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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The Closing Bell: Apple Hits $1 Trillion Mark, Boosts Nasdaq And S&P
    Keep in mind that about 20 years ago, when Apple was hitting bottom, GE was the largest company in the US if not the world. Now GE is in shambles with no end in sight. My, how the tables turn.
  • When to Cut & Run vs When to Double Down
    Only two? Impressive. It appears to take me a dozen bad experiences for my greed to be dope-slapped and become averse or at least avoidant.
    That said, I did hold some recent pharm bomb for years, yet another hindsight-terrible tip from some plutocrat friend, held it to his surprise, and ... it recently jumped up and I sold for a thin profit.
    Probably equaling a percent a year of the holding period.
    But I was made whole, so to speak. Many of those articles on idiot-investor psych apply to me.
  • When to Cut & Run vs When to Double Down
    I doubled and tripled down on a bunch of financial stocks during the GFC (RDN and AXP mostly), made a lot of money and thought I was smart. Then I tried the same with a couple of energy and mining stocks a few years back. With one (BBL) I lost my guts and sold at pretty much the exact bottom (it's since recovered nicely) the other (TDW) I bravely held on all the way to bankruptcy.
    Adding the two experiences together I broke even, more or less. I consider myself lucky to have done no worse and will never try it again.
  • When to Cut & Run vs When to Double Down
    LLJB hit it on the head. Since today’s investors mostly have the attention span and patience of a fruit fly, it’s probably never a good idea. Yep, I’ve done it. Some winners. Some losers. Sometimes a draw.
    Once you start “buying down” there’s no way to know when that asset will turn. You’re reasonably certain it will turn ... But no way to know when. Could be 20 days. Could be 20 years. Having good intuition helps. But still, it can be a long tough slog before you reap a reward.
    Generally, I’d say spread your assets around a bit and sit back and wait. A lot easier on the nerves if nothing else.
  • FMI Third Quarter Report
    @Derf all Long term. I'm not a day trader :-D
    I've ranted about WHEN vs WHAT when it comes to investing. I take profits regularly just like I take losses. I never carry a loss over to next year, so I will take some profit somewhere. I always pay capital gains taxes every year. I'm sure I'm not maximizing my profits on paper in the perfect la-la-land world of buying once, holding for 30 years and paying taxes once in your life. I'm happy with my real world situation regarding capital gains taxes.
  • FMI Third Quarter Report
    @VF Short term or long capital gain ? Just wonder. I'm a firm believer in different strokes for different folks.
    As for paying taxes my father said he didn't mind paying them as long as he had the money to pay !
    As for me I think the taxation has been out of hand for to many years !!
    Good investing to all,
    Derf
  • Chuck Jaffe: How Long Can You Go Without Looking At Your Portfolio?

    Skeet, I'm the same way -- you said it perfectly!! (Though I do some research and place orders on the weekends when things are quiet, every now and then.)
    But, investing is something that I enjoy and during my working years we opened our business most everyday except on holidays and weekends. With this, I open my investment shop most days except holidays and during the summer months where generally I take a gander weekly (reduced hours) but not as often as I do during the investing season (4th & 1st quarters).
    With investing what may be right for one might not be right for others. Do what you feel is best for yourself and discard a lot of what the talking heads preach. My late father taught me if you have not picked up on a trend by the time it's printed in the papers ... Well, son, you are to late getting to the party as the big money has already been made.
  • Barron's Cover Story: The Top Robo Advisors: An Exclusive Ranking
    FYI: Betterment unveiled its automated investing service in 2010. Within a few years, “robo-advisors” were threatening to upend financial services the way that Amazon.com undid retail. Sophisticated algorithms, the promise went, could provide customized portfolios to the masses, at a quarter of the price charged by human advisors.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-top-robo-advisors-an-exclusive-ranking-1532740937?mod=hp_highlight_2
  • WealthTrack Interview: The Shale Oil Revolution
    Related Story...interesting geo-political dynamics when it comes to the production and trade of resources:
    For too long, Russia has enjoyed near-monopoly status as the main supplier of natural gas to our European allies, and wielded that power as a means of political coercion.
    Simply stated, the United States wants to help our partners increase their energy security by increasing the diversity, not only of their supply, but of their suppliers as well.
    energy-secretary-perry-true-energy-independence-is-finally-within-our-grasp
    Forbes Article:
    The U.S. may continue to lead the world in natural gas production for a few more years, but the level of proved natural gas reserves implies that our lead could be short-lived.
    The Middle East's proved natural gas reserves at the end of 2017 were 2.8 quadrillion cubic feet, nearly ten times U.S. proved reserves of 309 trillion cubic feet. For perspective, U.S. proved reserves are only 4.5% of the global total.
    Russia has more proved natural gas reserves than any other country with 1.23 quadrillion cubic feet, followed by Iran with 1.17 quadrillion cubic feet. Total proved natural gas reserves at the end of 2017 were enough to satisfy 2017 global production rates for 52.6 years.
    the-u-s-is-still-the-global-natural-gas-king
  • Chuck Jaffe: How Long Can You Go Without Looking At Your Portfolio?
    Hello, Being an active retail investor I tabulate my portfolio's value on most market days. In this way I get a feel for what's moving and what's not. In addition, I update my market barometer weekly as I use it as an aid to help determine the better times to buy. Generally, I hold my positions for a good number of years with a few that I move in an out of as I feel warranted to tweak my equity allocation.
    I can understand a passive investor looking at their stuff monthly or quarterly. But, investing is something that I enjoy and during my working years we opened our business most everyday except on holidays and weekends. With this, I open my investment shop most days except holidays and during the summer months where generally I take a gander weekly (reduced hours) but not as often as I do during the investing season (4th & 1st quarters). These are the two quarters that my portfolio has the stronger returns and where I generally make most of my money. However, I have found that stocks often go soft during the summer months and sometimes if the stars are aligned to my fancy, I'll do some buying as I did back in June (around the edges of course).
    With investing what may be right for one might not be right for others. Do what you feel is best for yourself and discard a lot of what the talking heads preach. My late father taught me if you have not picked up on a trend by the time it's printed in the papers ... Well, son, you are to late getting to the party as the big money has already been made. This still pretty much still rings true today. This is why I watch my stuff closely looking for trends to put new money to work. And, at times letting some stuff go in the process. Although, the turnover ratio on some of my funds is pretty high and Morningstar estimates overall my mutual fund managers (on average) turn their positions every 24 months ... my average turnover computes to years.
    By the way, turnover is the measure of how often an investor (or trader) buys and sells.
  • PRBLX finally dumps WFC
    Another parallel to WFC is VW, which deliberately cheated on emissions tests for its diesel engines to skirt regulations and sell more cars. The cheating at VW started at the top and was very intentional. I own a VW Golf (although not a diesel), and it’s been a fantastic car. All things else being equal, I would like to buy a Golf Sportwagen for my next car but can’t get past the whole emissions scandal. I worked most of my career in environmental protection and what VW did was unconscionable to me. I plan to keep my VW another year or so, but will probably replace it with a Honda, even though I like the VW better. My wife and I have owned a number of Hondas over the years, and my Golf has been just as reliable and it’s much more fun to drive. Resale value sucks, however, compared to Honda — a situation that hasn’t been helped by the scandal.
  • Chuck Jaffe: How Long Can You Go Without Looking At Your Portfolio?
    In my case there is no correlation between how many times a week I look and when I sell. It's just like looking at baseball scores. It's fun and involving. When I was 7 years old I was sooooo into knowing the latest numbers and rankings in both the National League and American League. My fave team was in the National League but I kept tabs on the other teams there *and* even in the other league. Each summer day I consulted the One Important Page of the local paper (when I could find one, as I lacked the coin to buy one). This did not encourage or precipitate any further action on my part. I wanted to know because I wanted to know. As a senior now, many decades later, my checking the state of my investments is very much the same.
    Sometimes this has precipitated a buy.
    Buy low/ sell high is of course the sensible approach. If I have contemplated buying shares of a particular fund — including shares of a fund I already own — how will I know the NAV has fallen to a level I consider "low" if I don't have a look? But, except for my first year of investing back in the previous century, I have never sold shares of a fund because of market fluctuations. I have sold because of changes in how the fund is run, because I needed money for something else, because a particular investment is no longer needed or appropriate, and in one instance because of how a fund manager was responding to a market dip. I cannot see a correlation between my selling and the few minutes spent most weekdays having a look at the "score". My initial buys were done after doing hours of research. After that I leave it to the fund manager to take action. S/he is far more qualified than I am.
  • Chuck Jaffe: How Long Can You Go Without Looking At Your Portfolio?
    I’m glad my medical doctors don’t subscribe to the don’t look school of medicine. Would have been dead many years ago. :)
  • Chuck Jaffe: How Long Can You Go Without Looking At Your Portfolio?
    I look at and take action from time to time on those assets in individual stocks, MFs, and ETFS that I manage myself. However, my retirement portfolio I touch only after consulting with my TIAA advisor, usually once per year. I could look at the latter daily, but don't; the other positions I monitor M-F because it's one of my hobbies. I'm aware of the contradictions and absurdities of my situation. If you asked me if I was a long-term investor, I'd say yes, but that I check on Asian markets and futures early every day. I've been doing this for more than 25 years, so I guess it is for the long term.
  • Chuck Jaffe: How Long Can You Go Without Looking At Your Portfolio?
    Umm ... What aspect of a portfolio?
    I’m reminded of Patrick Henry’s “I have but one lamp by which my feet are guided”. That is that I want to be as disconnected from the major indexes as possible. I take roughly 30 seconds most weekdays to pull-up my financial app and compare my portfolio’s daily change with some other barometers. Up / down matters little. What I want (at 20+ years into retirement) is low volatility. Friday was a pretty typical day. My portfolio lost 0.03%. (That’s a bit overstated because it doesn’t include interest/dividends which accrue daily on many holdings.).
    Some other baramoters Friday:
    TRBCX -1.13%
    KCMTX -0.96%
    DSENX -0.68%
    VFINX -0.66%
    TRRIX -0.06%
    Split Benchmark* +0.01%
    * My combined split benchmark = 50% TRRIX and 50% RPSIX
    Readers will note from the benchmark that aspirations for growth are very subdued. Hey - I’m 72 and have already lived longer than I deserved based on earlier lifestyle. Why push the envelope and reach for return?
    I use a great (subscription based) app from Apple. Takes one-click and 30 seconds (or less) to view the relative daily volatility. Aside from that one measure, I could care less. Might spot-check YTD (at Lipper) on 5 or 6 funds once every month or so - purely out of curiosity.
    Disclaimer: I am not qualified to give investment advice. I make no recommendations to others. One size does not fit all.
  • PRBLX finally dumps WFC
    My reason for dumping PRBLX years ago was because WFC clearly had major issues with the 'G'(overnance) in the Parnassus ESG investing framework, yet the fund kept the #1 holding for years as the various scandals piled up. Although I could care less about ESG ratings frankly[1] ... and gods know I own enough 'sin' stocks anyway. Rather, I like the composition of PRBLX and think it's a great blended fund that marches to its own drummer[2]... but it needed to dump WFC to live up to its self-proclaimed ESG mandate, imo. (or change their mandate)
    I'm recently back in PRBLX for my Roth IRA, btw.
    [1] It's why I bought VMVFX early on. I could care less about 'minimum volatility' in the name but upon closer inspection the fund is a nifty world stock fund that has (to me) a great allocation and fits nicely into what I wanted in my portfolio.
    [2] It's also why I like PRGTX. It's a tech fund but it holds few if any of the 'usual suspects' in the space (ie, the FANGS, etc.) and does its own thing.
  • moving, retirement planning
    My recent mantra for portfolio review is changing from "Core and Explore" to "Core and Income". Core is low cost, well diversified and simple. Income is high quality, diversified, and uncorrelated to the market (my core). Explore is a small percentage of an overall portfolio that may or may not pan out as an investment idea.
    Buffet's core is 90% S&P 500 Index / 10% ST Bonds...no explore here. The 90% of his Core is for growth and 10% for income during market downturns. Your income needs maybe greater than 10%, especially if your portfolio is small and market downturns last multiple years.
    It's a math problem.
    Say you need $1K of income each year:
    10% of 10K is $1K, but if the market downturn last 3-5 years you need $3K-$5K or 30%-50% held as income because this portfolio is so small.
    10% of $100K is $10K...you have the luxury of increasing you income up to $3K ($3K X 3 years) is less than the $10K you have set aside which is also still less than 10%.
    10% of $1,000,000 is $100K...this would provide $30K for 3 years...$20K for 5 years...without having to touch your core.
    Your income needs over a 3-5 year period should drive your income portfolio percentage.
    So, working backwards if you need $20K of income and your portfolio is $500k Using Buffets 90/10 portfolio as a guideline you would have to tweak it to 88/12:
    $20K x 3 years = $60K/$500k = 12% of portfolio (88/12)
    $20K X 5 years = $100K/$500? = 20% of portfolio (80/20)
    Second point, we explore too much...it's exciting, but not always profitable or practical.
    Do you consider MAPOX / PRWCX your core (55% of your portfolio)
    Do you consider PTIAX as income (Buffet's ST Bond) your at 4%.
    Ask yourself, how do these other funds fit into a "Core & Income" portfolio?
    Worry about "Explore" later.
    Age difference between you and your spouse:
    If TRP offerings simplify things for you, look at their Retirement Funds. Very inexpensive, very diversified. Very simple. PRWCX would compare well with a TRP retirement date of 2040 so I also can see this being your core, but at 36% its hardily "at bat" much. Maybe Pair PRWCX with 2 retirement different dated funds that reflect the age difference between you and your wife's ages. This would provide you with 3 core funds. When your 90 & your wife is 70, these retirement date funds will have transitioned with age as well.
    Finally,
    Manager risk is real. Institution risk is real.
    Some here would spread this core out among managers and among institutions.
  • Marsico Flexible Capital Fund reorganization
    "Marsico funds are not doing well since Tom Marsico left Janus."
    That would be the entire lifetime of Marsico funds :-)
    Actually they did do well for some time. After ten years (end of 2007), MGRIX had averaged 9.18% and MFOCX had averaged 9.64%. In comparison, VIGRX had averaged 5.12% and its LCG benchmark had averaged 5.21%. (The other Marsico funds are younger.)
    Marsico Funds prospectus, Feb 2008 (w/2007 figures): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1047112/000094822108000010/marsico_485bpos-020108.htm
    Vanguard Index Funds prospectus, April 2008 (w/2007 figures): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/36405/000093247108001124/indexfunds485bfiling4292008.txt
    The family had lots of problems after that, including debt and staff (management/analyst) turnover. From M* Oct 2012:
    As Marsico Capital Management struggled with poor performance, outflows, and its own debt-laden balance sheet, Flexible Capital's Doug Rao used the fund's wide-ranging strategy to good effect. ... Unfortunately,... In July 2012 Rao left the firm and the fund. It's now comanaged by Munish Malhotra, who has a short mixed record at other Marsico funds he's helped run, and Jordan Laycob, who hasn't led a fund before. Furthermore, there has been a lot of turnover among the firm's analysts and the fund's fees are high.
    http://srt.morningstar.com/newsp/cmsAcontent.html?t=LMVTX&resourceId=570104&src=Morningstar&date=10-11-2012
  • PRBLX finally dumps WFC
    All good questions. I know for myself what are the levels of egregiousness, or I think and say I do, but they would not be others', perhaps. I left Parnassus over WFC, and Herro (Oakmark) as well, when he denounced global warming a year or two ago. And now I don't know what to think summers will be like globally in 2 and 5 and 7 years, much less 10-20-30 years and beyond.
  • T. Rowe Price Fund Stays Top Notch With Blue Chip Stocks: (TRBCX)
    FYI: (The Linkster holds a position in TRBCX.)
    True to its name, $57 billion T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth (TRBCX) focuses on blue chip stocks. More often than not, the fund gets blue-ribbon results. That makes it a standout among T. Rowe Price funds.
    And in the last five years going into Thursday, the fund has outperformed 96% of its large-cap growth rivals industrywide tracked by Morningstar Inc. So far this year, it's 18.93% gain tops 85% of its peers as well as the S&P 500's 7.58% increase. That's also one of the best showings among T. Rowe Price funds.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/mutual-funds/t-rowe-price-fund-wins-with-blue-chip-stocks/
    TRBCX Is Ranked #1 In The (LCG) Fund Category By U.S. News & World Report:
    https://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/large-growth/t-rowe-price-blue-chip-growth-fund/trbcx