Thanks for the article @Ted,
I'll ask the question in a different way to MFO members. How have your gold holdings impacted your portfolio over different time frames and different market conditions or events? If it serves as a hedge to certain risks what were those risks? Did gold get converted during those "golden day" and into what?
The article's 4% allocation make me think of the 4% rule. Another way to think of it is have one years income allocated to a hard asset. but maybe more importantly have that hard asset fungible. I recall @rono suggesting having some gold or silver in the form of currency so that it serves two purposes. It represent the value of the metal, but also as a coin it is portable as a medium of exchange...a silver dime or quarter...a gold eagle. Each has a face value and a metal weight value. Numismatic value seems less important during time where you might consider trading the coin for a loaf of bread or passage on the next train.
I was in Hawaii in January when we were told to take shelter. I was on vacation and had neglected to pack my dimes and quarters (sorry @rono) so in that moment I realized I had a whole in my emergency plan pocket.
A few years ago I experience 10 days without electricity in a house that depends on the grid like most homes. Again, a teachable moment. I made some changes at the house. I purchased a 500 gallon propane tank and switch my appliances (stove, dyer, fireplace insert, hot water tank) to use the propane for everyday appliances. The propane also now doubles as a fuel that seamlessly integrates an electric generator into my electrical panel.
When it comes to holding gold and silver as part of a portfolio or emergency plan, I obviously need some coaching, especially away from home. I'd like to hear from others on your "emergency plans" and whether a hard currency plays a part in it.

FYI: The asset class with the worst performance over the past 10 years is collateralized commodity futures (CCFs). For example, from 2008 through 2017, PIMCO’s Commodity Real Return Strategy Fund (PCRIX) not only underperformed the Vanguard 500 Index Fund (VFIAX) by 13.7 percentage points, it lost 5.2% a year.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-dont-count-out-commodities?nopaging=1

FYI: Gold should have performed a lot better over the past two years — and especially the past two months. That’s because both periods were characterized by the factors that, according to conventional wisdom, should cause gold to perform well: higher inflation and stock-market turmoil.
Because gold GCJ8, -0.26% did not do well suggests that we should take a critical look at what makes gold a good investment.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-the-ideal-amount-of-gold-to-keep-in-your-investment-portfolio-2018-03-12/print

The standout defect in Morningstar's methodology is that the yearly survey is based solely on one year's performance. It would be helpful if Morningstar provided 3/5/10 year ratings. This paragraph in the article is suggestive:
"Many of the laggards have consistently ranked low on our Best Fund Families survey. That isn't to say that they don't have some standout strategies, only that as a firm they don't outperform consistently. The list can also fluctuate from year to year, as different styles go in and out of favor."
Coincidentally, on Friday, I sold my Mutual Series Funds (Quest/Global Discovery/Europe). I've owned Mutual Series funds since the early 80s when they were managed by Michael Price. For the last several years, they just haven't performed well. I don't believe their poor returns can be excused solely by their style of investing being out of favor; Great managers adapt. Besides performance, I was further discouraged by the latest shareholders' report that announced the retirement of another one of their managers (Philippe Brugere-Trelat). A picture of one of the remaining managers leads me to suspect the man spends his weekends shopping for a retirement home. The Quest fund was a great owl fund, but I think it's time has passed. Quest suffered from heavy redemptions last year. Franklin Templeton, which owns the Mutual Series funds, came in the survey's last place.
I decided to invest the sales proceeds in my winners: (1) 25% to the four funds managed by Meridian Funds [I like the new young managers who have taken over the funds-I've owned Meridian funds for about 15 years, and bought its Small Cap fund on the day it opened-thanks, in part, to David Snowball's positive comments about the funds' new managers .], (2) 25% to Primecap funds, and (3) 50% to T Rowe Price [Would it be possible to invest too much of my money in PRWCX? I've owned it since the 80s.]

investing in DSEEX would give similar diversification to a vanilla hybrid fund that had a roughly 50/50 stock/bond mix. The difference is one of magnitude of performance (i.e. getting hammered harder).

You know @msf, when I made the statement that I look at DSENX as a kind of balanced fund a couple years ago, I was hammered pretty good here with "no it is not, you can't think of this fund that way". So I'm glad that you investigated enough to say yeah, maybe it is, albeit a more volital hybrid than what we think of as a typical balanced fund. You explained it very well.

With all the people here who are skeptical of M*'s classifications, I think you just lobbed everyone a softball :-)
More seriously, it might depend on how the bond portfolio is being used. Also, DoubleLine and PIMCO tend to be especially opaque, and in DoubleLine's case somewhat unresponsive to M*. So it's not easy to pidgeonhole the bond side of the fund.
One way to use the bond portion of the portfolio is to eek out a little higher return. If the objective is to simply generate enough income to cover the ongoing expenses of owning the swaps plus a little more, you've basically got an equity fund with a small twist. On the other hand, if the objective is to manage the bond side as, say, a full blown total return portfolio, then the fund looks more like a leveraged balanced fund.
For example, MWATX invests in short term bonds (average duration under three years). It's just trying to beat the S&P 500 index, hence the name AlphaTrak 500. Somewhat in contrast, DoubleLine says that DSEEX is invested in bonds for "additional long term total return" (from prospectus).
Regardless of what the prospectus says, the fund in fact might be investing more conservatively, closer to the AlphaTrak model. A year ago, LLJB commented that the bond portfolio was (then) shorter duration and higher credit quality than DBLTX.
A typical balanced fund holds a bond portfolio that aims for higher return than that. It will use a longer (intermediate term) duration or lower credit quality, or both. So DSEEX may not resemble balanced funds so much as equity funds with "a little extra".
Or, M* may just have gotten lazy. Your guess is as good as mine.

FYI:
Regards,
Ted
March 8, 2018
Dear WEALTHTRACK Subscriber,
Keeping track of the myriad of disruptive technologies shaking up business and the markets is a daunting task. It requires familiarity with multiple disciplines, industries and global markets. In preparation for moderating a panel on the destruction and disruptions caused by digital technologies, I was sent a collection of brief essays from the host firm, Thornburg Investment Management, a well-regarded global firm managing both fixed income and equity portfolios and funds. With their permission, I am sharing it with you on our website, WEALTHTRACK.COM. I’ll be delving into several of the topics covered on future WEALTHTRACKS, including the widespread impact of the FAANGs (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google/Alphabet), Artificial Intelligence (AI) and robotics.
On the program this week, while public television continues its spring fund raising drive, we will be listening to part 2 of our rare annual outlook with Ed Hyman and Matthew McLennan. Last week we focused on the U.S. economy and markets. This week we expand our horizons to the world at large. Hyman’s “global growth accelerating” theme has definitely picked up steam and McLennan’s insights on political and financial risks have also proven prescient.
For those of you not familiar with Ed Hyman, he is the founder and chairman of Evercore ISI and the record holder for being voted the number one economist on Wall Street for an incredible 37 years in the Institutional Investor’s survey of professional investors because of his must read, brief and easily understood daily reports on trends in global economies and markets.
Matthew McLennan, another WEALTHTRACK regular over the years, heads up the Global Value team at First Eagle Investment Management where he is also portfolio manager for several funds, including the flagship First Eagle Global Fund, which he took over from legendary value manager Jean-Marie Eveillard a decade ago. McLennan is a worthy successor. The global fund has been a top performer among world allocation funds for years and is known for its superior risk-adjusted returns.
Thank you for watching. Have a great weekend and make the week ahead a profitable and a productive one.
Best regards,
Consuelo

Schwab started offering JP Morgan at least as early as 2012; Fidelity was a bit later, though I don't recall if it was by months or years. Don't follow TDA closely enough to have a clue there.
American Funds was a well publicized and recent addition. Haven't tracked Morgan Stanley funds.

Wondering about the status of SPHD, which seems to be getting pummeled YTD (-6.5%) because of its holdings in Utilities, Real Estate and other interest-sensitive stocks. I have built up pretty large cap gains since I bought it a few years ago. It's definitely in the wrong sectors right now, especially compared to something similar like SCHD. Opinions about SPHD?

Dividend stocks tend to ebb and flow, so I assume funds focused in this area do the same. I would tend to stay the course here.
I plan to add to an existing SCHD position when rates settle at their ultimate higher levels, but that might be a year or so from now. I've looked at SPHD, but that duplicated individual divi payers in my portfolio. As you noted, there's quite a bit of a downtrend in this space, but the divi's are what I'm looking for as I'm in the distribution phase.
A fund I plan to add in the future which has gotten a bit of discussion on this board is PMAIX. It has a nice global allocation, with a good dividend. It's also held up pretty well with the initial rate spikes. I'm watching to see if this continues. It might be worth a look.

Howdy @davidrmoran
Although I watch bond funds and Treasury yields, I have not viewed this mix together; so I threw your mentions along with FCBFX.

Chart (below) for a 1 year period through March 6, 2018. During this period there were 2 yield bumps of some consequence versus a smooth uptrend, being Sept. 7 and Dec. 14, 2017.
For these 5 funds, the following total returns for 1 year are:
FSICX = +5.5%
PONDX = +5.1%
FCBFX = +3.1%
DODIX = +2.4%
FTBFX = +1.5%

Since Sept. 7, 2017.......
FSICX = +.4%
PONDX = +.4%
FCBFX = -1.9%
DODIX = -.8%
FTBFX = -2.1%
Since Dec. 14, 2017.......
FSICX = +.2%
PONDX = -.8%
FCBFX = -2.4%
DODIX = -1.1%
FTBFX = -1.8%
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?FTBFX,DODIX,PONDX,FSICX,FCBFX&p=5&O=011000
One year chart of yield changes for 30,10,5 and 1 year Treasury issues.These, of course; are not the original issues yields, but the yields as determined by market forces. In this case of yield and not performance, the % increase shown at the right edge are the % change upward in the yield for the 1 year period.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?$UST30Y,$UST10Y,$UST5Y,$UST1Y&p=5&O=011000
Well, beyond central bank plans and such, overall; with the equity market shakes of the past several weeks, folks have not been running to safe haven bonds. Maybe individuals; but apparently the big money is missing. Are they go'in to cash? I don't have a clue.
But, as we began shedding equity; we did not move into safe haven bonds, as would have been the case 10 years ago, the sell money moved into money market. And there it sleeps for now, earning a tiny annual yield, but safe from a large draw down.
Take care,
Catch

@msf: Appreciate the post. We all have to play both ends off the middle, so to speak, given interest rates, market conditions, personal goals, and our own risk tolerance. CDs and Savings Bonds are worthless for generating real profits these days. I'm willing to slog through some bond-averse conditions like rising rates for quite a while, assuming that rates can't go up forever. And I am less and less worried about share price, and want to see the dividends coming in regularly into my bond funds and "balanced" funds. (bonds= 37% of total portfolio, but that 37% is not all in specific and discreet bond funds.) I have two that pay monthly, and I get quarterlies from the hybrid, MAPOX. (PRWCX is a hybrid, but pays only in December, so its div. is a thing I just consider a supplement to its cap. gains.) How often are we reminded that all of this sh-- (STUFF) is cyclical, eh? Of course evolving markets and new situations cannot just be ignored. Over time, countries move out of "frontier" to "emerging" status. And anything else you can think of, too. It all goes into the soup--- the world we invest into.
************************
Bond funds: much easier than trying to get into individual bonds, except for special offerings like the Massachusetts "mini-bonds" I recall, years ago. It's regular income, even though I don't need it right away and am reinvesting it all. All these years of reinvesting and re-deploying a big slug into STOCKS has worked well for me. And I'm 7 years away, still, from RMDs.

Written a few years ago, but I pretty good explanation of why not to worry...

Worst case scenario? The US dollar might depreciate against some other currency. That’s a long-shot but it could happen. Will that push up US interest rates? Doubtful. The US Fed determines the short rate, and the global search for safe assets plus expectations of future US Fed policy determines the longer rates.
Guess what. As we head into the next GFC (Global Financial Crisis), the US continues to look awfully good. Don’t bet against the dollar or US interest rates. Uncle Sam wears the biggest pants in the world.

Source:
china-dumps-us-treasury-bonds-paul-krugman-inches-toward

FYI: (Click On Article Title At Top Of Google Search)
They were in a culture where they believed their vision and values have carried them for the past 30 years and were continuing to carry them," said Sister Nora Nash, who oversees retirement funds for Sisters of St. Francis of Philadelphia, which led the proposal. "Obviously, there was tremendous risk in their culture, and we need to take a serious look at the code of ethics, accountability and really look at the needs of the customer and community."
Regards,
Ted
https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=u-mfWtHsFc685gKE2JS4Ag&q=How+nuns+got+Wells+Fargo+to+address+its+ethical+lapses&oq=How+nuns+got+Wells+Fargo+to+address+its+ethical+lapses&gs_l=psy-ab.3..35i39k1.6635.6635.0.13834.3.2.0.0.0.0.100.100.0j1.2.0....0...1.2.64.psy-ab..1.2.211.6...113.xpJHvAOP-AI

I am close to retirement so my first objective is not to loose much money, given how overvalued most of everything is.
I try to group bond funds by duration, relying on M* stats ( although they are somewhat dated and unreliable)
In order of increasing duration my positive funds seem to be
ZEOIX VUSFX FLRN VWSUX VMLUX ( all less than 1- 2 years duration)
FPINX
BAIIX PFIUX IOFAX
Then specialty funds
Inflation WIW
International MAINX
Worth noting PFIUX outperforming PONDX
FPINX is a very slow mover but may be worth keeping for times like this, although I am concerned their heavy use of asset backed loan might hurt if auto loan defaults go up
Traditional TIPs fund underwater, assuming because inflation lower than interest rate rise
I too am buying CDs but under a year so I can have cash for market correction or to live on.

Hi @Catch22,
The question that resonates with me ...
Is the "Trump Bump" going to turn into the "Trump Thump?" Or, pehaps worse into the "Trump Dump?"
I'm said to say, I hated to see Mrs. Yellen not get reappointed as the FOMC Chair; and, it also disappoints me to see Mr. Cohn resign. I'm thinking that these two people had great wisdom and a stabilizing effect and I am very said to see them go. Now, if McMaster leaves and Kelly follows ... Who's left? Tillerson & Ross
Remember, stock market votatility started during Mrs. Yellen's last week on the job and continues with the"Trump Follies" that now seem to follow. Yes, I'm sure there are good people that can replace them; but, their leaving creates uncertainty. And, the markets hate uncertainty.
I also agree that in the past our leaders and elected have given the store away in a number of foreign trade deals. But, do you upset the "Apple Cart" so to speak in revisiting these deals? After all, bruised apples have little value!
There are indeed a lot of things that need corrective action that politics messed up through the years.
Hopefully, these things can and will get worked out like rebuilding our steel industry without harming our neighboring trading partners, our long standing allies and even ourselves.
Skeet

SUBFX is short duration and high quality, though down very slightly for the year. They have a history of waiting till the time is right, then buying higher risk assets when they're beating down. OSTIX is short duration and low quality, but they have a history of picking well among lower-rated bonds so they avoid big losses. (They're at break-even for the year). THOPX has done very well for years (and is up 0.79%) though I don't know enough about it to recommend it--I'm looking into it.

Howdy,
Getting crazier and crazier. Way too insane for me. I'm further lightening up.
Oh, and while I hate to predict things - kids, this doesn't look like it's going to end well for anyone anywhere on the planet.
Time to go batten down the hatches. As Cpl. Ford used to say back some 50 years ago, 'keep your flak jackets close and your asses low'.
and so it goes,
peace,
rono

Hello,
Due to rising interest rates I've reduced my bond fund positions (from nine funds to six) within my income sleeve and I'm increasing my CD Ladder along with adding to my convertible securities fund plus a few other hybrid funds as well. I'm thinking most bond funds are going to take a hit in a rising interest rate environment I don't care how highly rated they might be or how good they are. Bond funds in general are going to take a hit in a rising interest rate environment. There is no magic sauce to prevent this although some will fair better than others.
Within my fixed income sleeve the average duration is 2.7 years with an average maturity of 5.35 years. Thus far this year on a total return basis the sleeve is at break even with my bank loan fund (GIFAX) and a strategic income fund (NEFZX) performing the best. In my hybrid income sleeve my best performer is my convertible securities fund (FISCX) followed by some hybrid type income funds (AZNAX) and (ISFAX). These funds are carrying their respective sleeves and if it was not for their stellar returns thus far this year both these sleeves would have negative year-to-date total returns. In addition, faltering funds might get trimmed and/or eliminated as the year progresses.
With this, I'm planning on expanding the size of my step positions within my CD Ladder as the steps mature plus I may add some more to my convertible securities fund and the other hybrid income funds that have positive year-to-date returns.
If you have a fixed income fund with positive total returns thus far this year please let your fellow MFO members know. I'm thinking they are few and far between. In my review of Morningstar's Fund Category Returns the bond fund categories with positive year-to-date returns are emerging markets, bank loan, world bond, non traditional bond, and ultra short bond.
I have provided a link below to Morningstar's Category Fund Return site.
http://news.morningstar.com/fund-category-returns/
The pickings seem to be thin within fixed income funds that have positive year-to-date returns.
Old_Skeet

Very nice issue, David!
I see you mentioned the Thompson Reuters Lipper Awards in Briefly Noted.
We are proud to be included among the Lipper Award winners this year! They honored us as the Best Alt Global Macro Fund over the last 5 years out of 55 in the category.

FYI: Norway’s $1-trillion sovereign wealth fund, the world’s largest, has earned less money because of divestments it has made over the past twelve years due to ethical and environmental considerations, it said on Tuesday.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-norway-swf/norways-1-trillion-wealth-fund-earned-less-money-due-to-ethical-profile-idUSKCN1GI0Y0