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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Schwab to roll out broader overnight trading platform
    @hank, no but people could trade stocks with 5% margin equity then. Pump-&-dump probably comes from that era - buildup excitement to create a rush to buy, then pull the rug to wipeout overleveraged people.
    I see!
    FWIW - the Meb Faber interview with Rob Arnott and Campbell Harvey I linked in the “Where to Invest Now” thread gets into the issue of a massive increase in retail trading in recent years. Not necessarily critical - but they see it as one market mover along with index / passive investing.
    I’ve only recently (5 years) become aware of how easy & inexpensive it is to trade just about anything, as I was mostly with just a few good fund houses before moving to Fido. Fortunes can quickly be made or lost. Puts my $1 nightly wagers on a MLB game to shame.
  • Automobile Cost of Ownership
    It is not that we cannot do it, eventually. But, it will take time to get it all figured out on a much larger scale, and cost much, much more per unit. And while the cars may last 10-15 years, problems are inevitable as we try to do it all on home turf. Automotive service these days can get very pricey. And whatever we produce will, likely be uncompetitive in foreign markets, on price. Less units sold equals higher cost per unit.
    My guess is that Trump loses interest in a year or so, after a few questionable "deals", and calls it a day, basically moving on to other inanity. Some foreign automakers will increase output on U.S. soil. That is not a bad thing, to be fair.
  • Automobile Cost of Ownership
    The best part (and takeaway) is that there is a company making cellphones in the U.S., and the phones are $2000 each, and not particularly good. Now extrapolate this to what you are going to pay for a 100% American made automobile, parts and assembly. And the potential QC issues of trying to manufacture everything here. Cars that cost 4x what they do now, and are rife with defects while they work out the flaws in 5 to 10 years.
    Isn’t that awesome ? We prefer import care when we rent they in travel, where they are much move reliable. Can you afford spending $60,000 on a new car and having to replace it every 3 years ?
    The movie “Gung-ho” depicts American auto manufacturing (to a Japanese parent company). These is no QC on part sourcing, assembling, and testing, before the cars are rolling of the floor.
    michael keaton movie car manufacturer
    My first car was a Camry assembled in Kentucky with Japanese components. In was a nice touch to see a check list (in the glove compartment) with 50 items that were signed by individuals who carried they out. In was a very reliable that ran flawlessly for 20 years until our family grew.
  • Fidelity - Link External Bank Account
    micro-deposits have always been used to validate linked accounts
    As I posted elsewhere, it seems that these micro-deposit accounts can appear "spontaneously" years after the link is established. (Automated systems revalidating the link.)
  • Automobile Cost of Ownership
    The whole American Made schtick is funny. Trump leases bandwidth on existing cellular networks and tries to sell cheap re-branded phones for $500 claiming they are American made. It turns out that these low-end phones are 100% Chinese made and they are caught out immediately, thus removing the claims from their website. Now trying to push cheap Chinese phones onto their MAGA base.
    The best part (and takeaway) is that there is a company making cellphones in the U.S., and the phones are $2000 each, and not particularly good. Now extrapolate this to what you are going to pay for a 100% American made automobile, parts and assembly. And the potential QC issues of trying to manufacture everything here. Cars that cost 4x what they do now, and are rife with defects while they work out the flaws in 5 to 10 years.
  • Automobile Cost of Ownership
    Considering that a 2.5% annual inflation rate (rather average) would add up over 10 years to a cumulative 30%, In context, that is not particularly high. And people have been opting for more expensive, content-laden trucks/SUVs over time, pushing up total ownership costs.
    It is important to note that total cost of ownership should not be confused with purchase price. Car prices, like-for-like, have not gone up 30% in a decade. A 2025 Honda Accord base MSRP is only about $3000 more than a 2015 Accord was. Which is closer to 12% over 10 years. Well below even muted inflation rates.
    I wonder what impact tariffs will have on new car prices over time? I guess we will have to come back to that in a year or two.
  • Social Security Report
    Last week's annual Social Security report still projects that the retirement trust fund will be depleted in 2033.
    Across the board benefit cuts of approximately 23% will be required unless action is taken.
    "That leaves us hurtling toward the aforementioned 23% benefit cuts in just eight years
    an outcome that is both unacceptable and entirely avoidable."
    "There are just two ways to avoid that:
    1. When the solvency cliff is reached, Congress can inject general revenue into Social Security on an emergency basis to maintain benefits. Social Security would be partially financed through debt for the first time.
    2. We elect a Congress and president willing to push through a strong, progressive solution that does include tax increases."
    "And both of those things could occur - probably in that order.
    First a crisis, then a progressive solution that gets the program back on track."

    https://retirementrevised.substack.com/p/this-is-not-the-moment-for-social
  • Automobile Cost of Ownership
    ”We like to pay cash for new Honda and Toyota every 20 years.”
    No quarrel with paying cash. But no desire to drive a car for 20 years either. I love new cars. For years I was piling 20,000 + miles a year on everything with long commutes to work + frequent 5-hour weekend drives to the cabin and back. Vehicles weren’t worth much on a trade after 4 or 5 years. So drove them into the ground. Now, retired, I put less than half the miles on them. Still pretty good trade value after 4 or 5 years.
    The bells and whistles on newer vehicles are wonderful - like the blind spot warning (my first ever). And it even signals if a pedestrian walks behind when backing up. The lane tracing was good on the 2018 Honda, but much more accurate and reliable on the new Toyota. And the self dimming rear view mirror really works. Even the brightest high beams from tailgaters don’t bother me. Power seats. Heated seats & steering wheel. AWD. Put that in your pipe and smoke it when it’s 15 degrees out and pitch dark at 5 PM in January.
    Yes, it’s an extravagance. Not the best use of money. But I can do without other niceties. And if I want to “enjoy” 20 year old technology, I still have the rusting old pickup to drive. But driving it feels like torture compared to the new car. I always check insurance rates with my local agent before buying a new vehicle. Huge difference among different brands and models. The one I have now is quite reasonable.
  • Fidelity - Link External Bank Account
    Several years ago, I linked a bank account to the same Fidelity account.
    Didn't experience any issues—only took a few minutes.
  • Looks like the S&P will hit a record high right out of the gate Friday
    And yet, the 12 month return on SPY is 33rd on my watch list of ~95 US equity funds.
    At the moment, the top five are VVOIX, BSCRX, CGDV, WTV, and AICFX. I have to go back ten years to get it up to 14th.
  • Leavitt: July 9 trade deadline "not critical"

    We get the "C" team. I pity the fool.
    I think this team is comprised of whatever ego-hungry rube they could find at Central Casting ... imo they're not even worthy of a rating.
    We're all unwitting passengers sailing on the 'USS Make Some Sh--t Up' and the bridge crew is without a care in the world.....
    At this point i think other countries know the WH is full of smoke and will cave in the face of any serious retaliation - or might decide to just wait it out for the next 3 years? Who knows.
  • Automobile Cost of Ownership
    Forest Gump once said, "Auction cars are like a box of chocolates..."
    That is so true! Cars are expensive to own and to maintain. We like to pay cash for new Honda and Toyota every 20 years. Leasing and financing to own are not worth it. To us having a reliable car is essential for work and travel. Our insurance policy still creeps up even we have clean record on accidents and traffic violations.
  • TBLD TIBIX/TIBAX
    TBLD is trading at a 6.23% discount to NAV compared to its 52-week average discount of near 10%. It’s less than 5 years old. Close to 70% in equities. The 30% in bonds is mostly junk (BB / lower / unrated). To its credit it managed to lose only around 17% in 2022. Not bad considering the damage incurred by both equities and bonds that year.
    Agree the ER is high for a fund not leveraged (and incurring interest expenses on borrowings). I’ll forgive a high ER on a CEF if it has a very long term record of success and is attractively discounted / priced. But this one doesn’t have those attributes. In defense of the ER, the fund does have more than 50% of its assets invested outside the United States which adds additional expense.
  • The PCE(personal consumption expenditures) price index + Atlanta's Fed Q2 estimated GDP
    LOL - Imagine that it were Biden who was handed a roaring stock market and within months had produced a correction, one expressly tied to his policies. Would the OP be ignoring that and handing him credit for 2 1/2 years of FED policy? And utterly focused on a few benign, likely premature, inflation prints?
  • The PCE(personal consumption expenditures) price index + Atlanta's Fed Q2 estimated GDP
    Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders' recent article asks the question:
    "Complation"…Is there too much complacency regarding inflation?
    "The rub is that much of the economic data outside of direct inflation readings suggest higher inflation ahead. Both key purchasing managers indexes (PMIs)—the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and S&P Global—show that output prices have jumped to levels akin to the early part of the pandemic. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) survey is also showing that a higher-than-average number of small businesses are raising prices, or plan to. Many high-profile larger companies have announced price increases as well—including Walmart, Macy's, Proctor & Gamble, Ford, Subaru, Volvo, Volkswagen, Mitsubishi, Mattel, Adidas, Ralph Lauren, Stanley Black & Decker, Best Buy, Microsoft, and Nintendo."
    "What's also notable is the still-wide gap between the discretionary ("wants") and non-discretionary ("needs") components of the CPI. As shown below, although there has been some convergence between the two, needs' prices are running at about twice the level of wants' prices; disproportionately hurting lower-income consumers."
    https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/whats-going-onwith-inflation
    I wonder how many companies are opting to slowly boil that frog, by quietly and incrementally raising prices, without actually saying anything. To draw no attention to themselves.
    Cherry-picked stats by the OP are not to be taken seriously. Best to be used as a springboard to highlight the total inanity of the circumstances. And an opportunity to set the record straight. A chart of the S&P for the past 2 1/2 years tells an interesting story. 25% back-to-back gains until a wall was hit. That wall was Trump's policies. as soon as he backed off, the market responded positively, still only up 3-4% YTD, instead of 10-15% the trend was implying we should have.
    The market wants to surge and he won't let it. He wants loose FED policy, tantamount to stimulus, to cover for his trade/tariff failures. If his policies were working, they would not need artificial help. Mr Market would be running with it.
    There is zero historical evidence that even aggressive FED policy calms inflation in months. What we are witnessing is the results of more than two years of FED policy decisions. And someone trying to steal credit for that, while attacking the architect. Biden had two years of the highest FED fund rates in decades and wasn't whining about the hand he was dealt. Instead we had +50% cumulative S&P gains.
    The only thing different, and holding the market back, is current trade policy and all the underlying chaos in the disjointed messaging. This guy was handed a roaring economy and is squandering it. Many of the business leaders who supported him are now distancing themselves and hoping for relief.
  • Where To Invest Now?
    This recent episode of The Meb Faber Show is better than average. Faber’s guests are Rob Arnott, founder and Chairman of the board of Research Affiliates, and Campbell Harvey, Head of Research at Research Affiliates and Professor of Finance at the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University.
    The issue being discussed is: “To what extent are passive inflows into index funds affecting or distorting the markets? “ You won’t find an answer to where to invest now here. But very long term (over 10 years) the guests like small cap and value stocks. I enjoy the show for very late night listening. The casual relaxed approach won’t please everyone.
    (There’s a 90 second commercial for Y Charts at the open that feels like an hour.)
  • Where is the print media hiding the economic stats released earlier today? 26 June, '25
    Making me work for it, eh? lol

    "US Jobless claims declined to 236,000 as continuing claims increased to 1.97 million, the highest since November 2021."
    "Elsewhere, the US merchandise-trade deficit unexpectedly widened in May while imports were little changed, and first-quarter GDP was revised down to -0.5% compared to the second reading of -0.2%."
    For comparison, 1st Q 2024 GDP was tepid at 1.6%. That minus .5% makes last years number look awesome in retrospect. Has anyone told Donald?
    I wouldn't doubt a bigger number for 2nd Q 2025, simply because the threat of tariffs likely pulled forward a lot of spending.
    Something about the statement that 1Q imports "were little changed", baffles me. How can that be, when the story has been early import "hoarding" in the face of coming tariffs? Did order cancellations offset "upfronting" efforts?
  • Vanguard: Important information about your [IRA] checkwriting service
    Hell, we've had three out here in CA for years and years. Not that big a deal.
  • Automobile Cost of Ownership
    DO you think any of these totaled autos are snapped up at bargain prices & sent else where to be fix. When we head deep into TX. , it's not a surprise to see a line of older models heading to Mexico to be fixed.
    A few years back I met a person who bought damaged Mercedes. Once purchased they were sent over seas to be repaired at lower cost & resold. Hard to believe he made his living this way.
  • Magnificent Seven
    Three top large-growth managers discuss the Magnificent Seven
    at the 2025 Morningstar Investment Conference.
    Side Note: In prior years, M* vigorously promoted its annual Investment Conference.
    There didn't seem to be much promotion this year but I may not be part of their target audience.
    https://www.morningstar.com/markets/3-top-fund-managers-whats-next-magnificent-7