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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Two Years After Meltdown, Third Avenue Fund Drops Again: (TFCIX)
    FYI: Third Avenue Management LLC’s Focused Credit Fund imploded in late 2015 when credit markets turned rocky. On Wednesday, Third Avenue told investors it marked down the value of its remaining positions by more than 50%.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.cetusnews.com/business/Two-Years-After-Meltdown--Third-Avenue-Fund-Drops-Again-.ry7YCtc-PoUG.html
    M* Snapshot TFCIX Performance:
    http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=TFCIX&region=usa&culture=en_US
  • No help from Treasury bond/note stuff today, they may have my 2018 equity magic money, but....
    I haven't heard anybody anywhere in the past few years recommend buying investment grade debt (I guess @Ted holds some corporates). Interesting, since folks chased treasury yields all the way down to 1% or some foolish figure. Now that they’re over 2.8%, nary a word. It was a rough week for a lot of bonds. That’s what happens when rates spike higher. Everybody sees inflation. But you won’t have much (IMO) If the central banks jack up the short end and push us into recession. Pay your money. Take your chances.
    Are high grade bonds with durations in the 5-year range still “dumb dumb”? Or might they fill a need for some seniors unnerved by turmoil in the equity and junk bond arena? (I’m biased having added a few GNMAs recently more for protection than with any thought of making money).
    BTW - Sad that every thread if left to its own course seems to lead to bitter wrangling (not that I haven’t sometimes unwittingly contributed). A sign of the times I think - plus @Lewis’s Sputnik-bots may be monitoring websites for mention of certain names. Dunno. It’s gotten so bad some in Congress are considering building a wall (there) to wall-off warring Dem and Rep staffers. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/house-intel-committee-gop-plan-to-wall-themselves-off-from-democrats-devin-nunes-adam-schiff/
  • Emerging Markets
    I'm at 11%, and will be adding to SFGIX. Or you could go with the Matthews shop, which restricts itself to Asia. Lots to choose from, over there. You may have better luck with shareholder services than I did. I pulled the plug with Matthews several years ago. But you'll have to do some real looking. For example, their MAPIX holds a lot in DEVELOPED Asia, by now. MACSX also holds instruments for current income, as well as growth.
  • Bond Funds
    How about the fund David highlighted in this months commentary, CBLDX? The selling point, I think, is in the statement below from the commentary. If you want low risk, this might be a consideration.
    CrossingBridge is an affiliate Cohanzick Management, sub-adviser to two exceptionally excellent and distinctive fixed-income funds. They are RiverPark Short Term High Yield (RPHYX/RPHIX) and RiverPark Strategic Income (RSIVX/RSIIX). RPHYX, in particular, has posted an exceptional risk-return profile: it has the highest Sharpe ratio of any mutual fund (as in: #1 out of 7000+) over the past five years and 14th over the past three.
  • Q&A With Scott Minerd, CIO, Guggenheim Partners: "The Bull Market’s Days Are Numbered"
    One NJ resident friend of mine who has been a local-new reporter and editor at the Bergen Record (now filling in at the NYTimes and at Newsday) only had this speculation, with nothing more concrete or data-based:
    I think that [new, due to the new tax cuts] tax emigration could well happen, although I doubt there’s been a stampede so soon. Even without the new deduction issues, a fair number of people leave their high property tax towns once their kids leave the school systems [while staying in-state]. This has been true for a long time. That’s in part because rates vary extremely widely between counties and even between towns within counties. And of course no shortage of people retire and head south, because of both lower taxes and the climate. Nothing new there. This must be true in Massachusetts, no?
    He pays well above $20k in property tax and will downsize to a condo in a couple of years, he says.
  • Tax loss harvesting question
    Doubleline Total Return has done well on a total return basis with limited volatility over the years.
  • M*: 25 Funds Investors Dumped In 2017
    FYI: Investors continue to dump higher-priced funds in favor of lower-priced fare--not only in U.S. stock categories, but in foreign-stock and bond categories, too.
    That's one takeaway from the results of our survey of individual funds that investors sold in 2017. (Last week we covered the top 25 funds they've been buying.) The good news for active funds was that the 2017 outflow was minimal compared with previous years, though, said Alina Lamy, a senior analyst in Morningstar's Quantitative Research Group
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.morningstar.com/articles/845735/25-funds-investors-dumped-in-2017.print.html
  • Ugly Drop
    Well, that was an ugly drop around 3 pm this afternoon. Reminded me of that flash crash we had a few years ago.
  • Q&A With Scott Minerd, CIO, Guggenheim Partners: "The Bull Market’s Days Are Numbered"
    @Bee, good one. Always enjoy your posts. Have a sister who moved from NJ to Florida a few years back. Still have a brother in law in Summit, both retired. One of the worst towns for taxes.
    I'm sure it feels that way, because NJ property tax rates are high almost everywhere, and Summit has some of the highest property values in the county. (It's at the eastern edge of the county closest to NY, is a "neighbor" of Millburn, is located at the convergence of two train lines to NY, and has a real downtown, unlike many other nearby communities. And some very nice homes.)
    Nevertheless, Summit has the lowest effective tax rate in the county. (Effective rate meaning rate on actual property values, as opposed to assessed values that may not represent the actual values). A "mere" 1.85%
    http://www.state.nj.us/treasury/taxation/pdf/lpt/gtrunion16.pdf
  • investing information,
    Here's an article worth reading on the topic of mutual fund draw down strategy for income that you might find helpful. Bonds may be a challenging space for income over the next few years, but a well managed fund should navigate these issues better than you or I. Also, keep it simple for you as well as you spouse to understand.
    Good luck:
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4050402-long-term-growing-income-open-end-mutual-fund-possible
    Also, A similar question on income was asked in this thread that may be of some interest:
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/96671/#Comment_96671
  • income for seniors
    I spent the last 5 years as a caregiver for my elderly parent. Things happen in steps as we age so prepare for these "steps" by trying to be one step ahead of the next "step". Most of these steps move in the opposite direction of what we are use to.
    Income is a misnomer at this age (85 & older) because, as we age, less and less of our income is spent on maintaining a lifestyle and more is spent on maintaining a life.
    A decision should be made on where this 85 year old will reside for their next 5-10-15 years. If the hope and desire is to stay at home (somewhat independently) realize that this can change instantly..a car crash, a fall, a major illness and this person will be unsafe living alone. Determine who (loved ones or community services or elderly care agencies) will dovetail with this independent living arrangement...often it is all three.
    Outside of these personal resources (low six figure assets), what other resources will this 85 year old also have access to? This could be a VA Aid & Attendance benefit, community heating allowances, renters rebates, SS waivers (on premiums), subsidies for the costs of home care, family leave benefits for family members, Home modification loans or grants, and many many more that would be unique to where you live and how you qualify. Usually qualifying means being below an income and an asset threshold. Come up with a spend down plan for these assets to maximize the time that this elderly person can live independently.
    Care changes as the elderly person's medical need increase. Spend down or transfer of assets need to occurred 5 years prior to medicaid becoming available for helping pay for LT care. I just completed this process with my elderly mom and it was an honor, a privileged and the hardest damn thing you'd ever want to do (mostly) alone.
    Remember that care facility costs for LT care can be substantial...$4-7K / month is not uncommon.
  • Posting Links of no informative value
    They just seemed to be having their way from the getgo, mostly; of course I know it was close. But not as much as it looked. Pats could not stop the run, either JA or Blount, and JA was amazing. Eagles' D kept Pats run stifled, for its part. Most of the Pats afterward said as much, about not being to get going and get their typical game going, if you watched the post interviews (maybe available chiefly in Boston area). Discouraging to sit through, but good on Philly.
    Neither team had a good defense, with Brady torching the Eagles for more than 500 yards passing with 3 TDs. The game really hinged on just a couple plays at the end. The Eagles eating up the clock in the 4th with that extended drive (terrible defense by NE) and Brady getting strip sacked near the end. Up to that point, the outcome was in question. Philly made a few more plays than NE. The Pats defense was about as bad as I've seen from that team in many years.
  • David Snowball's February Commentary Is Now Available
    Leuthold (usually bearish [edited], iirc) contrasts interestingly with this from Marvin Schwartz of NB; really makes you want to check his history:
    \\ For 20 years, the average price/earnings ratio has been 19.3. If you go back 50 years, it’s 15.6 times. In periods where inflation grew 3% or less—which is 22 of the past 50 years—the P/E of the market was 19.7. Now, at 17 for 2019 and 15.9 for 2020, P/Es don’t look particularly stretched.
  • It Feels 'A Bit Like 2006' For Stocks And The Economy. That Should Scare Us.
    I am not concerned if its 2006 as it gives me a year to sell. While Ted is correct that 2006 was followed by 2008 most of us if asked would say 2006 was followed by 2007
    By the way after 9 up years selling may generate lots of capital gains so selling some this year may not be wrong. We on this site all know about the bulls,the bears and the pigs.
  • Q&A With Scott Minerd, CIO, Guggenheim Partners: "The Bull Market’s Days Are Numbered"
    @Bee, good one. Always enjoy your posts. Have a sister who moved from NJ to Florida a few years back. Still have a brother in law in Summit, both retired. One of the worst towns for taxes.
  • Here Is Another -- Totally Legitimate -- Way To Shield Money From Taxes
    FYI: I am jealous.
    Any time you can protect your money from the tax man, I want in.
    George Papadopoulos is 50 years old and has a tax-free stash to cover health care expenses that is close to $100,000 and growing. It will continue to grow for the rest of his life just like an Individual Retirement Account.
    “It’s a nice bucket of totally tax-free money,” the wealth manager from Novi, Mich., said.
    The account is known as a Health Savings account, a financial device that is growing in popularity as the Baby Boomer generation chews through its golden years and their attendant health issues.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/get-there/wp/2018/02/01/here-is-another-totally-legitimate-way-to-shield-money-from-taxes/?utm_term=.080c24bc89a3
  • Q&A With Scott Minerd, CIO, Guggenheim Partners: "The Bull Market’s Days Are Numbered"
    Just a little math and a little music...To qualify for a $800K mortgage in any of these high tax communities requires an pretty sizeable income...your call.
    Let say this process of home "loanership" is a 30 year adventure...a decent career for you and a time spread for all your kids to get out on their own. Half of us will have divorced and need additional resources to somehow make two households work.
    In Milburn, a $1M home will require a $200K down payment to avoid PMI...good luck with that as you are just out of college with $200K in student loan debt. An $800K mortgage (P&I @ 4% for 30 yrs) will run you about $3800/ month. Add almost $2K/M for taxes and $200/M for insurance and as a "home loaner' you will need $6K/month or $72K/YR to hang your hat. I have not mentioned the lifestyle costs nor the $250K/kid costs you will encounter...I did mention the likelihood of divorce.
    Over 30 years the cumulative cost of property taxes alone will equal or exceed the $800k mortgage. So the banks gets paid...the city gets paid...the ex gets paid... the dentist gets paid...the utilities get paid...you get screwed.
    You get to wake up everyday and try to prove to your boss that you are worthy of this rat race salary so you have the privilege of getting clipped to cover all these costs plus the ongoing cost of maintaining the properties (after the divorce your property is a little smaller and a little outside of Milburn, but still costly) and other monthly bills.
    Welcome...Home Sweat Home...here's to a simpler time that we threw away:

  • Q&A With Scott Minerd, CIO, Guggenheim Partners: "The Bull Market’s Days Are Numbered"
    I got to read the whole article through google, this google search may or may not work for you.
    You're right that the cost of lending just got lower for high tax states. He doesn't discuss this. What he says is that Connecticut and NJ are losing their tax base as high income earners flee (at least in NJ this has been happening for some years thanks to NJ's rising property taxes).
    The loss of SaLT deductions, effectively hiking taxes for these states, accelerates the trend. This in turn lowers property values (reducing state & local revenue) and income tax revenue, putting bond ratings at risk. For good measure, he threw in Illinois.
    Completely separate, he's predicting a GDP growth of 2.5%, up from 2%, due to companies being able to immediately write off of capital expenditures (instead of amortizing).
  • Ric Edelman Chastises Vanguard CEO, Wall Street Execs For Rejecting Bitcoin
    It might have helped had PennyBonds continued the quote with the next line from Edelman:
    "They are in “denial” because they don’t understand the technology, Edelman said."
    A company that doesn't understand a technology (at least its capabilities and limitations), doesn't embrace it as a user, let alone as an investor. It sounds like Edleman doesn't comprehend Vanguard's thinking.
    It's not because Vanguard doesn't appreciate the technology that it has no interest in one of its applications.
    I'm sure Vanguard understands internet protocols, yet it never offered an internet fund. BTW, how did those funds turn out?
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/former-internet-fund-stars-10-years-after-the-bust-2010-03-08
  • Ric Edelman Chastises Vanguard CEO, Wall Street Execs For Rejecting Bitcoin
    Blockchain is not the same as Bitcoin. The reference to Vanguard is about Blockchain. If my vague understanding is correct, Blockchain is a technology or platform that the cryptocurrency product "Bit coin" uses.
    I also believe cryptocurrency is the future, but that doesn't mean Bit coin is the choice product or the only product for cryptoconcurrency in the future. I think there will be many iterations. But on the other hand maybe since they were first they will be the gold standard of crypto. That is the investment gamble.
    Hey, who the hell would have guessed something called a cell phone would rule the world 30 years ago? And when it started out, didn't everyone drive up Motorola stock, not Apple?