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I cite detailed studies in my book by the Charles Schwab Center for Investment Research and also by Kobren Insight Group on the validity of the new funds effect. Also provide real time trade results on the new funds effect. Of course this was from what is now a mostly bygone era. But the effect is still there in some cases. A recent example being EIXIX - new fund in a hot sector. I would hate to think where I might be now had it not been for exploiting the new funds effect in the late 90s.
To each their own. Over two and a half years in March 2017 here at MFO I said IOFIX has been a “wonder to behold since inception”. In 50+ years in the game have never once looked at a fund’s expense ratio. Long ago in my book I wrote about exploiting the new fund effect. I used actual real money trading examples from new funds from Strong and INVESCO. I would have hated to have seen the expense ratios of these new funds.At the beginning of every mutual fund prospectus is generally a little seemingly innocuous sentence: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. So what if it's been hot in the past? The only question that matters to anyone reading this right now is--Will it continue to be? Time and again, fees or all-in costs have been the strongest most consistent indicator of future performance. Are low costs always the best predictor? No, that's why people come to this site. But Morningstar is absolutely right to ding this fund for charging a 1.5% expense ratio on $3.3 billion in assets when bond funds that specialize in non-agency debt can be had for much less.
I fail to see what relevance the last quarter inflows in 2017 has to do with now September 2019. IOFIX has trounced every bond fund in the multi sector, emerging market, high yield corporate and high yield muni, as well as the non traditional bond categories over the past three years with a 10.50% annualized return. There is no close second. I would think the dumb money is the money still waiting to initiate a position. When that occurs it may be time to run for the hills. In the meantime, its compelling story of being heavily invested in the ever shrinking legacy non agency rmbs arena continues."... It attracted more capital in last quarter of 2017 than in the first six quarters of its existence. It ended the year with $1.6B, five times the level it started the year..."
Jeepers. Is that a lotta "dumb money," then? Thanks for replying, all of you. I track IOFIX but don't own it. I own PTIAX, which is not quite the same animal, but in the same ballpark, right?
You have junk bonds at all time highs and now see where one of my favorite sentiment indicators the BofA bull/bear indicator gave a buy. The last time it went to a buy was January 3 of this year.
FWIW saying, I'm receiving noticeably more investment-signal service solicitations these days, including from services I briefly dabbled with over 10 years ago and haven't heard from in AGES. The contrarian in me takes that as a warning sign for equities.

In Oct 2008 I bought a house. Sold it 10 years later for a good profit.@Old_Joe: You said, "But we held on and came out the other side in decent shape."
My question to you & others that were around in 2007-08. Did you make any buys with ( dry powder ) as the market bled DOWN ?
I believe I made 2 or three small purchases & then held on for dear life !! Today I wished
I had spent , invested, a few more bucks.
With that said ,how many here at MFO were using some of their dry powder as of late Dec. 2018 ? I confess I missed that one also.
Derf
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