Food for thought - I’ve never subscribed to this popular notion of maintaining a separate “bucket” of cash to “tide you over” during temporary declines. My approach has been to create a (1) reasonably stable portfolio with growth potential and to (2) take small enough distributions so as not to deplete significantly the overall portfolio. Yes - you lose some ground by taking distributions from the investment pot during bear markets. But you’re farther ahead during up markets by having 100% invested (includes allocations to cash / bonds). Decision making related to how much cash to hold and trying to time when to dip into that bucket are substantially reduced. Albeit - you may also lose ground during bull markets as well because you’re not as aggressively invested as you might be (having a sizable bucket of cash in reserve). Since Ms Dizubinski and a number of smarter people here than me favor this bucket approach, I’ll defer to their judgement. No intent to give investment advice. Not an expert (Only “
C“ s in math).
Proponents of the approach Dizubinski advocates often point to the
duration (in month’s) of a bear market. However, a more accurate way to examine this is to look at the number of months from
market peak to
full recovery. Since the bull market always begins at the bottom of a bear market, the climb back up to the earlier high can be long. I suppose the proponents of the
cash bucket approach intend to rely on the bucket during the full recovery period?
Just estimating here - - Looks like it took about
10 years for the S&P to fully recover from its high reached in 1906 (Dividends / compounding aren’t included* / A world war transpired).
- About
25 years elapsed before full recovery from the 1929 S&P peak (A world war intervened).
- After the 1968 peak, nearly
20 years elapsed before all the S&P losses were recovered.
- The S&P partially recovered from the 2000 sell-off (
in 7 years) by around 2007. Than the “big fall” we’re most familiar with occurred.
- From that interim high in 2007, the market recovered in just
5 years. To some extent, that rapid recovery may have taught us the
wrong lesson.
- Full S&P recovery, however, from its 2000 high took something in the vacinity of
15 years.
Admittedly, the above analysis is at least partially flawed: *(1) It doesn’t account for compounded dividends paid investors along the way, (2) It assumes (
suggests) that investors dipped into their cash bucket immediately after a significant decline from “peak” occurred and relied on it until full market recovery, (3) It fails to acknowledge most investors are diversified into domestic equities, international holdings and debt instruments in addition to the S&P. To this last point ... If you own an
actively managed fund of just about any sort you’re automatically exposed to some fixed income (typically cash) held by the manager for liquidity purposes.
Here’s the source of the chart and some accompanying analysis:
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2019/04/01/a-perspective-on-secular-bull-and-bear-markets