Hi Old Skeet,
Congratulations to both you and your Engineer friend. You have each chosen separate investment pathways, but your common decisions to save and invest early in your earning lifecycle is yielding a huge payoff today. That’s no great surprise.
Every single financial advisor who has developed a set of financial rules recommends consistent savings and accepting the risks of investing. In his Zurich Axiom book, Max Gunther’s first axiom is to accept the risk challenge. He said: “Worry is not a sickness, but a sign of health. If you are not worried, you are not risking enough.”
It is amazing how many folks are not up to that challenge. I too have experienced the reluctance of smart and successful folks to engage in the investment world. They don’t consider it investing, but identify it as speculation or gambling. Among these folks, the deep recession of the 1930s has a long arm.
A long time ago, I gave lectures to senior citizens and High School age kids to encourage both savings and prudent investing. My single most effective graph when making the presentations was the comparative Stocks, Bonds, and Inflation historical chart. I know you are familiar with it, but here is a convenient Link:
http://www.morningstar.com/products/institutional/SBBI.pdfThis Ibbotson chart was a terrific deal closer. I was always surprised by how conservative folks were, and how uninformed they were with respect to inflation’s erosive impact.
The goal was to get these folks into the ballgame. What game they played and/or what position they took was far less important. “There is no one right portfolio, but there is one right for you.”
That saying comes from Larry Swedroe’s “14 Simple Truths”. It is Number 14 on his list.
I currently own a mixed portfolio of both actively and passively managed mutual funds and ETFs. I am moving in the direction of more passively focused funds, so I am now more inclined towards your engineer buddy’s program than yours. Some of the logic in doing so is captured succinctly by Swedroe’s Truths Numbers 2 and 3.
Truth 2 is that “The past performance of an actively managed fund is a very poor predictor of its future performance.”
Truth 3 is that “If skilled professionals don’t succeed, it is unlikely that individual investors will.”
I believe these are statistically correct with plenty of experimental data to corroborate them. Over my investing career, I have experienced both sides of those arguments. It is indeed a challenge to overcome the professionals’ advantages. As the professionals have become more knowledgeable, and compete more against each other, Alpha is a disappearing quantity.
I especially congratulate you on winning at this most difficult challenge with such a demanding, complex portfolio construction. Just the numerical size of your portfolio would overwhelm me. If fact, the primary reason I defected from a portfolio of individual stock ownership a number of
years ago was that I just couldn’t stay current on 50 stock holdings. I wish you continued good luck and much success.
You might consider working on your hesitant cash holder friends to change their losing ways. You would be doing them an invaluable service. You might want to show them the referenced chart. I've now closed the circle of my post.
Best Wishes.