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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • No Fed Rate Hike Needed Until Second Half Of 2016
    Hi @Ted
    I don't recall that bet; but I would not bet against you regarding a rate hike anytime soon. But, if I did; I would want to choose a restaurant on Milwaukee Ave.
    Hey, speaking of Chicago and food. Back in the late 70's through the early 80's I had the good fortune of being in the Chicago area numerous times related to week long business trips. A fellow company aquaintance I had known for several years had an apartment on N. Milwaukee Ave., which lead to the "food feast" for me. Having traveled a good deal in my younger years, including internationally, and wonderful home cooking as a child; my food palate was very diverse. I recall the wonderful discovery of the many restaurants along Milwaukee Ave.; a block at a time, being the Greek, Polish, Italian, middle eastern, etc. During my stays I would always venture around the entire area (except S. Chicago) to get to know the community in and around greater Chicago.
    Milwaukee Ave. always brought me into "food heaven".
    Do you know whether this area of restuarants still exists, as such?
    I found this listing, but I don't know if these are still some of the long standing, old restaurants; or new versions.
    https://www.google.com/?gws_rd=ssl#q=milwaukee+avenue+chicago+restaurants&rflfq=1&tbm=lcl
    Thanks, Ted.
    Catch
  • Investors, Get 7.4% From a Fund of Funds
    Hmmm ... it delivers a 7.4% yield with a 6.45% total return, annualized over five years. Negative alpha and high beta against its "best fit" index over the past three years; Morningstar doesn't provide the five-year best fit data.
    In a move that only Morningstar could love, they rate it as "high risk" within its category; then note that the category holds a total of four funds.
    David
  • K1 from Oaktree capital group
    I filed my tax using TT in the past few years without any problems with K1, the major issue i have this year is that my accountant don't feel comfortable to file the return with estimated K1 from Oaktree and want me to file the disclosure form.
  • Chuck Jaffe: Which Investments Would You Buy If You Had To Do It All Over Again?
    FYI: In a few weeks, two mutual funds that I have owned for at least 20 years will no longer be part of my portfolio.
    That’s by circumstance, not by choice, but it leaves me with questions to answer and decisions to make. Moreover, even if you never face the same challenges, the exercise I must now go through will help you update, refresh and refocus your portfolio.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/which-investments-would-you-buy-if-you-had-to-do-it-all-over-again-2015-04-06/print
  • Mark Hulbert: Investing Guru Predicts 12% Rise In Stocks Over Six months
    "Price" and Dividends are the Game.....Market increases and Decreases mean What?
    I predict the Market will go up and Down and I (we) will Make money in the future...
    See....Predictions are easy....and I'm correct....Eisenstedt is (probably) wrong after 63 years of Research......
  • K1 from Oaktree capital group
    @ Catch & John - I found the list of Googled articles to have some fairly misleading titles. However, once one starts reading the articles the truth starts to surface. The only tax issue to holding an MLP in an IRA account has to do with UBTI or UBIT (unrelated business tax income) in excess of $1000/year. If your MLP reports UBTI greater than this your IRA, not you, will have to declare and pay the required tax. Your brokerage firm completes the required forms and may charge you for this service.
    Having owned multiple MLP's in my retirement IRA's for over 10 years now I have never seen a positive UBTI much less one over $1000. In fact, as one article mentioned, TurboTax actually kicks the K-1 out of tax reporting if you state that the MLP is held in a retirement account. Do consult with your accountant or tax preparer and you should find that there are no issues.
  • Time to Bail out of Perkins Midcap Value (JMCVX)
    JMCVX is a conservative (M* rates it low risk), broadly diversified (almost 100 securities) fund that sits on the value/blend border (oscillating from year to year), tending toward large cap. It is not focused on midcap value, it just averages out that way.
    How much of this is important to you in seeking a replacement? FSMVX matches most attributes - its portfolio leans a bit more toward large cap, and a bit more toward value, but both in minor ways. More significant is that its risk is rated average - still not a very risky fund.
    VASVX is also slightly more value oriented, though with an average market cap matching JMCVX. M* rates its risk as below average - not quite as low as JMCVX, but in the "next" ballpark. Mona is correct that Vanguard recently added Penza Investment Management recently, but Donald G. Smith and Richard L Greenberg (of Donald Smith & Co.) came on board a decade ago, just three years after Mark Giambrone.
    If you want to get a sense of how Barrow/Giambrone work with Penza and his team, you might look at American Beacon Mid Cap Value (AMPAX). From the fund inception until 2014, these two teams were responsible for the day-to-day management of that fund. ISTM that this is a respectable, though not awe inspiring fund - good risk/return, similar attributes to JMCVX, average risk and a bit pricy (compared with the other funds mentioned). Not a fund I'd look at to purchase, but one to see how these teams work together in a co-managed fund.
    HIMVX isn't as close a match as the other funds. Its risk is higher (above average per M*) which IMHO goes along with a deep value leaning (vs. sitting on the value/blend line as do the other funds). On the other hand, it has somewhat more securities in its portfolio (about 175). Overall, it gives a bit greater variety in company cap sizes, and a bit less along the value/growth axis. While it has done well in the past few years (with markets soaring), its ten year record is almost identical to AMPAX - and management has been pretty stable for both funds over that period of time (making the comparison valid). Another indicator that the fund is more risky/volatile than the others - better in good times, worse in bad ones.
    All of this gets me back to the question - what are you looking for in a replacement? If you're looking for a fund that spans a broad swath of companies, then a fund narrowly focused on mid cap value, whether active or index like VOE/VMVAX isn't going to do it.
    Are you willing to look outside of Fidelity, or are you at least open to the idea of doing a move all at once (to facilitate purchasing TF funds at Fidelity)? In that case, you might also consider DHMIX (TF at Fidelity, more compact portfolio, leaning more toward small cap), or VETAX (NTF at Schwab, and a somewhat more focused market cap range, though not nearly as narrow as VOE/VMVAX).
    Or if all you're looking for is a better fund, nominally labeled MCV, you might even look at FLPSX. A bit of a contrarian play in the sense that the fund is nearly a world fund, and the US market has been doing much better over the past few years.
  • Mark Hulbert: Investing Guru Predicts 12% Rise In Stocks Over Six months
    Someone is going to have to do more than "Research Work" for 63 years to claim Guru Status with me, But everyone has the privilege to pick their "Gurus":
    His previous six-month forecast, for example, was that the S&P 500 by the end of March (this past Tuesday) would be between 2,160 and 2,200 — representing an increase of at least 9.5% over where it stood at the end of last year’s third quarter. As fate would have it, the S&P 500 rose “only” 4.8% over that six-month period.
    not my kinda of Guru....tb
  • Mark Hulbert: Investing Guru Predicts 12% Rise In Stocks Over Six months
    Indeed, guru designation is often placed upon those who just happen to get it right more often than wrong. Guru's come and guru's go.
    However if you had bothered to read the article you would have learned that Mr. Eisenstadt is the former research director at Value Line Inc. with 63 years at that firm. I'd say that he might have earned the street credit's to be listened to over Timmy boy who offers nothing other than he's a blog writer with no credentials he cares to mention.
  • Mark Hulbert: Investing Guru Predicts 12% Rise In Stocks Over Six months
    FYI: This aging bull market should be given the benefit of the doubt for at least another several months.
    That cheery forecast comes from Sam Eisenstadt, who has more successfully called stocks’ direction in recent years than anyone I can think of. His latest forecast is that the S&P 500 SPX, +0.35% will rise to 2,310 over the next six months. If so, the market at the end of September will be 11.8% higher than where it stands today.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/enjoy-the-party-while-it-lasts-2015-04-03/print
    Music To My Ears: Play It Again Sam;
  • Interesting movement on ACDJX.
    @BenWP, Thanks for that tip. That is a interesting ETF and a new one at that. Can I imagine I am 25 years old again and buy that for the long haul?
    @Junkster, Comparative pricing has been a thorn in patients sides. Selling a medication that costs relatively little to make at a high profit because it can save you the costs of surgery is kinda in the trickery dept. I do not bemoan the profits of any company but sometimes the reasons for the high prices are head scratching.
  • All Hail Jeffrey Gundlach, The New Bond King
    Thanks for the information. He clearly struck-out on THAT score. I'll stick with him, though. DLFNX is a small position. Today, I just added a tiny bit to it, too.
    His funds have done well. Better than his predictions. Then again these markets of recent years have tripped up many experts. I hold DLFNX as well.
    I'm also looking at DLFNX, as well as DoubleLine Total Return.
    FWIW, you can get into the institutional share classes in an IRA at asset levels FAR below that required in a taxable account. IIRC, something like $5k, versus 100k......don't quote me on that
  • All Hail Jeffrey Gundlach, The New Bond King
    His funds have done well. Better than his predictions. Then again these markets of recent years have tripped up many experts. I hold DLFNX as well.
  • All Hail Jeffrey Gundlach, The New Bond King
    From the 2011 article:
    By Jonathan R. Laing
    Updated Feb. 21, 2011
    Gundlach made a couple of very significant predictions in 2011:
    http://online.barrons.com/articles/SB50001424052970204442204576144662301971254?tesla=y
    Celebrated bond-fund manager Jeffrey Gundlach has a healthy -- some might say overdeveloped -- ego.
    "Look, I have a gift, or some would say a curse, of being able to have stunning insight into the reality of markets and the economy," Gundlach says.........But whether it's bond selection or asset allocation, we can do it better than just about anybody around."
    "Though I rarely go public with specifics on stocks, I think the Standard & Poor's 500, which is now over 1300, will hit 500 in the next couple of years," he says.

    "He foresees a major collapse in the municipal-bond market, beyond the declines to date, given the parlous condition of both state and local government finances. He is preparing, he says, by having established a joint venture with the Chicago financial firm RiverNorth. Among other things, it expects to scoop up closed-end municipal-bond funds in the next year or so when the predicted apocalypse arrives, driving fund prices down, he says, to as little as 40% of net asset value. "
  • The new look
    Thank you all for the replies. No, it does NOT just happen at the MFO site. It happens at Facebook, typing an email message, too. The wireless router is upstairs. I'm downstairs, but almost right underneath the thing. It's a small home! I've tried to note whether it might be a time-of-day problem, too. But it apparently is NOT. Early or late doesn't matter. My mouse is a wired one. So there's no battery inside to wear out and die, like a wireless mouse... "Has this problem existed before?" (As per Catch22.) YES, in fact, it's been happening over months and years. At first, I just thought I was hitting the wrong key, or my fat fingers were getting in their own way. But it's been happening only at THIS address, connected to scummy, spooge-y COMCAST as our ISP. We bought this computer in western Pennsylvania. I never noticed the problem there. We took it to Jamaica. The problem did not happen THERE. I could try the other USB port. But it seems clear to me now: the faulty, worthless, disgusting ISP is to blame. Another reason to add to the list, for wanting to get out of New England. If you don't get internet from the phone company here, and particularly if you want to "bundle" phone and tv and internet, the greasy company known as Comcast is the only option in my city. We are captives. Have I mentioned that Comcast licks germs off dead rats in the street?
  • Commodity Funds Continue To Struggle
    @Ted, You missed my tongue in cheek comment.
    He wants to renegotiate the lease terms ,Ted !!
    More Ag/Farm
    Jf Drought worsens in West..farmers may face restrictions
    California governor orders mandatory water restrictions
    BY FENIT NIRAPPIL ASSOCIATED PRESS
    04/01/2015 5:32 PM 04/01/2015 5:32 PM
    Wednesday's order has fewer provisions addressing the state's biggest user of water: agriculture.
    There is no water reduction target for farmers, who have let thousands of acres go fallow as the state and federal government slashed water deliveries from reservoirs. Instead, the order requires many agricultural water suppliers to submit detailed drought management plans that include how much water they have and what they're doing to scale back.
    After the previous drought, state officials acknowledge that some suppliers did not submit similar required plans in 2009. Mark Cowin, director of the Department of Water Resources, said the state will provide money to make sure the plans are written and may penalize those who do not comply.
    The state is not aiming to go after water-guzzling crops such as almonds and rice the same way Brown has condemned lawns.
    "We're not at the point yet where we are going to declare the irrigation of any particular crop 'waste and unreasonable use,'" Cowin said.
    Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/article17079074.html#storylink=cpy
    Warning: This is a Seeking Alpha Article
    Don't Waste Water, But Rather Invest In It
    by David Krejca, AlphaReturns.IO Mar. 30, 2015
    "On the occasion of the World Water Day, the United Nations released its annual World Water Development Report. This year titled "Water for a Sustainable World," the report suggests that the world water supply will fall short by at least 40 percent within the next 15 years if world leaders do not rethink their water policies..Unlike oil, natural gas, or any other commodity, investors can't use futures contracts to directly bet on water prices. However, there are two alternatives for how to capitalize on the increasing scarcity of fresh and potable water. The first is to invest in utilities or companies that desalinate, recycle, conserve, purify and distribute clean water, as well as those that make equipment and deliver new technologies to the water industry. The second is to purchase securities of some mutual fund or one of the four water E T Fs
    All the E T Fs are closely correlated to each other and are slightly behind the S&P 500 index. Nevertheless, several differences can be found. The Guggenheim S&P Global Water Index E T F (CGW) and the PowerShares Global Water Portfolio E T F (PIO) are internationally diversified, while the First Trust ISE Water Index E T F (FIW) and the PowerShares Water Resources Portfolio E T F (PHO) are solely focused on the U.S. market. The following table provides a good summary of the essential differences among them..
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/3038716-dont-waste-water-but-rather-invest-in-it
    Or AWTAX
    CFWAX
  • Commodity Funds Continue To Struggle
    @ Ted said September 2014 in Fund Discussions FYI: I own a 1,200 acre farm west of Dubuque, Ia. It has been in my family for close to a hundreds years on my father's side. The report I'm getting from the tenant who farm it for me is about 188 bushels of corn per acre. Years ago, in a good year, I'd yield roughly 80-100 bushels of corn per acre. Better seed chemicals, and machinery have made the difference.
    He wants to renegotiate the lease terms ,Ted !!
    http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/46722/#Comment_46722
  • Elizabeth Bramwell, Ex-Gabelli Growth Fund Manager, Dies At 74
    Remember her well. All the more reasons why some of us old timers need to start spending and enjoying what we have accumulated over the years. Life is short!
  • Commodity Funds Continue To Struggle
    FYI: The price of a bushel of corn for May delivery tumbled during the last day of the quarter by almost 5 percent to $3.756. The move was caused by the corn supply in the Unites States coming in much higher than expected, even after the government pegged its inventory in June at its highest level in 28 years.
    The 7.75 billion bushels' stockpile, as of March 1, is 11 percent higher than a year ago, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The reading outpaced economists' estimates of an 8.6 percent increase and is the highest on record at this date since 1987.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/commodity-funds-continue-to-struggle-2015-04-01-12463348/print
  • Time to Bail out of Perkins Midcap Value (JMCVX)
    Hi Mulder, if I had to choose from the three funds you mentioned, I'd probably choose VASVX for the lower risk and only slightly lower returns than Fidelity. In the last 13 full years, Fidelity beat Vanguard 7 times and Vanguard won the other 6, so both are doing well. I'd have to do more research about what seem to be frequent subadvisor changes at the Vanguard fund and that might push me in the direction of Fidelity. Vanguard's expense ratio is clearly better, which means the Fidelity fund is actually performing that much better before expenses.
    David's done a nice write-up of SCMFX, which falls more in the mid blend box but the returns have been good compared to the above with the exception of 2013 when they trailed badly.