Has Gold Been A Good Investment Over The Long Term? A long-term owner of gold here. I think the question asked is wrong.
AU is not an investment -- good or bad. Its insurance. What is the rate of return on homeowner's insurance to someone who never files a claim? (hint: its a negative number, as cash only goes out, and does not come) Does that make homeowner's insurance something to be avoided? In a precise sense, purchasing insurance is not "investing", its an outlay, an expense. In return for the outlay, you are obtain protection for an asset.
AU is similar. You decide on an appropriate allocation, you incur an outlay. The difference being, with AU (unlike homeowner's insurance) after several years of holding it, you can decide to liquidate it and get (some portion of) your money back. Try doing that with your H/O insurance premiums....
As to dryflower's comment about a miniscule ROR on AU over 'thousands of years'... First, my investment horizon is not that long. Second, directly to D/F's point, if you were WERE sitting (for example) in pharoanic Egypt circa 1500 B.C., or 200 B.C Carthage, and invested in loans to the pharoah (i.e. Treasurys), fertile farm acreage and tenement apartments (real estate) , or the local camel merchant (equity ownership in commercial enterprises, i.e. 'stocks') ...then here come the Romans, they kill the camels, topple the govt, set fire to your buildings (real estate) and seize the lands (or in Carthage's case, 'seed' the land with salt to make it unusable).
What is the ROR on THOSE investments once title has been seized or property destroyed? (hint, if your equity in an asset goes to $0, its gone, forever.)
The camel merchant who sold his camels the day before the Romans landed, could easily hide the proceeds from that sale (gold coins), throw them a bags, walk them out into the desert somewhere, bury them by night (perhaps in sundry locations, to thwart burglars, and come back in a year or two, and his AU and wealth intact. Still not impressed? Fair enough, but what is the ROR (or current value) on an IOU from the last, deposed sovereign of Carthage? --- 10 years before he was deposed, all Carthaginians assumed the sovereign's IOU was AAA-rated...
The above story is tongue-in-cheek, but meant to get the point across about AU being insurance, not an investment. AU, because of its inherent attributes (universally desirable -- among all cultures past and present, relative scarceness, indestructability, portability) makes it a unique diversifier against the potential ravagings of conventional investment assets, WTSHTF.
We all may lucky enough to NOT experience a "Mega Black Swan" event. And our houses may never burn down. [I also have stocks, and bonds (in far greater value than my AU -- so please don't consider me a 'gold bug', any more than I am a 'stock bug' or a 'bond bug'. ]
Like Henry Walton Jones Jr, I am "a cautious fellow". I renew my H/O insurance each year and I hold some AU. I consider neither to be "investments"; I consider having some of both prudent.
The Dangers of Owning Treasury Bonds Today I used to find Kiplinger the best of the monthly finance (print-) mags, but the quality of their advice seems to have grown increasingly shoddy since the 2008 crisis. A couple impressions from the link:
a. The writer, Steve Goldberg (SG), observes T-rates are very low, and bonds are priced high. No argument there, rather, a question-- Is this news to anyone? It shouldn't be. But, OK, that is the underlying premise of the article. So how to react to this condition...
b. His suggestion? "Stick to bond funds with relatively short average maturities. If you’re willing to take some risk, buy funds that invest in some lower-quality corporate bonds." Hmm? SG doesn't seem to know/acknowledge the difference between owning bonds vs bond funds. (Or perhaps Kiplinger doesn't want their columnists to mention indiv bonds, as it might upset their mutual-fund advertisers?) -- An investor can invest in individual Treasurys -- perhaps in a bond ladder -- hold them to maturity and encounter no loss of principal.
Instead, he suggests short duration funds. This is a very, VERY crowded trade, as investors have been shoveling money into these for years --- The last time I looked (and its been a while) many of the holdings of short-duration funds were trading at premiums to par. The funds yield very little. Buying funds which hold bonds trading at premiums is a guaranteed drag on performance -- all dollar-good debt will move to par as it approaches maturity. Holding a bag of premium priced bonds is a good way to see your capital be whittled down.
Contining -- he suggests lower-quality corp bonds. That sound like junk. So SG cautions us to avoid Treasurys due to risk, but posits junk bonds as a less risky alternative.... Huh? Junk funds may/may not be a good bet here, that is not the argument I am making. Rather that as a "risk avoidance" strategy, it would not occur to me move from Treasurys to junk. Also, corporates, whether junk or IG are spread-products, their prices will not be immune to significant rate spikes in Treasurys. If (admittadly-) overpriced Treasurys suddenly and violenty sell-off, its is unlikely in the extreme that junk bonds will be a destination for capital wanting a "flight to safety"...
Another idea -- mine, not SG's--- online FDIC-insured banks can be found offering MMFs which yield ~ 1%, with NO duration risk. If the column's premise is "ways to downsize risk in your fixed-income allocation, Why doesn't SG mention those? --- Perhaps they don't advertise with Kiplinger?
SG is one more reason to avoid subscribing to Kiplinger.
Has Gold Been A Good Investment Over The Long Term? @rjb112(1) Since you are familiar with Siegel's book, do you have any reason why a supposedly scholarly undertaking like this fails to identify on its central chart which T-Bill maturity the plot-line reflects? The difference would be small. But I'd have more confidence in his numbers if I knew the methodology employed to reach them.
(2) I think we agree that gold is not an attractive long term investment.
(3) I think we also agree that over shorter periods (such as the referenced 15 year time-span) gold does sometimes perform quite well when compared against some other investments.
I'm not sure we disagree on anything of substance here.
hank, I don't know the answer to your question in (1). I strongly suspect the answer to which Treasury Bills were used will be found in Chapter 5, where he says, "In Chapter 5 we examine the details of these return series and see how they are constructed."
I don't have the time nor inclination to read that chapter. I don't own the book, but have it available thru the public library e-book series.
I agree with you when you say "The difference would be small." Since he refers to short term bonds as having the 2.7% annualized real return, he is equating the Treasury Bills he used for the chart to short term bonds. Perhaps he used one year T-bills? I have no idea, and agree with you that it would be much better to have that stated outright. I would also like to see the bonds identified....such as 30-year Treasury bonds, and even the stocks identified. That's where I'm guessing Chapter 5 comes into play.
I agree with your (2) and (3) above........certainly over the past 210
years, gold has been a terrible investment, but also, nobody has lived 210
years to hold it that long and achieve that terrible return. So if you bought gold in January of 2001 and sold it in 2011, you did fabulously. If you bought gold in 1980 at over $800/ounce and sold it in 2000 or 2001 at under $300/ounce, you did terribly.
All these things, including small cap value stocks, large cap growth, value stocks versus growth stocks, foreign stocks vs. US stocks, emerging market stocks, etc etc......are quite time period dependent. Large cap growth did great from 1995-2000, then did terrible, while small cap value did great starting 2000.........
Actually, I don't think we disagree on anything here.
And I'm not against gold.
Some of my favorite investors have invested in gold, such as Jean Marie Eveillard, the late Peter Bernstein, William (Bill) Bernstein, and others. I think Buffett may have even invested in gold or silver at one time. And John Templeton I'm pretty sure bought silver at one time.
And you don't have to look at gold as something you invest in to hit a home run with respect to total return. Many invest in it as an insurance policy against bad outcomes.
take care
Real Estate Funds and Turnover Hmm. The fund in question is one I own. ARYVX. It has done very well but looking at it recently I noticed it had 275% turnover. Maybe this was a one year thing? That is why I wondered where I could get previous years turnover rates.
Real Estate Funds and Turnover Do real estate funds in general have a high turnover rate? Also, is there a place one can research prior years to check the turnover rates for those years?
Has Gold Been A Good Investment Over The Long Term? Howdy campers,
Wow. Interesting discussion.
I see gold pretty much the way I always have - as a security blanket. Hell, I didn't even play gold before 2002 . . . and I have collected coins for over 50 years AND played silver since the Hunt Bros. It wasn't fun, nor profitable. However, when the bull woke up back in 2001/2002, it was the kinghellbastard momentum play. Geez, it was just back up the truck and roll back in a multi-orgasmic state if bliss. Hopefully, some of you played along.
That said, when the music's over, it's over. The outsized profits in the pm's are long past. That's OK. Eventually, they'll come again . . . but it may be 50 years.
I guess I'll stay with what I've been saying for some 10 years or so - everyone should have some small percentage of their wealth in pm's, preferably physical, hands on stuff. I like to use 3-7% as a guide, but it's really up to you. More than this is fine, but now you're speculating. Speculation is fine so long as you know what is afoot.
Some 5% or is like the bed buddies, my grand kids still have. It helps them sleep at night.
My wee staff of pm's helps me sleep at night.
and so it goes,
peace,
rono
Has Gold Been A Good Investment Over The Long Term?
Has Gold Been A Good Investment Over The Long Term? hank, maybe this will assist you. From Siegel's book, latest edition. Looks like a read of Chapter 5 might clarify things for you even more. Hope this helps.
"Asset Returns Since 1802
Figure 1-1 is the most important chart in this book. It traces year by year how real (after-inflation) wealth has accumulated for a hypothetical investor who put a dollar in (1) stocks, (2) long-term government bonds, (3) U.S. Treasury bills, (4) gold, and (5) U.S. currency over the last two centuries. These returns are called total real returns and include income distributed from the investment (if any) plus capital gains or losses, all measured in constant purchasing power."
...................."The real return on fixed-income investments has averaged far less; on long-term government bonds the average real return has been 3.6 percent per year and on short-term bonds only 2.7 percent per year."
hank, note that the 3.6% and 2.7% correspond to the bonds and bills in his chart.
"The average real return on gold has been only 0.7 percent per year. In the long run, gold prices have remained just ahead of the inflation rate, but little more. The dollar has lost, on average, 1.4 percent per year of purchasing power since 1802, but it has depreciated at a significantly faster rate since World War II. In Chapter 5 we examine the details of these return series and see how they are constructed."
hank, regarding your comment: "Regarding investing in T-Bills, it's hard for me to understand how they would have approached gold's return through appreciation during the post-2000 time-frame"
I agree with you. From 2001 to 2011 gold had superb performance, and I'm sure Treasury bills did not even come remotely close. Siegel's data is the really long term......from 1802 thru 2012. He never suggested that there were not time periods of 10, 15, 20, 25 years, etc, where the results were not significantly different.
Take gold for example: it lost 90% of its purchasing power, that is to say, real return, from 1980 until it bottomed, somewhere around 2001. Even on a nominal basis it lost 70% (not taking inflation into account). Then from 2001 till 2011 it was probably the very best performing asset class, far better than stocks, bonds, "bills" [Treasury bills], etc.
Happy Investing
Jim Cramer: Mutual Fund Investors Are Hosed Note: The above data was taken from Jim Cramer's own website!
Just buying an S&P 500 index fund, you would have performed 36% better than enacting every single buy and sell of the Action Alerts PLUS portfolio, which is a paid service so you can constantly check your emails and make all the buys and sells.........so you can drastically underperform the market, and pay much higher taxes from all your buying and selling, versus say the Vanguard S&P 500 Index fund where you will only pay taxes on qualified dividends, as there has not been a capital gains distribution in more than 10 years.
Jim Cramer: Mutual Fund Investors Are Hosed Thanks. Personally, I effectively have a "filter" and that filter has been trying to improve over the years. I love to research, I'll read anything, but it becomes filtering the information and maybe I take one little thing away from an article. Maybe I take nothing. Maybe I take a lot or enough to start research that leads me to adding a new position.
I've done less lately from the standpoint of wanting to put a cap on the number of positions and just focus on what I have, but the overall thing is that you have to have some degree of love/interest in it because - as everyone on this board knows - it takes work and research.
Has Gold Been A Good Investment Over The Long Term? No desire to become an apologist for gold - or any other investment. I've already stated that equities and corporate bonds are better alternatives over very long time frames. I do believe, however, that all investments have their "season". And to argue that gold is never useful to some in hedging portfolio risk is akin to arguing that short-selling of equities or holding cash (even at near 0 rates) can never be useful. The latter two are recognized ways for some to hedge the aggressive sides of a balanced portfolio. To that extent, gold may play a role.
More clarity as to the nature of "Bills" on Siegel's chart would be appreciated. It's likely a reference to T-Bills. My understanding is that these come in varying maturities. The 91-day T-Bill rate is often quoted, but 1-year T-Bills are available. I wouldn't (purposely) post data with as ambiguous a nomenclature as Siegel's reference to "Bills".
Regarding investing in T-Bills, it's hard for me to understand how they would have approached gold's return through appreciation during the post-2000 time-frame. Let's take a look. In 2000 gold was selling for $280 per Troy Ounce. This morning it's quoted at $1230. That works out to a compounded annual return of better than 10% over that 15-year span. I don't know what the 1-year T-Bill has returned over 15
years, but it's probably considerably less.
Gold Price Chart:
http://www.nma.org/pdf/gold/his_gold_prices.pdf
In the Future, Portfolio Management Will Be Free
why do i keep getting 'logged out' time & again, even though I have checked the box to 'rember me' ? This has happened to me for years, and I have to be sure to back-arrow to a previous browser session for the cookie to be grabbed properly. Only such site this happens with, so not governed by whatever privacy prefs in the same way.
Healthcare ETFs Have More Room To Run My fav etf in this space is PJP, up 28% in 2014. Added it 2 years ago because even though I had a health care fund and biotech fund, they did not seem to own large pharma. It's a keeper.
Art Cashin: "Interest rates Are Behaving" Why Ted, Why?
Why not? Or why get so upset? LOL, it's someone who's been on the floor for 150
years, I think he may know a couple of things he picked up during the eons he's spent at the NYSE. The only issue is that CNBC doesn't actually let him talk beyond "sound bites". Not his fault.
Welcome to the modern day of sound bites and "tweets". Einstein could live today and if he tried to explain tremendous theories to the masses via social media, his PR person would go, "no no, Albert, you have to keep your genius under 140 characters." He'd ask why and then be informed that the modern day population has an attention span of under 140 seconds.
When Cashin has occasionally interviewed elsewhere (King World News a couple of times, at least), he's been highly informative. CNBC is, well, CNBC.