PRDSX, TRP fund. No load, a quant fund.
1-year: 29.74%
3 years: 14.24%
5 years: 11.95%
10 years: 14.99%
I've held it for several years. No plans to divest from it. It's true love. And you know, there's only two things that money can't buy: and that's true love and HOMEGROWN TOMATOES! Rest In Peace, Guy Clark. We miss ya.

Over the years I have been using a high % in one of the following funds NHMAX ORNAX OPTAX PHMIX by using momentum.

My HY Munis fund opened the year with a bang (already 0.7+% in just a week). All my taxable is invested in that fund. Time for me to add more money to HY Munis in IRAs, just like I did last year because it's better than Multisector funds.
See YTD (chart)

I bought Dodge and Cox International the first year it was offered-after doing quite well for the first years, it stumbled badly in ensoiuant years- however, hope springs eternal and it had a great 2019- may it continue !! any thoughts on the matter, you guys- and lassies??

This list is close to David's January commentary review of funds downside deviation. I looked at that in some detail and have the following two cents
1) AKREX concentration in several industries (20% MA and V) is concerning. A lot of it's outperformance was in the early years and it is similar recently to another fund that just missed the 10 year cutoff (see below), POLRX. Still AKREX seems to have accomplished this with a large chunk of cash onboard ( at least now)
2) FVD has six times the utility exposure of the larger market. Utilities have been o a tear but should they really be at 20 times earnings?
3) For folks who are willing to accept less upside for half the downside risk, MOATX and VWINX are stellar alternatives. Especially VWINX but I worry now that it’s 70 % bond position will not provide the ballast that allowed it to sail though 2008 with a maximum DD of only 18%. What happens when we get inflationary pressures and the bond market collapses? If it is because of increased growth the equities will make up but if it is due to our debt bomb…
5) I got scared off by DSENX opaqueness. A fund that just missed David’s 10 year cut off for his commentary is POLRX and it beats DSENX in almost every category, Upside/Downside ratio 1.24 vs 1.08, DSDEV 6.3 vs 7.4, APR 15.2 vs 15.1, MaxDD 12.8 vs 15.4. Ulcer Index 3.1 vs 3.3 Martin Ratio 4.6 vs 4.2. POLRX investment philosophy is clear and understandable although it has had the wind very much at it’s back in the last several years. Even so POLRX lost less than DSENX (14% vs 18%) in the fall 2018

VHT has been in our funds for several years.

As a trading vehicle, maybe, if you follow the sector and stay on top of it. As a buy-and-hold investor I'm not so sure long term. Personally I think the alternative energy space holds better prospects. Everyone will have to decide for themselves. Full disclosure: I've held EPD for about 10 years now and I'm thinking about trading some oil stocks.

Right. Sequence of returns risk is greatest at year 1 of retirement, generally the first 10 years or so of retirement have the major risk (decreasing yearly). The 5 or so years before retirement is also very significant in determining amount of portfolio available for withdrawal. During this 15-year period, be very diversified and if you don't maintain a consistent asset allocation (say, 60/40), be more conservative in this period.

MikeM "I don't know if <10 is the correct number or if it is 15 or even 20. But at some point you do dilute good managers or funds with not so good ones. And what typically goes with fund collecting is fund switching, translated, buy high and sell low. Just adding 2 more cents to what you said."
+1, more funds generally means more trades and more trades usually mean lower performance.
1995-2000 I invested mostly in one fund, US total index after I read Random walk
Since 2000 and after I started my best risk/reward funds, the max is 8 funds.
In the last several years it's 5 but many times just 3-4 funds. There is no reason for me to own my second best ideas but I also trade more often than others by being invested most times at 99+% and playing momentum. I don't recommend or promote it for anybody.
Over the years I helped many and I usually use 5-6 funds with 1-2 changes annually.
For investors who really want to be buy and hold investors, I would recommend indexes and/or Wellington funds (VWIAX,VWENX,VWEAX) because who knows what will happen 10-20 years from now, the expense ratio is very low and these are unique conservative funds that are managed by a group and not star managers.

Yes, I have been hearing this for years now; thanks
What do you see as the fuse, or the clock, --- the ticking event?

several comments:
1) I believe and can prove it that in most cases you want to own stock funds + bond funds because bond funds is where you find managers who can add performance + better risk attributes.
2) Stocks are simpler, you must own US LC and VTI/VOO is just a great, very cheap and will beat most managed fund longer term. This index also gets over 40% of its revenues from abroad
3) For about 20 years now my specialty has been to find the exceptions
PRWCX-this is the only allocation fund I would use. The managers use a flexible mandate + use several categories + making the right decisions for many years and why performance is in the top 1-3% for 1-3-5-10-15 years.
DSEEX-First, managers invest in global bonds then, they look at 11 US stock sectors and select 5 undervalued sectors, then take 4 sectors out of 5 with the best momentum. They don't invest directly in the index but in a derivative that is similar to the index.
Basically, you get 200% investments for the price of 100%. You get real bonds + derivative of stock indexes.
To make even simpler, let's assume they invest in just one sector SPY and assume the bond portion makes 3-4% annually. It means, the performance will be SPY + 3-4% - (paying for derivatives).
USMV/SPLV-low volatility funds work. PV(link) shows that you get similar performance with better risk attributes
4) For over 40 years high tech is where you will find the best opportunities and growth and now they own the world and this is the biggest category in the SP5500. So, why not just own QQQ which BTW gets over 50% of its revenue from abroad.
5) If you want to diversify abroad I don't like generic indexes. I like to make a bet that EM is where I want to be but not in Europe.
6) For bond funds, I have many great options and I mentioned many of them at my thread (https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/54803/bond-mutual-funds-analysis#latest)
7) Don't collect funds, the max funds you own should be under 10 and your best ideas.
Putting it all together and I can see VOO,PRWCX,DSEEX,QQQ + IISIX,VCFIX,IOFIX,PUCZX (you may need higher rated bond funds as ballast). Depending on goals I can make adjustments.

The decision to remain on the sidelines- (with a large stash of dry powder in short bond funds and Cd's ) or to dip into some of the more conservative suggestion.
Re: charles review of IOFIX- it shows a 0.17 correlation to SPY - but it is only 4 years old. How would this do in a recession ? And Charles Commented that the strategy had a limited shelf life. Looking for other suggestions to put some cash to work. Currently greater than 60% bonds and cash. I have both 401k and taxable cash to invest. Many thanks for your commentary... it is enlightening.

Morn'in @Mark
Kinda strange many times where these folks (in this case, your Greg Carlson notation) obtain their take or bias or whatever helps them form an opinion. I don't understand his statement about Fidelity management of this fund, FBALX. Perhaps Greg should look at the chart below. You, I and many here do the grain of salt thing when reading where we should or should not be investing our monies, eh? Continuing edumacation, yes?
Anyway, just for the heck of it; I picked a few balanced funds to chart back to Nov. 2008 (this limit because of etf, AOM inception). This is a random selection of funds, most well known, that popped into my head. I have not done any analysis as to how these match up; but are generally in the 70-50% allocation for equity to the best of my knowledge. Eight are active managed, one etf and one index.
For those I've known over the years and don't want to make things worse from their own meddling, I always suggest a look at these type of funds.
Charts below are total return for the period.
First chart is 5 listings with the names at the fop of the chart.
This chart is a bit busy, with the first 5; and another 5 added.
Have a good remainder............back to me chores.
Catch

@jafink63, the category natural resources and energy is what went down hill, not the fund itself. I haven't owned it in over 10 years, but PRNEX is a good fund if you want to be in that space.

Interesting take on FBALX from M*:
This fund lacks a competitive advantage. Summary by Greg Carlson Nov 14, 2019
"An unstable manager lineup and an undistinguished process earn a downgrade of the Morningstar Analyst Rating of Fidelity Balanced to Neutral across its share classes.
This fund is led by Robert Stansky, who can make shifts of 10 percentage points to its neutral allocation of 60% stocks/40% bonds. The equity portfolio maintains a sector-neutral position...."
(this is all I can access without a premium membership)
As catch 22 noted above the fund has returned 5.35% over the past year, 9.53% over the past 3 years, 7.97% over the past 5 years and 10.34% over the past 10 years. Feelin' lucky punk? I would like to read more just to see what this guys issues are with the fund and what he proposes as better substitutes. I'm almost willing to bet that it begins with 'Vanguard'. I'll forgive him a bit if it's PRWCX but only a bit because it's closed. This is why we (I) tune out analyst noise for the most part.

Hmmm, I have JABAX at Fidelity and is NTF. Also had it at Schwab for several years. Maybe the rules have changed since I added shares last year but you should try. It has done very well the last several years compared to other like funds. I just tried JABAX at Schwab as well and no problem there.
https://cdn.janushenderson.com/webdocs/Fact+Sheet_Balanced+Fund+(Multi-Share)_3Q19_exp+01-15-20.pdf

Happy New Years to you too Charles!

Hi @lrwilliams: (sigh) This likely explains why neither Charles nor Chip trusts me to do math any more complicated than figuring out the tip.
@msf: we might ask Charles. Part of what I was searching for was to find a way to help investors who do not want to assume market like risk. Many long short funds, for example, are premised on a 60% net market exposure. I was trying to imagine equity funds whose downside risk simulated that. That is, funds whose downside was equivalent to an 80% market exposure or a 60% market exposure.
@MikeM: The Steelers suffered 20 years of futility in between their two great quarterbacks, Bradshaw and Roethlisberger. Not sure that I have 20 years to wait for the next great rotation. Might become a KC Chiefs fan.
@newgirl: no reason for paralysis, though certainly prudence is always in order. What sort of guidance would you find most useful as you tried to get comfortable with taking some level of risk? I'd be happy to work from there, since I'm sure that your experience reflects that of many, many other people.
David

"Gary1952">dtconroe, I did purchase NVHAX with proceeds from an equity fund that had doubled. This is in my taxable account so I wanted to get some muni exposure and protect my profit. I was considering BTMIX but decided to go a little more aggressive. I read the your objection to the 2015 drawdown. But I have decided to pick funds with good potential and stick with them for a period long enough to prove me wrong. I will not need that money for a few years for monthly spending. I will review the performance at end of this year to see if it makes the grade for next year.
Hey Gary, I understand your reasoning. NVHAX performance since 2015/2016 is excellent. Hope it works out well for you.

dtconroe, I did purchase NVHAX with proceeds from an equity fund that had doubled. This is in my taxable account so I wanted to get some muni exposure and protect my profit. I was considering BTMIX but decided to go a little more aggressive. I read the your objection to the 2015 drawdown. But I have decided to pick funds with good potential and stick with them for a period long enough to prove me wrong. I will not need that money for a few years for monthly spending. I will review the performance at end of this year to see if it makes the grade for next year.

I believe all Fidelity's index funds, new and old, are managed by Geode. That company was created by Fidelity and later spun off - a fact not mentioned on its history page.
WSJ, Aug 5, 2003: "Fidelity Investments said it spun off an in-house investment firm ... Fidelity, the nation's largest mutual-fund firm, launched the company, called Geode Investors LLC, two years ago."
There was a thread recently that discussed voting records of fund families. The article cited in that thread said that Fidelity's index funds had a decent record. The reason for that is Geode. Geode has been voting the proxies for the Fidelity funds it manages. As I recall, even back in the 2000's, Geode had a better voting record than Fidelity.