FYI: “For money you wouldn’t need for more than 10 years, which ONE of the following do you think would be the best way to invest it—stocks, bonds, real estate, cash, gold/metals, or bitcoin/cryptocurrency?”
That question was recently asked of more than a thousand investors in a recent Bankrate survey, and the winner—by a large margin—was real estate. For every two respondents who answered stocks there were more than three who said real estate is the way to go.
Are these investors onto something? Have financial planners been wrong all these years? For this column I mine the historical data for answers.
On the face of it, the respondents to the survey need to go back to their history books, as pointed out in a recent column by my colleague Catey Hill. Since 1890, U.S. real estate has produced an annualized return above inflation of just 0.4%, as judged by the Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index and the consumer-price index. The S&P 500 SPX, +1.53% (or its predecessor indexes) did far better, outpacing inflation at a 6.3% annualized rate (when including dividends).
Even long-term U.S. Treasury Bonds outperformed real estate, producing an annualized inflation-adjusted total return of 2.7%. Check out the chart below:
Regards,
Ted
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-single-best-investment-for-the-next-decade-2019-08-08/print

FYI: Two financial ratios Wall Street uses to rate different portfolios’ risk-adjusted performances have come under sharp criticism, including from one of the ratio’s own inventors.
The better-known of the two, the Sharpe ratio, was first published in 1964 by William (Bill) Sharpe. It ranks portfolios by their “excess” return above holding low-yielding but safe Treasury bills. The ratio is adjusted for the amount a portfolio’s value deviates from a constant growth rate. In 1990, along with other economists, Sharpe won the Nobel Prize in Economics for this and additional formulas.
A competing measure, the Sortino ratio, was announced in 1980. Developed by Frank Sortino, then a finance professor at San Francisco State University, it was considered an improvement for several reasons.
Most notably, the Sortino ratio only counts a portfolio’s downside deviation against it. A portfolio is not penalized for upside surprises, which the Sharpe ratio does.
In a rather shocking turn of events, Sortino has turned against both the Sharpe ratio and the formula that bears his own name. He’s developed an entirely new risk-adjusted ranking system that shows promise.
In his latest book, “The Sortino Framework for Constructing Portfolios” (Elsevier), the now-retired professor announced an improved ratio named Desired Target Rate-alpha (DTR-a).
Sortino and his book’s collaborators ranked the risk-adjusted returns of scores of mutual funds using all three ratios. The results are eye-opening.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/widely-followed-risk-return-measure-for-stock-portfolios-is-debunked-after-55-years-2019-08-07/print

Howdy folks,
The Chinese do not want to lose face. The Fed raising rates 25 bps, gave Trump cover to raise the tariffs on the Chinese. They must respond or lose face. Weaponizing the currency and stopping the purchase of Roundup ready Soybeans enables them to save face. Now Trump loves this because he WANTS to devalue the dollar because in his economic world view this would be a good thing - sort of like trade wars and higher tariffs are good things.
We're spiraling down the rat hole and hopefully, all y'all realize the Chinese nuclear option is to sell Treasuries . . . of which they own a whole steeenking pot full. Geez, that might also devalue the dollar.
Tariffs are a tax on your people and trade wars have ALWAYS ended in economic disaster - at least for the last 2,500 years or so. Read the Frogs some time about a government debasing their currency.
Idiots,
and so it goes,
peace,
rono

"Cheap composite is competitive with wood on price, but not very attractive."
Our neighbor here in Guerneville replaced his original redwood deck with cheap(er) composite after some thirty years of wear. When the composite failed after some three years he then replaced it with redwood again. The composite manufacturer did recompense him to some extent for the failed product.

@hank : Did you happen to price out composite decking vs treated ? Composite has low maintenance.

Yes - My builder priced it. Cheap composite is competitive with wood on price, but not very attractive. The cost of top quality composite would have been about 3X more than treated lumber. The old surface was cedar. Climate (ice and snow) played a part in the issues that arose. Also, the great wood preservatives / finishes from years ago have been taken off the market due to health and environmental concerns.

unless you are retired then place everything in bonds

The problem with putting 100% into “bonds” at retirement is that some of us may spend 30 or 40 years in retirement. Do you really want to settle for relatively low bond-like returns over all those years? The other problem with the statement is that “bond” can mean anything from “safe” U.S. Treasury bonds (yielding very little) to speculative C rated junk bonds having very high yields, high risk, and capital appreciation potential similar to that of equities.
Ol’Skeet is correct. I see inflation near everywhere I look. Don’t forget that higher taxes, government imposed fees, and tariffs on imports constitute a form of inflation - as well as the aggregate CPI items. For the life of me I don’t understand the low inflation figures the govt. reports. Just replaced the top boards on my deck with new treated 2x6s. Couldn’t believe the cost of materials alone. The original deck went on the house the first year I was retired. Grateful I wasn’t invested 100% in bonds over those 20 years as the price of lumber was doubling or tripling.
Best answer to those low govt. inflation figures is that technology has gotten cheaper. You can buy a 50”-60” color TV today for no more than a good 27” color set would have cost you 20-30 years ago. (But try munching on a TV for supper).

@Crash
You noted: "Gas is nuts: about $3.69. But you can't drive very far, anyhow, eh?....."
Island living.....Virgin Islands, etc. Always been expensive, except for some local products.....perhaps?
Don't recall exactly, but visiting family in the Virgin Islands 40 years ago, and one of the best Cruzan Rums available was about $1.00 for a tall bottle. A six pack of Coke for mix was about $2.50. These price ratios pretty much remain in tact to day.
Side story: St. Croix, V.I. Was there during a period of a small city parade. Fairly normal small town anywhere; with school marching bands, small floats being pulled by tractors, candy being thrown to the kids, AND 6 decorated flat bed trucks representing the rum distillers on the island............you guessed it. These flat beds moved along the road very slowly, and the adults could walk along the float and order their FREE favorite drink mix; as long as it contained RUM. Coca Cola, coconut milk mix.....whatever. The kids ended the day with a sugar buzz and some of the adults ended with a BUZZ, period. The most unique parade we've every attended.
I presume you've searched a cost of living comparison site for Hawaii.
Apparently the Arizona move is off the table, eh?

Global Cost of Living Index Columns may be sorted between high and low costs.
Wish you all well, if you choose to make the move.

I retired in 2012. But wife is younger and continues to work. I'm still in my family home until the pending sale is finalized. We could stay, owe no rent or mortgage payment, and just pay the taxes. But not after the most recent time I became a crime victim. So, we moved up our timetable and we'll be out by mid-October. For the record: do not even think about moving to Springfield, Massachusetts. Guns, drugs, gangs, murder, theft. I lament what this city has become over the years.
Our solution: moving in with cousins in a dream destination: Hawaii. The cost of living is considerably higher, but by sharing the housing expense (and food and cable) it's quite manageable. We've visited and spent time before, so we have a good feel for the environment. Taxes on retirees are not bad. I think I'll buy a bus pass. I'm not sure if I can use it all the way into Honolulu without an extra charge, but just about everything I need can be obtained on the Windward side of Oahu, where we're headed: Kaneohe.
This is not research or strategy, but it's well thought-out. "Fish and relatives stink after three days." Yes. Unless they're paying half the rent. ;) Utilities in that apartment are included, too. That simplifies things, as well. Gas is nuts: about $3.69. But you can't drive very far, anyhow, eh?.....
...Wifey will work. My SS and pension together will keep us comfortable, in any case. I just turned 65. I might just wait for the day when RMDs are required, to tap into my Trad. IRA. My accountant tells me I've got $5,000.00 of non-taxable, non-deductible IRA dollars still sitting in the account. He advises taking $1,000 or $2,000 at a time, if I choose to go that route.

FYI: Forget about getting everything right. Most people are so consistently wrong that merely avoiding major errors is enough to set you apart from the pack.
That is the message in the latest data from Dalbar, a Massachusetts research firm that has been studying the behavior of mutual fund investors for 25 years.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/26/your-money/stock-bond-investing.html?rref=collection/timestopic/Mutual Funds&action=click&contentCollection=timestopics&region=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=1&pgtype=collection

FYI: There’s an intriguing trend showing up in second-quarter earnings. And today I’ll show you how you can jump on it with a cheap closed-end fund (CEF)—I’m talking a 16% discount here.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelfoster/2019/08/03/an-all-american-9-7-dividend-trading-at-a-16-discount/#49b8d2b36461
GENERAL AMERICAN INVESTORS was established in 1927; it hadn’t fully deployed its capital in 1929, which helped it survive. In 1931, it nearly died as the market languished. That year “was way worse than 1929,” relates Jeff Priest, a former hedge fund chief and arbitrageur who took over as manager in 2012. He is only General American’s sixth manager.
General American is another stockpicker’s fund: It has an active share of 82, and its largest 10 positions account for nearly a third of its portfolio. They include retailer TJX Co s. (TJX), reinsurer Arch Capital (ACGL), waste-services company Republic Services (RSG), Microsoft, and Nestlé (NESN.Switzerland).
Priest follows a growth-at-a-reasonable price philosophy, looking to invest for three to seven years with corporate managers who are good capital allocators. “A high- quality investment depends on how the management team generates cash and redeploys it,” says Priest, 54, who learned about capital allocation from his father, Bill Priest, the Barron’s Roundtable member who has written authoritatively about shareholder yield.
The fund yields 10%; it has repurchased shares when they trade at a discount of at least 8%. Through September, it had bought back 23.5 million common shares; there are still 27 million outstanding. It also is repurchasing preferred stock.
General American has a relatively high expense ratio of 1.2%, but it also trades at an 18% discount. As Priest describes it, “that’s almost 17 years of forward investment management costs.” Indeed, Priest himself buys shares annually “because I get to have a dollar of assets for 82 cents—a long-term compound over my lifetime and the children’s.” Priest’s family owns 149,442 shares, worth about $5 million. That discount creates opportunities for new closed-end shareholders. At the moment, says Priest, “people are excited about deregulation and lower taxes. My own feeling is we [the market] have been going along for eight years and haven’t boiled over. If you made a basic assumption that equities discount nominal gross domestic product, you have an opportunity set in front of you that is beneficial.”
( Source Barron's Article Leslie P. Norton January 7, 2017)
General American Investors Website
http://www.generalamericaninvestors.com/
M* Snapshot GAM:
https://www.morningstar.com/cefs/xnys/gam/quote
CEFA.Com Snapshot GAM:
https://www.cefa.com/FundSelector/FundDetail.fs?ID=2046
CEF Connect.Com Snapshot GAM:
https://www.cefconnect.com/fund/GAM

Derf, I do not see a link to the article or its name. Could you try again, please?

Until @Derf gets back from lunch, these links might help. The February / March 2919 AARP Magazine references a 5-year retirement planner/check-list. By Googling different years (1-5) it may be possible to bring each year up separately (or all together).
- Here’s an overview of the full AARP edition for February/MAR 2019: https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/inside-the-februarymarch-issue-of-aarp-the-magazine-2019-02-07
- Here’s their one-year check-list: https://www.aarp.org/retirement/planning-for-retirement/info-2019/1-year-countdown.html
While the AARP materials leave me wanting, their suggestion to “test drive” the retirement budget a year ahead is invaluable - like testing the waters (and checking for crocodiles) before diving in.

Mornin' David
You noted: "One of the most ignorant and hateful statements that a person can make is “If you don’t like it here, why don’t you leave?”
But most people who want to change conditions do like it here: they love it here. They love it so much they cannot stand to see it suffer from its imperfections, and want it to live up to its ideals. It is the people who placidly accept the corruptions and perversions and inequities in our society who do not love America; they love their status, security and special privilege.
>>>Yes, narrow thinking minds are destructive, eh? Investors with this mind set may obtain positive returns over the years from the "lucky" portion of investing; but not likely from any ability to know how to position a portfolio based upon critical thinking skills, IMHO.
Hopefully, those here at MFO; whether they actively participate in discussions or not, are able to obtain many great pieces of knowledge to broaden their critical thinking skills to achieve their long term investment goals. At times, this process seems like a long and slow road; and indeed, this can be the case. Persist.
Lastly David, I hope I didn't drag your note outside of your intention. But, the words impact many facets of life; and could be expanded to infinity regarding human nature, which may affect investment decisions.
Regards,
Catch

This prompted me to take a look at my one “alternative” fund. That’s TMSRX from T. Rowe, which is approximately one year old. It’s an odd-duck in itself, relying on 5 different managers, each responsible for a different investment approach. But from a recent fund report here’s what I was able to clip:
“The Multi-Strategy Total Return Fund returned 2.70% in the six-month period ended April 30, 2019, and outperformed the ICE Bank of America Merrill Lynch U.S. 3-Month Treasury Bill Index.”
So it sounds as if they’re using the same 3-month T Bill index the Vanguard fund uses. One difference is that Vanguard bills its alternative fund as only for “sophisticated” investors. On the other hand, T.Rowe allows anybody with the minimum investment ($1,000 for IRA’s) to open an account. The fact that I was able to get in is testament that you don’t need to be very sophisticated to be let in the door. :)
But, I do want to say this: Although they “benchmark” against the 3-year treasury, I don’t think Price is shooting that low in their own expectations as to how this fund will perform. I know from reading their various commentaries over the past year that they feel this fund can generate positive returns, even in the event both stocks and bonds slump badly. That seems to be the underlying reason Price committed to this fund. How they plan to execute all this I can’t say. But I have enough confidence after 25+ years with them that if anyone can pull it off they can. Following it daily does seem to suggest little correlation with any other asset class. I’m not impressed, however by its performance over the first year. It lags even stodgy diversified income fund RPSIX YTD - not a very high hurdle IMHO.
FWIW

Not to Trump @Ted’s great summary. But the big news today to me is ......
. 10 Year Gov't Yield Yield 1.89%
. Spot Gold $1443.15 (+ 2.07%)
. GDX-Gold Miners Index 27.85 (+ 5.09%)
. Crude Oil $54.51 (-6.95%)
(Source: Bloomberg)
- Huge one-day drop in crude, possibly indicative of slowing global economy. Bloomberg says it’s the biggest one-day drop since 2015.
- Complete reversal for the miners, erasing all of yesterday’s steep losses - plus some.
- And what can you say about a now “whopping” 1.89% APR for those wishing to lock-up their money for 10 years in a Treasury bond?
I hope none of the above infringes too much on Ted’s corner. I know a lot happened in equities as well. But it’s these less followed sectors that caught my attention. What does it all mean? Who the #%@* knows?

FYI: Money has been pouring into bond funds globally this year, but income investors should tread carefully.
Net buying in global bond funds is on pace to reach a “staggering record” of $455 billion in 2019, according to BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. That compares with the $1.7 trillion of inflows over the past 10 years. The accompanying table lists six bond exchange-traded funds with assets totaling about $170 billion.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.barrons.com/articles/bond-funds-are-hot-income-investors-should-be-cautious-51564656306?refsec=bonds

Seems like the prudent thing after 10 years of a Bull... Nobody wants to be that guy that bought at the high, right before the precipice.

FYI: Janus Henderson Group Plc posted a seventh straight quarter of outflows, highlighting the asset manager’s continuing struggle to win over investors more than two years after it was created in a high-profile merger.
Clients pulled $9.8 billion out of Janus Henderson’s funds in the second quarter, taking withdrawals to $17.2 billion in the first six months of the year, according to a company statement on Wednesday. That keeps the pressure on Chief Executive Officer Dick Weil as he tries to turn the firm around during a tough period for asset managers, with investors increasingly shifting their money into low-fee index-tracking funds.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.bloomberg.com//news/articles/2019-07-31/janus-henderson-clients-pull-cash-as-post-merger-woes-persist?srnd=markets-vp
M* Janus Henderson Fund Family:
http://quicktake.morningstar.com/fundfamily/janus-henderson/0C00004AL2/fund-list.aspx

Oddly, the prospectus shows the fund in operation since 2013 ... though the prospectus acts as if its March, 2018 and presents odd performance numbers: up most years, down since inception? (rolls eyes)

I never got into DLEUX, but I am a fan of DSENX and CAPE. It's hard to make a case for international stocks. CAPE has gained 96% over the past five years while VXUS has lost 1.27%. The highly touted FMIJX has a yearly return of about 5% for the same time period. I own some SMID global/international and some MIOPX, but the days when I owned a big chunk of international either in my TIAA retirement account or my actively managed portfolio are long gone. Foreign under performance is quite long standing as typified by the demise of Harbor International, a former kingpin. On the other hand, I am a fan of global funds (MGGPX, ADPFX, ARTRX).

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=192105&sid=d9d66a27ff049344a50981
catch....thanks for your prompt reply!
above is a link to a M* bogleheads dicussion from a few years ago.
chapter 3 of the free link of the first 3 chapters of the book is the most crucial to get the gist of what McClung
has studied to be a way of providing a reasonably probable MSWR for varying projected years of retirement.
i understand his concepts with a layman's knowledge,and my library has been able to get me a copy of
'LIVING OFF YOUR MONEY'
what i'm curious about is if any of the MFO community know of McCLUNG's study,and possibly have any experience
w/ using his concepts for establishing stock/bond allocations,withdrawal patterns, and various asset allocation
breakdowns.(us/intl/lc/mc/sc/ growth/ value/bond choices/etc)
it is fairly complex, not a simple strategy.........and he does provide a remarkable trove of research
to support his premises.
i'm most curious to know if anyone has familiarity/opinions re his work, and how his credentials/work have been received.
thanks again,
tony