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Please clarify if you mean both funds are keepers or otherwise.As I recall @David_Snowball said something about three bad years in a row being a good indicator that things weren't going to come back. But it seems to me that the fund is performing as advertised. As is RWGFX.
He has offered up thesis papers for things like SHLD but I've found they don't make much of a case/offer some broad positive points while neglecting to discuss some obvious concerns regarding specific details. They're basically happy talk papers.
As a shareholder of BB's FAIRX, I feel he has done a poor job of communicating his value vision to his shareholders. I understand a desire to keep your cards close to your chest, but an occasional confident wink would do wonders for my morale as I sit wondering what cards he holds and may play.
As for reversion to the mean, I try to think of it this way: A mediocre baseball pitcher might pitch a no-hitter one night; he might even have the best record in baseball for a month or so, but if you can see that he doesn't really have all that much stuff you can bet that he'll come back to earth. On the other hand, a really good pitcher can be depended on to pitch well, with rare exceptions, for his entire career. As for mutual fund managers, I just try to judge if their statements about what they've been doing make sense to me. If they don't, I'll assume they've just had a lucky streak. If they do make sense, I'll take the educated guess that they're really talented. Admittedly there's the danger that they're more talented writers than they are stockpickers, but...Hi @Vert,
Thanks for the insight from Andrew Foster! There certainly seem to be a good number of "value" emerging markets fund because a lot of them were coming up on the screens I did for low P/E, P/B and such. I'm not sure how that works out on M*'s style box because I didn't check all of them but they seem to be going for low valuations.
Do you worry at all about reversion to the mean with these guys? Even though value has been trailing for a few years now, PVFIX, TDVFX, BISMX and QUSOX have all had pretty nice runs. In theory when value comes back into favor these guys should do very well but at some point I worry that they won't keep up anymore. A few good things on their sides is that none of these guys have grown a big asset base and the "deep value" approach doesn't seem flooded with competition either.
I think it is possible to get into at least mid-cap territory as David Iben has done with his Kopernik Global All-Cap fund. It's also true that a lot of these values come because of a fairly big fall in price which also has an impact on market cap. In the case of the international funds, the strong dollar is hurting too.
Are you aware if this is a strategy used by these particular fund managers or something that has been done by managers of this fund in the past as well?Both of those look like good funds. I own GAOAX and have considered RPGAX. I also own QVGIX, which you might want to look at also.
I was looking at the Oppenheimer fund and noticed that the fund managers have been there for about 3 years or less. I wonder how that fund would do in a downturn.
The fund managers use what they call return shaping strategies, which allow them to hedge and to partially protect principal in environments of heightened volatility. They can buy VIX call spreads to protect downside.
The fund managers use what they call return shaping strategies, which allow them to hedge and to partially protect principal in environments of heightened volatility. They can buy VIX call spreads to protect downside.Both of those look like good funds. I own GAOAX and have considered RPGAX. I also own QVGIX, which you might want to look at also.
I was looking at the Oppenheimer fund and noticed that the fund managers have been there for about 3 years or less. I wonder how that fund would do in a downturn.
I was looking at the Oppenheimer fund and noticed that the fund managers have been there for about 3 years or less. I wonder how that fund would do in a downturn.Both of those look like good funds. I own GAOAX and have considered RPGAX. I also own QVGIX, which you might want to look at also.
Just like to mention that TPEMX is managed by Brandes and you could get pretty much the same thing a lot cheaper with BEMIX.@msf, here's a recent article from Advisor Perspectives that confirms growth has been outperforming value recently but that value eventually has its turn. Over time based on their comparison of the cheapest 20% of stocks on a book value basis compared to the most expensive 20% of stocks on the same basis, value handily beats growth.
advisorperspectives.com/articles/2015/08/11/why-you-should-allocate-to-value-over-growth
I suppose it would be interesting to know how well those cheapest P/B stocks do compared to the other 80% or to "blend" stocks because it could be that the deep value stuff suffers a lot more volatility or a bigger drawdown but doesn't outperform by nearly as much over time.
Thanks for the thoughts about cash! That seems at least as reasonable and how I was thinking about it and I guess it means I'd have to look at the details of those funds before drawing any conclusions about their approach. I do find it interesting, however, that Longleaf is pretty clear about their "deep value" orientation but the style box says large blend and their portfolio statistics don't lead me to the same conclusion. Obviously it hinges on what they determine the intrinsic value to be but it seems they've had a lot of difficulty keeping up with any of their peers for the last 10 years.
The Timothy Plan Emerging Markets fund you mentioned is pretty remarkable. They're really what I would expect to see in "deep value". Lots of Brazil, Russia, basic materials, utilities, industrials and very small P/E, P/B and P/S. The expense ratio is really high considering they have a 5.50% front-end load, but I guess that's what's necessary to earn any money when you only have $7.8 million of AUM.
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