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If you went on things like valuation, you would have either sold a lot of things too early in the last few years or missed things that didn't seem appealing from a valuation standpoint. I can come up with quite a few examples of things that I thought seemed expensive that I didn't get into and they've only gotten more expensive. Church and Dwight (CHD) is one that definitely comes to mind, there are a number of others.Let's assume that the S&P500 is overvalued. What's to say it couldn't become a lot more overvalued. You can lose a lot of cash by shorting. Shorting is a high risk and speculative activity. You can make more in the long run (decades) by taking good risks, rather than being big roller of the dice.
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