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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Vanguard International Explorer
    James Anderson (Ballie Gifford) retired from VWIGX / VWILX in 2022. Fund has a concentrated growth strategy that is hard to replicate, so the new team has to prove itself. Now it lags indexed VTIAX / VXUS for 1, 2, 3 years with higher volatility.
    Vanguard has been tinkering with VINEX for a long time and this is just the latest. Ballie Gifford was probably let go because of its inconsistent concentrated-growth strategy.
  • Vanguard International Explorer
    Ballie Gifford is a well-regarded investment firm.
    They have co-managed Vanguard International Growth (VWILX) for many years along with Schroder Investment Management.
    VWILX has generated good long-term returns (with considerable volatility).
    Maybe Ballie Gifford's strategy did not mesh well with Wellington and Schroder at Vanguard International Explorer (VINEX)?
  • S&P 500 slides into correction territory as Trump trade wars spook investors
    @a2z, excellent post. Perfectly summarizes the MAGA lens.
    https://apnews.com/article/trumps-comments-about-stock-market-dba336a82ffaf000b80e7218d749995a
    A look at some of Trump’s observations on the stock market over the last year:
    Jan. 29, 2024, on Truth Social
    “THIS IS THE TRUMP STOCK MARKET BECAUSE MY POLLS AGAINST BIDEN ARE SO GOOD THAT INVESTORS ARE PROJECTING THAT I WILL WIN, AND THAT WILL DRIVE THE MARKET UP — EVERYTHING ELSE IS TERRIBLE (WATCH THE MIDDLE EAST!), AND RECORD SETTING INFLATION HAS ALREADY TAKEN ITS TOLL. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN”

    March 12, 2024, on Truth Social

    “High Interest Rates and Inflation are choking our great middle class, and ALL, our Economy is bad, and our Stock Market is rising only because Polls are strongly indicating that we will WIN the Presidential Election of 2024.”
    April 25, 2024, on his way into court for his criminal trial in New York
    “The stock market is, in a sense, crashing. The numbers are very bad. This is Bidenomics. It’s catching up with him. It’s lucky that it’s catching up before he leaves office as opposed to after he leaves office.”
    May 15, 2024, on Truth Social
    “Thank you to Scott Bessent, one of the Great Prognosticators on Wall Street! There are many people that are saying that the only reason the Stock Market is high is because I am leading in all of the Polls, and if I don’t win, we will have a CRASH of similar proportions to 1929. I agree, but let’s hope we don’t have to worry about that!”
    May 18, 2024, at an NRA event in Dallas, Texas:
    “We are a nation whose stock market’s continued success is contingent on MAGA winning the next election.”
    July 16, 2024, on Truth Social
    “Dow Jones UP 742 based on the fact that the Market expects a TRUMP WIN in November! Nice compliment — Thank you!”
    Aug 4, 2024 on Truth Social
    “STOCK MARKETS CRASHING. I TOLD YOU SO!!! KAMALA DOESN’T HAVE A CLUE. BIDEN IS SOUND ASLEEP. ALL CAUSED BY INEPT U.S. LEADERSHIP!”
    Aug. 14, 2024, at a rally in Asheville, North Carolina
    “If Harris wins this election, the result will be a Kamala economic crash, a 1929-style depression. 1929. When I win the election, we will immediately begin a brand new Trump economic boom. It’ll be a boom. We’re going to turn this country around so fast. Many people say that they only reason the stock market is up is because people think I am going to win.”
    Oct. 29, 2024, during a rally in Allentown, Pennsylvania
    “You want to see a market crash? If we lost this election, I think the market would go down the tubes.”
    Nov. 4, 2024, at a rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan
    Trump started praising Bessent and said: “You know what his theory is? The stock market is the only sign of life, and it’s only going up because everyone thinks Trump is going to win the election. And others, too. Others, too. I’m seeing it a lot. I think they’re following your lead. But I appreciate that confidence.”
    Nov. 14, 2024, at a Mar-a-Lago gala in Florida:
    “We had three or four of the highest -- I guess, almost every single day, we set new records in the stock market. We set new records economically.”
    Trump, in comments directed at House Speaker Mike Johnson, then said: “Mr. Speaker, I think it’s important, maybe you should pass a bill, you have to start my term from Nov. 5, OK, or Nov. 6, if you want. Nov. 5 because the market has gone through the roof. Enthusiasm has doubled.”
    Dec. 12, 2024, in an interview with CNBC at the New York Stock Exchange:
    Trump was asked by host Jim Cramer whether it’s still the case that stock market indexes were a good barometer of his performance.
    “Well, I think I’ve always said, you know, to me, stock market is very — all of it, you know, all of it together, it’s very important. It’s an honor to be here in New York Stock Exchange. I sort of joked that I actually bought the building across the street because the stock exchange was here. It’s a big deal.”
    Dec. 16, 2024, during a news conference at Mar-a-Lago
    Trump was asked whether he is concerned that his tariffs might hurt the stock market.
    “Make our country rich. Tariffs will make our country rich,” Trump responded.
    Jan. 7, 2025, during a news conference at Mar-a-Lago

    “Since my election, the stock market has set records. The S&P 500 index has broken above 6,000 points for the first time ever, never even close.”
    Jan. 19, 2025, at a rally in Washington, D.C.
    “Everyone is calling it the — I don’t want to say this. It’s too braggadocious, but we’ll say it anyway — the Trump effect. It’s you. You’re the effect. Since the election, the stock market has surged, and small business optimism has soared, a record 41 points to a 39-year high.”
    Feb. 19, 2025, at an investment conference in Miami Beach
    “I think the stock market is going to be great. In other words, we will rapidly grow our economy by dramatically shrinking the federal government.”
    Feb. 21, 2025, speaking to the nation’s governors at the White House
    “When we turned over the reins, the stock market was higher than just previous to COVID coming in, which was an amazing achievement.”
    House Speaker Mike Johnson of La., right, and Vice President JD Vance, left, listen as President Donald Trump addresses a joint session of Congress at the Capitol in Washington, March 4, 2025. (AP Photo/Ben Curtis)
    House Speaker Mike Johnson of La., right, and Vice President JD Vance, left, listen as President Donald Trump addresses a joint session of Congress at the Capitol in Washington, March 4, 2025. (AP Photo/Ben Curtis)
    March 4, 2025, in a joint address to Congress
    Having sparked a North American trade war and with the S&P 500 losing all of its post-election gains, Trump said in his speech to Congress: “Tariffs are about making America rich again and making America great again, and it’s happening and it will happen rather quickly. There’ll be a little disturbance, but we’re OK with that. It won’t be much.”
    March 9, 2025, in a taped interview on Fox News Channel’s “Sunday Morning Futures”
    After a week of wild swings on Wall Street over uncertainty about his tariffs, Trump was asked whether he was expecting a recession in 2025. He said: “I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition because what we’re doing is very big. We’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing.” He added, “It takes a little time. It takes a little time. But I think it should be great for us.”
    Elsewhere in the interview, when Trump was asked about the market going down: “You can’t really watch the stock market. ... You can’t go by that. You have to do what’s right.”
    March 9, 2025, to reporters on Air Force One
    When asked about his hesitation during the “Sunday Morning Futures” interview before answering the recession question, Trump said: “I tell you what, of course you hesitate. Who knows? All I know is this: We’re going to take in hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs, and we’re going to become so rich you’re not going to know where to spend all that money. I’m telling you, you just watch.”
    President Donald Trump arrives to speak at the Business Roundtable quarterly meeting in Washington, Tuesday, March 11, 2025, as Business Roundtable Chair and Cisco Chairman and CEO Chuck Robbins watches. (Pool via AP)
    President Donald Trump arrives to speak at the Business Roundtable quarterly meeting in Washington, March 11, 2025, as Business Roundtable Chair and Cisco Chairman and CEO Chuck Robbins watches. (Pool via AP)
    March 11, 2025, to reporters at the White House
    Trump was asked about the market after a selloff Monday and more trembling on the markets Tuesday. “Markets are going to go up and they’re going to go down. We have to rebuild our country,” he said.
    In response to a question about whether his tariffs caused the turmoil in the markets, Trump said: “Biden gave us a horrible economy. He gave us horrible inflation. And I think the market was going to go very, very bad. If anything, I have a lot of very smart people, friends of mine, and great businessmen. They’re not investing because of what I’ve done.”
    On whether he thinks there will be a recession: “I don’t see it at all. I think this country’s going to boom. But as I said, I can do it the easy way or the hard way. The hard way to do it is exactly what I’m doing, but the results are going to be 20 times greater. Remember, Trump is always right.”
    March 12, 2025, to reporters at the White House
    While giving a long answer to a question about his trade policies, Trump said, “I think a lot of the stock market going down was because of the really bad four years that we had, when you look at inflation and all of the other problems, I mean wars and inflation and so many others problems.”
    Later in his remarks, Trump said he is bringing back the country financially and said: “Financially, we’ll be stronger than ever before. I think the markets are gonna soar when they see what’s happening.”.
  • Barron's Revisits Pimco Income
    M* data doesn't show ROC for PONAX / PIMIX.
    PONAX / PIMIX does set a monthly distribution level at the beginning of the year and it does so conservatively so that there may be an extra yearend distribution (still from income).
    ROCs are more common for CEFs. But PDI hasn't distributed ROC in recent years (despite 19a reports) although PDO and PAXS have made small ROC distributions.
  • Macquarie Global Allocation Fund to be reorganized
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/883622/000113743925000223/497.htm
    497 1 497.htm
    IVY FUNDS
    Macquarie Global Allocation Fund (formerly, Delaware Ivy Wilshire Global Allocation Fund)
    (the “Fund”)
    Supplement to the Fund’s Summary Prospectus (as amended), Statutory Prospectus (as amended) and Statement of Additional Information (as amended), each dated October 30, 2024
    On February 11-13, 2025, the Board of Trustees of Ivy Funds approved the reorganization of the Fund (Reorganization) into and with a substantially similar fund and class of Macquarie Balanced Fund, a series of Ivy Funds. Subject to the requisite shareholder approval, the Reorganization is now expected to take place on or about June 27, 2025 (Reorganization Date).
    As noted in the supplement dated February 13, 2025, no contingent deferred sales charge will be assessed in connection with any redemption of shares of the Fund prior to the Reorganization.
    Effective one week before the Reorganization Date, the Fund will close to new investors and existing shareholders.
    Prior to the closing of the Reorganization, the Fund will distribute to its shareholders, in one or more distributions, all of its income and gains (net of available capital loss carryovers) not previously distributed for taxable years ending on or prior to the Reorganization Date.
    Because everyone’s tax situation is unique, you should consult your tax professional about federal, state, local, or foreign tax consequences before making an investment in the Fund or acting on a distribution check.
    Delaware Management Company is an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Macquarie Group Limited (MGL). None of the entities noted in this document is an authorized deposit-taking institution for the purposes of the Banking Act 1959 (Commonwealth of Australia) and the obligations of these entities do not represent deposits or other liabilities of Macquarie Bank Limited ABN 46 008 583 542 (Macquarie Bank). Macquarie Bank does not guarantee or otherwise provide assurance in respect of the obligations of these entities. In addition, if this document relates to an investment (a) each investor is subject to investment risk including possible delays in repayment and loss of income and principal invested and (b) none of Macquarie Bank or any other Macquarie Group company guarantees any particular rate of return on or the performance of the investment, nor do they guarantee repayment of capital in respect of the investment.
    Please keep this Supplement for future reference.
    This Supplement is dated March 18, 2025.
  • vanguard mutual fund tax import option?
    (update: web search indicates clearly broken, no fix pending, reputations preserved.)
    quick question, has turbotax or vanguard killed \ broken this option?
    not the brokerage import, but the very basic vanguard mutual fund -only account that worked for past ~15 years.
  • Barron's Revisits Pimco Income
    Once a product is out in the market place for sometime, I normally do not read the prospectus to learn about the product. To me, no point looking past the evidence. I just keep staring at the evidence until it sinks in. Disclosure: I have not owned PIMIX for some years. But I can endorse it to any buy and hold investor.
    BTW, PIMIX used to have a managed distribution policy (and it might still have). So, it can get a bit inefficient trying to hit the target but my experience was that it shot for total return and as a proof, sometimes it made ROC distributions. I think it is a good product.
    My last post in this thread.
  • Barron's Revisits Pimco Income
    I'm a slow bond funds trader looking for a consistent lower SD funds with good performance, regardless of what the fund own.
    PImix stopped doing that in 01/2018.
    Cloz has been amazing for at least 1.5 years. The magic disappeared too.
    Chances I would own PIMIX is low and definitely not at a higher %.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    3.18- Took profit on EWH (Hong Kong). The price looks stretched after a big move up.
    Purchased another tranche of PRCFX. - It continues to demonstrate muted volatility, with a proven manager (D. Giroux).
    In terms of optimizing returns on cash in taxable account, added to holdings in BOXX. -- This ETF (essentially) allows one to defer tax on T-bill like ETF, and, if one holds +1year, pay lower cap-gains rate on the accrued value. It essentially performs like a savings bond, but in an ETF wrapper. The ETF has garnered ~ $5.5 billion AUM in the 2+ years its been operating.
  • Morningstar on SOR Risks Early in Retirement
    Morningstar’s @JPtak reports that the S.O.R risks are quite high in the first 5 years of 30-yr retirement period. So, one should use more conservative allocations & withdrawals in those first 5 years. Also, the portfolio balances must be monitored closely during those 5 years & corrective actions should be taken if the portfolio drops precipitously.
    https://www.morningstar.com/retirement/how-avoid-outliving-your-retirement-savings-its-all-sequence
  • Barron's Revisits Pimco Income
    I have a special place in my heart for PIMIX.
    It was the first bond fund I owned and the longest from around 2010 to 01/2018 at 50+% for years.
    It was the fund I used to change my stock/bond % until I retired
    But since 01/2018, the magic has been gone. I sold and never looked back.
    The cheap, on sale MBS trade was gone. PIMIX AUM grew like no other.
    ...
    PIMIX is s still open...why?
    I stopped listening to PIMIX managers, no matter what the question is, they still like securitized/MBS for over 15 years.
    It doesn't matter to me what a fund made 3-5-15 years ago, I care what it has been doing lately with a look at the future.
    Add to PIMIX its derivatives and a black box tools and I'm skeptical.
    Is PIMIX a good fund? Sure, but I continue to stay away.
    what he said
  • “There’s No Recession Alarm in the Collective Wisdom of Markets”
    nothing more useless than single-day up\down comments. the investing mantra has gone in a few months (for some) from 'turbocharged USA!!'
    @a2z - Do as you will. No intent to tell you or anyone how to invest. Oh no! I wasn’t predicting anything. The evidence is still that a mild recession is in the works - may have already begun. But if you go back 2+ years on this board (January / February 2023) you will find posters already predicting it and raising cash in response. Kind of points out how hard it is to get the timing right.
    Just enjoying the ride this morning. Actually, I’m still positioned on the defensive side - but not by a lot. If you missed my point: It was the uniformity of the move across various asset classes that I found noteworthy. A lot of casual investors think only in terms of “stocks and bonds”. But there are many different ways to make money. A fall in “stocks” (usually thought of as the Dow, S&P or NASDAQ) does not necessarily mean that real estate, utilities, staples, oil, precious metals or Asian or European equities will also fall.
    If I may interject, it sounds as if your disdain for the political scene (I share it) may be affecting your investment outlook. I’d say nothing more useless than combining politics with making money. Trying to factor in / calculate the impact of a “personality” to that equation only makes it even more complicated.
    Have a nice day.
  • Barron's Revisits Pimco Income
    I have a special place in my heart for PIMIX.
    It was the first bond fund I owned and the longest from around 2010 to 01/2018 at 50+% for years.
    It was the fund I used to change my stock/bond % until I retired
    But since 01/2018, the magic has been gone. I sold and never looked back.
    The cheap, on sale MBS trade was gone. PIMIX AUM grew like no other.
    I found better funds to replace it, such IOFIX until ithe meltdown.
    For years now I stated that RCTIX invests mainly in securitized but have a better risk/reward and a much smaller AUM.
    https://schrts.co/NIzzEXtp
    PIMIX is s still open...why?
    I stopped listening to PIMIX managers, no matter what the question is, they still like securitized/MBS for over 15 years.
    It doesn't matter to me what a fund made 3-5-15 years ago, I care what it has been doing lately with a look at the future.
    Add to PIMIX it's derivatives and a black box tools and I'm skeptical.
    Is PIMIX a good fund? Sure, but I continue to stay away.
  • One time Social Security payments mystery

    Watching the Muskrats at SSA and reading YBB's post above, it almost reassures me that for many, many years I've not planned on SSA being a significant part of my retirement income that I would depend on ... if it's even around then. ;/
  • One time Social Security payments mystery
    When I turned 70 a few years back. I transitioned from freeloading off my wife's SSA record to benefits based on my own record. I started receiving two checks a month. Not good. They were deducting Medicare off both, of course. I called, I texted, I e-mailed, I visited the district office. Not interested. "They will catch it eventually." It took months. Then, of course, we differed on what the appropriate adjustment should be.
    My advice on an SSA issue is to do what it takes to force a resolution ASAP.
  • As global tariff tensions rise, here's the latest on U.S. trade with top partners
    Yep, its all part of encouraging bilateral trade discussions, by helping foreign govts to focus on making trade arrangements which are less dis-advantageous to the US, than most prior admins have done.
    S. Korea, I know a bit about -- have a friend who migrated from SK to the US. She volunteered that SK is extremely protectionist of its auto industry in particular. SK levies very heavy tariffs on any non SK autos. Meanwhile, they are given an easy / low-tariff market here in the states to sell plenty Kias and Hyundais.
    The trade rules have been grossly uneven for decades against the US and in favor of our trading 'partners'. I suspect a lot of it was to 'buy' military/strategic allies to contain the USSR -- basically, we allowed the US middle class to be destroyed -- offshored. The Cold War ended 35 years ago. Long since time to require reciprocal trading arrangements.
    Countries which will want access to our market will renegotiate/agree to the fair trade. Those that don't are free to develop their economies without a subsidy from the US working man/working woman.
  • Barron's Revisits Pimco Income

    Once upon a time, PIMIX was my largest position in dfd, Roth and taxable accounts. Had held/added to those positions over several years. Own none now. Was really un-impressed with PIMCO's performance across all of its funds in the 2022 bond bear. For being the 'best' bond mgr in the world, they handled rising rates like a deer in the headlights. JMHO.
    For those who like PIMIX's approach, there is a shorter-duration version PFTPX which might be of interest.
    On the ETF side, PYLD has some decent non-PIMCO competitors in the multi-sector space: JPIE, CGMS, and BINC. I own none currently, favoring the ultra-short space, But when time to nibble, I will likely give the nod to BINC.
  • “There’s No Recession Alarm in the Collective Wisdom of Markets”
    @larryB - Yes, my younger self also responded differently from the current me. I was w*rking in 2000 and 2008 then and socking money into my retirement funds while they were cheaper. My equity position was approx 75% at the time. As I entered retirement 7 years ago, I reduced to 35% and then during the 2020 recession I timidly added to stocks.
    I agree, this time may be completely different as noted by previous posters and threads. I have kept a significant (for me) cash stash, to aid my wife and me through this *downturn.* Enough to cover 2-3 years even if social security is impacted.
    So my head isn’t in the sand regarding our nation, economy, and stock market; and I’m not looking to be *right* in this post. I am looking for direction just like everyone here, and find evaluating the data that the stock market is giving, even if it becomes stale immediately, that’s what I’ve got.
    I may be looking at the wrong data and would always appreciate additional information.
  • “There’s No Recession Alarm in the Collective Wisdom of Markets”
    At Level5. Speaking for myself,,,, how I responded to significant market events 18 or ten years before retirement has little in common with my response in 2025. Younger me was out to grow my nest egg and old me is out to preserve it. The fear factor is real and that doesn’t even factor in that this time really is different. The rule of law no longer applies. Maybe in six months the fog of war will lift but maybe in 20 months a national emergency will be declared and the mid terms will be called off. Nobody knows.
  • The Mounting Case Against U.S. Stocks
    there is certainly nothing booming quite like the MAGA economic excuses sector.
    it has dethroned doomsaying clickbait , wrong for 4 years, but still going strong.