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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • GLRBX
    PVFIX has been taking a bit of a hit lately because of "value" bets on "energy". I am waiting patiently to add to my position with money from the distributions over last several years that I never re-invest.
  • The Closing Bell: Wall Street Tumbles As Investors Flee Latest Trump Crisis: Dow Down 372
    GLRBX down 1.06% yesterday. Eh, not impressed for a 50/50 equity/bond split fund.
    Kind of makes sense. I believe small and mid caps were down about 2x that amount.
    Unfortunately, the fund managers' decision to stress small and mid cap value equities has not served it well over the past three to five years. In addition, It's upside/downside capture ratio has been pretty poor during that time period as well.
  • how does your brokerage display your holdings' gain?
    @Davidmoran. I recently left ML where I had a managed account and went back to Fidelity after 4 years with ML. Oddly, the way Merrill did it is much more accurate. If you go into history of purchases, they show cap gains and dividends as having a zero cost so the return is accurate. When my accounts were transferred last week, Fido showed reinvested cost on some of my holdings total return cut in half in some cases. I will be working with the account manager at Fido to do the corrections since I have all the data. Like you, I use total return to see if I should shave profits or how much profit I have from my original investment. One of the reasons I left ML is when I had my advisor try and sell specific lots that had the most profit, ML used FIFO regardless of instructions. They did this numerous times. Fidelity let's you choose the lots and they execute as instructed.
  • Bank Still Look Like A Good Investment
    If this is a 1995 style market which "experts" are predicting, then growth should outperform value. So IMO tech outperforms financials.
    I do think below from Bill Maher is a genuine problem for "tech". Something I have been saying for years as I refuse to create a Facebook/Twitter account. Then again, I'm known to be anti-social...and proud of it.

  • Fund Focus: Franklin Income Fund
    The author seems to simply be reaching for a reason to not like the fund.
    They say it's hard to compare the fund because "The nearly 70-year-old Franklin Income fund hasn’t had a clear benchmark for all those years because most of its investments are in five different asset classes—domestic and foreign dividend-paying stocks, investment-grade bonds, high-yield (or junk) bonds and convertible bonds—to generate current income."
    And this is bad..why?
    "The picture is even muddier because the asset mix can shift dramatically over time, and some of the convertibles can be “synthetic”—swaps that give the fund an enhanced yield on a common stock in exchange for forgoing some potential price appreciation but accepting all potential depreciation."
    I would say that shifting assets to enhance performance is why you might choose active management in the first place. FKINX is the largest individual holding in my taxable account, acquired though inheritance. Thanks Dad.
  • GLRBX
    I heard James management speak to a group of RIAs in late 2007. The person told us they (James) were fairly confident a massive selloff was in the offing. Interesting that he said they were doing nothing to the portfolio despite their strong conviction of a 50-60% drawdown in the S&P 500. The fund held up reasonably well despite the lack of conviction in their own conviction. It always stuck with me. Their allocation has barely changed over the years, remaining about 50% in stocks and 50% in bonds and cash. Also interesting is the fund's mostly mid-cap value tilt. I compare it to WHGIX, VBINX. We use WHGIX as an actively-managed, low-risk hold in conservative accounts.
  • Fund Focus: Franklin Income Fund
    Not a subscriber of the WSJ ... So, I could not read the linked article. But, it seems more and more funds that Old_Skeet owns are becoming the making of articles. I have owned Franking Income fund since my teenage years which dates back to the 60's. Regardless of the article's content I feel it has served me well through the years.
    I'm also thinking that if you own something through the years ... and it has served you well ... and, folks are writting about it ... Well, it must be a keeper.
    Think I'll keep it a while longer.
  • GLRBX
    Thanks for the input. It's definitely struggled over the past few years during an up market. It seems to focus on more mid caps and small caps when compared to the average moderate balanced fund.
    Yeah, another reason IMHO to own it. Also I think it is more "conservative" than your moderate balanced fund. One reason it has held back relatively to others.
  • International Small Cap Suggestions
    TCMPX is a great fund, IMO. I've been invested for the last 2+ years. It's my largest active manager allocation.
  • International Small Cap Suggestions
    Just over 2 years ago Dr. Snowball opined that "There are three, and only three, great international small cap funds" mutualfundobserver.com/?s=qusox
    Two have been mentioned here: GPIOX, which is hard closed but I'd concur that GISOX is about as close as you can get in an open fund, and QUSIX, which I also own and think highly of.
    The third was Wasatch International Opportunities, WAIOX, which hasn't been mentioned yet but probably deserves to be.
    It would be interesting to know if David would stick by his picks, add any or delete any, but it seems you have quite a few good options in the comments so far.
  • GLRBX
    Thanks for the input. It's definitely struggled over the past few years during an up market. It seems to focus on more mid caps and small caps when compared to the average moderate balanced fund.
  • International Small Cap Suggestions
    I agree with Crash (and Bee) that PRIDX seems like a solid, stable fund for long term investing.
    I hadn't taken a close look at VINEX in a few years (it had a pretty long poor stretch prior to 2013), but seems to have regained its luster - despite what M* thinks (Neutral rating). As I recall, it was much more value leaning many years ago.
    If you're looking for boutique funds, QUSIX (Pear Tree Polaris Foreign Small Cap) has a fine long term record with managers that have been there for nearly a decade. Really low turnover, a healthy dollop of EM (18%), neither concentrated nor spread thin (74 holdings, 13% in top 5). Smaller cap than many of the other funds mentioned. Also value-oriented, which is a bit different than most.
    A boutique fund on the growth side that pops out on a screen (don't know much about it) is TCMPX (AMG TimeSquare Int'l Small Cap). Been around four years, low AUM, great returns (and high Sharpe ratio, along with PRIDX and ISMIX).
    (M* shows only 161 funds with mid or small cap portfolios that are international; only 158 if one excludes global funds. Rule out the obvious duds and regional funds you may not want, and the pool becomes small enough that one could almost research each one in detail.)
  • Barron's Cover Story: Europe On Sale: Time To Buy Foreign Stocks
    I couldn't access the article at this time, so I don't know what was discussed or compared.
    A general overview comparing SPY and IEV for the past 3 years.
    SPY = +33.8%
    IEV = -1.9%
    Note: SPY is about +7.4% YTD and IEV is about +15.5% YTD.
    So, yes; there was more value at a given point.
    ALSO keep in mind that after the market melt; the U.S. moved into quantitative money easing while the ECB maintained an austerity mode is may still be about 3 years behind the money curve. In addition, the structure of the ECB and Eurozone is not as is the Federal Reserve system here.
    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?SPY,IEV&n=758&O=011000
    Regards,
    Catch
  • How To Invest In Japan’s Rebound
    FYI: (Click On Article Title At Top Of Google Search)
    Japan's economic recovery has lifted stocks; its biggest index has doubled in the past five years.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.google.com/#q=How+to+Invest+in+Japan’s+Rebound
  • Jason Zweig: A Short History Of Folly
    FYI: Researching my upcoming weekly column for The Wall Street Journal reminded me of the mania for investment trusts in the late 1920s, which I had first written about more than 20 years ago. Here’s a look back at that early article, which — despite its ludicrously wrong call on Berkshire Hathaway toward the end — still isn’t a bad survey of the long history of fads and crazes in the financial markets.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://jasonzweig.com/a-short-history-of-folly/
  • Beating the S&P 500 by choosing its growth or value segment
    Hmm....Just for kicks I went to Portfolio Visualized. Plotted VFINX in one portfolio vs a 50-50 mix of VIVAX and VIGRX in another. The 2nd portfolio came out ahead and the its max draw down was 0.3-0.4 percent.
    I dunno about momentum, but what you are saying might have merit if value and growth zig zags for reasonable periods of time where trading decisions can be made. Visually that seems a bit hard to spot across the last 20 years.
    You could experiment with Portfolio Visualizer if you wanted to back test how much you would have allocated to one index or the other at different points in time. Might be fun. :-)
  • Guggenheim BulletShares
    Such a portfolio will have some of the attributes you describe, but may not do quite what you're hoping for.
    We can see the hypothetical portfolio you looked at here (set the slider on the page to five years to get the five year ladder).
    The YTM and YTW figures don't take expenses into account, so the actual yields are about 1/3% lower than stated (ER of 0.24% for investment grade, 0.43% for HY). In addition, what you can expect is YTW or SEC yield, not YTM. When I go to the page and use 2018 as a start, 5 year equally weighted portfolio, I see YTW of 3.37%. Subtract off the 1/3% ER and that gives 3.04%, or about the same as the SEC yield of 3.10%, as one would expect.
    The fund determines the "effective maturity" of callable bonds by estimating when it expects the bonds to be called (per prospectus). In a rising interest rate environment, the bonds become less likely to get called, which might create some principal risk at fund maturity (as the bonds haven't "matured", i.e. gotten called, as expected). I believe this is implicit in the prospectus' listing of "extension risk".
    There's cash drag. Again as the prospectus states under "declining yield risk", in the final year, the fund gradually converts to cash as the bonds mature any time during that year. Stated yields generally assume you can reinvest cash at the rate you were receiving, but these funds sit on cash in their final year.
    This portfolio also has a lot more credit risk than your typical core plus (investment grade plus some junk) fund. If I change the IG:HY mix to 80/20, the YTW drops to 2.70% (or 2.45% after subtracting 0.25% in expenses), and the SEC yield becomes 2.44%.
    Personally, I'd be happier with a fund like BCOIX, where I'd be trading a bit of that price stability for a managed portfolio (at no higher cost) that can "go with the flow" (deal with bonds getting called early or late) and not sit on cash. Also, even though it's a core "plus (junk)" fund, it takes on a lot less credit risk. Long term it should do fine even with potentially greater price fluctuations.
    A shorter term alternative might be something like DBLSX. At 0.43% ER, it's also not too expensive, and with a 1.25 year duration, it may hold up well against interest rate risk (though I'm always suspicious of duration figures for mortgage backed bonds).
    Bullet funds are best for implementing a bullet investment strategy (where you want a specific maturity date for an anticipated need, such as a home downpayment).
    http://www.municipalbonds.com/investing-strategies/bond-investment-strategies-ladders-barbells-and-bullets/
    A bullet ladder will do some of what you want, but if you'll pardon the pun, it's no magic bullet. Some risks are reduced, others increased. IMHO not a big impact for long term investing in bonds, but this ladder might be better for you if your horizon is shorter term.
  • Legendary Investor Bill Miller Is Killing It Again, Thanks To A Clever Bet On Apple: Text & Video
    Having several great years followed by several terrible years makes you legendary, I guess.
  • DALBAR 2016 QAIB: Investors Are Still Their Own Worst Enemy
    FYI: For 23 years, DALBAR has been publishing their annual Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior study that examines investor performance in mutual funds. Their goal is to shed light on how to improve performance by managing behaviors that cause investors to act imprudently.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.ifa.com/articles/dalbar_2016_qaib_investors_still_their_worst_enemy/
  • Zacks: Are These Bond ETFs the Best Choice for Fixed Income Investors?: Text & Video
    FYI: This podcast takes a closer look at the fixed income market and the evolution of bond ETFs over the years. In particular, we take a closer look at BulletShares, and what sets them apart from the rest of the crop, so check it out for additional information on why these funds might be the ‘next generation’ of fixed income ETFs.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/zacks-podcast-highlights-bond-etfs-095009127.html