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That is the problem in a nutshell, though. There are virtually no funds--perhaps none at all--that consistently outperform their benchmarks, especially in the large-cap U.S. stock space. Even the best funds often have lumpy performance, and many investors, including investors on this board, can't psychologically handle that lumpy performance when the fund is having a bout of significant underperformance. In fact, the lack of consistency is one reason the stats of underperformance versus the S&P 500 long-term are so high. The fund that outperforms the S&P 500 this year will very rarely be the same as the fund that outperforms it in the next. Meanwhile the fee drag of active management is consistent year after year and is utterly predictable. It is the most predictable thing about active management. Over time the outperformance of big up years can't overcome the cumulative effect of that fee drag for almost every large-cap fund. And even when the fund can overcome the fee drag many of its investors don't enjoy it because psychologically they buy and sell the fund at the wrong times, chasing its hot performance and bailing out of it at the bottom.Use the incessant annual/interim articles to help you identify which PMs/funds are the ones that consistently outperform their benchmarks.
I tend to agree, but actually very few active managers do that. Career risk from potentially lagging the market by being out of it is a primary reason. A secondary one is that many funds are held by financial advisors who do their own asset allocation for clients, so if they want the client to hold cash, they do it directly. With funds, advisors tend to want managers to be fully invested in their style at all times so as not to throw the client's underlying allocation to stocks, bonds and cash off.I tend to think "active management" should also include knowing when the market is too expensive and the potential long term return unattractive and be able to raise cash for a margin of safety.
Journal of Accountancy, What Happened to Limited Partnerships?ONCE TOUTED AS THE INVESTMENT vehicle of the future, limited partnerships are seldom pitched to investors today. Instead, clients and the CPAs who advise them are looking back at the tax and financial factors that contributed to the downfall of LPs in areas such as oil and gas, real estate and equipment leasing.
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THE TAX REFORM ACT OF 1986, combined with increased Internal Revenue Service audit scrutiny spelled the beginning of the end for tax-oriented LPs. Extension of the at-risk limitations to real estate tax shelters and the passive loss provisions in the TRA [reducing the ability of individual taxpayers to offset income with losses from tax shelters] gave the IRS the weapons it needed.
Why sure, Mona. But I'm thinking that may be when the mythical hot spot drops below freezing.I own ARTKX and like the fund. You might want to look at Causeway International Value, CIVVX. There seems to be similarities between the two funds. Both are managed by a group of good folks. Both are large cap blend. I think CIVVX is more value leaning. Both are Europe centric. Both have concentrated portfolios. Both have a good slug of Financial Services. I like ARTKX more because it has a lower SD. Just a thought. AJ, do you want my ARTKX when I liquidate my position ;-)
Saudi-Led Oil Producers to Lower Output Further
A group of large oil producers led by Saudi Arabia said Sunday they would cut more than a million barrels of output a day starting next month, a surprise move that upset Washington and led to a jump in crude prices amid concerns about the global economy. The output cuts amount to about 3% of the world’s petroleum production taken off the market in seven months.
The production cut will hit an oil market that was widely seen as tightly balanced between supply and demand, meaning it could lead to a longer-term rise in prices. If higher prices last, they could stoke inflation and complicate decisions for central bankers, who are caught between trying to tame rising prices and propping up a teetering banking system.
According to people familiar with the decision, it was negotiated primarily between the Saudis and Russian to get ahead of a global slowdown and raise prices to fund Saudi Arabia’s ambitious domestic projects and replenish Russia’s reserves.
Oil prices had been trending downward since late last year on global recession fears [and] some in OPEC see oil demand taking a hit in a recession. The price moved beyond $85 a barrel after the announcement, before falling slightly.
“Given the preventive nature of OPEC decisions, there is clearly something OPEC knows about demand trends and inventories that we have yet to discover fully in overall supply and demand balances,” said [the] global head of energy strategy at JPMorgan Chase & Co.
An oil analyst at Denmark’s Saxo Bank said the decision to cut production again reflected concerns over the U.S. economy, where interest rates are widely expected to increase.
World Bank Warns of Lost Decade for Global Economy
The World Bank is warning of a “lost decade” ahead for global growth, as the war in Ukraine, the Covid-19 pandemic and high inflation compound existing structural challenges.
The Washington, D.C.-based international lender says that “it will take a herculean collective policy effort to restore growth in the next decade to the average of the previous one.” Three main factors are behind the reversal in economic progress: an aging workforce, weakening investment and slowing productivity.
“Across the world, a structural growth slowdown is under way: At current trends, the global potential growth rate—the maximum rate at which an economy can grow without igniting inflation—is expected to fall to a three-decade low over the remainder of the 2020s,” the World Bank said.
Potential growth was 3.5% in the decade from 2000 to 2010. It dropped to 2.6% a year on average from 2011 to 2021, and will shrink further to 2.2% a year from 2022 to 2030, the bank said. About half of the slowdown is attributable to demographic factors.
Weakness in growth could be even more pronounced if financial crises erupt in major economies and trigger a global recession, the World Bank report cautions.
Earlier this year, the World Bank sharply lowered its short-term growth forecast for the global economy, citing persistently high inflation that has elevated the risk for a worldwide recession. It expects global growth to slow to 1.7% in 2023.
The World Bank identifies a number of challenges conspiring to push down global growth: weak investment, slow productivity growth, restrictive trade measures such as tariffs and the continuing negative effects—such as learning losses from school closures—because of the pandemic.
Some view the World Bank’s projection for a lost decade as too pessimistic. Other organizations, such as the International Monetary Fund and the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a Washington-based think tank, expect global GDP growth to expand a more robust 2.9% in 2023.
Harvard University economist Karen Dynan said that aging populations in nearly every part of the world will be a drag on global growth, but she was more optimistic on raising productivity—output per worker.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/811869/000119312519126040/d735543d497.htmEffective April 30, 2019, Thrivent Partner Worldwide Allocation Fund changed its name to Thrivent International Allocation Fund. Principal Global Investors, LLC (“Principal”) and Aberdeen Asset Managers Limited (“Aberdeen”) no longer serve as subadvisers to the Fund. Goldman Sachs Asset Management, L.P. will continue to subadvise the Fund. Thrivent Asset Management, LLC currently manages a portion of the Fund and will also manage the portions previously managed by Principal and Aberdeen.
Until recently, Thrivent offered an interval fund with this in mind: Thrivent Church Loan and Income Fund. But it has recently closed that fund and is winding it down.Thrivent (“Thrivent Financial for Lutherans”) ... is a membership-owned fraternal organization. ... We welcome Christians* seeking to live out their faith. *For more information on Thrivent's Christian Common Bond, visit thrivent.com/christiancalling
https://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/08/business/mutfund/08stable.htmlstable value funds and their close cousins, guaranteed investment contracts, together accounted for 21.3 percent of the assets in such plans in September [2006]
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The stable value funds in 401(k) plans are generally a pool of short-term bonds or other debt-market investments protected by an insurance contract known as a wrapper.... The underlying investments are generally corporate bonds, which yield more than government bonds but are also at a greater risk for loss of principal. He said Treasury bonds were a more secure long-term choice than stable value funds, which may be subject “to the law of unintended consequences."
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Like other stable value funds in 401(k) plans, [the Trust Advisors Stable Value Plus fund] was not a mutual fund but a collective trust.
https://www.tiaa.org/public/learn/retirement-planning-and-beyond/how-do-traditional-annuities-workTIAA Traditional is a guaranteed insurance contract and not an investment for federal securities law purposes.
https://www.stablevalue.org/stable-value/ (Links in original)Stable value investment options may be offered by investment managers, trust companies, or insurance companies in various structures, such as separately managed accounts, commingled funds or guaranteed insurance accounts. Sometimes a stable value investment option will be managed by a plan sponsor. While stable value investment options may be managed or structured in a variety of ways, the important similarity is the use of stable value investment contracts, issued by banks, insurance companies, and other financial institutions, which convey to the investment option the ability to carry certain assets at book value.
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/article-1120.html?issue=56[Stable value as an] investing option has disappeared for individuals [in 2005] because of questions raised by the Securities and Exchange Commission about how to value the funds, although no formal ruling against them has been made.
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Stable value funds have been available for many years, and remain available today-although on a much more limited basis-in some 401(k) plans and defined benefit pension plans maintained by employers. These investments come under the jurisdiction of the U.S. Department of Labor, which has strict, but somewhat different regulations, from the SEC. The SEC's questions affect investments by individuals in IRAs ...
Scudder launched the first stable value IRA fund in 1997, offering the funds as Scudder Preservation Plus Income and Scudder Preservation Plus. Others were offered by PBGH, Gartmore Morley, Oppenheimer and other mutual fund managers.
But the SEC began raising questions about how to determine the daily valuation of funds with insurance wrappers, which managers had been pricing at book value. The wrapper agreement, which is what made the stable value fund what it was, was also the part that was raising questions at the SEC. The SEC, which initially approved the funds, will not comment on the situation other than to say that there are no stable value funds now registered with the SEC, although there are some nonregistered ones in existence, says John Nester, an SEC spokesman.
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