Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • NTF Since When?
    Schwab started offering JP Morgan at least as early as 2012; Fidelity was a bit later, though I don't recall if it was by months or years. Don't follow TDA closely enough to have a clue there.
    American Funds was a well publicized and recent addition. Haven't tracked Morgan Stanley funds.
  • Buy, Sell and Ponder -- March
    Wondering about the status of SPHD, which seems to be getting pummeled YTD (-6.5%) because of its holdings in Utilities, Real Estate and other interest-sensitive stocks. I have built up pretty large cap gains since I bought it a few years ago. It's definitely in the wrong sectors right now, especially compared to something similar like SCHD. Opinions about SPHD?
    Dividend stocks tend to ebb and flow, so I assume funds focused in this area do the same. I would tend to stay the course here.
    I plan to add to an existing SCHD position when rates settle at their ultimate higher levels, but that might be a year or so from now. I've looked at SPHD, but that duplicated individual divi payers in my portfolio. As you noted, there's quite a bit of a downtrend in this space, but the divi's are what I'm looking for as I'm in the distribution phase.
    A fund I plan to add in the future which has gotten a bit of discussion on this board is PMAIX. It has a nice global allocation, with a good dividend. It's also held up pretty well with the initial rate spikes. I'm watching to see if this continues. It might be worth a look.
  • Bond Questions Again
    Howdy @davidrmoran
    Although I watch bond funds and Treasury yields, I have not viewed this mix together; so I threw your mentions along with FCBFX.

    Chart (below) for a 1 year period through March 6, 2018. During this period there were 2 yield bumps of some consequence versus a smooth uptrend, being Sept. 7 and Dec. 14, 2017.
    For these 5 funds, the following total returns for 1 year are:
    FSICX = +5.5%
    PONDX = +5.1%
    FCBFX = +3.1%
    DODIX = +2.4%
    FTBFX = +1.5%

    Since Sept. 7, 2017.......

    FSICX = +.4%
    PONDX = +.4%
    FCBFX = -1.9%
    DODIX = -.8%
    FTBFX = -2.1%
    Since Dec. 14, 2017.......
    FSICX = +.2%
    PONDX = -.8%
    FCBFX = -2.4%
    DODIX = -1.1%
    FTBFX = -1.8%
    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?FTBFX,DODIX,PONDX,FSICX,FCBFX&p=5&O=011000

    One year chart of yield changes for 30,10,5 and 1 year Treasury issues.These, of course; are not the original issues yields, but the yields as determined by market forces. In this case of yield and not performance, the % increase shown at the right edge are the % change upward in the yield for the 1 year period.
    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?$UST30Y,$UST10Y,$UST5Y,$UST1Y&p=5&O=011000
    Well, beyond central bank plans and such, overall; with the equity market shakes of the past several weeks, folks have not been running to safe haven bonds. Maybe individuals; but apparently the big money is missing. Are they go'in to cash? I don't have a clue.
    But, as we began shedding equity; we did not move into safe haven bonds, as would have been the case 10 years ago, the sell money moved into money market. And there it sleeps for now, earning a tiny annual yield, but safe from a large draw down.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • Bond Questions Again
    @msf: Appreciate the post. We all have to play both ends off the middle, so to speak, given interest rates, market conditions, personal goals, and our own risk tolerance. CDs and Savings Bonds are worthless for generating real profits these days. I'm willing to slog through some bond-averse conditions like rising rates for quite a while, assuming that rates can't go up forever. And I am less and less worried about share price, and want to see the dividends coming in regularly into my bond funds and "balanced" funds. (bonds= 37% of total portfolio, but that 37% is not all in specific and discreet bond funds.) I have two that pay monthly, and I get quarterlies from the hybrid, MAPOX. (PRWCX is a hybrid, but pays only in December, so its div. is a thing I just consider a supplement to its cap. gains.) How often are we reminded that all of this sh-- (STUFF) is cyclical, eh? Of course evolving markets and new situations cannot just be ignored. Over time, countries move out of "frontier" to "emerging" status. And anything else you can think of, too. It all goes into the soup--- the world we invest into.
    ************************
    Bond funds: much easier than trying to get into individual bonds, except for special offerings like the Massachusetts "mini-bonds" I recall, years ago. It's regular income, even though I don't need it right away and am reinvesting it all. All these years of reinvesting and re-deploying a big slug into STOCKS has worked well for me. And I'm 7 years away, still, from RMDs.
  • A Currency War Is Coming
    Written a few years ago, but I pretty good explanation of why not to worry...
    Worst case scenario? The US dollar might depreciate against some other currency. That’s a long-shot but it could happen. Will that push up US interest rates? Doubtful. The US Fed determines the short rate, and the global search for safe assets plus expectations of future US Fed policy determines the longer rates.
    Guess what. As we head into the next GFC (Global Financial Crisis), the US continues to look awfully good. Don’t bet against the dollar or US interest rates. Uncle Sam wears the biggest pants in the world.
    Source:
    china-dumps-us-treasury-bonds-paul-krugman-inches-toward
  • Sister Mary Holy Water Got Wells Fargo To Address Its Ethical Lapses
    FYI: (Click On Article Title At Top Of Google Search)
    They were in a culture where they believed their vision and values have carried them for the past 30 years and were continuing to carry them," said Sister Nora Nash, who oversees retirement funds for Sisters of St. Francis of Philadelphia, which led the proposal. "Obviously, there was tremendous risk in their culture, and we need to take a serious look at the code of ethics, accountability and really look at the needs of the customer and community."
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=u-mfWtHsFc685gKE2JS4Ag&q=How+nuns+got+Wells+Fargo+to+address+its+ethical+lapses&oq=How+nuns+got+Wells+Fargo+to+address+its+ethical+lapses&gs_l=psy-ab.3..35i39k1.6635.6635.0.13834.3.2.0.0.0.0.100.100.0j1.2.0....0...1.2.64.psy-ab..1.2.211.6...113.xpJHvAOP-AI
  • Bond Questions Again
    I am close to retirement so my first objective is not to loose much money, given how overvalued most of everything is.
    I try to group bond funds by duration, relying on M* stats ( although they are somewhat dated and unreliable)
    In order of increasing duration my positive funds seem to be
    ZEOIX VUSFX FLRN VWSUX VMLUX ( all less than 1- 2 years duration)
    FPINX
    BAIIX PFIUX IOFAX
    Then specialty funds
    Inflation WIW
    International MAINX
    Worth noting PFIUX outperforming PONDX
    FPINX is a very slow mover but may be worth keeping for times like this, although I am concerned their heavy use of asset backed loan might hurt if auto loan defaults go up
    Traditional TIPs fund underwater, assuming because inflation lower than interest rate rise
    I too am buying CDs but under a year so I can have cash for market correction or to live on.
  • Trade wars and tariffs in today's global interconnect & other swans
    Hi @Catch22,
    The question that resonates with me ...
    Is the "Trump Bump" going to turn into the "Trump Thump?" Or, pehaps worse into the "Trump Dump?"
    I'm said to say, I hated to see Mrs. Yellen not get reappointed as the FOMC Chair; and, it also disappoints me to see Mr. Cohn resign. I'm thinking that these two people had great wisdom and a stabilizing effect and I am very said to see them go. Now, if McMaster leaves and Kelly follows ... Who's left? Tillerson & Ross
    Remember, stock market votatility started during Mrs. Yellen's last week on the job and continues with the"Trump Follies" that now seem to follow. Yes, I'm sure there are good people that can replace them; but, their leaving creates uncertainty. And, the markets hate uncertainty.
    I also agree that in the past our leaders and elected have given the store away in a number of foreign trade deals. But, do you upset the "Apple Cart" so to speak in revisiting these deals? After all, bruised apples have little value!
    There are indeed a lot of things that need corrective action that politics messed up through the years.
    Hopefully, these things can and will get worked out like rebuilding our steel industry without harming our neighboring trading partners, our long standing allies and even ourselves.
    Skeet
  • Bond Questions Again
    SUBFX is short duration and high quality, though down very slightly for the year. They have a history of waiting till the time is right, then buying higher risk assets when they're beating down. OSTIX is short duration and low quality, but they have a history of picking well among lower-rated bonds so they avoid big losses. (They're at break-even for the year). THOPX has done very well for years (and is up 0.79%) though I don't know enough about it to recommend it--I'm looking into it.
  • Gary Cohn resigns, Will it be a happy eastern time zone equity morning? March 7
    Howdy,
    Getting crazier and crazier. Way too insane for me. I'm further lightening up.
    Oh, and while I hate to predict things - kids, this doesn't look like it's going to end well for anyone anywhere on the planet.
    Time to go batten down the hatches. As Cpl. Ford used to say back some 50 years ago, 'keep your flak jackets close and your asses low'.
    and so it goes,
    peace,
    rono
  • Bond Questions Again
    Hello,
    Due to rising interest rates I've reduced my bond fund positions (from nine funds to six) within my income sleeve and I'm increasing my CD Ladder along with adding to my convertible securities fund plus a few other hybrid funds as well. I'm thinking most bond funds are going to take a hit in a rising interest rate environment I don't care how highly rated they might be or how good they are. Bond funds in general are going to take a hit in a rising interest rate environment. There is no magic sauce to prevent this although some will fair better than others.
    Within my fixed income sleeve the average duration is 2.7 years with an average maturity of 5.35 years. Thus far this year on a total return basis the sleeve is at break even with my bank loan fund (GIFAX) and a strategic income fund (NEFZX) performing the best. In my hybrid income sleeve my best performer is my convertible securities fund (FISCX) followed by some hybrid type income funds (AZNAX) and (ISFAX). These funds are carrying their respective sleeves and if it was not for their stellar returns thus far this year both these sleeves would have negative year-to-date total returns. In addition, faltering funds might get trimmed and/or eliminated as the year progresses.
    With this, I'm planning on expanding the size of my step positions within my CD Ladder as the steps mature plus I may add some more to my convertible securities fund and the other hybrid income funds that have positive year-to-date returns.
    If you have a fixed income fund with positive total returns thus far this year please let your fellow MFO members know. I'm thinking they are few and far between. In my review of Morningstar's Fund Category Returns the bond fund categories with positive year-to-date returns are emerging markets, bank loan, world bond, non traditional bond, and ultra short bond.
    I have provided a link below to Morningstar's Category Fund Return site.
    http://news.morningstar.com/fund-category-returns/
    The pickings seem to be thin within fixed income funds that have positive year-to-date returns.
    Old_Skeet
  • David Snowball's March Commentary Is Now Available
    Very nice issue, David!
    I see you mentioned the Thompson Reuters Lipper Awards in Briefly Noted.
    We are proud to be included among the Lipper Award winners this year! They honored us as the Best Alt Global Macro Fund over the last 5 years out of 55 in the category.
  • Norway's $1 Trillion Wealth Fund Earned Less Money Due To Ethical Profile
    FYI: Norway’s $1-trillion sovereign wealth fund, the world’s largest, has earned less money because of divestments it has made over the past twelve years due to ethical and environmental considerations, it said on Tuesday.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-norway-swf/norways-1-trillion-wealth-fund-earned-less-money-due-to-ethical-profile-idUSKCN1GI0Y0
  • IRA funds transfered to Roth IRA in 2018. Want to know if it can be done in 2018.
    An RMD is a "required minimum distribution", to be a little obvious. It's a very precise amount determined by the IRS. It sounds like one of your concerns is that you satisfy the RMD requirements.
    Going step by step:
    1. RMD on 401k to IRA transfer:
    a) If you are still working at the employer where you had your 401k, then there was no RMD requirement on the 401k.
    b) If you terminated work at the employer with the 401k prior to transferring it, then I believe you must take an RMD from that 401k (based on Dec. 31, 2017 balance) before transferring the remainder to the Fidelity IRA. I'm not certain of this; a quick search turned up this piece (without supporting citations):
    Since the RMD cannot be rolled over, the plan should first issue one check to the plan participant for the RMD before issuing any checks for a direct rollover. When the check for all the plan funds is issued to the plan participant, he can only roll over any amounts in excess of the RMD
    https://www.irahelp.com/slottreport/rmds-must-be-taken-doing-rollover
    If this information is correct, and if you transferred the full amount of the 401k to the IRA, Fidelity should be able to work with you to get the 401k RMD portion distributed to you.
    2. Withholding on 401k to IRA transfer:
    a) If the check you got from your employer was payable to Fidelity (as trustee or custodian for your IRA), withholding wasn't mandatory. But if you nevertheless elected to have some withheld for taxes, that amount (as well as any RMD, see above) will be taxable to you as 2018 income.
    b) If the check you got was payable to you (i.e. you could have cashed the check yourself), then the employer was required to withhold 20% federal tax on the amount of the distribution above the RMD amount. As above, any money (RMD or taxes withheld) that didn't make it into the IRA will be taxable to you.
    You can avoid taxes on the amount withheld by adding this money to your IRA as a 60-day rollover of the 401k. That is, you put back the money within 60 days of receiving the check. Note that you are not allowed to put the 401k RMD into your IRA.
    3. 2018 IRA distribution:
    a) If you had no traditional IRAs before establishing this one in 2018, you had no IRA RMD for 2018.
    b) If you had other traditional IRAs at the end of 2017, then you must compute your RMD for all of those IRAs. You seem to be implying that you had other IRAs, because you talk about taking your RMD distribution (for 2018) by April 2019.
    Note the deadline for the first RMD is April 1, not April 15, of the following year. RMD deadlines for subsequent years are on Dec 31.
    https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/many-retirees-face-april-1-deadline-to-take-required-retirement-plan-distributions
    If you have an RMD for 2018 (case (b)), then you must take that RMD amount and set it aside before doing a Roth conversion. Until you do that, you are not allowed to convert 16% of the IRA into a Roth.
    4. Future RMDs and conversions
    Each year you will need to compute your IRA RMD based on your December 31 balances and how many years the IRS says you can expect to live. You must first withdraw that amount from your IRA. After that, you'll be able to do your annual Roth conversions.
    Disclaimer - this is not tax advice, just a little information I've picked up as I've gone along. It may or may not apply to you, it may or may not even be accurate information.
  • IRA funds transfered to Roth IRA in 2018. Want to know if it can be done in 2018.
    I hope this explains a little better on what I am trying to accomplish.
    I just retired and down to 4 weeks of vacation left.
    I am 70 years 7 months old.
    Had a 401k company plan where I worked.
    Last Friday I received a check for the 401k and also on Friday I surrendered said check to Fidelity to establish an active IRA account. The figures I am using are pretty general in nature.
    Also I am still working.
    This week I want to convert 16% of the IRA funds in this just established IRA to an existing Roth IRA. I can still do this - right?
    Bee I cant use the RMD calculator I Just funded the IRA. But generally a 4% figure is in the ball park.
    Next year around April 15, 2019 I want to do an RMD withdrawal in a general amount
    of 4% used to pay taxes on the RMD and on 2018 16% IRA to ROTH IRA conversion.
    From what has been written here - an IRA to ROTH IRA can still be done.
    I want to do this every year till no IRA funds are left.
    Thanks for all the input I have received.
    Gary
  • #3 alarmer Vulcan Value Partners
    The "Category Kings" in the WSJ monthly section on funds and etfs are listed by YTD performance, +6.9% for VVPLX. The fund had relatively bad years in 2015 and 2017.
  • #3 alarmer Vulcan Value Partners
    @Maurice; will check on duration tomorrow for WSJ. I did take a toe hold May 2015 & added to it Feb. 2016. Schwab shows 2 stars overall & 1 star last 3 years. I'm up 25 % so can't complain, but will keep an eye on the fund.
    Derf
  • MSEQX or NASDX
    @Carefree, I've owned MSEQX for about three years, happy with it. It can be volatile and it is a concentrated fund, with tech its favorite sector. It is also my top performer ytd but it can be a wild ride. That said, if you have a diversified portfolio and can access it ntf and load free as at Fido, go for it. The team is experienced and has a long record of outperformance.
  • On Thursday (3/8), the Bank of Japan will release a policy statement
    This house still a bit wary of equity markets, in general. I noted last year here about the BOJ purchasing etf's in their equity markets. I couldn't imagine at the time such a false market prop and for what good. Guess we'll discover the outcome at some point in the future. The BOJ announcement of itself may not be too critical on its own; but in light of many other vents in place or to be put in place, this could be one more heavy rock too much into the global equity boat and causing the hull to be a bit too close to the water line.
    Part of the article:
    Bank of Japan: On Thursday (3/8), the Bank of Japan will release a policy statement followed by a press conference. The Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda may announce an exit from monetary stimulus as early as 2019. If we see an announcement to dial back its huge stimulus program (ahem free money) we will likely see markets in Japan and around the world fall. The Bank of Japan bought assets that were equivalent to almost 1 years’ worth of Japan’s GDP. (Imagine the Fed instead of just buying MBS and Treasury’s bought $10 trillion USD worth of US stocks) Should that disappear, we are likely to also see a jump in bond yields and a strengthening of the Japanese Yen.
    https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/1-2-3-4-i-declare-a-trade-war-201803050213
    Anyway, wake up in a pleasant mood.
    Catch
  • David Snowball's March Commentary Is Now Available
    Elevator Talk: Ali Motamed, Balter Invenomics (BIVIX):
    "Boston Partners Long/Short Equity (BPLEX/BPLSX), Mr. Motamed’s previous charge, is by far the best long-short fund we’ve seen over the past decade."
    Mr. Motamed was a manager of this fund only for two years, 07/22/2013 - 10/20/2015. During that time the performance of this fund was mediocre.