Hi Guys & Gals: I'm thinking it important to have my portfolio invested based upon my risk tolerance. During times of a bull market run(s) I have found in the past I've let my equity allocation become to aggressive in prior years. However, after the 2008 market swoon I dialed my risk down and have continued to do so through the years and as I have aged. More recently, I decided I was still invested to aggressively by holding 50+% in equities and have decided to pull this on down to about 40% and raise my fixed income area up to about 40% along with cash to 20% which includes cd's, money market funds and US currency.
It concerns me that the FOMC is raising interest rates at a pretty spiffy pace. It is currently easy to get a 3% yield on a 2 year cd and about 2.8% on an eighteen month cd. I've got some money market funds now paying better than a 2% yield (and its rising). I'm thinking fixed income and cash are looking pretty darn good as compared to a heavy equity allocation especially during these uncertain times of rising interest rates, trade debacles with rising tariffs, brexit, domestic and global politics, etc.
I bet President Trump sure wishes he had left Janet in charge at the FOMC. I'm thinking she would have done a better job at looking at the big picture more objectively and would have moved more cautiously over the current FOMC chairman concerning the Fed's rising rate increase campaign. I've seen in the past where the Fed raised rates too far (and fast) until something broke. I just do not think they can move as fast as they are with their rate increase campaign without something in the economy breaking.
Form my perspective if they kill the stock market they kill the goose that lays golden eggs.

It seems that many of these type of bankruptcies happen after somebody takes over and assumes an impossible debt load, while taking money out of the company and selling off assets (Craftsman tools and Kenmore appliances, for instance).
I don't know if this is the case with Sears; the environment is really tough for old-line retailers who depend upon physical stores. I hate to see Sears go; OTOH, I have not shopped in Sears for many years.
David

@expatsp,
I've held the fund since late 2002 prior to its closure. Recent SEC filing indicated large distributions on the horizon. The fund had about 1B AUM at its peak, now down to $400M or so. Seeing both manager resigning from the fund with a new manager investment selection process was an indication it was time to move on prior to any distributions. Last several years distributions were anywhere between $1-$4 per share give or take some.
I've made money on the fund, now looking at putting the proceeds into Mairs & Power Small Cap after distributions are paid.

What was the point of:
1) Leaving KMart’s stores outdated and in disrepair for years?
2) Cheapening their merchandise to the point where no one would buy it?
3) Operating mega-sized stores with a single cashier (adding new meaning to the term “slow”)?
4) Allowing often vacant (of customers) but fully stocked stores to remain open near round the clock?
5) Allowing KMarts to cannabalize sales of nearby Sears outlets by selling Sears branded merchadise (Craftsman and Kenmore) at lower prices and during more convenient hours?
Geez - If you set out intentionally to ruin a business, you couldn’t do a better job.
The interplay between EL’s hedge fund and Sears Holings is curious. I don’t pretend to understand it. But it appears suspect. Apparently, near the end, his hedge fund was trying unsuccessfully to buy off the valued Kenmore brand from the parent company.
https://www.businessinsider.com/how-eddie-lampert-set-sears-up-to-fail-2017-5

Glad I saw this posting, as I've had OSMYX since 2012, a remnant of my time with ML. I do tend to follow good managers when they change shops, but will wait til everything shakes out and most likely follow Kanovich to Artisan. I own another Artisan fund ARTGX and although been disappointed in recent years, its still done well compared to its peers in this space, value has lagged, and I have other global funds that have picked up the slack.

I was one of the unfortunate few who invested in ARTWX and it was ugly. I end up transferring the remaining funds to ARTKX, which I had owned for years. The experience left me much less confident in Artisan Funds.

@Catch22,
Thought I’d give your synopsis a bump to the Discussions + side of the board where it may receive more notice. Not qualified to address your questions as you’ve stated them, but would like to score myself on each for the value of self-introspection.
A budget and spending habits / Grade A (93%) Downright compulsive re yearly budgeting. A weakness for splurging on upgraded air travel & accommodations.
Very basic overview of how the economy functions / Grade C (73%) - Geez, Does anybody really understand it? I can read three convincing depictions by three highly knowledgeable “authorities” and come away with three different views. Brings to mind the old line about “the one-armed economist”.
Overview of investment types/descriptions / Grade B- (80%)
I know quite a bit about mutual funds, having owned such for near 50 years - but little of stocks, bonds or ETFs and things like puts and calls - all outside my experience base.
The reasons for investing in a 401k/403b/Traditional or Roth IRA's / Grade A (95%) The reasons are pretty compelling.

FYI: Here is a number for your dinner conversation tonight: Did you know that the US government last year on average paid $1.5bn each day in interest payments, and this is rising toward $2bn per day over the coming years, see chart below. And this number could rise further as interest rates go up because of an overheating economy, more Treasury supply, and lack of demand for US fixed income from abroad because of higher hedging costs. These forces pushing US rates higher did not disappear yesterday.
Regards,
Ted
https://ritholtz.com/2018/10/us-deficit-1-5-billion-in-daily-interest/

I'm making a list of books and web sites to promote towards the "why in hell would I want to be an investor" folks I know.
The target age range is mostly 25-50 years old, BUT needs to include the young ones, too. Some of the folks who will receive information from me are retired, but may pass along the information to their adult children and hopefully to the grand children. The could be named, "Investing for the unaware or the afraid"
The criteria, somewhat; by areas:
As an example, I can't be taking these folks into a 3rd year session of learning French; as they have not yet had the basics from beginning French, at day one. I need to keep this on the simple side in the beginning to maintain their interest. Yes, investing is a learning curve and an ongoing study; but I don't want them to feel overwhelmed and quit the journey. I anticipate not much better than a 10% survival rate, sadly.............
--- A budget and spending habits
--- Very basic overview of how the economy functions
--- Overview of investment types/descriptions, although the direction would tend towards mutual funds; as this would be the most common form available for most
--- The reasons for investing in a 401k/403b/Traditional or Roth IRA's
NOTE: Two items that I already have in place, is Ray Dalio, "How the economic machine works" (free, 31 minutes, Youtube); and "The millionaire next door" (spending habits, budgeting)......book.
I have not yet reviewed Youtube again; but there are indeed very useful pieces there; as well as Khan Academy.
I'm leaning towards online writes and video how-to to obtain the best results and temptation to read/watch and become involved by the folks I'll be contacting.
Thank you in advance, for more guidance towards meaningful sites/books at the elementary level.
Take care,
Catch

remember this from a couple years ago
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/column-this-is-what-happens-when-you-take-ayn-rand-seriously

FYI: Sears Holdings Corp . filed for bankruptcy early on Monday morning, the culmination of a years-long decline of the American retail institution, providing another example as to why hedge fund managers should steer clear of retail.
Sears (ticker: SHLD) sought Chapter 11 protection and announced a deal with its lenders that will let it keep many stores open and continue paying vendors and employees. Its $1.8 billion debtor-in-possession asset-based credit facility gave it some $300 million more than it had before filing.
Bankruptcy enabled it to “reject leases” on about 220 store locations, almost all of which are “dark stores” not open to shopper traffic where Sears has already shut operations. Sears will start “going out of business sales” at another 142 unprofitable stores, which will close by year-end. It had already announced intention to close 46 stores by November. The 125-year-old company operates about 700 Sears and Kmart stores, and employs about 70,000 people.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.barrons.com/articles/sears-bankruptcya-cautionary-talefor-hedge-fund-managers-1539619499?mod=hp_DAY_2

Last several weeks, PCI was traded at a slight premium. Cerrtainly nowhere near the double digit discount it enjoyed several years ago.

This week is a repeat of the decline in late January this year, exception that the situation is worse with higher interest rates, tariffs, and geopolitical risks. CDs, 2-years Treasury and (even) money market are more attractive options.

50% Equity 50% bonds/cash Retired over 14 years and no withdrawals

"In the 10 years ending Dec. 31, 2018, retirement plans lost approximately $2.5 trillion in potential assets at retirement due to $86 billion worth of defaults." - Christopher Robbins, Time Traveler.

err...have the timber prices timbered so much these guys cannot retire? Wierd to consider it as a retirement plan. Why not just put the money in stock market for 30 years? That's supposed to work out right?
Let's not tout capitalism and then complain later. Mortals don't get bailouts. Good think Christmas celebration is not necessarily related to religion (while fox news might tell you otherwise) else some day even planting christmas trees may not be a good strategy.
New federal program offered farmers money....I'm done.

@Old_Skeet, I hold AOFAX in taxable and in my Roth, and since I use only my taxable account for modest withdrawals, I am not concerned too much about the cap gains, will just take it as ordinary income and leaves more cash in account :). Besides, half of my taxable account is in muni bond. AOFAX has taken a big hit over the last 2 months, but holding, I like the manager and everything is getting hit.
Regarding the two funds you mentioned, I always like Gabelli, but I am sure he will retire soon, and although it has a large management team, I get the impression he is the master of his universe. It has been around a while, and have heard about it for years, but never sought to buy it since I liked others I had better. Regarding the Ivy fund, used to own its tech fund, but had to sell it when I moved from ML to Fido, they did not carry their funds at the time, bought PRGTX to replace it. I see they do sell them now, with IGWAX load free and ntf. Morningstar gives it only one star based on its fees, not taking into account it is sold some places without the high fees. That fund looks like it would be a nice complement to aofax, with larger amount of microcap and no mid cap, but it sure can be volatile, but with your diversification, it most likely would not bother you too much :)

FYI U.S. stocks dropped sharply Wednesday as an ongoing surge in Treasury yields pulled the Dow Jones Industrial Average down nearly 500 points and put the S&P 500 on pace for its longest losing streak in nearly two years.
The selloff put both indexes on track for their biggest losses in a single day since April, while the S&P 500 was poised to slide for a fifth straight session. The pullback sent a measure of stock-market volatility, the Cboe Volatility Index, up 19% in recent trading, suggesting investors were bracing for further swings in the market.
Fast-rising bond yields and signs of inflation have spooked investors that profit margins could narrow, sparking one of the biggest downturns of the year among shares of fast-growing companies that have benefited from a decade of near-zero interest rates.
The selling undercut the strong gains companies like Amazon.com , Netflix and Salesforce.com have contributed to the stock market this year and left some investors who hold those shares flat-footed.
Regards,
Ted
Bloomberg Evening Briefing:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-10/your-evening-briefing
Bloomberg:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-09/asia-stocks-point-to-mixed-start-treasuries-rise-markets-wrap?srnd=premium
WSJ:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-pause-amid-doubts-over-growth-1539158283
Reuters:
https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/utilities-defensive-stocks-buck-drop-is-it-time-to-sell-microsoft-stock/
IBD:
https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/stock-market-today-dow-breaks-support-nasdaq-worst/
MarketWatch:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-futures-fall-sp-500-could-notch-longest-losing-streak-since-november-2016-2018-10-10/print
CNBC:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/10/us-markets-bond-yields-and-data-in-focus.html
Europe:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-stocks/tech-selloff-causes-sharpest-fall-in-three-and-a-half-months-for-european-stocks-idUSKCN1MK0ZV
Asia:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-in-hong-kong-china-try-to-stay-afloat-nikkei-slips-2018-10-09/print
Bonds:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/10/us-bonds-and-fixed-income-key-economic-data-eyed.html
Currencies:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/10/forex-markets-dollar-us-treasury-yields-british-pound-in-focus.html
Oil:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/10/oil-markets-imf-global-growth-outlook-hurricane-michael-in-focus.html
Gold
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/10/gold-markets-us-treasury-yields-dollar-in-focus.html
WSJ: Markets At A Glance:
https://markets.wsj.com/us
Major ETFs % Change:
https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/etf-monitor
SPDR's Sector Tracker:
http://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/tools/sector-tracker
SPDR's Bloomberg Sector Performance Pie Chart:
https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/sectors
Current Futures:
https://finviz.com/futures.ashx

FAIRX has also been dinged by its large bets on Fannie and Freddie that never materialized. The fund bleeds 1% in ER as well. It is holding over 25% in cash.
M* categorizes the fund as Large Value with and investing style of small growth...emphasis on small...often negative growth. If that wasn't enough, Hurricane Micheal is slamming the panhandle where it's largest equity position, St Joe Co (JOE) holds most of its RE assets this week.
Finally, its trailing returns have been very consistent over the 1 month through 10 years time frame (rank 100th)...ouch.

FYI: Over the past hundred years, the George family’s farm has been sharecropped, grazed by cattle and planted with cotton. By the late 1980s, Clayton George was growing soybeans and struggling to make ends meet.
A new federal program offered farmers money to reforest depleted land. Pine trees appealed to Mr. George. He bought loblolly seedlings and pulled his pickup into a parking lot where hands-for-hire congregated.
“We figured we’d plant trees and come back and harvest it in 30 years and in the meantime go into town to make a living doing something else,” he said.
Three decades later the trees are ready to cut, and Mr. George is learning how many other Southerners had the same idea.
A glut of timber has piled up in the Southeast. There are far more ready-to-cut trees than the region’s mills can saw or pulp. The surfeit has crushed timber prices in Mississippi, Alabama and several other states.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.wsj.com/articles/thousands-of-southerners-planted-trees-for-retirement-it-didnt-work-1539095250