Hi Guys,
Jack Bogle is a great man. He changed the investment business forever and in so doing he significantly reduced investment costs for all investors. I remember when the entry costs for buying a mutual fund were obnoxious. Yes, for the last 40 or so
years, Bogle has sung the same song. But it is a song that has revolutionalized an industry to its very core and deserves repititions.
Index investing now owns roughly 30% of the mutual fund industry market share and is gaining every day. Even a giant agency like the state of California is firing some of their active investment management and replacing them with Index advocates. Returns are likely to improve with that decision as costs are reduced and bad decisions are eliminated.
Index investing will never totally replace active investing management. We need active investors for price discovery purposes. I have seen TV shows that estimated we only need about a 20% to 30% active market players to satisfy that purpose. Indexing still has a long growth potential.
There is reliable data on the average fund holding period for the individual investor. It's about 3
years. Equity fund investors hold their funds for a little over 3
years while bond fund holders are slightly less patient at just under a 3-year average period.
That trading frequency generates sad outcomes for the average fund holder since his return is only about 1/2 of what the fund he invests in earns. Women do better with their investment decisions than their male counterparts.
Here is a Link to the DALBAR site that has a ton of investor data:
https://www.qaib.com/public/qaibquarterlyI suspect most MFOers do not subscribe to the DALBAR service for access. So here is a Link to a brief summary of the DALBAR data designed to encourage a sale of their service:
http://www.dalbar.com/Portals/dalbar/cache/News/PressReleases/DALBAR Pinpoints Investor Pain 2015.pdfThis DALBAR summary tells the sad tale without comment. Here is another Link that interprets these same investor data sets:
https://blog.folioinvesting.com/2012/05/11/the-most-common-mistake-investors-make/Enjoy. I hope many MFOers are among the more patient investors. Trading frequently is indeed hazardous to our wealth.
Best Wishes.
Additional Input: I referenced the DALBAR research without providing an accessible Link. I just discovered a Link that does yield an example of the DALBAR work. Here is that Link:
https://www.bellmontsecurities.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/2015-DALBAR-QAIB-study.pdfI have not read their report in detail, but it appears to support the observation that individual investors suck on average. Of course, no MFOers are average!