FYI: Most American couples feel their financial health is in good to excellent shape, according to the Fidelity Investments Couples & Money study released Tuesday.
The strong economy of the last few years may be the reason 47 percent of those surveyed said their household’s financial health is very good and another 22 percent went even further to say it is excellent.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/couples-say-they-re-feeling-good-about-their-finances-39431.html?print

-- June 25, Monday 10pm
-China related equity getting the big slap again (their opening markets).
-Global overall still holding the barf bag and filling same.
-U.S. equity closes today find utils/telecom/con. staples positive, a very short list.
-The big winners for the past few years are naturally taking the hits...tech.; health along with large cap growth in general. Y'all knew getting d'FANGED would affect many areas, yes?
-Real estate a bit negative, too
***In particular, with a view towards the above is that U.S. Treasury issues, 10 and 30 year are not getting much positive action.
So, we don't have a scared to death market yet, eh?
Profit taking only. If so, where is the rotation moving towards?
Too many questions still without a good guideline.
Feel free to add to the list, either negative or positive.
Good night.
Catch

PenFed CU 7-year CD at 3.1%. I've gone 10 years before on a zero-coupon bond, but 3.1% seems like shooting yourself in the foot--- locking in a low rate of return for THAT l-o-n-g.
https://www.penfed.org/accounts/certificates-overview

Amex bumped from 1.65 to 1.75.
By the way, Prestige CU in Dallas has a 3% Checking Account IFF...
...Direct Deposit >$400 per month
...15 transactions per month
You can collect 3% on balances upto $15,000. I did this once with another bank that merged away couple of years back. Was getting 2.0%. Seemed too much of a pain. But, if you have the time...
http://prestigecu.org

FYI: This business expansion has gone on for nine years and most investors think we have to be near the end. In baseball parlance you hear talk that we are in the seventh or eighth inning; nobody seems to believe we are in the second or third. Jamie Dimon of J.P. Morgan has said at a conference we’re in the sixth, which got a lot of attention. Those who are cautious on the outlook talk about how corporate cash flows will be inadequate to service long-term debt obligations. They also raise macro issues like the large U.S. budget deficit, declining American competitiveness, worsening relationships with our trading partners, Middle East instability, a slowdown in Europe, difficult 2019 earnings comparisons and displacement of white collar employees by artificial intelligence.
We believe that the current business cycle has at least several more years left to run. The major signs that would herald the beginning of the next recession are not yet in place. Unemployment is low and likely to decline further; wages are rising, but not sharply; the Federal Reserve is tightening, but real interest rates are zero; inflation is moving higher slowly; the yield curve is not inverted; profits are increasing; and the leading indicators are still rising. Until some of these indicators change, the expansion is likely to continue.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2018/06/22/us_equities_are_priced_for_positive_resolution_of_global_spats_103324.html

That didn't come out right.
My point is If anyone bought say QLENX 3 years back, she has no trouble holding onto it for the "long term". If one bought it in Jan, it is hard to hold on to it.
Easy to criticize investors for "buying high and selling low". At "opportune" times, i.e. never in a bear market but after bull market has recovered we keep seeing articles "only if investors had held onto..." etc. etc. As if investors never EVER sell a fund at the right time. As if funds NEVER break, and then go down.
WTF did I hold on to HSGFX? Because I bought it early. Was that a good decision. No? I held on for the long term didn't I? OTOH if anyone bought Hussman 5 years back and sold it in 6 months he came out ahead. Then my investment in TFS funds. I held on for long time. What happened? Before they could turn around, they simply folded. SEEDX anyone? How many people held on SEEDX for the "Long Term"?
Regarding OTCRX, I'm able to "hold on" because of WHEN I bought it. It's easy when portfolio shows positive returns for a fund. Not otherwise.
My point. WHEN you buy, and sell, is important. MUCH more important than which fund you buy. "Long Term" is bullshit and term coined solely to make sure enough foolish assets stay with the firm so they can continue to rake in fees.
EDIT: Let's see how many SFGIX holders hold on for "long term" if they purchased YTD. What I know is if $ goes up / E goes down, I'm going to buy ARTYX, ARTZX and then trade them. Long Term can kiss my a**.

While I've not played w/the Monte Carlo simulations, that site is very helpful -- been a fan of it for years ... it's a great resource!!

HOBEX yield is 3%. RPHYX is 2.3%. RSIVX is 5%. And VMMXX is a "risk free" 2.0%.
I am all bonded out. So not buying HOBEX or ZEOIX for that matter. If interest rates keep rising VMMXX will keep up with it. Just does not make sense to me to go further out to make an extra % and risk a break. Wish such funds were available 3 years back.

Junkster: I'm guessing you hold HOBIX ?
Derf

Correct. I corrected that in my post thanks. Very small position for now. Slim pickings in the current bond environment besides the non agencies. Money market funds at Fidelity now over 2% and rising with CDs even higher would more than fund my retirement. I wonder sometimes why I just don’t camp out there until the next junk corporate or muni junk bond debacle. My best years seem to come after such debacles.

FYI:
Regards,
Ted
June 21, 2018
Dear WEALTHTRACK Subscriber,
We are celebrating the launch of our Fifteenth Season on Public Television this week! Talk about long-term investing. We are delighted that you are here to share it with us.
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If you miss the premiere show of our new season on air this week, you can always watch it on our website. It’s available to our PREMIUM viewers right now and to everyone else over the weekend. We also have an EXTRA interview with Asness about his research on a seldom used but highly effective ice hockey strategy that has investment applications.
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Thank you so much for watching. Have a great weekend and make the week ahead a profitable and a productive one!
Best regards,
Consuelo
Video Clip:

First of all let me thank Lewis for writing the article since I was able to read it through Ted's posting a link to it.
I compared the junk bond fund LBNDX that I currently own against the author's choice of DSIAX. At times, LBNDX edges out DSIAX and at other time periods DSIAX edges out LBNDX. To me, they are both good funds and I plan on keeping LBNDX. However, from past articles that Lewis has written I have gained some insight that I would not otherwise have. Most of these article links were posted by Ted.
I understand how Lewis might feel about his article being posted on the board for many of us to read without paying for its reading through subscription based media. However, it is available through a Google search which Ted posted. I don't fault Lewis for his feelings and I don't fault Ted for posting the Google link to the article. Fellows ... it's the system, in general, that's at fault. If the system would not allow Ted the ability to post the article then it would not be here. Some may feel otherwise and that is ok by me.
Lewis, I am sorry you feel short changed and I think I understand how you feel. But, in my many years on the board there has been a "spirit of goodwill" abounding among us Fund Alarm and MFO members of helping each other with our investing endeavors. Please know both you and Ted have helped me and I thank you both. Also, I hold both of you in high regard and, to me, both of you stand in "good light." I'm thinking if this bickering continues it has a good chance of destroying the board as I trend to avoid most post I feel might contain it (bickering). My reading of this post was an exception; and, I felt it important to express my feelings.
Peace be with you both and others as well.
Old_Skeet

I’ve also shifted 10% of the total assets in our 401K plans into the stable value fund. It’s currently yielding about 2% and it’s been rising. It has actually outperformed the bond index fund in our 401K plan over the past 1,3 and 5 years. If you have a 401K, this is a great option during the current market.

Did not sell much past yr, some Corp bonds just matured and gain capitals back to buy more Corp bonds.
For taxes the boa or schwab just send us 1099misc and its pretty simple to do w turbotax and automatically filled
Will look at the performance little later on

Tax treatment of bonds, even vanilla ones, is pretty complex. My impression is that nearly everyone gets it wrong. I've a relative who, a few years ago, went to a lawyer (don't ask) to have the relatively straightforward tax return prepared. Even this lawyer made a common error in her handling of market premium of a muni bond (not discussed below - special rules for munis).
The good news is that the brokerages (actually the clearing brokerages) seem to have gotten much better in providing accurate information in the past couple of years. At least that's my experience.
You might buy a bond on the secondary market at less than face (par) value, i.e. at a discount. At maturity, you get the par value. The way this is treated is that each year, it is as though you received interest, i.e. the interest "accrues". At maturity, the total accrual equals your "gain". But you must declare this accrual as interest, not cap gains. (You have the option of declaring the interest annually, but by default it's declared all at once, at maturity.)
You might buy a bond on the secondary market above face value, i.e. at a premium. You may choose to amortize this premium. That means that each year, a little piece of the interest you receive is a partial return of the premium. So when the bond matures, there's no premium left to claim and no capital loss. But each year, since some of the "interest" you received was just return of principal, only part of the interest was taxed. If you don't amortize, then you get to take the capital loss at maturity. Simpler, but from a tax perspective worse, since reducing taxable interest is more valuable than taking a capital loss.
It gets even more complicated when there's original issue discount (OID) involved. Or it can be very simple if you just buy retail Corporate Notes at par and hold them until maturity.
Generally speaking, you should receive1099-INTs along the way (for interest payments), a 1099-B when you sell (automatic at maturity), and possibly 1099-OIDs. I haven't dealt with the latter, since I invest in munis where you don't get these. I don't know when a 1099-MISC would be issued for a bond.
Assuming you're holding to maturity, the easiest way to figure out your return is to look at your purchase confirmation. That should show the yield to maturity. That's the effective yield you get every year, after taking into account discounts, premiums, and coupons.
Here's a good IRS FAQ page. Questions 7 and 8 explain what I wrote above regarding market discount. Questions 9 and 10 explain what I wrote above regarding market premium. The fact that there are so many other questions is a clue that things can be even a lot more complicated.
https://www.irs.gov/businesses/small-businesses-self-employed/cost-basis-reporting-faqs

@johnN
"For taxes the boa or schwab just send us 1099misc and its pretty simple to do w turbotax"
>>>Then, you do know your return from these private bonds, yes?
My question is directed at the private bonds you have been buying over the years; not integrated bond funds in indexes or active funds.
I'll leave this be, as is....too busy here now to pursue.

@johnN
You noted: "I (just like many investors ) blindly 'autopilot' and keep on buying private Corp bonds stocks without really calculate their true performances...."
HUH???
You don't know the performance over your years of buys/sells with these bonds?
How do you report taxes upon the sale???
Or do you not yet have any sells?

Stupid question number one. How can the prospect of rising rates with falling bond prices be better for a diversified (sic) portfolio than cash instead that does not drop in price?
I wonder who it was 30 years back when interest rates were quite high and proclaimed the "bond bull market is over". I'm willing to bet it was someone related to Merrill and Lynch.

Over 300 years I think...

How does it matter? Millenials are stupid. Just like their parent's before them. The parents were also asked same question. And they also couldn't answer those questions. I am trying to recollect by what name they called the parents. I think it was something like, "Poor Customer".
Hey Mass Mutual why are your Life Insurance rates so high? Millenials are asking. Their parents too!
Here's another. With a simple interest of 0.03% on our bank accounts, how many years of interest compounded will it take to yield 10% return? Can you please ask this question to yourself? Millenials are busy trying to figure out how to pay off their student loans.

Very busy at this house; but take a bit of time to catch this or that for the markets.
The tariff wars (pending or otherwise) are receiving the threats from other countries; as in, "okay, slam a tariff; we'll play the game" and await you "crying uncle".
So, we have Canada, Mexico, EU, India and China as the major announcers OF "tariffs to you", too.
SP-500, to use as a U.S. gauge, is so-so YTD; and one knows a lot of this gain is from the better performing sectors, tech., health, con. discretionary...............so, if these areas start to go to heck; well others suffer, too.
One finds the global today (June 18) not being very happy, not a trend yet, eh?
https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/etf-monitor?orderBy=percentChange&orderDir=desc
I'll provide a flash back from 10 years ago (June 16, 2008, Monday).
Our portfolio had its high value point on Oct. 31, 2007 (Halloween Day). International holdings had begun to become more erratic, but most U.S. equity was still fairly happy.
News, data and related going into the end of 2007, especially in Dec. 2007 kept my attention. We watched an erratic equity market for another 6 months; along with the news and data. December of 2007 had very large swings in daily equity.
On June 16, 2008, Monday; we sold 87% of our portfolio.
An existing bond fund holding was kept in place, PTTRX . The equity sells monies were moved into either "stable value" or money market, depending upon the choices at the time. During this period, both stable value and MM were yielding about 5% APR.
With a smile and a head shake I thought about the date this past weekend and being 10 years out from June, 2008.
Currently, we're 51% equity, 95% which is U.S.; all being in tech. and healthcare.
We'll be watching this week more so, as time allows.
Good fortune to all,
Catch

Almost always, the brokerage/fund company will treat covered and non-covered shares as separate batches of funds - as though they were completely different funds. So we can consider the treatment of non-covered shares alone. Those are the shares that I think you're concerned with in your question.
The very short answer may be #2 below: you keep track of costs yourself. The broker/fund company doesn't report non-covered share costs to the IRS.
The rules really haven't changed for non-covered shares with the advent of covered shares. (Except that one can no longer use average cost, double category. Don't worry about that; it was very obscure.)
1) Once you sell any non-covered shares using average cost, you're stuck with average cost for all your non-covered shares. (The covered shares are handled as a separate batch, so they're not affected by this.)
2) It is your responsibility to keep track of each share's cost. Your monthly statement or trade confirmation has this information. Vanguard writes: "For noncovered shares, Vanguard only has average cost information, so you're responsible for your recordkeeping if you used another method."
3) If you don't tell the broker/fund which shares you're selling, you're automatically selling the oldest ones first. (This is true even if you're using average cost, it's just that all the shares, oldest or newest, are treated as though they cost the same.)
4) If you tell the broker/fund which shares you're selling when you sell the shares and they acknowledge your notification, then you can select different shares to sell. It only has to acknowledge which shares you're selling, not the cost you're using.
For example, say you've got one lot of 100 shares you bought on 1/2/2010 @$10, and another lot of 100 shares you bought on 1/2/2012 @$20. (You might also have some covered shares.)
If you tell the broker/fund to sell the shares bought on 1/2/2012, and the broker/fund acknowledges this (some will, some won't), then you've sold those shares with a total cost basis of $2,000 (100 x $20). You still have the 1/2/2010 shares to sell later.
One of the reasons why I prefer Fidelity is that their online system has accepted (and acknowledged) specific share identifications for many years. I also have shares at fund families where they refuse to acknowledge anything about non-covered shares. So then I'm stuck with the oldest shares being sold. I either use average cost or my own records for the actual cost of those oldest shares sold.