Hi Guys,
Indeed CALPERS has had a rough year. But that's not extraordinary. It's more the rule than the exception. Over the last 20 years, that agency has underperformed the equity markets in just about that entire timeframe.
As an investment agency CALPERS is a disaster. Why? They spend almost 50 million dollars each year in fees and hire about 275 "expert" consultant and advisor teams. It's certainly not that they aggressively pursue and deploy active managers. They do and have for years without outdistancing a poor man's portfolio.
There's a significant lesson embedded in those disappointing outcomes. It's not easy to even match the marketplace when attempting to add some Alpha. Even very smart guys with a deep bench are not often up to that challenge. An alternate strategy is obvious. Warren Buffett advocates it for his surviving family members.
Best Wishes.

PRLAX: over the past 5 years, still DOWN over -8%. If you bought into it in this past January, you're very happy!
ODPVY (Morningstar:) + 65% YTD.

http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/74119/#Comment_74119

SFGIX. Over one-fifth in Latin America, now. Also, over one-fifth in "Europe," which includes the Middle East. Still 56% in Asia.
PRLAX: over the past 5 years, still DOWN over -8%. If you bought into it in this past January, you're very happy!
ODPVY (Morningstar:) + 65% YTD.

As a university faculty member in an east coast university system, after 7 years, I'm still glad I elected the 403(b) option at TIAA CREF versus the state pension ... the entire account is parked in the very low-cost and high-quality AF WaMu R-6.
Why not go the traditional pension route? Not only don't I trust state pension/investment boards (or their political masters), but if 'my' investments are going to gain or lose money, as a fairly knowledgeable/competent investor I want to be the one responsible for it happening.

PRBLX, though all-equity, is pretty defensive, imho. Only dropped 22% in '08 and has bounced back from each 'panic drop' in the years since. (I own it)

"...An independent report from Wilshire Associates in Santa Monica, a CalPERS consultant, warned that forward-looking assumptions are quite low but cautioned CalPERS against taking chances to try to regain ground. “While the reduced portfolio return expectation vs. three years ago could encourage additional risk-taking in an attempt to maintain a higher expected return, such action would seem contrary to the committee’s long-term plans for portfolio de-risking,” it said."

FYI: Latin American mutual funds are making beautiful music this year after lagging the broad U.S. stock markets for much of the past 10 years.
Funds tracking stocks in Olympics-host-to-be Brazil, as well as in Mexico and other Latin American countries, are up 31.05% on average so far this year, going into Friday, according to Lipper Inc. That's attracting a very thorough look-see from investors who are seeking gains in the diversified portion of the portfolios
Regards,
Ted
http://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/mutual-funds/latin-american-stocks-are-hot-hot-hot-but-can-it-last/

Recently started a position in HDS, a spinoff from Home Depot a couple of years ago. Started the position the day after Brexit when everything was down, its all domestic, so thought it was a good entry point. Most likely will be a trading stock, but we'll see how it works out.

FYI:
Regards,
Ted
July 14, 2016
Dear WEALTHTRACK Subscriber,
For inspiration and levity I occasionally turn to Lewis Carroll’s classic,
Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland. As I survey the still unfolding saga of Brexit, spreading negative interest rates around the world and the unsettling political scene in Europe and the U.S. two quotes seem particularly apt. As the Cheshire Cat told Alice about Wonderland: “We’re all mad here.” And as Alice opined: “it would be so nice if something made sense for a change.”
This week’s guests are trying to make sense of highly unusual and in some cases unprecedented developments. One of those is Brexit. After decades of opting into the European Union, albeit on some of its own terms such as keeping the pound sterling as its currency, the United Kingdom opted out. A pressing question is will Britain be the lone exception, or the first of many to do so?
A recent Pew Research poll found the EU was unpopular among substantial numbers of citizens in many countries. 71% of Greeks view the EU unfavorably, 61% of the French do, 49% of Spaniards and 48% of Germans agree.
Since the financial crisis there has been talk of Grexit, Greece’s possible exit from the Eurozone. The latest candidate is Italy with “Quitaly” envisioned as its struggling banking industry reels under pressure from EU regulators.
Then there is the impact of the unprecedented easing policies of central banks in major developed countries. On this week’s program, we’ll show you a chart from Evercore ISI that tells the story of the “Incredible Balance Sheet Expansion” of the big three. Since 2009, the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan balance sheets have increased a cumulative +$8 trillion! Among other things, this helps explain why bond yields have plunged. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note has hit new lows in recent weeks, while yields on German and Japanese bonds are trading below zero in negative territory.
In the week after the Brexit vote, Evercore ISI counted 18 more easing moves by central banks. How do these developments affect global economies and markets?
On this week’s WEALTHTRACK, we will hear the views of two experienced global investors. Nicholas Sargen, Chief Economist and Investment Strategist at Fort Washington Investment Advisors, the asset management arm of Western & Southern Financial Group will join us for a rare television interview. Sargen holds a PhD in Economics, and has been international economist, global money manager and Chief Investment Officer for several major financial firms as well as an official at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
We’ll also be joined by William Wilby, in a WEALTHTRACK television exclusive. One of our Great Investors, now a private investor actively managing his own retirement account, Wilby was the Portfolio Manager of the award winning Oppenheimer Global Fund which was ranked number one in its category for the 12 years he ran it. A graduate of West Point, Wilby has a PhD in International Monetary Economics and has held various international finance and investment positions at several top financial institutions, including the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
Both Sargen and Wilby believe the Brexit effect is far from over. I asked them why it is still so significant.
If you miss the show on Public Television this week, you can watch it at your convenience on our website. You’ll also find web exclusive EXTRA interviews with Sargen and Wilby about investing in the 21st century.
Thank you for watching. Have a great weekend and make the week ahead a profitable and a productive one.
Best Regards,
Consuelo
http://wealthtrack.com/
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I don't think new taxable investors should buy this year(The 17+$ distribution iin june could be followed up by large distribution in Dec (we just don't know) but starting next year a new investment could work out
I do think a focused fund is the best chance to out perform in the large cap category.For those interested, this months Money has an aricle on Sequoia , Fairholme and FPA Crescent ;all funds with a great long term record and poor short term record.Like David they are most enthusiastic about FPA Crescent but I think unlike David least enthusiastic about Fairholme except for vey long term investors (20+ years) About Fairholme they noted that the fund invested in Sears in 2005 and has not sold its position.

Under the topic of: "Buying, Selling & Pondering" here is what I have been doing along with my thinking.
At these richly priced stock valuations I'm thinking of selling down more of my equities as they advance upward to new 52 week highs. This strategy is perhaps not for everyone; but, it is one I have followed for a good number of years with good success and one I learned from my late father and follows a buy low sell high theme.
Currently, my overall asset allocation for my master portfolio is 25% cash, 25% bonds, 30% domestic equity, 15% foreign equity and 5% other assets as of my most recent Morningstar Instant Xray analysis. In addition, within equities, I have been overweight the traditional defensive sectors of healthcare, consumer staples, utilities along with communication services and real estate. Combined these sectors account for better than one half of my portfolio's sector weightings and puts them well overweight to their sector weightings found in the S&P 500 Index. Year-to-date my portfolio has performed well with a total return of better than seven percent, 7%, (including cash) plus a little trading activity (buying during pullbacks and then rebalancing after the rebound) has enhanced my portfolio's performance. In addition, since I have stayed invested along my asset allocation guide lines, utlizing some adpative allocation strategies, I have enjoyed the income benefit that my portfolio provides.
In compairson, the Lipper Balanced Index has returned through the same reporting period 5.1%.
I wish all ... "Good Investing."
Old_Skeet

Thanks to each of you for sharing your strategies. I always learn a great deal from the wonderful members of this board... thanks so much for the detailed posts... You also help me hold in check some of my animal instincts...

Bought long treasuries ( TLT ) on Friday near close to hold for 3rd quarter. During neutral / high risk years, favorable bond market setup during 3rd quarters has led to statistically significant positive outcomes. seekingalpha.com/instablog/1109542-market-map/4897108-market-map-allocates-long-bond

Under the topic of: "Buying, Selling & Pondering" here is what I have been doing along with my thinking.
At these richly priced stock valuations I'm thinking of selling down more of my equities as they advance upward to new 52 week highs. This strategy is perhaps not for everyone; but, it is one I have followed for a good number of years with good success and one I learned from my late father and follows a buy low sell high theme.
Currently, my overall asset allocation for my master portfolio is 25% cash, 25% bonds, 30% domestic equity, 15% foreign equity and 5% other assets as of my most recent Morningstar Instant Xray analysis. In addition, within equities, I have been overweight the traditional defensive sectors of healthcare, consumer staples, utilities along with communication services and real estate. Combined these sectors account for better than one half of my portfolio's sector weightings and puts them well overweight to their sector weightings found in the S&P 500 Index. Year-to-date my portfolio has performed well with a total return of better than seven percent, 7%, (including cash) plus a little trading activity (buying during pullbacks and then rebalancing after the rebound) has enhanced my portfolio's performance. In addition, since I have stayed invested along my asset allocation guide lines, utlizing some adpative allocatin strategies, I have enjoyed the income benefit that my portfolio provides.
In compairson, the Lipper Balanced Index has returned through the same reporting period 5.1%.
I wish all ... "Good Investing."
Old_Skeet

Good job Old_Skeet.
And nice post.
Always good to read your posts.

@teapot.

1) Does every category use the same top % as Owl fund threshold line?

If I understand your question, yes. MFO return ratings are relative to peers, so done for each category. MFO risk ratings are relative to overall US market (SP500). Here is link to definitions.

2) For miraculous search, can you enhance it to allow multi-category/type search (similar to what Fidelity research mutual fund screen offers)?

On the premium site, you can search up to 25 categories simultaneously, along with some 50 other parameters. Here is link to MultiSearch parameter list.
We decided a while back to maintain the search tools on main site in current form and put all recommendations received from David and MFO community into the premium search tools site.

3) Is it possible to display those measurement (e.g, Ulcer, Martin) for the same time period for all funds? You already have those numbers. What I would like to see is for age group of 5 years, the result will also include those funds over five years but will only calculate for the past 5 years not the life period of funds. So it is easy to compare between lines in the same period.

On the premium site, you have 21 selectable evaluation periods (lifetime, 20, 10, 5, 3, and 1 year, plus full, down, and up market cycles) for all risk and performance metrics to enable the direct comparisons you describe. Here is link to display metrics.
We will be adding even more evaluation periods to the premium site, but intend to leave the main site search tools in legacy form.

4) How about offering premium member on a quarter basis or a free 14 days trial?

Ultimately that is up to David. From my perspective, I think we provide enough insight into all that is available on the premium site through a myriad of screens shots on the welcome page (see lower right corner), periodic descriptions of new features in the monthly commentaries, and selected results on the discussion board. Enough to make a donation decision. Here is link to David's invitation letter when we launched the premium site last December after several months of beta testing.
Hope that helps.
Thanks again teapot.
c

Under the topic of: "Buying, Selling & Pondering" here is what I have been doing along with my thinking.
At these richly priced stock valuations I'm thinking of selling down more of my equities as they advance upward to new 52 week highs. This strategy is perhaps not for everyone; but, it is one I have followed for a good number of years with good success and one I learned from my late father and follows a buy low sell high theme.
Currently, my overall asset allocation for my master portfolio is 25% cash, 25% bonds, 30% domestic equity, 15% foreign equity and 5% other assets as of my most recent Morningstar Instant Xray analysis. In addition, within equities, I have been overweight the traditional defensive sectors of healthcare, consumer staples, utilities along with communication services and real estate. Combined these sectors account for better than one half of my portfolio's sector weightings and puts them well overweight to their sector weightings found in the S&P 500 Index. Year-to-date my portfolio has performed well with a total return of better than seven percent, 7%, (including cash) plus a little trading activity (buying during pullbacks and then rebalancing after the rebound) has enhanced my portfolio's performance. In addition, since I have stayed invested along my asset allocation guide lines, utlizing some adpative allocation strategies, I have enjoyed the income benefit that my portfolio provides.
In compairson, the Lipper Balanced Index has returned through the same reporting period 5.1%.
I wish all ... "Good Investing."
Old_Skeet

Does anyone know of a website that tracks the percentage of qualified Vs. non qualified dividends that are paid out for OEFs or ETFs? I noticed that it's not exactly easy to find. As someone who invests for income as a major part of my objective, the difference between taxes on qualified dividends vs. non qualified can make a big difference over several years.

@Charles
Thank you for your explanation.
1) Does every category use the same top % as Owl fund threshold line?
2) For miraculous search, can you enhance it to allow multi-category/type search (similar to what Fidelity research mutual fund screen offers)?
3) Is it possible to display those measurement (e.g, Ulcer, Martin) for the same time period for all funds? You already have those numbers. What I would like to see is for age group of 5 years, the result will also include those funds over five years but will only calculate for the past 5 years not the life period of funds. So it is easy to compare between lines in the same period.
4) How about offering premium member on a quarter basis or a free 14 days trial?
Thanks.

I think that you have to balance the risk of a capital loss with income for that time frame and goal.
The only one in that group that make sense to me it PONDX. You get a 7.33% return. So if it were to decline 15% over 2 years you would break even - a low risk occurrence. The the others return is so low that with even a minor decline you would lose money.
You might look at DSL, PREMX, to add to the mix wit PONDX.

Several markets including the S&P and U.S. Treasuries now sit at all-time highs. So I guess this disproves the bearish sentiments voiced in recent months by many on this board, in the press and among investment advisors. Proof-positive that forecasting doesn't work. But I'd not be so quick to judge. I'm somewhat agnostic on the whole issue. But I'll acknowledge that it's fun to gloat when you find yourself on the winning side of an argument - however short-lived.
Often missing from critical discussions of forecasting is reference to the multiple methods and approaches used. Rather than attacking the general concept, it might be better if folks looked at the wide variety of techniques utilized. It is perhaps a disservice to those who dare voice their market timing schemes without addressing the specifics of how they attempt to do so. To that end I've linked a Wikipedia article addressing the topic in greater detail. At the end of my sermon I've attempted to list many of the forecasting techniques mentioned in that article. You'll find that several different techniques have been mentioned favorably by MFO participants over the years.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forecasting
I agree that over very long time horizons, Bogle's reversion to the mean holds true. Since our life-spans and levels of patience don't always coincide nicely with those long time frames, I see some logic in investors attempting to forcast nearer-term movements - however imperfect it may seem. In effect: some are willing to forgoe some of Mr. Market's anticipated long-term returns for what they see as lower near-term volatity and a higher level of comfort.
Summary of forecasting methods - From Wikipedia (edited)
Qualitative method
Quantitate method
Average approach
Naïve approach
Drift method
Seasonal naïve approach
Time series methods
- Moving average
- Weighted moving average
- Kalman filtering
- Exponential smoothing
- Autoregressive moving average (ARMA)
- Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)
- Seasonal ARIMA or SARIMA
- Extrapolation
- Linear prediction
- Trend estimation
- Growth curve (statistics)
Regression Analysis
Autoregressive moving average
Judgmental methods
- Composite forecasts
- Cooke's method
- Delphi method
- Forecast by analogy
- Scenario building
- Statistical surveys
- Technology forecasting
Artificial intelligence methods
Artificial neural networks
Group method of data handling
Support vector machines
Data mining
Machine Learning
Pattern Recognition
Seasonality
Cyclical behavior
Point is: I think it a bit unfair to lump all forecasting approaches together under one umbrella in considering their validity or their desirability for various types of investors.

@teapot.
Ha! You and lots of other investors in commodities and EM these last few years.
GO distinctions are based on a fund's relative risk-adjusted return within category. So, the category can perform badly, like commodities and EM have done last few years ... indeed among the most hated funds, but individual funds can still get high marks.
BRCNX and JOEMX have both delivered top quintile performance the past 3 and 5 year periods in their respective categories.
Here is screenshot from premium site for BRCNX, showing strong relative performance during tough periods of absolute performance:

Hope that helps.
Very much appreciate the feedback/suggestions. If you have any other issues/questions, do not hesitate to post/contact us.
Thanks again.
c