ICMUX is in 1% percentile rank for 1,3 and probably 5 year. What are they getting right that Vanguard with tens of Billions in bond management gets 0% over 10 years?
How the Largest Bond Funds Did in 2024
https://www.morningstar.com/bonds/how-largest-bond-funds-did-2024

Calamos has been on a tear the past couple years launching new funds - probably doubling the number over that period. I’ve long held slugs of two of their more established OEFs. But am in the process of exiting one completely based on the kind of craziness I see here - and wondering how the firm will adapt to managing significantly more products over a relatively short time?
In the case of these products … “no loss” doesn’t exactly translate into 0 loss for your portfolio over a 1-year period. (1) You are forfeiting the income the money would have earned in a CD, money market fund or T-Bill. More importantly, (2) you may be forfeiting an opportunity to invest that sum in a more productive asset if bargains become available. The combination of volatile Bitcoin here plus the apparent complex hedges used and “limited loss” / “no-loss” features bring to mind a casino or carnival contest …. But what’s new?
If past is prologue the funds will be immensely popular and draw in large sums.

Surely, this has already been mentioned: with fewer, if any, rate cuts to come, ostensibly it makes sense to hold paper that matures further out. My junk carries a rolling maturity of less than 3 years. My "mainstream" I.G. WCPNX holds stuff up to 5.5 years at the moment. Even with the higher quality, the yield is quite decent.
21st January, 2025:
PRCPX 7.02%
TUHYX 7.35%
WCPNX 5.23%
Helluva lot better results than your standard bank savings account. And the expected Orange deregulation ought to be useful. We can make money with share price appreciation, too. (Is it 2028 yet?)

Let me see. In 2023-4, the SP500 made over 50%.
In the last 15 years, about 13.8% annually.
* Valuation are high
* The next 2 years will not be as good as the last 2 years.
* There is a good chance the SP500 will go down 10-15% in the next 2 years.
WOW

I've been with VG for 20ish years. I've locked myself out a few times, mostly when I had the account locked down so only one computer could login. I think they key on mac address. I would clear cookies and that would for some reason lock me out. I turned that off once they went to 2FA. I've probably called VG 5 times over the 20+ years and 4 were for lock out problems I caused. Otherwise , no problems.

Bondland:
If you look at generic, typical funds, you get a lot of volatility without knowing the results because the Fed is in control.
To make a much better risk/reward decision, you must find these unique bond funds, which we discussed here for about 2 years with less dependency on the Fed. These funds also have higher distributions, lower volatility, and usually better performance.
This is why I never invested in high-rated bond funds; think BND, DODIX, and Treasury.
Why would anyone be serious about predicting the future, except for cheap publicity?

BB: @FD1000, why is that you invest only (or primarily) in bond OEFs and not in bond ETFs, which presumably will give you a better opportunity to buy low and sell high than OEFs would?
FD: because I found out I can make as much as allocation funds with min losses. Bond ETFs in most cases have simpler portfolios; mutual funds are the ones with a unique approach.
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davidrmoran, what isn't clear? To see very high risk, it must be reflected in the markets and certain indicators I follow. If it doesn't, I'm invested at 99+%. Nothing is based on predictions.
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Old_Joe: All my funds must be on an uptrend, or at least not losing. If I find a better fund than what I own, I switch. If risk is very high I'm out. It works mostly with bond funds and why I use them. I'm not about being right; it is part of what I do. It took me many years to master it
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Observant1, as usual, very limited analytical addition.

Unsure whether bonds are better opportunities than stocks in light of the high valuation? Feel like the time period prior to the 2000’s internet bubble.

My equity exposure only climbed to 41% after last week’s messing around. A bit of a relief. All that I read says the S&P (or portions of it) is way overvalued - but that there are other reasonably valued areas. I don’t know about bonds. A real question mark. Depends of course on inflation along with the possibility of recession. Higher or persistent inflation should drive interest rates up, while a steep recession would likely drive them down.. The only bonds I hold are owned indirectly thru other types of funds. For income I use CVSIX and LPXAX..
Like @Sven I’m seeing / reading a lot of comparisons to 2000. But no two periods are exactly the same. Even the bearish “experts” I read and / or subscribe to are not recommending selling all your equities. I don’t want to post subscription based content. But I’ll say the latest commentary in InvesTech (by James Stack) is unnervingly bearish in tone. I believe Stack allows newbies a free trial copy of the latest (monthly) newsletter if anyone so inclined. The publication takes a thorough look at many economic “bellwether” indicators every month and compares the current environment to past market cycles. All good. I have not found its more specific investment “calls” particularly timely in the roughly 2-3 years I’ve subscribed. But have learned a lot of useful information.

The Vanguard Flagship benefits which I found beneficial were the TF fund fee waivers
and easy access to the Admiral share class of actively managed funds.
However, Vanguard's "clunky" website and numerous customer service issues negated these benefits.
I was a Vanguard client for 12 years but transferred both my accounts to other brokerages in 2024.

People can make their own predictions for SP500.
%TR = %Dividend_yield + %Earnings_growth + %Change_in_P/E .
Over the next few years, IMO, yield 1-2%, earnings growth 5-8%, change in P/E -3% to -7% (fwd P/E).
So, %TR range -1% to +7% annualized over the next "few" years; I am not telling how many is "few". Some stocks will do much better than this and some much worse. It would be a trading market.

Resting 500s starter position in AMLP filled this afternoon. Happy to add more as appropriate.

That fund and related holdings have had a nice run over the last 4 years. Quite the chart. I've got to think the trend is your friend absent a black swan event which would crater demand for energy from those sources.

I don't see pipelines being a problem anytime soon, trend notwithstanding .. especially those with an emphasis on natgas. I hold large multidecade quantities already in a few names.
I sold my Canadian pipelines earlier this week on tariff concerns, but would love to buy 'em back sometime.

Resting 500s starter position in AMLP filled this afternoon. Happy to add more as appropriate.

That fund and related holdings have had a nice run over the last 4 years. Quite the chart. I've got to think the trend is your friend absent a black swan event which would crater demand for energy from those sources.

I’m in a one-year subscription. Was advised by many here it’s free at various sites. Color me dumb. There are periods, like the past 3 or 4 weeks, when I use M* 10-25 times in a day. More than most I’d guess. I use the performance numbers in inverse manner - looking for things with potential that haven’t appreciated a lot in recent years. Then try and determine whether that’s systematic or merely related to short-term macro forces. The holdings charts are good. I don’t like a lot of lower rated bonds and find their bond representations of great help.
The one thing that comes with a subscription is the lengthy (but heavily redundant) written “Analysis”. Somewhat useful, although I’ve determined it’s too trendy. When LCORX (one instance) falls from “gold” all the way down to “neutral” inside of a year’s time, to me that reflects problems with their rating methodology and not the fund. While they occasionally rate individual stocks, coverage of CEFs is lacking.
I’m getting my $$ worth based on the number of hits. No decision whether to continue. And the technical shutdowns (often on weekends) are a big concern. When you need data, it ought to be available. As I’ve said before, the portfolio trackers available at app stores for a couple bucks a month are vastly superior to anything web-based I’ve seen. Learning the new ropes, however, can be frustrating.
PS - Before I subscribed to M* I used a Lipper site. But I began getting blocked, as the site required a subscription to worthless MarketWatch. Even took out an online subscription to Reuters News thinking free Lipper access would come along. It didn’t. If anyone has a 100% foolproof link to a free Lipper site (or an inexpensive subscription with access to such) I’d appreciate it. Might drop M* in such case.

Comparisons are hard to come by owing to the recency of ETFs that replicate (or approximate) a longer standing OEF. One target that sheds a little light on the subject might be the Leuthhold core investment funds. Over 3 years (according to Morningstar) LCR has returned 4.97% Vs 4.71% for its older sibling LCORX. To me, the listed portfolios appear nearly identical. This would support ETF proponents’ claims that the lower fee translates into higher return.
Color me skeptical. One example is hardly conclusive evidence. Three years is a previous short time to draw conclusions. What will happen over longer market cycles (periods of heavy fund outflows, liquidity crunches, recessions, investor panics, etc.) is still largely unknown.
Taxes? I’d venture to guess 70%+ of the invested funds discussed here (this site) are under some sort of tax sheltered umbrella (IRA, 401K, similar). TMK there’s never been a poll. There are a lot of retirees. If that’s the case, then the tax issue is not on the table for the majority of us. But, yes, tax savings are important to a substantial number of participants. ETFs win on the tax front from everything I’ve read - but am not expert. On occasions when I’ve held significant non-sheltered assets, I’ve simply placed them into munis - side-stepping the issue.

@Level5, When buying callable Agencies, I ask myself if I would be OK with the interest rate if the bond is never called.
20 years is too far out - I may not be alive and I do not know if 5.5 to 6% yield is enough for something that far out, unless it is US Treasuries.
Re the 2036 due issue, Fidelity shows Yield to worst at 5.267% - that does not sound right. In any case, I only buy new issue to avoid having to deal with bid-ask spreads of secondary purchases and pay commissions.

”Investors plowed more than $1 trillion into U.S.-based exchange-traded funds in 2024, shattering the previous record set three years ago and raising Wall Street hopes for an even bigger year ahead. Longer-term trends also played a role as investors extended a yearslong practice of swapping their mutual funds for the greater tax advantages and easy trading of ETFs. Total assets in U.S.-based ETFs reached a record $10.6 trillion at the end of November, according to monthly ETFGI data, an increase of more than 30% from the start of 2024.”
https://www.yahoo.com/news/m/bc87aa1f-2106-3dc9-9dd4-533c498e5ead/a-record-shattering-1.html
I shall be telling this with a sigh
Somewhere ages and ages hence
(Robert Frost)

Citigroup has had a nice run over the last 2 years as Jane Frasier's realignment of the firm is bearing fruit. I sold my IRA position in C and will be adding JAAA at month end. Citigroup maintains its position in my taxable account.

:)
me too
have (barely) enough in retirement (expensive state and town), not all that many years left (mid-70s), concur in all the takes re ultrahigh P/Es, etc.
my greed needs to be strongly managed, though

I did some dip-buying recently (JQUA, TCAF, SPHQ) and now that I have made a few thou from them I may bail out of everything tomorrow or Fri, meaning that the only equity I will hold will be the accursed CCOR.
I am not expecting 800-pt days after Monday, he foolishly predicted.
Also sold out of total loser (years) bond funds; ~4.2% at ML and Fido looks good to me for now.