in Fund Discussions
  • ORNAX - load at Fidelity but waived at Merrill Edge
    A bit lower octane option within the family is OPTAX. A few less percentage in Puerto Rican bonds, a few years lower duration, lower Beta, lower Alpha, and lower Standard Deviation. Accordingly, the 3-month, YTD, 1-year, and 3-year total return for OPTAX trails ORNAX.
    Pick your medicine.
    Mona
    Mona in Fund Discussions
  • Chuck Jaffe's Money Life Show: Guest: Bernie Horn, Manager, Polaris Global Value Fund: (PGVFX)
    Value-oriented foreign funds have been lagging for a number of years and Bernie Horn's funds are no exception. I follow and watch, and have difficult to find solid compelling reasons to invest with him (and his team).
    Sven in Fund Discussions
  • Josh Brown: How I invest My Own Money
    FYI: People ask me all the time about how I invest my personal money. I don’t think I’ve ever written about this before, in more than ten years of blogging!
    Very simply put, I’m a mixture of active and passive, a mixture of mutual funds, individual securities and ETFs, a mixture of public and private assets. What is consistent is that almost everything I do is with a long-term bias. I don’t day trade or swing trade, because I’m bad at it and I feel as though those activities are a full-time commitment. I don’t want to commit to any investing style that requires my attention all day long because I’m building and running a company. My priority is my firm, my clients and my employees. So when I invest in something, I usually intend to stay invested.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://thereformedbroker.com/2019/10/10/how-i-invest-my-own-money-2/
    Ted Ted in Fund Discussions
  • We are in a new cycle of low interest rates so get used to it
    Hi @Junkster
    I remain in the "this time is still different" crowd.
    Couple of items with this.
    Watching the interest rate calls from 2011 or there about from the big houses. They all had and still have a hell of a time getting used to things these days.
    Aside from all of the trade and political turmoil; I have kept trying to weigh big house thoughts and actions on market directions.
    There are many possibilities, of course; but I try to place these next pieces together for today (meaning the last 8 years to date). Not in any order:
    1. machine trading
    2. large houses, and their traders and technicians not thinking this time is different and continue to have adjustment difficulties.
    3. technology in the work place and EVERYWHERE
    4. the large group of baby boomers and the affects they have in so many market sectors, from consumption or not, down sizing everything, which includes shifts in housing and what type
    5. perhaps some folks buying too much expense items with low interest rates on loans.
    6. Everything else..... a longer list to be sure
    Add to the list if you choose.
    Below is the German 10 year bond set for PRICE. This chart defaults at 3 months, but click on the other time frames just above the chart to follow pricing from earlier periods to date.
    The reason for the look here, although very narrow and set to one country; is an attempt to discover when yields travel to 0 and below, as to what happens to the PRICE, i.e.; anyone buying?
    My thoughts being that there is a point where one can no longer obtain a profit from PRICE gains and obviously no gain above inflation from the yield. Coming to the point of when is it no longer of consequence to invest in bonds of some form or other.
    Help me with this thinking, as needed; your insight to this is appreciated.
    10 yr German bond PRICE
    Pillow time here.
    Catch
    Can’t offer any special insights. If the crowd is right and this time it is different and rates are headed towards zero that will buoy bonds that offer a higher yield such as junk, non agencies, emerging markets, and more. I remarked the other day that from a contrarian point of view at some point over the next year rates will be higher on the 10 year in the 2,50 to 3% range. I hope that isn’t the case but it would not surprise me at all. Stocks would also be much higher and confound all those thinking a recession is at our doorsteps. You are thinking more based on fundamentals while I am thinking more based on sentiment and the counterintuitive nature of the markets.
    Junkster Junkster in Fund Discussions
  • We are in a new cycle of low interest rates so get used to it
    Hi @Junkster
    I remain in the "this time is still different" crowd.
    Couple of items with this.
    Watching the interest rate calls from 2011 or there about from the big houses. They all had and still have a hell of a time getting used to things these days.
    Aside from all of the trade and political turmoil; I have kept trying to weigh big house thoughts and actions on market directions.
    There are many possibilities, of course; but I try to place these next pieces together for today (meaning the last 8 years to date). Not in any order:
    1. machine trading
    2. large houses, and their traders and technicians not thinking this time is different and continue to have adjustment difficulties.
    3. technology in the work place and EVERYWHERE
    4. the large group of baby boomers and the affects they have in so many market sectors, from consumption or not, down sizing everything, which includes shifts in housing and what type
    5. perhaps some folks buying too much expense items with low interest rates on loans.
    6. Everything else..... a longer list to be sure
    Add to the list if you choose.
    Below is the German 10 year bond set for PRICE. This chart defaults at 3 months, but click on the other time frames just above the chart to follow pricing from earlier periods to date.
    The reason for the look here, although very narrow and set to one country; is an attempt to discover when yields travel to 0 and below, as to what happens to the PRICE, i.e.; anyone buying?
    My thoughts being that there is a point where one can no longer obtain a profit from PRICE gains and obviously no gain above inflation from the yield. Coming to the point of when is it no longer of consequence to invest in bonds of some form or other.
    Help me with this thinking, as needed; your insight to this is appreciated.
    10 yr German bond PRICE
    Pillow time here.
    Catch
    catch22 catch22 in Fund Discussions
  • We are in a new cycle of low interest rates so get used to it
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=eEZe-93MuYc
    Spoke at a seminar with Jim Bianco in 1999 when he was just starting out. While economists have a much worst prediction record than stock market prognosticators I was always impressed with Jim’s acumen. He always seemed wise beyond his years. In the clip from two days ago he was firmly in the this time it is different camp (who isn’t) and low rates are here to stay. I hope he is right for many reasons but getting real uncomfortable with the rates have nowhere to go but down scenario. Eleven months ago everyone was in the camp rates had nowhere to go but up. What a difference a year makes, If I can remember will revisit this topic same time next year.
    Junkster Junkster in Fund Discussions
  • Billionaire Ken Fisher Blasted Online After Offensive Comments At Closed-Door Fireside Chat
    What’s also offensive is he’s constantly hocking his sophisticated investment acumen on TV but never mentions the fact that for years his mutual funds stank up the room and were eventually liquidated.
    LewisBraham in Fund Discussions
  • How Long Can A Good Fund Look Bad?
    HSGFX is a terrible fund. I always start with best performers and then look for great risk attribute(SD,max draw,Sharpe,Sortino).
    That lead me to SGIIX,FAIRX,OAKBX) 2000-2008.
    In the last several years I have uses 1) USMV instead of the SP500 2) PRWCX for allocation 3) PIMIX for multisector until 2017 and since then IOFIX,JMSIX,JMUIX
    You get moderated off the M* forum and end up here. You are great at posting after the fact of unsubstantiated trades. You have been offered over $1000 to provide just a year or two of monthly trading statements but refuse. You have been asked to post in real time the day of your trades not days and weeks afterwards but you refuse. IOFIX? You are been vociferous the past year on your dislike of this fund. What exactly are your present holdings and % of total portfolio as of this morning. That is not a difficult question. In my 50 plus years in the game from what I have seen over at M* you are the worst trader I have ever witnessed. And I have dealt with thousands of traders.
    Can’t you just post your analysis which many enjoy and leave out all the fiction of your after the fact trading exploits. I may have to dust off my Crooks Con Men, and Charlatans thread.
    Edit. Here is a thread today over ar M*. Read carefully the comments from Bazinga. A most accurate analysis of the Great Pretender
    https://community.morningstar.com/t5/Community-Feedback/Is-the-FD-on-Bonds-thread-locked/m-p/26018#M1312
    Junkster Junkster in Fund Discussions