Most trades - 70 to 80% - are made by bot programs. The programs are looking for the best return for the next day or month or maybe YTD. The programs do not care about or consider your retirement plans or what your portfolio is going to look like in five or 10 years.

I tried switching from my iPhone to a Google Pixel a few years back.
I lasted one day. Returned the Pixel and sped to the Apple Store begging them for a new iPhone ... and to be let back in the family. Damn the cost. Slave for life.
The iOS vs Android choice turns out to be one of the most important decisions you will ever make.

GrapheneOS can be installed on Pixel devices for enhanced privacy/security.
"GrapheneOS is a private and secure mobile operating system with great functionality and usability. It starts from the strong baseline of the Android Open Source Project (AOSP) and takes great care to avoid increasing attack surface or hurting the strong security model. GrapheneOS makes substantial improvements to both privacy and security through many carefully designed features built to function against real adversaries. The project cares a lot about usability and app compatibility so those are taken into account for all of our features."
"GrapheneOS is focused on substance rather than branding and marketing. It doesn't take the typical approach of piling on a bunch of insecure features depending on the adversaries not knowing about them and regressing actual privacy/security. It's a very technical project building privacy and security into the OS rather than including assorted unhelpful frills or bundling subjective third party apps choices."
https://grapheneos.org/features

I tried switching from my iPhone to a Google Pixel a few years back.
I lasted one day. Returned the Pixel and sped to the Apple Store begging them for a new iPhone ... and to be let back in the family. Damn the cost. Slave for life.
The iOS vs Android choice turns out to be one of the most important decisions you will ever make.

I haven't bought any Apple products in 15 years. I got tired of Apple deciding that I needed to update, being that I continued (and still use) old products that still work. Apple's policy was to "update" your product, and make it so it doesn't work like it used to. And, to top it off, you couldn't undo the update. Plus, the older products I have still work, but the Mac Mini I had didn't last long. The ipod touch 3G I have still works, and so does an ipad 2, but the ipod 4 has all of the buttons frozen. Don't miss their products.

Individual bonds typically pay interest every 6 months, and reinvestments of small amounts won't be practical. So, low ER bond fund is the way to go.
Individual zero-coupon bonds do have built-in reinvestments at interest rate determined at the time of purchase and if held to maturity.
Annual simple 6% will make $100 into $106 in 1 year, $172 in 10 years.
If compounded monthly, $100 will become $106.17 in 1 year, $181.94 in 10 years. So, compounding matters over long times.

I still use their products (b/c I avoid Windows like the plague) but I am nowhere the Apple fan I was 5, 10, 15, or 30 years ago, that's for sure. Their QA has slipped noticeably in recent years and they're engaging in dirty tricks to keep their walled garden monopoly -- as the Epic case illustrates. But while I use their hardware, much of my data (files, contacts, calendars, email) are portable and/or used on other services b/c I refuse to be completely locked in.
Their knowingly false advertising about (so-called) 'Apple Intelligence' last year was another example of them misleading people by offering them hopium in their quest to drive iPhone sales during their annual release cycle.
(No, I did NOT intend for my post turn this thread into a general Apple-bashing thread.....)

As usual, who is angry...again?
Does Buffett or Bogle use T/A or recommend it?
On this site, Charles Lynn Bolin has posted excellent analysis of what funds to own; does he use T/A?

On November 13, 2009 Buffet sat for an hour long interview with Charlie Rose. It’s the best of the roughly dozen UTube videos circulating out there where Buffett mentions T/A. Buffet pokes gentle fun at the concept saying he doesn’t “buy stocks and hope they go up”, but says instead: “I buy good companies and hope they go down” … so he can buy more. But Buffett is not a fund manager (as specified in @Stillers’ question). Is Bogle even managing a fund? I thought he departed this world years ago. Plus - Bogle was an index guy, neither T/A or fundamental research.
I won’t link any Buffet videos because all of the shorter, more succinct ones I looked at are of poor quality plus an aging Buffett (even a decade ago) tends to wander aimlessly reflecting on his coming of age as an investor at 19. Not really very good viewing. The Rose interview is good - but at an hour’s duration I’ll pass.
I also Googled whether or not David Giroux’s uses T/A and drew a lot of “blanks” on that subject. Apparently Giroux is too smart to get drawn into a debate (raging on the internet) as to whether T/A or fundamental analysis is better.
I think both sides here have made good points and hope a truce can be arrived at because I’d hate to see any of the participants leave the board.

"condescension unnecessary."
Yeah, well, you did call T/A "the dismal astrology of technical analysis." I routinely support T/A so I take your comment as condescending. Perception is reality as they say.
I'm not sure what most of the rest of your post has to do with the discussion, but here's my FWIW story that may show we ain't in galaxies very far away from each other.
I hail from near dirt poor, that is, we did have real floors.
I was a bean counter for 35+ years doing major audit work in federal programs.
Been investing since 1980.Early on, our strategy was paint-by-numbers, driven by my investing mentor's guidance; investing exclusively in Magellan and then Low-Priced Stock when it was born, set the stage for a likely early retirement.
We retired financially independent at age 56.
In recent years our investment strategy has been driven by T/A.
Our market exposure is ~40% Passive/~60% Active, and primarily OEFs.
Our radar has been squarely on taxes since starting employment. We have not paid a dime in FIT/SIT since retiring in 2012 and plan to not pay a dime until RMDs in 2029.
There are three stages to investing: Accumulation, Maintenance and Disbursement. We are still in the Accumulation phase at age 69 and don't project to to even sniff the Maintenance phase until age 90. Our liquid net worth is expected to increase through the end of our projections at age 100. So drawdowns are nothing we concern ourselves with.
I have a coupla advanced, graduate level certifications in accounting and auditing.
Also...
We've been to a Super Bowl that our team came back to win in the last minute and a World Series that our team won in the bottom of the ninth of Game 7 against arguably the greatest reliever of all-time.
Unfortunately, we've never stayed at a Holiday Inn Express but hope to one day.

As a follow up to a comment above about Katie S's statement,

Katie Stockton managed TACK. I heard many of her opinions...meh.
See it's 3 year

TOTAL performance...TACK just 12+%...even PIMIX beat it with 17%...QLEIX made 84+%.
See the chart (https://schrts.co/ZjrFaPNz).
I also checked the Fear & Greed Index over the years, and it's far from accurate.
As usual, I'm staying on topic.

You were routinely laughed out of serious T/A discussions on M* for years. So your appraisal of a good/bad T/A means little to me.

Does FD1k use T/A or just magic?

You can read what I do on my page.
I use big picture analysis with only 2 possible outcomes. I get a signal to stay in/out at 99+%.
Then, the charts(simple T/A) + other indicators must verify it, and then I trade.
The main idea is not to lose more than 3% from any last top because I have plenty. I own mostly bond OEFs. The performance must be better than 50/50. Since retirement in 2018, I easily beat it.
I don't care to beat any index or anyone. I only care about my goals.
I always sell too early; when I'm wrong, if my indicators improve, I'm back within days.
When I'm right, I hardly lose and can be out from weeks to months (in 2022, I was out 9-10 months).
My conclusions
* T/A is an art, and you must practice it and create your own system.
* I only use it on the extreme, to verify going from buy to sell. That mechanic helps me a lot.
* Over many years, my T/A works pretty well with slow bond funds, not so much with stock funds because volatility creates uncertainty.

If TA really works...Thoughts?

There are two primary methods of stock/market analysis, fundamental and technical.
I don't know of a PM worth considering as my PM that doesn't use both. Do you?
T/A is art and science. The science part is relatively uniform and consistent. The artist part varies wildly at times and is critical to success.
Even more critical is individual investors determining who the good artists are. It took us years to develop an inventory of names and sites of who we believe are good ones. I routinely name a few when quoting them. I'm pretty sure based on the level of T/A knowledge and skepticism on this board I'll be limiting those direct references in the future.
T/A is highly fallible on an individual and case-by-case basis. So...we review several T/A's work, look for common projections/conclusions, and try to determine the validity of WHY they came to that. We have found it VERY useful (read, "necessary") during highly volatile times including Corrections and Bears, to project trading ranges and min/max pain levels, and to refine our strategy.
Popular investment boards were fortunate for years to have a great resident T/A posting regularly. In 2022, I think he had a TR north of 20% using T/A and trading 3x ETFs. I would wager that TR FAR exceeds the (likely negative) TR of ANY other participant on this board. I know it works for him.
And on a far lesser accomplishment, T/A has sleeping us well and net positive YTD.

As a follow up to a comment above about Katie S's statement,

Katie Stockton has been managing TACK. I heard many of her opinions...meh.
See it's 3 year TOTAL performance...TACK just 15.1+%...even PIMIX beat it with 17.4%...QLEIX made 86.4%.
See the chart (https://schrts.co/QgpCSIrP).
I also checked the Fear & Greed Index over the years, and it's far from accurate.
Katie Stockton performance fund, TACK. No need to look further.

As usual, I'm staying on topic.

Thank you for the information. We have few small I-bond holding maturing in 2026. Unsure if we will continue to add more I-bonds due to the 5-years holding period. Working with Treasury Direct is not the easiest.

I pay “forecasters” little heed. Worth looking at for whatever logic they bring to bear. Can be educational. A few, I suspect, may have ulterior motives - trying to move markets in one direction or another so they can buy lower or sell higher for their paying clients. I always suspected a well known former PIMCO bond manager / CNBC regular of that practice.
T/A to me is a different bird than simply forecasting. Won’t dispute that it works for some practitioners. I personally do a lot of chart-gazing when considering an investment. Being afraid of heights, I usually buy things that have underperformed in recent years - but have a solid longer term record. Guess that’s a crude sort of T/A.
Some will recall a member @Flack who lived and died by T/A. Was an expert follower. And often went head-to-head with another valued regular @MJG. :)

Wow. That's a big deal. I believe David championed this fund when it launched more than 10 years ago.

I posted this on the BSW thread yesterday at market close:
Had started DCAing back in on April 21 at low end of my projected S&P range. Did NOT expect to try to trade my projected top end of the S&P range.
But...after surprising 7%-10% runs up since then in respective Apr 21 OEF BUYs, and hitting my projected top line of S&P range today, especially on low volume, decided to SELL equivalent amounts.
Also, S&P closed at ~20x expected future earnings and earnings are widely expected to broadly decline.
EDIT: Reality check from the venerable Liz Ann Sonders, Schwab, after the bell today when asked what if we get news on some big trade deals (paraphrasing):
"Well it all depends on the nature of those deals. True comprehensive trade deals historically take on average eighteen months to put together. Then they take on average about four years to implement."
===================================
This morning brought the harsh reality of bad economic news and futures are DOWN ~1%-2%. The projected trading range that I am actively trading, now on both the top and bottom of the range, appears to be taking form.
Blind squirrel finding an acorn...again? Or maybe this T/A stuff can and does work, at least sometimes?

From Bloomberg this morning:
”The US economy contracted at the start of the year for the first time since 2022 on a monumental pre-tariffs import surge and more moderate consumer spending, a first snapshot of the ripple effects from President Donald Trump's trade policy. Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product decreased an annualized 0.3% in the first quarter, well below average growth of about 3% in the prior two years, according to the government's initial estimate published Wednesday. Net exports subtracted nearly 5 percentage points from GDP, the most on record, the Bureau of Economic Analysis report showed. The data highlight the scramble by companies to secure merchandise ahead of expansive tariffs.”
Also - Listened to a Bloomberg interview with Mark Mobius, formerly of Franklin Templeton notoriety, last evening. Mostly an EM analyst. Can’t tell you what his batting average is. Says he has the money he now manages 95% in cash - waiting for a big buying opportunity. Yet, Mobious confidently predicts the S&P will finish the year much higher than it is now. Go figure!

Had started DCAing back in on April 21 at low end of my projected S&P range. Did NOT expect to try to trade my projected top end of the S&P range.
But...after surprising 7%-10% runs up since then in respective Apr 21 OEF BUYs, and hitting my projected top line of S&P range today, especially on low volume, decided to SELL equivalent amounts.
Also, S&P closed at ~20x expected future earnings and earnings are widely expected to broadly decline.
EDIT: Reality check from the venerable Liz Ann Sonders, Schwab, after the bell today when asked what if we get news on some big trade deals (paraphrasing):
"Well it all depends on the nature of those deals. True comprehensive trade deals historically take on average eighteen months to put together. Then they take on average about four years to implement."

@yogibearbull,
You might enjoy this book (The Prosperous Retirement):
Reviewed here (in greater detail):
https://retirementresearcher.com/retirement-spending-increases-decreases-time/

An important simplifying assumption in William Bengen’s research is that retirees spend constant inflation-adjusted amounts throughout retirement. This may be at odds with the spending patterns of many retirees. An exploration of the data should give us an idea of how people actually change their spending during retirement.
A well-known early example of spending changes over time for retirees can be found in Michael Stein’s 1998 book, The Prosperous Retirement: Guide to the New Reality. Stein says retirement happens in three phases, popularly known as the Go-Go, Slow-Go, and No-Go years of retirement.

Also, a boglehead discussion on the topic:
https://bogleheads.org/wiki/Models_of_spending_as_retirement_progresses

Prior MFO post on CCLFX; there are also related posts in MFO/MFOP Ratings thread.
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/182683/#Comment_182683
Morningstar has an updated feature on CCLFX - how it became the biggest interval-fund. There is also a good background on interval-funds.
"Along with privately held Cliffwater, big sponsors like Blackstone, Blue Owl Capital, Ares, KKR, and Apollo Global Management have been loading up on capital raised through open-ended evergreen funds that are registered as 1940 Act vehicles. More than new 30 such products hit the market in the past two years, according to Morningstar, and there were more than 115 vehicles in the interval category (AUM $93.4 billion) alone through February."
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/how-cliffwater-interval-funds-led-private-wealth-fundraising-bonanza