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delaying-social-security-benefits-retirement-planning/?A Siting from a 2024 Journal of Financial Planning article, Smith and Smith conclude: Our calculations do not support the presumption that the vast majority of people who choose to start their Social Security retirement benefits before age 70 are making a mistake. For example, … with a 4 percent real return, a person has to live to 89 for it to be beneficial to delay the start of benefits from age 67 to 70. However, 77 percent of 67-year-old males die before 89 as do 65 percent of 67-year-old females. Age 70 is not the most financially rewarding age to initiate benefits unless an individual has a low discount rate and/or is confident they will live several years past their life expectancy.
From the Author of the linked article at Kitces' website: Ultimately, the key point is that we need to move beyond simply thinking in terms of portfolio risk when assessing Social Security claiming analysis discount rates. Ideally, we should be thinking more in terms of utility and factoring in all risks, which changes the calculus significantly.
* snarfs coffee *
it gets better.
managed by tuttle, the greatest patriot that never existed, fabricated to run a financial scam.
one could fill a blackhole w/the irony lost on MAGA.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuttle_(M*A*S*H)
one of my favorite non-Flagg episodes.
Financial legend Charlie Munger praised William Green’s “Richer, Wiser, Happier” as “one of the best investment books ever written.” In it, Green distills the shared qualities of more than 40 great investors he has interviewed over the years.
I couldn’t find anything useful in the above comments. I actually have accomplished market timing.
but i'll only expound on that after they go up.
ok, enough useless fd1k channeling, here is something insightful undisputed by history :
"...financial history is that market pricing almost never takes into account the possibility of huge, disruptive events, even when the strong possibility of such events should be obvious. The usual pattern, instead, is one of market complacency until the last possible moment. That is, markets act as if everything is normal until it’s blindingly obvious that it isn’t.."
p.krugman
and paraphrasing from b.elliot (ex-bridgewater cio) :
it is not uncommon for the market to lag a bad economy for ~9 months after it becomes undeniable, which is on top of the lag from bad decisions that wrecked the economy.
both these put plenty of weight on the investor 'beauty pageant' effect...which is what investors think other investors think despite probabilistic leading quant indicators.
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