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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Scottrade's new 90 day fund fees.
    Vanguard Brokerage Services, like Fidelity, also imposes a $50 short term redemption fee for NTF shares sold within 60 days. There are some brokerages that do not add their own short term redemption fee to any that the fund might impose. When I posted on this three years ago, WellsTrade didn't add any short term fee of its own.
    This may be obvious, but you can avoid all brokerage fees by buying funds directly.
    You won't get access to institutional class funds that way (brokerages often reduce the min required), but if you're looking at short term positions, the 25 basis point difference between retail and institutional class shares won't add much to your costs.
    Check into the fund family's wire fees - they're likely less than the broker would charge for a short term redemption, and wiring should give you access to the cash just as fast as selling at a brokerage. For example, DoubleLine's wire fee is $15 - less even than Scottrade's old $17 short term redemption fee.
  • PTIAX portfolio followup
    We had an earlier discussion on PTIAX, where I said I'd contact the fund and get back on some of the details about the portfolio. I was finally able to speak at some length with one of the analysts, so here's the Cliff Notes version.
    * Credit quality: The munis are basically A, with only a few BBBs and nothing below investment grade. For the mostly non-agency mortgages, it's the same thing Gundlach always says: credit ratings alone aren't very helpful for evaluating older, higher-yielding mortgages, since there haven't been any revisions since the typical downgrades of the financial crisis era. PTIAX invests only in prime and Alt-A, no subprime, so the credit quality of their holdings is comparatively good for the asset class.
    * Duration: The munis fall in ~ the 7-8y range, and the mortgages (on paper, by the usual calculation) are ~ 4-5. (But see the 'graf below on their take on using duration as a metric.)
    * Strategy: As is pretty obvious by the holdings, it's a strategy that attempts to balance risks. On the rate-sensitive side of the scale, as tax-exempt munis have moved into historical fair value range (based on the spread to Treasuries), they've moved some of that part of the portfolio to taxable munis, which they regard as still a decent value. They've also added a single-digit stake in IG corporates, but are going slow in that department and still regard IG corps as peripheral to the strategy.
    * Duration and their process: they regard duration as interesting but not definitive, not in their top tier of evaluation metrics. For example, the mortgages they use in the portfolio, on paper ~ a duration of 4-5, typically don't move much if any when there's a rate bump. Their process, "Shape Management," starts with rate and credit-based analysis, but the critical piece is "a forward projection of a fixed-income security’s total return characteristics over a variety of interest rate scenarios, yield curve shifts, and time horizons." (The "shape" is the shape of returns under different scenarios.)
    Thus endeth the dissertation. These guys are still very helpful; the delay in responding was apparently due to the ramping-up of the operation that's going on now.
    Best, AJ
    Edit to add: To clarify on the non-agency mortgages, they're what show on, say, the M* portfolio page as the below-IG part of the portfolio, based on the ratings of years ago, which the PTIAX folks think aren't very accurate today.
  • SMEAD VALUE FUND: 4Q 2015 Webcast Presentation
    @lljb, thanks for the site suggestion. I explored it and the manual process on M* as well where you can enter start and end dates. But it is too laborious for the number of runs needed. If I had the raw data, I could probably write a script in less than an hour to do it but don't have any access to raw pricing data from multiple years and with corrections for distributions.
    @expatsp, given that all market sectors go through cycles, one could have pretty much have an opinion on any combination of sectors as the place to be and they will be proved right some time. But what does that do to the investor portfolios meanwhile? Hussman is still waiting for his bear market to make money he has been losing. How can a retail investor evaluate whether a strategy will pay off or not? If they did, they wouldn't need a professional manager!
    In baseball terms, it is the difference between a hitter that looks for a specific ball to hit and strikes out if he doesn't get it and one who takes the balls as they come and manufactures hits. I would much prefer my fund manager to be of the latter type even though the former might hit one out of the ball park much more dramatically when he gets the ball he is looking for and prepared for. The team might lose while he is waiting for it.
  • SMEAD VALUE FUND: 4Q 2015 Webcast Presentation
    I remember reading some opinion pieces Smead posted (on Seeking Alpha, I think) soon after he opened the fund in 2008, and he made what at the time was a bold call: commodities were a poor investment and the U.S. consumer was going to bounce back. He invested appropriately (consumer cyclical, finance, and health are over 90% of his portfolio) and outperformed as a result, though it took a couple of years for him to be proven right.
    Whether or not he was brilliant or lucky in making that big call I don't know (and I don't own the fund) but that big call explains both his early underperformance and subsequent recovery.
    Which makes me think that there's no metric out there which can substitute paying attention to a manager's strategy. You all know what Mark Twain said about statistics, I'm sure...
  • SMEAD VALUE FUND: 4Q 2015 Webcast Presentation
    @lljb, you are right. My first reading of those slides was wrong. He was badmouthing the critics not Bill Miller by quoting the badmouthing of Bill Miller by the critics. So, I take that part back and apologies to Mr. Smead for that mischaracterization.
    The critics weren't doing anything other than echoing the sentiments of the passive indexing over active indexing crowd that saw the fall of Bill Miller as validation of their long-held views. I don't see this is necessarily foolish because there are good reasons for criticizing the performance of active managers as a whole.
    Ironically, his argument against the criticism relies on the same calendar year metric that I show above can hide the performance real investors may see in the funds relative to the index.
    Just to note, I am not doing an indexing vs active argument here. My point is that bad metrics make it difficult to select good active funds that may exist from bad/lucky ones.
    Here is an idea for the site owners since they seem to have the data and the computing capability.
    What if you computed a metric that calculated the 1yr, 3yr, 5yr returns as an average and variance to the index over multiple runs of the fund each with a single purchase at the beginning of each month since inception and held for that period of time? Right now, the metrics say what happens if investors purchase only at the beginning of the year which is very artificial and subject to gaming by fund managers.
    Wouldn't this be a more valid indicator of what an investor coming across a fund and purchasing without paying attention to the calendar can expect from the fund? This would make explicit any destructive effect of the fund's volatility if they tend to be volatile and can burn investors. Would the great owls be still be great owls using this metric? If a fund had a long and distributed poor performance periods with some lucky short spikes then this would expose the destructive power of such underperformance even if the fund managed a tiny gain in enough years from such spikes to look great in current metrics.
    The second metric would be adding a fixed investment every month for each run above as might happen in a retirement fund or a disciplined investing plan. This is for investors in the accumulation phase. The complement would be withdrawing a fixed amount each month during that run.
    Isn't it worth doing this experiment if the current metrics have the potential of misleading investors setting false expectations of what a fund is likely to do even when future performance mimics past performance? Is it feasible or such metrics already available?
  • SMEAD VALUE FUND: 4Q 2015 Webcast Presentation
    First, I would be turned off by the lead manager. He seems to have a habit of badmouthing. Foolish this and that. But the showstopper would have been the way he tore into Bill Miller in this presentation.
    Maybe I missed the point during the call so I'm sorry if that's the case, but I didn't hear him tear into Bill Miller at all. My take on what he was saying was that Miller was an incredible guy, outperforming for 15 straight years and as soon as he didn't all the critics came out of the woodwork. But he showed Miller's performance after the criticism and he was back at the top, hence I took his comments to suggest those who criticized were "Foolish Critics", the title of the presentation. He was making the same argument about Buffett- that people are criticizing him for recent performance but Smead thinks they have it wrong.
    Just for the sake of transparency I don't own Smead's fund but I do pay attention to him and his fund because I think he has some reasonably good ideas about the future, mostly related to the impact millennials will have.
  • Fund Focus: Wellesley Income Fund
    FYI: It wasn’t that long ago that many were calling an end to the out-performance that has persisted for years in the Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund (VWIAX[1]) in light of rising interest rate concerns. After all, how could a fund shackled by a prospectus rule to hold an abundance of fixed-income ever outperform high yield strategies near the low end of an interest rate cycle?
    It just goes to show that there is no replacement for common sense asset management during a difficult year in the market. As a result of their expertise, the $40 billion juggernaut VWIAX was recently named Morningstar’s Top Allocation fund for 2015[2].
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://investorplace.com/2016/01/vanguard-wellesley-income-fund-shines-on/print
    M* Snapshot VWINX: (Investor Shares)
    http://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/VWINX/quote.html
    Lipper Snapshot VWINX:
    http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/Fund/VWINX?countrycode=US
    VWINX Is Rank #5 In The (CA) Fund Category By U.S. News & World Report:
    http://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/conservative-allocation/vanguard-wellesley®-income-fund/vwinx
  • SMEAD VALUE FUND: 4Q 2015 Webcast Presentation
    @rjb112, the quick-glance metric you have pointed out is a good example of why the performance metrics as published can be misleading (and why managers try to game the numbers each calendar year). Investors don't always invest by calendar years. And barely beating the index one year isn't much of a comfort to an investor if you have lost much more the previous period.
    For example,
    The 11 month performance in 2008 is missing in that table and was a bad one for the fund losing about 42%+ of its value compared to the approx 36%+ loss for S&P 500 in the same period. It is the bounce back from this deep loss that it managed to recover some in 2009 so 2009 by itself looks as if it beat the market but investors who invested with the fund in 2008 were still under water relative to S&P 500. Trailed index again in 2010 and didn't even make back all of that trailing deficit in 2011 although it looks like it beat the index that calendar year in your table. In fact, the people who started with the fund or soon after didn't see anything over the S&P 500 up until that one good run in 2012-2013 more than 4 years later.
    The one continuous period I mentioned from mid 2012 to mid 2013 is what makes the 2012 and 2013 calendar years look good. 2014 and 2015 are index hugging years for all practical purposes. If you look closer at 2014 unless you were invested in the first three months of 2014, your portfolio would have trailed the index even in that year.
    If you had invested in 2013 after its one good run ended (still in a rising bull market) you would be trailing the S&P 500 again todate.
    All this shows is that except for that one good run, the fund is just more volatile than the index and when you have such a fund, real investor returns suffer unless you were lucky to time the few entry and exit points correctly. It seems to give back all the advantage in down markets. I do not want to confuse this with the IRR values computed by M* and blaming it on bad trading by investors. The point I am trying to make applies to all investors that just invest and hold but aren't lucky in when they enter/exit this fund to make the fund worth it. Even holding for a long period may not help in such a fund if you weren't in it for its one good relatively short run.
    My point is that this is why many investors think they have chosen a good fund because all published metrics look good and yet may see that their returns are nothing to justify the high fees such funds charge. This has certainly been my experience in selecting funds based only on such easy to digest tables and metrics ratings even when it has a boatload of numbers as available on this site.
    Better metrics can perhaps be designed that try to make the performance metrics as insensitive as possible to when the investment began or ended perhaps by aggregating over a large number of random periods or some model of typical disciplined investor behavior such as monthly deposits/withdrawals each month. Also perhaps metrics that try to detect such continuous good runs and compare relative to other periods to see whether the fund is a one hit wonder or is regularly outperforming even if it has down years. I would chose a fund to buy and hold that did well in the latter even if it didn't beat the index in every calendar year which is a very artificial construct that fund managers try to game to look good to gather assets.
  • SMEAD VALUE FUND: 4Q 2015 Webcast Presentation
    "Then I took a look at the fund performance. It is a classic index hugger.....and a poor one at that and would have done poorly if it wasn't for one period between June 2012 and August 2013. That time frame with a reasonably well defined start and end suggests the fund had one or two positions that over performed. Typical stock momentum for high flying stocks last about that much time. If the fund didn't have that, it would look bad relative to S&P 500. In fact, almost all of the good metrics for the fund can be traced to that period.

    If you had bought into that fund after that period, for most such buys you might have experienced index hugging or worse performance. For the 4.5 years before that period, the fund had lagged the S&P. Now you can see why such blind metrics can be really misleading
    "fund that didn't have such a one-hit wonder quality to it"
    take a look at the calendar year performance since inception.
    It beat the market and its category in 6 out of the 7 years.
    A pretty consistent outperformance rather than just a single period of 14 months
    image
    Cheers
  • SMEAD VALUE FUND: 4Q 2015 Webcast Presentation
    I find no compelling reason to invest in this fund even if it was open.
    I hope this post is not a faux pas as it might be construed as a criticism of the fund profiling and metrics done on this site. But that is not the intent. I have been frustrated quite often by selecting funds based on the usual Lipper, MorningStar, etc as they looked great on paper and came highly recommended but never delivered for my investment.. So this applies to all of such fund evaluation techniques.
    I am thinking that by looking at the metrics above and the fund profiling linked above, that this is a fund that would be seen favorably here. I realize that "past performance is no predictor of future performance" is the explanation when that does not work as expected but I think that is just CYA. One could say the same thing about any metric including those that had zero correlation with anything that happened in the future. So one has to look at the performance/validity of the metric itself.
    I have never considered this fund before but would never have chosen this fund looking at the performance a little more carefully than what is blindly captured by metrics and the accompanying presentation.
    It looks great on paper with a positive 5yr alpha over S&P 500. But I am sure everyone has had experience with funds that looked great and yet their returns when invested were very disappointing. People chalk it up to that "past performance ..." thing but I would believe that a fund like this one could be positively predicted to disappoint more investors than not in the future compared to say just a S&P 500 fund/etf by underperforming relative to that benchmark.
    First, I would be turned off by the lead manager. He seems to have a habit of badmouthing. Foolish this and that. But the showstopper would have been the way he tore into Bill Miller in this presentation. I don't know Bill Miller personally nor have I invested in his fund. In my career where I have to evaluate the future performance of people very often and with not a lot of information, people who use a lot of time to badmouth others very seldom deliver. It shows a lack of class here which some people might not care about but to me it also shows a lack of judgment because that whole section looks personal. A manager that gets that personal or emotional will make judgment mistakes. It was highly unnecessary to do so against a peer/competitor and moreover does not imply he can do better himself in his own style. I expect the culture he will set in his company with that attitude will also be toxic. Even in the brief profile done on this site, he cannot help himself criticizing to toot his own horn.
    The presentation goes on and on about Brk.B. Why would that make the fund look good? There are any number of funds you can buy to get Brk.B exposure. Or is it to make the fund look good by association?
    Then I took a look at the fund performance. It is a classic index hugger with high 1.25% ER and a poor one at that and would have done poorly if it wasn't for one period between June 2012 and August 2013. That time frame with a reasonably well defined start and end suggests the fund had one or two positions that overperformed. Typical stock momentum for high flying stocks last about that much time. If the fund didn't have that, it would look bad relative to S&P 500. In fact, almost all of the good metrics for the fund can be traced to that period.
    If you had bought into that fund after that period, for most such buys you might have experienced index hugging or worse performance. For the 4.5 years before that period, the fund had lagged the S&P. Now you can see why such blind metrics can be really misleading. Not because of "past performance..." caveat but the actual past performance characteristics of the fund that might hint at a high probability of underperformance gets hidden in the statistical measures and ratings.
    What exactly is fhe reason to invest in a fund like this rather than the index itself or some other large blend style fund that didn't have such a one-hit wonder quality to it and didn't risk underperformance with a huge ER?
  • FAIRX ... Keep or Lose It
    Hi expatsp:
    I manage, or mismanage, retirement accounts for 2 kids and their spouses. Bought FAIRX maybe 10 years ago, sold maybe 5 years ago. Why? The 'star' manager phenom. Some of those 'kids' are more attuned than others, but none of them have the level of cynicism I do. I like the team managed stuff, thinking that there might be some continuity over the coming years. I use two you mentioned: Primecap and Dodge & Cox. Tweedy Browne Global has been in their ports for years as well, although I think their ER stinks: they don't trade an awful lot and won't buy anywhere they can't drink the water - so whats the deal with 1.40 ER?
    Am taking antacids over Sequoia: thought I had a good one there. We'll see if they can right the ship.
    Matthews MACSX requires monitoring now - I have been neglectful of their management changes. Artisan ARTGX can stay for a while and we'll see. Bridgeway B
    ridgeway is another concern of
  • FAIRX ... Keep or Lose It
    It looks like per M* data, procrastination is hurting you. FAIRX is down about -11% for the month (FAAFX slightly worst), compared to the S&P 500 down about -5%.
    In hind sight, it appears that Berkowitz does not fit the definition of a great active manager. Over the last 10 years he has under performed the S&P by almost 3% a year on average. In the last 5 years he has under performed by an astonishing 12% a year.
    So, are the chances Berkowitz some how turns things around better than switching to an index or a more stable manager?
  • FAIRX ... Keep or Lose It
    FWIW, I sold FAIRX last year before the big cap gains distribution, but added to FAAFX. But I guess that doesn't answer the general question of whether or not to stay with BB. I'm giving him a couple more years, mostly because I think the bull market has a few more years to run, then if FAAFX hasn't knocked it out of the park to make up for its years of underperformance, I"m moving the money to an index fund or a low-priced diversified ETF like VIG or SCHD.
    Because if Berkowitz can't outperform, with so much going for him, then I will no longer believe in my ability to choose great active managers.
    A possible exception would be low-cost team-managed funds like Primecap or D&C.
  • FAIRX ... Keep or Lose It
    If you were lucky enough to invest with BB since FAIRX inception, congratulations ... you've received 10.1% per year for the past 16 years! (Through December 2015 anyway.) But the past 5 years, at least, must be testing everyone's patience. FAIRX is now a Three Alarm fund (among lowest absolute return in category the past 1, 3, and 5 year periods) and a below average fund based on Martin across the most recent full cycle (beginning in November 2007). The fund seems to struggle the most during up markets. Anyway, how long do you wait for value? Is it a marathon?
    image
    image
  • Anecdotal Observation
    No opinion. But I'd try to find additional data beyond anecdotal observation before doing anything.
    I interpreted Price's closing of PRHYX about five years ago as a warning sign and sold. Big mistake, as it continued to do well for 2-3 more years. That one is still closed.
    I suspect another T. Rowe fund PRWCX will never reopen. The fund is huge and immensely successful. Maybe a clone some day? Right now I'm down to a foot-in-the-door holding with that one.
  • Consolidating M/C funds-Help

    I am looking to consolidate my M/C funds; i'm leaning towards "blend" but would consider "value". It will be in a taxable account; currently the funds I own are NOT tax efficient at all, so that is an important factor at this point. I also have a long-term time horizon of 10+ years.
    I'm not looking for a world beater, just something with good metrics and solid returns. My research has identifed several candidates, three of which i would like your opinion, thoughts and suggestions on.
    GVMCX (Government Street Mid-Cap)
    BALIX (Barrow Value Opportunity)
    PARMX (Parnassus Mid Cap)
    They have good metrics, are fairly tax efficient and have category beating long and short-term returns. It also appears they have the ability to scour the market spectrum for investments.
    Any and all thoughts, opinions, suggestions on these or other funds is greatly appreciated!!
    Thanks,
    Matt
  • Should You Even Bother To Rebalance Your Portfolio?
    I just do not put much stock in a massively long time frame like that. At least 90% of that time was prior to computerized trading and 24-hour negative news. And the last 30 years were a bull market for bonds. I would like to see the same thing done over the last 10 years. We are rebalancing accounts, with a few adjustments: replacing a handful of funds, increasing international allocation a bit, pulling some fixed-income dollars to market neutral, and emphasizing dividends more than the last few years.
  • Announcing Morningstar’s 2015 Fund Managers Of The Year
    mrc70, you make a point, but if M* insists on including global funds in their international category for these meaningless awards, they should identify the award as such. All they would have to do is call the category Global/International, and that would at least make it honest. As for asset bloat, many of the funds are already huge in size, and some are already closed when they receive the award. Perhaps it was a bigger deal years ago, but it can sometimes be the kiss of death. Anyone remember Julis Baer International? Their asset base grew so big, the fund essentially imploded. My observation, once again, is that these "awards" have much less impact than they used to, especially since the market-share gain of index funds and ETFs. But we know the fund companies will market them as long as they can.