Some depends on what you need. Low-lying lake shore area here. Can’t pick up any of the locals due to nearby hills + forest - even with a substantial tower mounted antenna. I’ll bet most of you folks can receive your locals. Not that the locals are that great. But if you want the major networks / local stations out here you need to subscribe to something.
I’ve gone from DirectTV (rooftop dish receiver) to Hulu / Disney / ESPN (internet based) to UTubeTV (internet based) over the past 5 years. Prices fell with each change. UTube TV’s live TV package just jumped from $73 to $85. But it’s a very inclusive package with ESPN, TNT and lots of other sports channels. No complaint. Don’t mind commercials for regular programing. Hate for movies. Rent an occasional movie from Amazon Prime for $5 or buy the CD DVD used from E-Bay. Also, you can buy movies at Prime, save in your library and view them as often and for as long as you like.
I haven’t noticed any difference in the number of commercials among the 3 sources I’ve tried. DirecTV was horrible to work with. Glad to be rid of them. Hulu / Disney were fine to deal with. The Hulu / Disney package included commercial free movies. But you tire of the Disney branded eventually.

I haven't been active in M* Discussions for several years.
It was previously a good investing forum until M* started making "improvements."
Tis a shame...

raq,
That's correct if someone has risky stuff, DT doesn't. I respect DT decisions and his choices.
When I used to own both stocks and bonds, my bond funds were never the "safe" ones. My first bond fund that I bought in 2010 was PIMIX. Then, I prepared for my retirement in 2018. By the end of 2017, PIMIX was over 50% of my portfolio.
All my funds must be top performers ALL the time in their category based on risk-adjusted performance.
RPHIX vs MM. I'm with msf. As I said before, when rates fall, and they will eventually, RPHIX would do better.
But, why stop with RPHIX? Let's look at DHEAX+CLOI. For one year...VMFXX(MM) made 5.3%...DHEAX made 9.1%...CLOI 8.2%. Both volatility max loss was -0.5%. See chart (https://schrts.co/zbSQiQxp).
BTW, I've not been in the TR camp for years now. My portfolio volatility is very low, but performance is still good. I'm not arguing about CDs or not; just offering another option. I understand that this thread started as a CD one, but why not discuss the next step, especially when there is not much to talk about CDs?

mark: Oh man, the Dow must matter to someone otherwise why is it still a market marker after all these years? Also I'm not so sure there are any serious analysts but there are motivated ones.

There are other market markers but any time someone says THE MARKET it is the SP500 or VTI.

YBB:Correlation between DJIA and SP500 is 95%

Correlation still doesn't mean equal. Example: One year (as of 12/22/2024)...The Dow = 14.7%...VOO = 27.7% (https://schrts.co/gIHYNViK)
For 5 years: The SP500 doubled the Dow (https://schrts.co/INEenHhQ)

msf: "It is true that RPHIX did not return more than 4% before 2023. I suggest that a better way of looking at it is how much it outperformed cash. According to Portfolio Visualizer, it usually beat cash by 3/4% or more, with larger margins coming in years when cash returned under 2%. So it is not surprising that RPHIX has not exceeded 4% until recently. Cash has not exceeded 3% until recently."
msf, there are many low risk bond oefs, that "outperformed cash" in the past couple of years. But even when I was very active bond oef momentum investor, I held my "cash" in MMs or high rate Savings Accounts. RPHIX use to be in my "low risk" bond oef category, but RPHIX has gone through periods of losing principal, which was the case when I dumped it in 2020 with the market crash. RPHIX "risk" is much higher than MMs, CDs, Treasuries, and I will not use it in my portfolio, when I get comparable returns with "lower risk" fixed income alternatives. I would argue that the 2023 and 2024 TR performance of RPHIX are aberrations in the RPHIX performance history, and do not expect that to return anytime soon.
For the purposes of this thread, my maturing CD money will be very briefly in a cash account at my brokerage and bank, but after a very short period of a few days/weeks, it will be re-invested into much less risky options, compared to RPHIX, like noncallable CDs, MMs, treasuries, and maybe a callable CD. I would only use RPHIX if I thought it was going to significantly outperform CDs, MMs, treasuries, etc. who have much lower risk. Of course, others have a much different TR/Risk criteria, but I want to lowest risk option to produce "at least" 4%, and there are several fixed income options to accomplish that with risk lower than RPHIX. Others are encouraged to define their TR/Risk criteria, and dive into low risk bond oefs if it meets their criteria.

I appreciate your interest in low stress places to put cash for 2-3 years. Different people have different objectives and that leads to different choices - as you said, that is okay.
2-3 year brokered CDs (callable) paying no more than 4.6%. A non-callable 2 year Treasury (coupon 4.25%) is expected to yield 4.3% at auction. In a taxable account, the Treasury note yields a similar amount after tax if your state has an income tax. And it comes without call risk.
Though the Treasury has reinvestment risk every six months on its coupon payment. OTOH, the CD has reinvestment risk on its principal if the CD is called. I find the former less stressful (not much cash is subject to reinvestment risk). You may feel differently - it's a matter of personal preference.
It is true that RPHIX did not return more than 4% before 2023. I suggest that a better way of looking at it is how much it outperformed cash. According to Portfolio Visualizer, it usually beat cash by 3/4% or more, with larger margins coming in years when cash returned under 2%. So it is not surprising that RPHIX has not exceeded 4% until recently. Cash has not exceeded 3% until recently.
Portfolio Visualizer comparing RPHIX and ^CASHUS.
The question becomes: what do you expect cash to do? You've answered that. You expect cash to be flat or drop slightly. (Not saying this is right or wrong - no one really knows - just restating your perspective.)
Cash (as represented by 3 mo T-bills) is currently (12/20/24) yielding 4.34%. Lop off another 1/2% (assume the Fed "aggressively" cuts rates), and we're looking at 3.8% next year. Conservatively, add 1/2% for the RPHIX yield. That comes to 4.3%. This is not the worst possible case, but a fair estimate of the worst reasonably possible case.
It looks like RPHIX won't do much worse than a CD and could do better. Should short term rates plummet beyond what I suggested above, then the CD will get called.
Either way, for me I find RPHIX less stressful. Fully liquid and no need for a plan B if the CD is called. You may not care much about those factors (i.e. they don't cause you stress) and find yield volatility vis a vis a CD stressful.
I just finished a 3 year electricity contract - no stress. I'm now on a 9 month contract - more stress. There's something to be said for locking in rates. Everyone is different, and each situation presents its own types of stress.
[CD rates from Schwab and Fidelity. Treasury expected yield from Fidelity.]

Oh man, the Dow must matter to someone otherwise why is it still a market marker after all these years? Also I'm not so sure there are any serious analysts but there are motivated ones.

Although this thread is about CDs, the bond oef RPHIX keeps getting mentioned as a viable alternative. I was a bond oef, momentum investor before I sold all my bond oefs in 2020. RPHIX produced a consistent TR of 1% to 3% almost every year before 2023. In 2023 and 2024, it had a TR of slightly over 5%. I invested in CDs during 2024 that made about the same as RPHIX. I still own a large number of CDs paying over 5%. As a previous bond oef investor, I do not believe RPHIX will make over 5% in 2025, but instead I expect it to have a TR in the 3 to 4% range. I can get that in 2025 wirh callable CDs with no stress, so I am not inclined to use RPHIX for my very conservative portfolio when CDs will produce comparable or better TR, with less risk. If I want a solid investment for the next 2 to 3 years of at least 4%, I will invest in a noncallable CD that pays 4%, not RPHIX with no history of making 4% except for 2023 and 2024. I am well aware that posters/investors who are opposed to CDs will likely not agree with me--that is okay!

DT: I qualified for SNAXX in 2020 in my IRA account, when I met the $1 million investment requirements, but have to use SWVXX for my taxable holdings because I did not have enough money to qualify for SNAXX

Easy solution. In 2020+2022 I held MM at Schwab. I purchased SNAXX in 2020 in my rollover(=trad) IRA. Then I transferred one share from TIRA to Roth IRA and from Roth one share to my taxable.
I actually also bought at that time SUTXX+SCOXX and transferred to all accounts because when risk is very high, I like the safer options.
=============
The older I get and more money I have, the more conservation I get, but no CD/treasuries for me so far. I still use MM when risk is very high and I'm out of market.
CLOs had one of the best opportunities I have seen for years. I still in them heavily. Great performance with very low volatility. I looked at PAAA. Per it's last distributions, it's close to 4.7% on an annual basis.
CLOZ, one of the lower-rated CLOs, made over 20% in just 1.5 years.
Portfolio Managers John Kerschner, Nick Childs, and Jessica Shill discuss why they believe the strategic case for AAA CLOs remains compelling amid Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts.
(https://www.janushenderson.com/en-us/advisor/article/do-aaa-clos-still-make-sense-in-a-declining-rate-environment/)
Another CLOs link (https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/income-investing/why-clos-still-make-sense-when-the-fed-cuts-rates/)
RPHIX should be a no-brainer.
When rates start to go down, MM/CD/treasuries will be far behind.

alarm set for about 10 years
Now just 9½ years.
The public perception may have changed too about their fairness or unfairness.
It seems to me that it did, and in a rather curious way. Despite current antipathy toward "freeloading" government workers and government in general (there's a reason why Congress' pay raise was dropped from the CR), the unfair treatment of government workers was used effectively to garner support for eliminating WEP and GPO.
I find it interesting to compare the relative success (though it took years) in revoking these laws with the failed effort of Social Security notch babies to get more benefits for themselves. In both cases, it seemed that the loudest supporters of change were those who would directly benefit.
One difference is the size of the groups who stood to gain. Notch babies were just those workers born between 1917 and 1921. There are many more government workers. And they are still alive and apparently kicking.
Another difference is the matter of fairness. With WEP, most workers affected received less than their fair share of benefits. (Under WEP some high earners got more than their fair share, though less than they will receive now.) In contrast, all notch babies received more than their fair share; they just got less of a windfall than those born before 1917. That was their gripe.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/business/longterm/quinn/columns/030299.htm
Here's a paper with everything you wanted to know (and more) about the flaws in WEP and GPO and how two proposals could reduce (IMHO extinguish) inequities. TL; DR (19 page pdf).
https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/ssb/v79n3/v79n3p1.html (HTML format)
https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/ssb/v79n3/v79n3p1.pdf (pdf format)

WEP & GPO offsets were simple and crude mechanisms that had been in effect for 41 years. Now they are gone for at least 10 years. The public perception may have changed too about their fairness or unfairness.
My guess is that they may comeback in a better and more rational form when there are comprehensive fixes to Social Security - the clock is ticking with alarm set for about 10 years.
There are arguments for and against and I have summarized them in the link below - separately from the news,
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1787/thread

ADD: A reported gauge monitored by the FED, the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) slowed somewhat, may have helped support positive pricing on Friday for bond NAVs, via lower yields.
ADD #2: MANY BOND funds had distributions this week, which should be reflected in this weeks numbers, as provided by their sources.
ADD #3: This is directed towards possibilities into the new government period arriving January 20, and monetary/fiscal actions.
--- Bond vigilantes are investors who sell government bonds or threaten to do so to force policy changes and discipline excessive government spending:
--- Explanation
Bond vigilantes use their market power to drive up borrowing costs for the government. This can happen when they protest against expansionary monetary or fiscal policy.
--- Origin
The term was coined by economist Ed Yardeni in the 1980s to describe traders who sold Treasury bonds to protest Federal Reserve policies that were considered too inflationary.
--- Example
In the "Great Bond Massacre" from 1993 to 1994, US 10-year yields increased from 5.2% to over 8% due to concerns about federal spending. The Clinton administration and Congress responded by reducing the deficit, and 10-year yields dropped to around 4% by 1998.
NOTE:

My intention, at this time; is to present the data for the selected bond sectors, as listed; through the end of the year (2024). This 'end date' will take us through the U.S. elections period, pending actions/legislation dependent upon the election results, pending Federal Reserve actions and market movers trying to 'guess' future directions of the U.S. economy. As important during this period, are any number of global circumstances that may take a path that is not expected; and/or 'new' circumstances. In the 'cooking pot' we currently have the big ingredients of the middle east and also, how much damage Ukraine may inflict upon Russia and the response.

FIRST: NOTHING TO ADD/ALTER regarding 'Never-Never Land'. The pre-DC world shift of January, 2025 remains 'interesting' at this time! We're in a 'Never-Never Land' (events you never imagined) of potential large impacts upon various economic functions emanating from a central government in the coming months and years. What comes next for the investing world of bonds is not yet known or fully understood, except for those have a better guessing system than I. I can only watch and listen a little bit and let the numbers try to bring forth meaningful directions.
W/E December 20 , 2024. Bond NAV's Another HEAD SLAP for most + distributions
--- 'Course, all the bond sectors in the list find their reasons for price movements, and we find most bond sectors HAD ANOTHER HEAD SLAP for this week's pricing. The majority of bond sectors were down all day, with FRIDAY being the exception day. All durations pricing were down every day of the week. So, depending on where you're 'hanging' your bond market monies, the pricing this week, was mostly DOWN. The MINT etf, to the best of my recall, has maintained a positive price for the year, each and every week; and this remains for this week.
A few numbers for your viewing pleasure.
NEXT:
*** UST yields chart, 6 month - 30 year. This chart is active and will display a 6 month time frame going forward to a future date. Place/hover the mouse pointer anywhere on a line to display the date and yield for that date. The percent to the right side is the percentage change in the yield from the chart beginning date for a particular item. You may also 'right click' on the 126 days at the chart bottom to change a 'time frame' from a drop down menu. Hopefully, the line graph also lets you view the 'yield curve' in a different fashion, for the longer duration issues, at this time. Save the page to your own device for future reference. NOTE: take a peek at the right side of this graph to find the yield swings of the past week, and for the current yields for the last business day.
For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, December 16 - December 20, 2024
***** This week (Friday), FZDXX, MM yield continues to move with Fed funds/repo/SOFR rates; and ended the week at 4.37% yield (Unchanged for the week). Fidelity's MM's continue to maintain decent yields, as is presumed with other vendors similar MM's. Theoretically, a new yield bottom is in place, until the next FED action. SO, one is still obtaining a decent MM yield. MOST MM's found a negative .05 - .07% basis change in yield for the week.
--- AGG = -.66% / +1.37% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
--- MINT = +.08% / +5.77% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
--- SHY = -.04% / +3.66 % (UST 1-3 yr bills)
--- IEI = -.45% / +1.63% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
--- IEF = -.82% / -.46% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
--- TIP = -1.00% / +1.64% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
--- VTIP = -.37% / +4.50% (Vanguard Short-Term Infl-Prot Secs ETF)
--- STPZ = -.45% / +4.07% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
--- LTPZ = -2.24% / -4.31% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
--- TLT = -1.66% / -7.03% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
--- EDV = -2.31% / -11.54% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
--- ZROZ = -2.69% / -14.46% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
--- TBT = +3.69% / +24.74% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
--- TMF = -5.66% / -33.51% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 2x version of EDV etf)
*** Additional important bond sectors, for reference:
--- BAGIX = -.72% / +1.95% Baird Aggregate Bond Fund (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
--- USFR = +.12% / +5.31% (WisdomTree Floating Rate Treasury)
--- LQD = -1.25% / +.99% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds)
--- MBB = -.59% / +1.29% (I-Shares Mortgage Backed Bonds)
--- BKLN = -.24% / +7.84% (Invesco Senior Loan, Corp. rated BB & lower)
--- HYG = -.53% / +7.87 % (I Shares High Yield bonds, proxy ETF)
--- HYD = -1.40%/+3.49% (VanEck HY Muni)
--- MUB = -.73% /+.93% (I Shares, National Muni Bond)
--- EMB = -1.21%/+5.85% (I Shares, USD, Emerging Markets Bond)
--- CWB = -2.16% / +11.59% (SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities)
--- PFF = -.88% / +7.96% (I Shares, Preferred & Income Securities)
--- FZDXX = 4.37% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MM fund
*** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022. (For reference to current date)
Comments and corrections, please.
Remain curious,
Catch

Well …the current issue (12/23/24) doesn’t have much to offer.
Cover Story ”Shopping Addiction” Really?
Slim pickings inside this week.
- The O’Brien piece on preparing your portfolio for 2025 is downright insulting:
“Rather than plotting big moves based on tea leaves, make sure your mix of stocks and bonds is still aligned with your goals. Stocks’ big run-up means you could have a higher equity allocation than you bargained for, especially if you didn’t make any tweaks after the S&P 500’s 24% gain in 2023.”
Gosh - You’d think that would be covered somewhere in a college freshman econ class, if not a high school investment club.
- One worthwhile story touts (undervalued / under appreciated) value stocks which are poised to outperform next year. Where have I heard that before?
- NVIDA’s on hard times (their phrase - ”dead in the water”) being down 15% from its high. My heart goes out to those who bought two years ago.
- And Forsyth expects one of 3 possible interest rate scenarios for 2025: Good, Bad or Ugly. Take that to the bank folks.

Short term yields seem to have anticipated the Fed move. The 1 month yield dropped significantly between Dec 2 (4.75%) and Dec 12 (4.43%), but has been relatively flat since (now 4.43%).
OTOH, the 2 and 10 year rates started their most recent rise on Dec 6 (4.10% and 4.15% respectively) and have continued to rise to and through the Fed rate increase (now yielding 4.30% and 4.52%). Perhaps anticipating higher inflation?
Daily yield table, Dec 2024
One approach is not to be too greedy. If one is satisfied with 4.3% for three years, one can go with that and not look back.
Another approach is to go short term (giving up almost no yield at the moment), with the hope that longer term rates won't reverse course and drop. If that plays out and short term rates resume falling, one can switch horses (to multi-year bonds/CDs) and pick up the same (or better) rates as now.
This requires keeping a closer eye on rates and the economy so as not to get caught flat footed if rates drop across all maturities.
2- and 10-year treasury yields (since July)

2- and 10-year treasury yields compared with 1-month treasury yield (since July)

Yields fell since the rate cut this week. Most noncallable CD’s (1-2 years) are yielding 4.2% at Fidelity. Still sticking with T bills and USFR in non-IRA accounts.

Let us hope!
but Brooks for many years has been the prizewinning chump of ultra-equivocal quasi-prog / wannabe-con handwringing nambypambies
and just two days ago admitted an astounding essay discovering, or claiming to discover, numinosity
Quite something

Just in case you had any doubt as to what Orangina's priorities are here....this morning he's totally down with shuting the government down "on Biden's watch" to get his way.
Orangina has no concern for the country whatsoever.

His loyalists (40% of the population) don't care about this. They allow themselves to be brain-washed - Biden is the sole reason for inflation issues, or so they now believe.
Orange is going to FIX EVERYTHING!!! LOL. Yeah. Tariffs, govt shutdowns and Project 2025. Then he just blames Dems for all the world's woes in the next 4 years.
And he avoids jail time.

Looks like the Trump honeymoon is over for the markets. I’m not surprised

Me neither. Add in y/e selling, cashing in on the post-election euphoria, and perhaps a realization that the CRAZYTIMES are back in a little over a month, AND a looming GQP government shutdown, a noticeable pullback was expected (by me).
Equitywise, in my income portfolio I'm getting more defensive, staying inside the US (other than TRP, though I may keep SOBO too) and 'overweighting' on utilities, pipelines, infrastructure, and preferreds as I position this account for pre-retirement purposes in the coming years. My growth+income ports I don't expect to do much with anytime soon -- just letting good stuff ride for the long term.

BB: In this space, two or three funds may not provide meaningful diversification. For the most part, when XXXX hits the fan, they all go down together but I do acknowledge some historic idiosyncratic moves specific to each fund, which is not very often.

Stock funds are the ones without meaningful diversification when markets melt.
Bonds are the ones with better diversification.
In major stock declines, treasuries do well.
When rates go up, bank loans are usually better than most.
And then you have the special bond funds that do better in certain environments and you can find these very often in most years.

#1b (upstream giving) looks like a pretty big loophole for mass affluent/high net worth investors (with significant assets but under roughly half the estate tax exemption limit). This one never occurred to me.
As a loophole, it works with appreciated assets that you plan to hold for a few more years. Gift them to your 90 year old grandparent or parent, or for that matter any elderly person you trust with money. Have them bequeath that asset back to you in their will or via a TOD account.
Presto, in a few years the capital appreciation tax liability has vanished and you have your assets back intact. It doesn't seem all that proper to me, but it also doesn't seem to be illegal. As Schwab writes, the assets can be left to any "selected beneficiary". That means even you.
It's not quite as efficient as the way an ETF dumps appreciated assets onto authorized participants. But it is similar in spirit - use a straw man of sorts who has a way to make the tax liability disappear.