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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Is there a backdoor entry to T Rowe Price Capital Appreciation - PRWCX - as it is closed ?
    thanks for info...I already own PRWCX...was just trying to help learningcurve.
    Little5bee: Happy to help. Just happen to have held PRWCX & a number of their funds-of-funds for many years. PRWCX dates back almost to inception.
    Yours is an interesting question/suggestion - as a purely academic pursuit (the spirit in which I responded). As a practical matter, however, it's unlikely one would purchase 10 shares of a fund they don't need to secure an interest in one share of PRWCX. And it's uncommon (but not unheard of) for their fund-of-funds to hold much over 10-15% of any one fund.
    Regards
  • GMO 7-Year Asset Class Real Return Forecast
    re "timber"- an excerpt from a current article in the WSJ:
    U.S. Home-Builder Confidence Hits Highest Level in Nearly a Decade

    "WASHINGTON—A gauge of home-builder sentiment hit its highest level since November 2005, reflecting confidence in a steadily improving U.S. housing market.
    An index of builder confidence in the market for new single-family homes stood at a seasonally adjusted level of 60 in July, the National Association of Home Builders said Thursday. A reading over 50 means most builders generally see conditions as positive.
    June’s reading was revised up one point to 60, marking two straight months that the index has been at its highest point in more than nine years. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expected a reading of 59 in July. "

  • my HSA
    @msf,
    If I understand insurance plans deductibles correctly they reset each year. This also seem like something that needs to be managed over the course of a single health event. When does the deductible coverage begin? When does it end?
    If a patient is being treated for a single condition that bridges multiple years, which I'm sure many do, keeping track of these recurring deductibles seems like the kinda math you might be able to handle :), but maybe not the average sick guy :(.
    I wonder if doctors are able to offer services that provide a "package of care" that has a cost, but not a time frame thus avoiding having to meet a second deductible for at least that "illness". An illness doesn't know when the year's deductible resets and so long as you remain in contract with the insurance provider (don't change carriers) it seems continuation of care should be covered under the original deductible... not multiple deductibles due to calendar reset.
    In my imperfect world, a deductible for a health event should be treated much like a deductible for a car crash. If it takes the mechanic longer to "fix" my car I'm not required to meet a second deductible. A patient should not be required to meet multiple deductibles over the treating/healing process (maybe multiple years).
    Then again, I don't want my doctor to tell me I just "totaled myself".
    Just some thoughts and thanks for all your information here. Great thread l5b!
  • How traditional retirement formulas fall short
    Staying with the baby boomers group only.........I find that at least 5% of this group could have "investible monies" worth +$1 million. I would lean towards a higher number.
    I can only reference this from the viewpoint of Michigan and the auto industry; as well as all of the ancillary supporting business.
    In particular, from the early 1970's through the mid-90's, the big 3 auto companies had hugh payrolls, as well as the many of the outside vendors supplying product to these companies.
    Many union "blue collar" jobs found high wages, superior benefits and many households had both adults working at auto factories. These folks were making a lot of money on an annual basis for many years for their household. Add the 1,000's of skilled trade jobs that were part of this and at a much higher wage. There were also many small business formations for a variety of tool and die works for all sorts of piece parts.
    Knowing personally that the debt ratio for most of these folks was very poor; as they spent a lot of this money, too; but that a guess of 5% of this overall group was prudent with their spending habits could find "investible" monies to be ready available.
    I recall a WSJ or Baron's article from 1976 ?, from which I pulled data for a report that noted at the time a list of per capita income by states. New York was first, Alaska was second and Michigan was third. There were so many people employed at high wage/low skill jobs to offer this per capita rate of income.
    I am sure similar scenarios of wage happened in other industrial areas of the U.S. during this period.
    IMO, I consider at least 5% of the baby boomer group (non-professional) to have at least $1 million of invested monies. This of course, does not include value of primary homes or similar related areas.
    Too late at night, to search for a document.
    My uneducated, no data observation, just from being there, summary.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • Bond Funds
    Hi @bee
    Don't hold FAGIX right now; but probably should....., but it was traded in for the time being :)
    Although rightfully classified as a high yield bond fund, this fund has always been one of the hybrid funds that doesn't fit into a complete category. The name Capital and Income is likely an appropriate name for this fund.
    The fund mix has always held about 80% true high yield corp. bonds, with the remainder in equity. Some of the HY bonds is/was foreign and some of the equity is generally foreign, too. Current management has been in place for more than 12 years; but the prior team always performed well, too.
    If one has access to this fund through whatever type of account they hold, I would always recommend this fund for a portion of bonds, although being HY with the equity mix causes this fund to be more equity directed for/with market movements.
    Current YTD is about +4.6%.
    We have held this fund at various periods beginning in the early 1980's.
    Fidelity view, composition
    The reason this fund is not in our portfolio at this time is that the monies from the sale were placed into healthcare/bio/pharma holdings for a direct path into equities. This fund is always on our monitored list of funds. For those reading this, don't confuse this fund with Fidelity's HY fund of SPHIX. This fund, as well as other vendor's offerings of high yield bond funds with not likely fit the same mold as FAGIX. I don't consider the E.R. of .72% to be out of line for the performance of this fund relative to others of this category. FAGIX has remained high on the list of HY bond funds.
    As with any market sector, this fund is subject to market conditions and will have its "off" periods.
    @bee, I know you may or have probably already formed some graphs for this fund; sadly I can't offer your well designed graphic layouts you post here.
    Just for the heck of it............... a 5 year combo return for a mostly U.S. centric portfolio of these 3 funds:
    ---VTI, u.s. blend, leaning towards lg. cap.
    ---PONDX / PIMIX , mixed bonds, depending on the markets (excellent management)
    ---FAGIX, as noted above
    5 year average = 12% annual
    Not too bad for such a "Strange Brew" (Bruce,Baker,Clapton)
    Take care and thank for all of your fine offerings here,
    Catch
  • my HSA
    1. Generally, you need to have an eligible HDHP (high deductible health plan) in order to open an HSA. However, if you have an existing HSA, you're allowed to open another one (even without having an eligible HDHP), and transfer/roll over the existing HSA to the new one.
    For example, here's Alliant CU's page:
    To open an Alliant HSA you must be:
    - 18 years of age or older
    - Must be enrolled in a qualified High Deductible Health Plan (HDHP) to make contributions.
    - If not enrolled in a HDHP you are still qualified to roll over or transfer funds from your current HSA
    2. As others have stated, you don't need compensation income in order to contribute to an HSA. AFAIK (this is speculation), you don't need income at all (though you'll waste the deduction that way).
    In order to fund (not open) an HSA, you must have had an eligible HDHP. However, since funding can be retroactive (like an IRA, you can fund it early the next year), you can fund the HSA because you were in an HDHP, even if you aren't currently.
  • CalPERS: Targeted Investment Programs And Manager Restructure Update
    MARKETS
    Calpers Struggles as Its Return Falls Short
    Largest U.S. pension fund earned 2.4% in fiscal 2015, shy of 2.5% goal
    By TIMOTHY W. MARTIN WSJ
    Updated July 13, 2015 6:43 p.m. ET
    The California Public Employees’ Retirement System fell short of its annual return target in fiscal 2015, as public pensions around the U.S. struggle through one of their worst years since the financial crisis.
    The $301 billion pension fund, the largest in the U.S. by assets and known as Calpers, said it earned 2.4% on its investments for the fiscal year ended June 30 because of a slump in the markets and weak private-equity returns. The performance was just shy of its internal goal of 2.5%. It was Calpers’ poorest year since 2012, when it earned 1%, and down from 18.4% in 2014.
    Pension investments have been challenged this year by low interest rates, uneven market performance and the recovery of the U.S. dollar, which has weakened gains in global stocks.
    Calpers played down the importance of its 2015 performance, noting that the pension fund had topped three- and five-year internal targets with returns of 10.9% and 10.7%. Calpers assumes it will produce annual returns over the long run of 7.5%.
    “We try not to get too fixated or excited about any one-year return,” said Calpers Chief Investment Officer Ted Eliopoulos on Monday at a board meeting. “The strength of our long-term numbers gives us confidence that our strategic plan is working,”
    Mr. Eliopoulos, who was named CIO last year, has moved Calpers to simplify its portfolio and dial down the risk. Those moves include halving the number of external money managers it works with by 2020, plus winding down its hedge-fund program. Reducing risk in its portfolio also could have the effect of missing out on outsize returns.
    “It’s a marathon, not a sprint,” he said. “Nobody expects stable 7.5% or 8% returns year in, year out.”
    http://www.wsj.com/articles/calpers-return-falls-short-of-annual-target-1436802617
    Tough Times For Broadly Diversified Portfolios
    How’s your globally diversified strategy faring these days? Having a tough time? You’re not alone–the headwinds are fierce. For the first time in recent memory, the overwhelming majority of the major asset classes are in the red on a trailing one-year basis. As a result, broadly defined asset allocation strategies are suffering, at least relative to the stellar numbers in recent years.
    Using a set of ETF proxies for the trailing 250-day (1 year) total return, only US stocks, US REITs (real estate investment trusts), and US bonds (broadly defined) are posting gains among the major asset classes. By contrast, the other 11 asset classes are in varying states of loss over that period.... The lesson, of course, is that mean reversion is alive and well when it comes to market (and portfolio strategy) returns.
    With Charts
    image
    http://www.capitalspectator.com/tough-times-for-broadly-diversified-portfolios/
  • my HSA
    Bee, I did not know about the roll over from IRA to HSA. Thank you for that great information. Unless I'm mistaken, this is nothing like a shell game. Money into an IRA is taxed when you take it out, but in an HSA, there is no tax in and no tax out. What could be better then that?
    I have been maxing out my HSA contributions for the last few years and not using the money. I pay for medical expenses with taxed money. But, I have been very lucky that I have had good health, limited expenses. I plan to use the accumulating money in the HSA account as a bridge to pay health insurance when I retire - until medicare kicks in.
    Thanks again. You are a gem to this discussion board.
  • my HSA
    Hi, msf....I am also using my HSA for saving and investing. It's been a few years since I made the switch to Saturna, but I remember that originally I was in one "arm" of the firm, which didn't have a large list of funds, so I switched my HSA to the brokerage "arm". They still do not have the selection of funds that Schwab or TD have, but they offer TRP funds NTF, so that's what I focused on. Again, there are positives and negatives with them, just like with any brokerage. When I start withdrawing cash....who knows...I may decide to switch again.
  • my HSA
    Regarding complexities - each HSA administrator handles things differently - checks, debit cards, ACH transfers. Some will do the medical expense bookkeeping for you. (Similar to mutual fund companies keeping track of cost basis for you - pre-2012 - as a service, but not reporting it to the IRS.)
    Whatever works best for you. Since I view HSAs as savings vehicles, I don't care about the withdrawal mechanism. I just keep track of all my eligible expenses since I opened the account. At some time in the future I'll withdraw a lump sum. I'll be able to justify the withdrawal with those medical expenses, so long as I keep good records.
    Fidelity does offer an HSA account, but only to employer-sponsored plans. I've spoken with them for years about this. They tell me that they've gotten lots of requests, and they keep looking into it. My guess is that these are not especially profitable accounts, so they're not too interested.
    - Accounts tend not to be large (limited contributions, people take withdrawals for expenses)
    - Servicing costs are high (lots of small withdrawals)
    - Regulatory costs are high
    Question about Saturna - they mention Archipelago, but don't provide detail. Last time I checked (a couple of years ago?), this was a smaller list of funds (but more "interesting" as I recall), and required a $10K min. Did Archipelago vanish from Saturna?
  • my HSA
    As an additional funding source have you considered a rollover into your hsa?
    If you haven't already done so and have a tax deferred IRA you can make a one time rollover from your IRA to you hsa. The amount cannot exceed your maximum allowable hsa contribution. For an individual that would be $4350 for 2015 and a but more if you have a family hsa plan.
    Its a nice way to move what would be taxable IRA dollars into tax free hsa. This is not a distribution...its a one time rollover.
    Generally, I don't see this as an advantage, assuming you have outside money with which to fund your HSA. It's basically a shell game. You're taking money out of an IRA and thus losing the deduction you could have had by making a regular HSA contribution. So effectively, you are paying taxes on that IRA rollover.
    If I'm going to pay taxes when I move money from a traditional IRA to another tax-advantaged account, I'd rather pay the taxes (directly) and move it to a Roth, rather than pay the taxes indirectly (by losing a deduction) and move it to an HSA.
    With the Roth, after five years, I can take the money out tax free, no questions asked. With the HSA, questions are asked - what were the medical expenses that this withdrawal is covering?
    On the other hand, with the rollover to the HSA, there's no five year waiting period.
    If you need to pull money out of a traditional IRA and you're under 59.5, then "laundering" it through the HSA gives you a way to do that (if you've got matching medical expenses). That's the only reason I can see for doing a rollover to an HSA.
  • How traditional retirement formulas fall short
    Hi Dex,
    Often the retirement decision is a high anxiety event because of portfolio performance uncertainty. If the retirement depends on a portfolio drawdown, a few bad years can do lasting damage.
    There are plenty of millionaires in the USA. In very rough numbers (it changes so precision gives a false signal), the Millionaires Club is about 5% of US households. Since there are about 123 million households in the US, there are about 6.2 millionaire households. These households are not evenly distributed across the Country. Here is a recent estimate map published in the WSJ:
    http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/01/16/where-are-the-u-s-s-millionaires/
    I couldn't tell from the WSJ info if that is net worth (including non investment income e.g. house) or invested assets. Can you?
    Thanks
  • How traditional retirement formulas fall short
    Hi Dex,
    Often the retirement decision is a high anxiety event because of portfolio performance uncertainty. If the retirement depends on a portfolio drawdown, a few bad years can do lasting damage.
    There are plenty of millionaires in the USA. In very rough numbers (it changes so precision gives a false signal), the Millionaires Club is about 5% of US households. Since there are about 123 million households in the US, there are about 6.2 millionaire households. These households are not evenly distributed across the Country. Here is a recent estimate map published in the WSJ:
    http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/01/16/where-are-the-u-s-s-millionaires/
    The Southern states are at the bottom of the heap. The likelihood of a millionaires household increases with age, with education, with being married, and with multiple wage earners in a household. No great surprises. About one-third to one-half of millionaires are in households below typical retirement ages. Here is a Link that makes that claim (see chart 4):
    http://taxfoundation.org/article/who-are-americas-millionaires
    However, when retiring, sometimes “A Million is Not Enough”. That’s the title of a book by financial advisor Michael K. Farr. But the real answer depends upon many individual factors that can not be adequately addressed in any book.
    Many of these individual factors can be nicely addressed by exercising retirement planning tools that are accessible on the Internet. I have referenced these resources frequently on MFO, and am not reluctant to do so again. I am a fan of these tools since they help to reduce retirement planning anxiety, especially when Monte Carlo analyses capabilities are integrated into their toolkits.
    One of my favorites is The Flexible Retirement Planner site. Here is the Link:
    http://www.flexibleretirementplanner.com/wp/
    The workhorse tool on this site is its Monte Carlo simulator. Please give it multiple test runs for your specific circumstances. Exploring “what-if” scenarios will increase a user’s understanding of what is influential, what actions are positive, and what options are harmful.
    A more barebones Monte Carlo simulator, with many fewer options, is available on the MoneyChimp website. Here is the Link to it:
    http://www.moneychimp.com/articles/volatility/montecarlo.htm
    The MoneyChimp code inputs can’t be made more simple. You get to choose your own tool. I might test both resources because both are efficient time-wise.
    The bottom-line output from either simulator is the probability of success (avoiding portfolio bankruptcy). There are many actionable options to move the likelihood into an acceptable green-coded probability zone. This is a terrific planning tool, and should make a final decision just a little more comfortable and definitely more reliable.
    Knowing how to become a millionaire is not a mystery; the discipline to achieve that goal is yet another matter. The ball is in your court. I wish you good planning, a good decision, and good luck.
    Best Regards.
  • my HSA
    I just wanted to thank the MFO community....I reached a big milestone in my HSA, thanks to all of you and the T Rowe Price funds you have recommended over the years. It is greatly appreciated!
    Hi l5b,
    What's the milestone? Hopefully the Health Savings Account finds you healthy, wealthy and wise. Were you able to set an hsa with TRP funds at TRP or through an intermediary?
  • my HSA
    I just wanted to thank the MFO community....I reached a big milestone in my HSA, thanks to all of you and the T Rowe Price funds you have recommended over the years. It is greatly appreciated!
  • Bond Funds
    Many of the bank loan funds are having decent years over 3% YTD ala LSFYX and DBFRX. Same with many of the junk funds ala JAHYX.
    A year ago I bailed from Price's floating rate (bank loan) fund, PRFRX, after enduring about 3 years of very poor performance. Guess what? It's up around 3.5% YTD. Meanwhile, RPSIX, where I put the $$, is flat YTD. Another case of being "a day late and a dollar short."
    Buying and selling rarely pays. Maybe a lesson in there for others.
  • The Definitive Smart Beta ETF Guide
    FYI: Smart beta has emerged as one of the most exciting and hotly debated investment trends of the past 10 years.
    Going by many different names—strategic beta, Fundamental Indexing, factor investing and others—smart beta is a
    catchall term for rules-based, quantitative strategies that aim to deliver better risk-adjusted returns than traditional
    market indexes.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.etf.com/sites/default/files/smart-beta-guide-043015.pdf
  • When Will Value Funds Revive?
    FYI: Value mutual funds did well in the first two of the past 10 years but have lagged their growth and core counterparts since then, leaving the style trailing for the whole period.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://license.icopyright.net/user/viewFreeUse.act?fuid=MTk5MzkzOTE=
    Enlarged Graphic:
    http://news.investors.com/photopopup.aspx?path=071515webLV.jpg&docId=761703&xmpSource=&width=986&height=1135&caption=&id=761693
  • Bond Funds
    Many of the bank loan funds are having decent years over 3% YTD ala LSFYX and DBFRX. Same with many of the junk funds ala JAHYX.
    I've noticed the same with my bond funds - the junkier stuff is doing better than the higher quality holdings.
  • Bond Funds
    Many of the bank loan funds are having decent years over 3% YTD ala LSFYX and DBFRX. Same with many of the junk funds ala JAHYX.