Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Barron's Cover Story: Europe On Sale: Time To Buy Foreign Stocks
    I couldn't access the article at this time, so I don't know what was discussed or compared.
    A general overview comparing SPY and IEV for the past 3 years.
    SPY = +33.8%
    IEV = -1.9%
    Note: SPY is about +7.4% YTD and IEV is about +15.5% YTD.
    So, yes; there was more value at a given point.
    ALSO keep in mind that after the market melt; the U.S. moved into quantitative money easing while the ECB maintained an austerity mode is may still be about 3 years behind the money curve. In addition, the structure of the ECB and Eurozone is not as is the Federal Reserve system here.
    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?SPY,IEV&n=758&O=011000
    Regards,
    Catch
  • How To Invest In Japan’s Rebound
    FYI: (Click On Article Title At Top Of Google Search)
    Japan's economic recovery has lifted stocks; its biggest index has doubled in the past five years.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.google.com/#q=How+to+Invest+in+Japan’s+Rebound
  • Jason Zweig: A Short History Of Folly
    FYI: Researching my upcoming weekly column for The Wall Street Journal reminded me of the mania for investment trusts in the late 1920s, which I had first written about more than 20 years ago. Here’s a look back at that early article, which — despite its ludicrously wrong call on Berkshire Hathaway toward the end — still isn’t a bad survey of the long history of fads and crazes in the financial markets.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://jasonzweig.com/a-short-history-of-folly/
  • Beating the S&P 500 by choosing its growth or value segment
    Hmm....Just for kicks I went to Portfolio Visualized. Plotted VFINX in one portfolio vs a 50-50 mix of VIVAX and VIGRX in another. The 2nd portfolio came out ahead and the its max draw down was 0.3-0.4 percent.
    I dunno about momentum, but what you are saying might have merit if value and growth zig zags for reasonable periods of time where trading decisions can be made. Visually that seems a bit hard to spot across the last 20 years.
    You could experiment with Portfolio Visualizer if you wanted to back test how much you would have allocated to one index or the other at different points in time. Might be fun. :-)
  • Guggenheim BulletShares
    Such a portfolio will have some of the attributes you describe, but may not do quite what you're hoping for.
    We can see the hypothetical portfolio you looked at here (set the slider on the page to five years to get the five year ladder).
    The YTM and YTW figures don't take expenses into account, so the actual yields are about 1/3% lower than stated (ER of 0.24% for investment grade, 0.43% for HY). In addition, what you can expect is YTW or SEC yield, not YTM. When I go to the page and use 2018 as a start, 5 year equally weighted portfolio, I see YTW of 3.37%. Subtract off the 1/3% ER and that gives 3.04%, or about the same as the SEC yield of 3.10%, as one would expect.
    The fund determines the "effective maturity" of callable bonds by estimating when it expects the bonds to be called (per prospectus). In a rising interest rate environment, the bonds become less likely to get called, which might create some principal risk at fund maturity (as the bonds haven't "matured", i.e. gotten called, as expected). I believe this is implicit in the prospectus' listing of "extension risk".
    There's cash drag. Again as the prospectus states under "declining yield risk", in the final year, the fund gradually converts to cash as the bonds mature any time during that year. Stated yields generally assume you can reinvest cash at the rate you were receiving, but these funds sit on cash in their final year.
    This portfolio also has a lot more credit risk than your typical core plus (investment grade plus some junk) fund. If I change the IG:HY mix to 80/20, the YTW drops to 2.70% (or 2.45% after subtracting 0.25% in expenses), and the SEC yield becomes 2.44%.
    Personally, I'd be happier with a fund like BCOIX, where I'd be trading a bit of that price stability for a managed portfolio (at no higher cost) that can "go with the flow" (deal with bonds getting called early or late) and not sit on cash. Also, even though it's a core "plus (junk)" fund, it takes on a lot less credit risk. Long term it should do fine even with potentially greater price fluctuations.
    A shorter term alternative might be something like DBLSX. At 0.43% ER, it's also not too expensive, and with a 1.25 year duration, it may hold up well against interest rate risk (though I'm always suspicious of duration figures for mortgage backed bonds).
    Bullet funds are best for implementing a bullet investment strategy (where you want a specific maturity date for an anticipated need, such as a home downpayment).
    http://www.municipalbonds.com/investing-strategies/bond-investment-strategies-ladders-barbells-and-bullets/
    A bullet ladder will do some of what you want, but if you'll pardon the pun, it's no magic bullet. Some risks are reduced, others increased. IMHO not a big impact for long term investing in bonds, but this ladder might be better for you if your horizon is shorter term.
  • Legendary Investor Bill Miller Is Killing It Again, Thanks To A Clever Bet On Apple: Text & Video
    Having several great years followed by several terrible years makes you legendary, I guess.
  • DALBAR 2016 QAIB: Investors Are Still Their Own Worst Enemy
    FYI: For 23 years, DALBAR has been publishing their annual Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior study that examines investor performance in mutual funds. Their goal is to shed light on how to improve performance by managing behaviors that cause investors to act imprudently.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.ifa.com/articles/dalbar_2016_qaib_investors_still_their_worst_enemy/
  • Zacks: Are These Bond ETFs the Best Choice for Fixed Income Investors?: Text & Video
    FYI: This podcast takes a closer look at the fixed income market and the evolution of bond ETFs over the years. In particular, we take a closer look at BulletShares, and what sets them apart from the rest of the crop, so check it out for additional information on why these funds might be the ‘next generation’ of fixed income ETFs.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/zacks-podcast-highlights-bond-etfs-095009127.html
  • Are You A Schwab Client?
    Bob, I feel your pain :-) I really do. Have you ever dealt with TRS? I spent something like 6 months to a year, including meeting in person at least a monthly basis, to get my parents' retirement accounts straightened out with them. Dealing with TRS and TIAA is like night and, well, twilight.
    You find yourself in the position of having clients dump all their TIAA issues in your lap, and being largely unable to help because of the lock up. Here though, I'm somewhat unsympathetic to the "victims". Don't invest in what you don't understand.
    At retirement, TIAA usually does not require participants to annuitize (the 10-year certain TPA or a lifetime annuity). Most contracts allow retireees to keep money in TIAA Traditional, subject only to RMD requirements. On the other hand, if you want your money immediately at retirement, some contracts (e.g. SRA, GSRA) allow that. The tradeoff is that participants get a lower rate of return. Flexibility isn't free, at TIAA or elsewhere.
    See FAQ #27: https://www.tiaa.org/public/pdf/TT_FAQ.pdf
    TIAA Guide to Your Payment Options: https://www.tiaa.org/public/pdf/TT_FAQ.pdf
    As a DIY retail investor, I personally focus more on the investment products available and their costs than the service offered. So I'll invest with Vanguard, even though the service I receive isn't as great as it is at Schwab or Fidelity. Likewise, if TIAA has something different to offer me, I'll consider them as well. So long as they can get their 1099s straight (something that Scottrade botched badly when I tried them out years ago), I can live with most other foibles. But each person has his own priorities.
  • Are You A Schwab Client?
    I hesitate to wade back into a discussion on TIAA, since some folks obviously have had good experiences with them. The reason for my earlier comments are simply that, based on our experiences over the last 30 years, working with clients who have accounts at TIAA has not been positive. Acknowledging that all these accounts were 403b, mostly in the traditional fixed-annuity bucket (which is a decent product), our experience was and is that working with TIAA customer service people has been worse than having teeth pulled. And then you have the salespeople who fail to disclose the roadblocks of moving dollars from the traditional bucket to the CREF bucket, or the 10-year withdrawal requirement at retirement. Perhaps they have a different service culture on the retail brokerage side of their business. I shut up now.
  • Macron, France, Euro$, ECB...a few related observations. HEDJ etf
    @ Crash: I was a bit surprised to learn the other day that an investment in the French market (le CAC 40) in 2007 would have earned just about zilch in the last 10 years. Not surprising a European fund would have done poorly.
  • Paul Merriman: Try This Low-Cost Portfolio With Massive Diversification
    Thanks @Ted...perfect article for my friend's 30 year old. I might even learn something.
    Hope the next 46 years are as generous. What am I saying, I won't be around for it to matter.
  • Macron, France, Euro$, ECB...a few related observations. HEDJ etf
    Macron won, 2-1. Holy landslides, Batman. When I started investing, (2002) I stayed away from Europe. Old money. Dead money. Asia was charging ahead. I owned Matthews, back then. The Financial Crash caused by the criminal banksters struck the periphery hard: Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Greece. Italy, too. And there are still systemic issues to be dealt with ... Was Ireland able to climb out of crisis sooner than the others--- via a new Austerity--- because it is smaller and more homogeneous? I just don't know. Lots of ANGRY people, when suddenly, WATER became a metered commodity. I lived in a town here in the States years ago, at the bottom of the Northern Panhandle of West Virginia below Wheeling, where even in 1992, water was not metered.
    My holding in PRESX about 18 months or 2 years ago (TRP Europe) went nowhere, at break-neck speed. I guess I missed the sudden upsurge on the heels of easing by the ECB. (Draghi.) I dumped it. Currently, my PRIDX is doing much better. Its portfolio is pretty evenly split between Europe and Asia. A smattering in Latin America (4%.) Is the PRIDX fund Manager just better at stock selection than the PRESX guy, with regard to the EU portion of holdings? Of course it may be that Asian holdings doing so well today may serve to cancel-out any EU under-performance within the fund. Within the overall portfolio, PRIDX holds 15% in GB, and 28% in DEVELOPED Europe. I'm just thinking out loud--- so to speak.
    What I'm wondering is: just how un-dead has the EU become? Investing strictly in Europe got me nowhere, 2 years ago..... I don't think I'd own a dedicated-Europe fund again, anyhow, but since I own PRIDX now, I'm simply wondering...
  • Miss The Bull Market? Investors Say The Next One Will Be Overseas
    FYI: For years, U.S. stocks have been a primary driver of global equity market gains, posting far stronger results than the rest of the world. That may be about to change.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/miss-the-bull-market-investors-say-the-next-one-will-be-overseas-2017-05-09/print
  • Gundlach Makes Bearish Call On Stock Market As S&P 500, Nasdaq Hit Records
    @BobC Yes, lots of talk, but mediocre performance (with the exception of DSENX). Sort of reminds me of Bill Gross during his last few years at PIMCO.
  • Are You A Schwab Client?
    Have been with Schwab for a long time now, almost ten years! Before that I have used Scottrade, TD, WellsTrade and also have an IRA at Fidelity. I echo observations by others, being very satisfied after consolidating essentially all our assets at Schwab. Great personal support! Helped my daughter open an account and explained in great detail all options, walked her through all paperwork in person. Nice website, good access to research, broad fund availability! As msf and others have mentioned, their ATM/debit card is great for international travel. Really no negatives so far (touch wood)!
  • Rondure Funds now open
    @Ben - My 2 cents. IT is the timing of the fund opening. International / Emerging are likely to do better than US in the next few years - seems to be the general consensus.
    Grandeur timed their launches well. Rondure probably has too. I'm okay buying with a tight stop as long as they are NTF. One does not have to suffer extended downturns, and frankly I abhor anyone calling one who sells a "trader".
    The only funds I buy and hold are the "eponymous" go anywhere variety, and even those I will time my entries. Just my 2 cents.
  • Portfolio review for a 30 year old
    @bee, I agree with your assessment of @Ted 's comment, keep it simple. I wish I would have done that many years ago and kept the faith. Sometimes here at MFO I think we, and I'll include myself, want to build a fantasy football team (or fantasy-fund manager team might be a better analogy) collecting all the best funds we can muster when a few simple index funds, especially at 30, would beat any fantasy team over the long haul.
    Congrats to you bee for helping a friend and also to your friend for looking for advice.
  • Portfolio review for a 30 year old
    To be honest with you I don't know how I would do a MF portfolio these days as the 5 I hold add up to less than 6% of my total portfolio. That's kinda why I asked those that do. And up until a few years ago I also held no bond or bond type funds but I am currently ridiculously long in two bond CEF's, PDI & PCI. What Ivascyn has done and is doing is hard to ignore. Thank you for some clarity.
  • Portfolio review for a 30 year old
    I agree that there are probably too many funds.If index funds are available with reasonable expense ratios I would compare the performance of the total stock market fund to the suggested portfolio reflecting the weightings. I suspect that he total market fund will outperform . I think a reasonable portfolio fora 30 year old would be 75% us stocks 5% emerging market, 10% developed market and 10% bonds. After a market rise for 8 years it seems piggish to not have a source of funds like a bond fund to rebalance after a significant decline