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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Oberweis International Opportunities Fund closing to new investors
    @LewisBraham... luckily I didn't own the fund then but using 2008 as the basis of your comment misses how they dealt with those losses. As Dr. Snowball reported in his 2013 review of the fund, "Indeed, OBIOX in 2013 isn’t even the OBIOX of 2009. During the 2007-09 market trauma, OBIOX suffered a 69.7% drop, well worse than their peers’ 57.7% decline. The manager was deeply dissatisfied with that performance and took concrete steps to strengthen his risk management disciplines. OBIOX is a distinctive fund and seems to have grown stronger."
    That's not to suggest it can't still perform poorly but if you look at the upside and downside capture ratios over the last 3 and 5 years, they've done pretty well. To your point, the last 12 months haven't been great, but if you can deal with the volatility then the results over time have rewarded you with good risk adjusted returns.
    One of the things that amazes me is the tax efficiency. It's a very high turnover fund, higher than I prefer by a lot, and M*'s tax cost ratio is very low. I haven't figured out exactly how they manage that based on the available information and I don't always trust M*'s numbers to tell me what I think they're telling me, but in absolute terms it's an impressive ratio that seems inconsistent with their turnover.
  • Bill Gross Likes 2 Closed-End Funds, Even As He Says Most Assets Overvalued: DPG & JPC
    @BobC & MFO Members: Bill has recommended several CEF's over the years, none of which, I would invest in.
    Regards,
    Ted
  • Oberweis International Opportunities Fund closing to new investors
    The language here is very strange. It reads like this is a hard close except for retirement accounts but it seems to include retail IRAs. It also includes advisor managed accounts but only for rebalancing. Am I reading that incorrectly? Do they really expect Fido or Schwab, E*TRADE or TD to block taxable accounts and allow IRAs? Maybe they have that capability but I don't think I've ever seen it before. And isn't restricting advisors to rebalancing a wide open door that's almost impossible to police? It means all the advisors and clients who follow rules no matter what will limit themselves while anyone who views rules with more flexibility can do what they want more or less. If the old studies are still accurate that should mean about 10% of advisors wouldn't consider being more flexible.
    I own the fund in a rollover IRA for years and I've been a very happy camper. I just hope they'll let me continue to buy and sell as I desire.
  • Bill Gross Likes 2 Closed-End Funds, Even As He Says Most Assets Overvalued: DPG & JPC
    Hmmm...We should buy these closed end funds who are running discounts which if were wiped out would actually have returned positive returns for the years. Both are negative right now.
    So this is like someone saying P/E ratio is low, but stock keeps sucking wind and we are supposed to buy "value". I really don't see it differently at all.
  • Artisan Global Discovery Fund in registration
    VF is right on. Mark Hockey's record is spotty in recent years. Left the International fund before 2004 when more suitable substitutes became available. Also the above average ER is ridiculous.
  • How to determine a fund's tax efficiency?
    Morningstar's pages have a tab called "tax", which shows you the "tax cost ratio". For example, here's FCNTX 's tax page:
    http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/tax-analysis.action?t=FCNTX
    This calculation is but one way of representing tax efficiency. This one tells you what percentage of your investment went to pay taxes. Here's M*'s brief description:
    http://www.morningstar.com/InvGlossary/tax_cost_ratio.aspx
    Note that most sites (and all prospectuses) use the highest tax rates in computing tax efficiency. If you're in a lower bracket, and especially if you're in a 15% or lower bracket (where qualified divs and long term cap gains get taxed at 0%), you'll want to take the figures with a grain of salt.
    There's also an oddity in how mutual funds handle cap gains. If they have net gains, they distribute them to you, just as if you'd owned the portfolio and bought and sold it yourself. But if they have net losses, they are not allowed to distribute them to you. The losses accrue (accumulate), and next year, or the year after, or ... whenever they have a net gain, they can use those accrued losses to reduce the gains distributed.
    This has the effect of distorting tax cost figures. After the market swoons (e.g. 2008), pretty much everyone has large losses accrued. So for the next few years, all funds look tax efficient as they apply those losses against realized gains.
    IMHO turnover should be low enough that the fund isn't generating short term gains (taxed as ordinary income). But so long as the cap gains are long term, it doesn't matter too much. Sooner or later, even with very low turnover, the fund is going to sell appreciated shares. If it's allowed the stock to appreciate a lot, then it will recognize large gains then. Averaged over time, it comes out the same as taking a little at a time.
    Very low turnover (vs. low turnover) helps on the cost side, since trading costs are a big hidden cost in fund ownership. As you noted, you want low costs, whether explicit (in the ER) or implicit, in the trading commissions paid by the fund.
    I pay attention to tax efficiency but I don't obsess over it.
  • Pinnacle Value - PVFIX
    I'd beg to differ, at least slightly, on a few points. Risk does not matter more in absolute terms. You can eliminate almost all risk and get almost no return and that's not really what matters most. Risk matters when you don't have a long enough time horizon to deal with volatility or you don't have enough discipline, which is true of most human beings, to stick with it when things get ugly.
    The problem I have with funds that hold lots of cash, and this fund even more, is that we know the statistics about how hard it is for a manager to overcome his/her expense ratio over time. It seems to me when a manager holds large amounts of cash the hurdle is even higher unless they're good or lucky with their timing.
    Unfortunately there's no evidence that this guy is good or lucky with his timing and he's charging a 'high' expense ratio for the privilege. He did great during the credit crisis and then he plodded along until the S&P caught up with and surpassed him. He ranks in the 72nd percentile of small value funds over 10 years, the 97th percentile over 5 years and the 88th percentile over the last 3 years. Anyone who's psychologically ill-equipped to deal with volatility should be equally ill-equipped to deal with poor performance for so long.
    I don't think there's anything wrong with wanting a smooth ride if you're willing to pay for it and this fund has been very good at that. IMHO, however, the price here is too high.
    Great post! Thanks. Seems for many 2008 still lives on and has severely impacted their returns.
  • Pinnacle Value - PVFIX
    I'd beg to differ, at least slightly, on a few points. Risk does not matter more in absolute terms. You can eliminate almost all risk and get almost no return and that's not really what matters most. Risk matters when you don't have a long enough time horizon to deal with volatility or you don't have enough discipline, which is true of most human beings, to stick with it when things get ugly.
    The problem I have with funds that hold lots of cash, and this fund even more, is that we know the statistics about how hard it is for a manager to overcome his/her expense ratio over time. It seems to me when a manager holds large amounts of cash the hurdle is even higher unless they're good or lucky with their timing.
    Unfortunately there's no evidence that this guy is good or lucky with his timing and he's charging a 'high' expense ratio for the privilege. He did great during the credit crisis and then he plodded along until the S&P caught up with and surpassed him. He ranks in the 72nd percentile of small value funds over 10 years, the 97th percentile over 5 years and the 88th percentile over the last 3 years. Anyone who's psychologically ill-equipped to deal with volatility should be equally ill-equipped to deal with poor performance for so long.
    I don't think there's anything wrong with wanting a smooth ride if you're willing to pay for it and this fund has been very good at that. IMHO, however, the price here is too high.
  • Pinnacle Value - PVFIX
    I own PVFIX as a strategic part of my portfolio, as far as I understand the fund is continuing to perform its expected role in my portfolio. I am adding new funds to PVFIX through recurrent monthly investments. I am trying to resist the temptation to change my strategy due to the continued Bull run.
    Question: Have we learned anything that would change the March 2015 Commentary on PVFIX?
    “By any rational measure, for long-term investors Pinnacle Value is the best small cap value fund in existence.
    There are two assumptions behind that statement:
    1. Returns matter.
    2. Risk matters more.
    The first is self-evident; the second requires just a word of explanation. Part of the explanation is simple math: an investment that falls by 50% must subsequently rise by 100% just to break even. Another part of the explanation comes from behavioral psychology. Investors are psychologically ill-equipped to deal with risk: we hate huge losses and we react irrationally in the face of them but we refuse to believe that they’re going to happen to us, so we rarely act appropriately to mitigate them. In good times we delude ourselves into thinking that we’re not taking on unmanageable risks, then they blow up and we sit for years in cash. The more volatile the asset class, the greater the magnitude of our misbehavior.”
  • Pimco Pulls Out Of Italy As JPMorgan Sees Risk of Autumn Vote
    FYI: Pacific Investment Management Co. said that it has exited all its holdings of Italian bonds on the conviction that the yields were too low to compensate for the nation’s mounting political risks.
    Pimco unwound its investments this year in a move that marks an about-turn for the $1.5 trillion fund, which had the securities among favored choices two years ago. It now maintains a neutral exposure to peripheral European assets. JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Barclays Plc say the odds of Italy facing snap elections as early as autumn have risen, with the U.S. bank predicting an increase in the nation’s bond yields in such a case.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.bloomberg.com//news/articles/2017-06-05/pimco-pulls-out-of-italy-as-jpmorgan-sees-risk-of-autumn-vote
  • Barron's Cover Story: The Surprising Threat To The American Economy
    Discussed this with a recently-retired client. We (our wives and us) simply don't buy clothes the way we used to, and probably will buy even less into retirement. New suits, no. Dress shirts, no. Dress shoes, no. New cars, no. Same goes for many other household things. We just are not shopping nearly as much. If that is true for much of the boomer generation, it helps to explain the pickle in which the big malls find themselves. Instead, the boomers are spending dollars on more meaningful things like travel, concerts, grandkids, volunteering, etc. It's not that we are pulling money out of the stock market (we are not, contrary to what some predictions were 10-15 years ago). We are simply changing our spending habits: spending less overall and for sure not spending as much at the malls. It goes to my comments on my most recent Retirement Blog.
  • M*: 25 Funds Investors Are Dumping
    Keep in mind that much of this is RETAIL money, investors trying to follow whatever trend is hot. I would suggest that more than a few of the funds on this list could have banner years. MALOX is ahead of the S&P 500 ytd. TGBAX is up more than double the gain of VTABX. JPMorgan Core Bond is ahead of VBTLX. At some point, investors will abandon the current "hot" funds and sectors, and move on to something else that has caught the next trend.
    On the other hand, this is not to suggest that more than a few of the funds on this list are in serious trouble, if not on the brink of liquidation. How many times can a fund sustain outflows of more than 50% and survive? WASYX is a case in point. M* numbers are incorrect on it. Current assets are only about $230 million, down from about $1.5 billion just 3.5 years ago. It would appear this one is a goner, for a number of reasons. M* numbers must include privately-managed dollars as well as mutual fund assets for each fund. This being the case, the situation is even more dire for the mutual-fund only assets.
  • Barron's Cover Story: The Surprising Threat To The American Economy
    Definitely paring down the optional stuff except for good whiskey. Jameson 18 years is not on the chopping block.
    Jameson 18 might need to be in consumer staples.
  • Barron's Cover Story: The Surprising Threat To The American Economy
    Definitely paring down the optional stuff except for good whiskey. Jameson 18 years is not on the chopping block.
  • Pinnacle Value - PVFIX
    I have owned PVFIX for many years. My initial investment is approaching "doubling" in the fund. When I first purchased the fund, Mr. Dreysher used to write accompanying articles to PVFIX shareholders, which I haven't seen for some time. Fund is conservative and will not "shoot the lights out" in a bull market, but I don't have to worry about my investment. I don't think the fund has passed $68mm for some time.
    I remember a couple of years ago his number one holding was "Capital Southwest (CSWC)" which I still own today including its spinoff, CSW Inc.
  • Pinnacle Value - PVFIX
    Was just trying to get a sense of what owners of PVFIX are thinking at this time. I know besides me, we at least have 2 more who own this fund.
    Energy and now Financials which seem to be rolling over has what kept this fund down. While over 40% of the fund is in cash, as per the latest information available, almost 70% is in Energy and Financials. I have always maintained it is silly to run out in the rain to find a narrow break in the clouds so you can stand with rain falling all around you but not on you. Relative Value, Absolute Value, whatever, no one can get it right if the sector is suffering. Can't expect miracles from the manager.
    This fund has been good to me. I've taken lot of money out over the years in distributions and I'm still above my cost basis. I've been waiting to send money to it, but have refrained from doing so. My long term holds, I always do my ANALysis to see which parts of markets I think are doing well, but when I'm too wimpy to act on my conclusions, I take look at my funds to see who owns those parts of the market and send some money to those funds. Right now, that means *not* sending money to PVFIX, until XLE and XLF show some promise.
    Would appreciate any thoughts on PVFIX from current or prospective owners.
  • David Snowball's June Commentary Is Now Available
    Wonder how CEF commissions work. Like stocks and ETFs perhaps? Thinking not though.
    Have been looking at purchasing CEF (yeah that is a CEF) for years but never did, and now SOR looking good.
  • Consuelo Mack's WealthTrack Encore Episode: Guest: Bill Miller, Manager, Miller Funds
    You'd think Consuelo could take a break from interviewing Bill Miller, this is turning into a yearly interview. Beat the S&P 15 years in a row and then the fund tanked hard. I couldn't see why anyone would invest in his funds now. Maybe a lot of the other fund managers just deny her request for an interview.
  • Gett'in another wagon to haul the money; and what about those pesky bond yields, eh?
    Saturday morn'in to you,
    So, a tiny bit on the "tongue in cheek" side of life; although reality tends to sneak in when we're not paying attention, eh?
    Not too low on coffee this AM; but must get outside, as Michigan weather is glorious right now for most of the state, so a few quick notes or observations.
    So, not much to add about the equity sector, eh? Ya'll are watching what you choose to see for returns YTD for your particular holdings. Exceptions being the commodities areas which are not having as much fun right now. I noted a few days ago about the below "bold" and the so-called defensive area equities moving up more than some other equity sectors. These have not sold back to end the week (Friday, June 2 closing values).
    Sector summary
    Sector Change % down / up
    Energy -0.81%
    Basic Materials +0.14%
    Industrials +0.50%
    Cyclical Cons. Goods ... +0.27%
    Non-Cyclical Cons. Goods... +0.75%
    Financials +0.19%
    Healthcare +0.74%
    Technology +1.02%
    Telecommunications Ser... +0.17%
    Utilities +0.02%
    As to those pesky low bond yields. Well, we know lower yields = higher prices, and so a bit of money is being made here, too. The 10 year Treasury yield closed at 2.16% and the 30 year closed at 2.81% this week (list below, including shorter term yields and price moves for Friday, June 2.
    These 3 etf's and closing percentage up for the week ending Friday, June 2.
    LQD +0.8%
    IEF +0.7%
    EDV +2.7%
    Yields as of June 2.
    3 Month 0.95% +0.01 (1.06%)
    6 Month 1.03% +0.01 (0.98%)
    2 Year 1.29% +0.01 (0.78%)
    5 Year 1.72% 0.00 (0.00%)
    10 Year 2.16% -0.01 (-0.46%)
    30 Year 2.81% -0.02 (-0.71%)
    This link from Jan. 26, 2004 through June 2, 2017 is for "yield" not pricing. So, I'm sitting here looking at this chart and wondering if that 2 year yield path has any meaning relative to the 10 and 30 year yields, based upon prior years. Should this chart be showing me anything about short term rates and how they moved in early 2008 or any other periods that are of value today?
    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?$UST2Y,$UST10Y,$UST30Y&n=3334&O=011000
    What could be a meaningful summary of all the above? IF the equity players decide to "take the money and run"; one can imagine a move into the "safe havens", eh? Who is to say that such a move would not find the 10 year yield at .5% and the 30 year at 1.1%. These yields are still attractive relative to Japan and the Eurozone, yes?
    Global 10 year yields
    The marketplace is re-balancing our portfolio from a 60/40 equity/bond to a +70/30 and we're letting it ride; hoping to get out of the way if needed.
    Well, we still live in interesting times; don't you agree?
    Have a pleasant remainder.....
    Catch
  • Consuelo Mack's WealthTrack Encore Episode: Guest: Bill Miller, Manager, Miller Funds
    FYI: Bill Miller remains the only mutual fund manager in memory to beat the S&P 500 fifteen years in a row. He did it while he was managing Legg Mason Capital Management Value Trust from 1991-2005. After a couple of episodes of serious underperformance in 2006-2008 and 2010-2011 Miller left the fund and in 2016 left Legg Mason to launch his own independent investment advisory firm, Miller Value Partners.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://wealthtrack.com/miller-hedge-fund-timing/?action=edit
    M* Snapshot LGOAX:
    http://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/lgoax/quote.html
    M* Snapshot LMCJX:
    http://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/lmcjx/quote.html