Woe Betide the (So-Called) Value Investor An alternate possibility: investors won't tolerate real value investing. There are probably two hallmarks of the deep value investor; that is, of the investor who's after the "value premium" found in the academic research. First, they're willing to buy shares of firms that are either disasters or disastrously misunderstood, and then hold them for the 3-5 years that it might take for the corporation to correct its path or for other investors to realize that they'd been misjudging it. Second, they're willing to buy nothing when there's nothing to buy.
Jeremy Grantham calls it "career risk." Value investors tend to get fired before deep value investments play out, so they don't make those investments.
As a result, most value investors are "relative value" guys: fulled invested, often buyers of "the best of a bad lot." Here's a quick test of my guess: I used Morningstar's fund screener to identify all US stock funds in the "value" equity box then looked at (1) where their portfolio centroid - on Morningstar's stylebox grid, it's the black dot representing the placement of the heart of the portfolio from micro to mega and deep value to rocket growth - was and (2) how much cash they had.
574 value funds. I picked the first fund listed on each of the first 15 pages of results. Here they are:
AAM/Bahl & Gaynor Income Growth: value/blend border, 6% cash
American Beacon The London Co Inc Eq: value/blend border, 6% cash
Artisan Small Cap Value: value/blend border, 7% cash
Boston Partners All Cap Value: value/blend border, 0% cash
Columbia Dividend Income: value/blend border, 3% cash
Delaware Mid Cap Value: value/blend border, 0% cash
Dunham Alternative Income: value/blend border, 3% cash
Fidelity Advisor® Value: value/blend border, 5% cash
Franklin Balance Sheet Investment: value/deep value border, 10% cash
Great-West Putnam Equity Income: value/blend border, 2% cash
Hennessy Large Value: middle of the value box, 0% cash
Invesco Exchange: value/blend border, 1% cash
JPMorgan Value Advantage: value/blend border, 8% cash
Manning & Napier Equity Income: middle of the value box, 2% cash
Nationwide US Small Cap Value: value/blend border, 0% cash.
Of a sample of 15 value funds, just one is positioned to invest in the sorts of deep value stocks that most of the research isolates.
There are just two self-proclaimed "deep value" equity options: Towle Deep Value TDVFX (value/deep value border, 2% cash) and Deep Value E T F DVP (solidly deep value, 0% cash). Of the funds we've covered, only Pinnacle Value PVFIX (deep value, 43% cash) strikes me as seriously pursuing the value premium: Mr. Deysher buys only when a stock is at historic lows but the business seems sound, which leaves him with investors' disdain and the best risk ratios (Sortino, Martin and so on) around.
For what thought fodder that offers,
David
Municipal Bond Fund Returns Will Be Muted This Year After Banner 2014
The One Best Mutual Fund To Hold Forever At my age, the odds are good that "forever" may present itself sometime within the next 30
years. So, I'll divide "forever" into 3 equal time frames:
Looking 10
years forward from today -- after thinking about it for a while -- I decided I would probably take a chance on active management outside the Vanguard shop. From a short list including WHGIX, BERIX, GLRBX, and FPACX, I went with FPACX despite its large asset size. (I was pleased to learn from
@Tampabay that I won't be alone on that tropical island!)
Looking forward for both 20 and 30
years, I will stick with index funds and VIMSX...I buy in to the mid-cap "sweet spot" argument and figure that the short term noise will get cancelled out over 20
years or more. If not, I will have bigger things to worry about than the size of my portfolio!
The One Best Mutual Fund To Hold Forever @Junkster - If you were to put a gun to my head and force me to own only one fund for 30
years or longer, I guess it would be PRPFX (assuming continuation of management and fee structure, which is unlikely). I know we disagree on that and your comment was intended tongue-in-cheek.
Yes, many other investments, including junk bonds and the S&P, will outperform that fund over time. No argument there. But, assuming the economy goes through 4, 5 or more different cycles over that 30+ year period (inflationary, deflationary, stagnation, rising rates, falling rates, etc.) I like the fund as one that will not scare the hell out of a conservative investor during those cycles and will at least keep pace with inflation.
The original concept behind PRPFX (which I believe is still valid) was that it is designed to preserve purchasing power over a variety of market cycles and economic conditions (not to make you filthy rich). The fact it has gone nowhere for several
years now does not concern me. We could argue about the current inflation rate - but officially, anyway, it's below the Fed's 2% target range. The fund represents about 8% of my investments. We presently take annual IRA distributions - but never from PRPFX. As a percentage of investments, therefore, it is expected to grow over time.
Regards
The One Best Mutual Fund To Hold Forever @MFO Members: VWELX for 86
years @8.33% !
Regards,
ted
The One Best Mutual Fund To Hold Forever @Junkster - re: PRPFX
I've never owned that fund. I've looked at it once or twice but never got it, 'it' being why I would own this. However, if the markets were to experience another 2008-like dumping it might be the one everyone wished they had chosen. Different times, different market cycles, different goals all go into the thought process.
I'd like to think that I would own any of the six funds I currently do for the next 10
years but if I had to choose just one it would be POAGX. Ask me again in a few weeks or even next week.
The One Best Mutual Fund To Hold Forever Not Knowing what the U.S. stock market will do FOREVER, think I would mix in bonds (debt) and use VWIAX, take my *8% year, double every 9 years and have plenty of money for bananas and a couple of native girls....thinking Bud and golf would not be possible
The One Best Mutual Fund To Hold Forever @junkster, several
years of lagging performance has soured the sentiment on this board.
The One Best Mutual Fund To Hold Forever A few years ago when this question was posed the overwhelming consensus was PRPFX.
The One Best Mutual Fund To Hold Forever @Hank,
Agree with what you said. Vanguard, however, is not a public trade company and is owned by the shareholders like you and I. so there is less concern on conflict of interest.
Over the
years our family's approach have evolved and index funds constituted over 70% of our portfolios. In certain asset classes or sectors, however, active management has provided (at least in our case) some alpha over their respective benchmarks. Ones I am referring to are T. Rowe Price Health Care and Vanguard Health Care, two stellar funds we held in IRAs.
A Three-Question Test Of Financial Literacy
The One Best Mutual Fund To Hold Forever I suspect that "forever" is longer than 10 years. I wouldn't want to leave an actively managed fund on auto pilot for that long. So, I would go with an index fund. Comparing VTSMX, NAESX, VFINX, and VIMSX back to VIMSX's date of birth for both tax free and taxable returns makes me pick VIMSX over NAESX by a hare for a forever fund...though many index fund "experts" would argue it should be a small value fund like VISVX instead.
The One Best Mutual Fund To Hold Forever @Anna: "If you were stranded on an island for
years, what is the one mutual fund you would own?" SEA very clever !
Regards,
ted
Regards,