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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Morningstar's Portfolio Manager Price Updating Concern ...
    Do you have to pay to be able to post in their forums? I think they are free. You could post a question there. Fortunately, I don't use M* and never have in almost 30 years of fund investing.
    Anyone can post in their forums. Morningstar.com-----on the far Right click "Discuss".....that takes you to their Forums.......go to General Forums.....select the Morningstar.com Forum and post there. There is already a topic, see above, "Incorrect Prices on Morningstar.com". M*_Darrin posted his message there....
  • Morningstar's Portfolio Manager Price Updating Concern ...
    Do you have to pay to be able to post in their forums? I think they are free. You could post a question there. Fortunately, I don't use M* and never have in almost 30 years of fund investing.
  • The Four Best Investment Newsletters For Funds
    The first recommendation, the Fidelity Investor: "His five portfolios hold funds an average of 1½ years"
    The second recommendation holds funds for 4 yrs, and the third one holds them for only two years.
    Those newsletter are Losing a lot of return to capital gains taxes by selling the funds so soon, versus buying and holding a market index fund. And that's not even including the typical annual capital gains distributions from the actively managed funds in the first, second and fourth newsletter.
    The Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund has not had a capital gains distribution in the 10 yrs for which data is available on the website. And since the index investors probably are not regularly switching their fund choices as in newsletters 1, 2 and 4, they have an investment with no capital gains taxes until they themselves decide to sell, which could be many years and in some cases decades. So in a taxable account it's like an IRA, except you have to pay taxes on the dividends.....
  • The Four Best Investment Newsletters For Funds
    FYI: Most investment newsletters are worthless. What’s worse, some are dangerous to your financial health. But a handful are first-rate. Thanks to the work of Mark Hulbert, editor of the Hulbert Financial Digest, who has been painstakingly tracking newsletter recommendations for 34 years, it’s possible to separate the gold from the dross.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.kiplinger.com/printstory.php?pid=12993
  • Q&A With David Herro, Manager, Oakmark International Fund
    In terms of Europe, I think the Oakmark fund has done very well most years except 2007 was painful and this year is painful as well. I don't own the fund but that wouldn't make me lose faith in it either. I own OBIOX and its not having a great year either but I like the approach the fund takes and I appreciated David's write-up. I also think OSMAX has a long and great record and I didn't own it previously because I won't pay a load, but I discovered recently that Fidelity has share classes without the load and I'm actively considering whether to add it to my portfolio as soon as Draghi is able to do more than simply talk the EUR down. If the Germans get onboard with stimulating the economy then I think we could see a big rally for Europe generally but hopefully even more so for the small cap fare that depend more on the local economy.
  • Sell Before/After Distribution?
    I know this will open the apples & oranges benchmarking can of worms, but I got my info from the WSJ Quarterly Mutual Fund tables which are created by Lipper. The 3 funds had C and D ratings over the last 3 years. If there are better performance comparisons I will gladly look at them. Thanks.
    Why not use the Lipper ratings directly instead of using the munging that WSJ contracted Lipper to do?
    Three year ratings for VDIGX are 4/4/5/5/5 (Total return/consistent/preservation/tax/expense)
  • Sell Before/After Distribution?
    I know this will open the apples & oranges benchmarking can of worms, but I got my info from the WSJ Quarterly Mutual Fund tables which are created by Lipper. The 3 funds had C and D ratings over the last 3 years. If there are better performance comparisons I will gladly look at them. Thanks.
    Not to sound like a broken record, but it depends what you want the funds to do in your portfolio and what your risk tolerance is.
    Both of the dividend funds are indexed to the NASDAQ Dividend Acheivers Index. I think they're both outperforming that, but that index isn't going to keep up with the bull market we've had. If you go back and compare to the S&P they are going to look mediocre over the last 1, 3, and 5 years.
    FSIVX's problem is that it's an index in markets that are lagging. That's when indices look bad. It will lead the way when developed markets come back. Bill Bernstein had some name for the phenomenon which I can't remember.
    To your original question, concur with msf and Jerry above. If these are in a taxable account, sell before distribution to avoid cost basis problems. If qualified, doesn't matter one bit.
  • Sell Before/After Distribution?
    I know this will open the apples & oranges benchmarking can of worms, but I got my info from the WSJ Quarterly Mutual Fund tables which are created by Lipper. The 3 funds had C and D ratings over the last 3 years. If there are better performance comparisons I will gladly look at them. Thanks.
  • George Invests $500,000,000 With Bill
    Is there any doubt?
    that:"We're all Keynesians (Krugmans)now."The last two paragraphs from a Bill Gross perspective posted today @ Seeking Alpha
    "But now at 500% to 600% of GDP (shadow debt included), it’s a Sisyphean struggle just to stay above water. Inflation, in other words – or in simple math – is required to pay for prior inflation. Deflation is no longer acceptable.
    Such is the dilemma facing central bankers (and supposedly fiscal authorities) in 2014 and beyond: How to create inflation. They’ve made a damn fine attempt at it – have they not? Four trillion dollars in the U.S., two trillion U.S. dollar equivalents in Japan, and a trillion U.S. dollars coming from the ECB’s Draghi in the eurozone. Not working like it used to, the trillions seem to seep through the sandy loam of investment and innovation straight into the cement mixer of the marketplace. Prices go up, but not the right prices. Alibaba’s stock goes from $68 on opening day to $92 in the first minute, but wages simply sit there for years on end. One economy (the financial one) thrives while the other economy (the real one) withers.
    Perhaps sooner rather than later, investors must recognize that modern day inflation, while a necessary condition for survival, is not a sufficient condition for increasing wealth at a rate necessary to satisfy future liabilities associated with education, health care, and a satisfactory retirement. The real economy needs money printing, yes, but money spending more so, and that must come from the fiscal side – from the dreaded government side – where deficits are anathema and balanced budgets are increasingly in vogue. Until then, Grant’s deflation remains a growing possibility – not the kind that creates prosperity but the kind that’s the trouble for prosperity."
    -William H. Gross
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/2699545-the-trouble-with-porosity-and-prosperity
  • For Some Stock Pickers, Worst Showing In 10 Years
    FYI: The pain keeps getting worse for stock pickers.
    Just 18% of portfolio managers who focus on large-capitalization stocks are beating their benchmarks so far this year, according to research by Bank of America Merrill Lynch. That’s the worst showing for large-cap managers in a decade.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/11/19/for-some-stock-pickers-worst-showing-in-10-years/tab/print/
  • A bit of what I call a broad vacuum (sucks) market day, eh??? 1 fund & 1 stock up for this house....
    The new economy revisited?(Broad spectrum not broad vacuum?) Info highway/clean efficient transportation vs capital intensive mining and oil e&p.
    Assorted news stories from early week. PVSAX Putnam Capital Spectrum Fund Class A +0.58(+1.48%) and PYSAX Putnam Equity Spectrum Fund Class A +0.58(+1.32%) both have a large stake in DISH that gave them a nice gain today.They both trail SPY Y T D but both have strong 5 year returns.
    Another wild-card bidder is Dish Network. There has been speculation that Dish Chairman Charlie Ergen wants to drive bidding prices up to help increase the value of the nearby airwaves licenses that Dish owns
    Nov 19, 6:40PM EST
    DISH 74.66 +6.81 (+10.04%)
    Statoil (NYSE:STO) says it will suspend operations of two offshore drilling rigs for at least the rest of the year, with no plans for redeployment, citing overcapacity.
    Transocean slides as fleet update shows more rigs idled
    http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/RIG
    Closing the mine is not CLF's first choice, but an attempt to find partners to share the cost of expansion appears to have failed, and selling a mine that needs $1.2B in capital is a doubtful prospect; even Teck Resources (NYSE:TCK), long interested in breaking into the iron ore business, isn't biting.If a sale process fails, a closure of Bloom Lake would close the books one of the worst acquisitions in the history of Canadian mining.
    http://seekingalpha.com/news/2138385-cliffs-massive-closure-costs-for-bloom-lake-stuns-investors
    Bidding in the FCC's AWS-3 spectrum auction have reached $24.1B barely 24 hours after topping $14B. Through 15 rounds, $1.19B alone was bid on a 10x10 MHz. license for the NYC area.
    http://seekingalpha.com/news/2138395-spectrum-bids-top-24b-at-and-t-verizon-seen-spending-heavily
    Linked from S A article
    http://recode.net/2014/11/19/wireless-auction-attracts-whopping-24-billion-in-bids-so-far/
    "We know there is a good potential in India for Tesla," Mr Vijayan said, adding "based on demand there could be a manufacturing plant in Asia and India could be one of the possible locations".
    He said Tesla has been working to produce affordable electric car to cater to the mass segment.
    "With our 3rd generation car Tesla Model 3, we are looking to make it more affordable at a price of around USD 30,000-35,000, which is about half of our current Model S," Vijayan said.
    The company has a manufacturing plant at Freemont in US that can roll out half a million units annually (If Tesla can achieve that $30-35 thou price point they'll probably be able to put a plant anywhere they want!)
    http://profit.ndtv.com/news/industries/article-tesla-keen-to-enter-india-but-says-high-import-duty-a-roadblock-700069
    Norwegian Air CEO rejects criticism of plan for U.S. budget airline
    BY ALWYN SCOTT AND JEFFREY DASTIN
    NEW YORK/SEATTLE Wed Nov 19, 2014 8:09pm EST
    Norwegian is one of the first airlines trying to bring low-cost flying to long-haul flights. It has a fleet of 17 Boeing 787 Dreamliners and plans to order at least five to 10 more.
    Kjos said the Irish subsidiary is necessary to obtain access for all of Norwegian's aircraft to fly between the United States, Europe and Asia. If the company is only incorporated in Norway, it does not have access to many countries in Asia, since Norway is not part of the European Union. That would leave Norwegian running two airlines that separately serve the United States and Asia, and not able to shift aircraft from one region to the other.
    They (opponents)say Norwegian will dodge U.S. labor laws by using its Irish subsidiary to take advantage of labor laws that are weaker than in Norway, threatening U.S. jobs.
    "It would be a logistical nightmare," Kjos said. "We can't have one airline flying east, one airline flying west." http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/20/us-usa-airlines-norwegian-air-idUSKCN0J402I20141120
    By COSTAS PARIS Copyright W S J
    Updated Nov. 17, 2014 8:49 a.m. ET
    (paste and copy)
    LONDON—Shipping freight rates from Asia to Europe, the world’s busiest trade route, on Monday logged their biggest-ever weekly drop, as European growth is stagnating and Japan just fell back into recession.
    Container-shipping volumes are considered an important barometer of the global economy. Container ships move items as diverse as household goods, apparel, toys, electronics and food. Analysts said they expected further shipping-rate weakness because the peak demand season for Asian exports ahead of the end-of-year holidays is already over.
    Prices between Asian and European ports fell 21% per 20-foot container to $934, compared with $1,175 at the beginning of last week, according to the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index.The benchmark Asia-to-Europe rate stood at $1,765 per container at the start of the year.
    “Shipping lines have at this point lost control over freight rates,” said Jonathan Roach, container-shipping analyst at London-based Braemar ACM Shipbroking. “They are desperately trying to fill their ships while being hit by a double whammy: a renewed global economic slowdown and a persistent overcapacity of ships.”
    (subscription) http://online.wsj.com/articles/asia-europe-shipping-freight-rates-suffer-record-weekly-fall-1416226192
    TV Studios Court Licensing Deals in Bustling Foreign Markets
    By AMOL SHARMA
    Nov. 19, 2014 10:33 p.m. ET Copyright W S J (paste and copy)
    For Warner Bros. and other U.S. studios, the international TV-licensing bazaar has never been more lucrative
    Licensing content to foreign TV channels is one of several ways U.S. media companies are tapping into growing overseas markets as they contend with a maturing pay-TV market at home. The U.S. growth in pay-TV subscriptions over the past 30 years has fueled the profits of TV channels and, in turn, created higher demand for the content studios like Warner produce.
    Now, U.S. cable and satellite connections have peaked at around 100 million households, representing 86.5% penetration. That compares with an average penetration of just 48% across non-U.S. markets in 2013, according to securities firm Jefferies, leaving plenty of room for growth in European, Asian and Latin American markets.
    As new international channels launch, they have voracious demand for content. The price paid by international networks for TV programming is growing at a double-digit pace, says Morgan Stanley analyst Benjamin Swinburne. “American studios have a huge advantage,” he said. “They can afford the kind of production budgets that most national players in their own market can’t.” (Content sales also go the other direction, of course, and U.S. TV networks have long licensed reality shows from foreign producers and are ramping up on scripted content, too.)
    (subscription)http://online.wsj.com/articles/tv-studios-court-licensing-deals-in-bustling-foreign-markets-1416454383?mod=WSJ_hp_RightTopStories
  • Morningstar's Portfolio Manager Price Updating Concern ...
    Wednesday 6:50 pm EST & 'my portfolio'@ morningstar is still not updated !!!
    ralph
    ------------------------------------------------------------------
    ALSO -- Here is a recent 'cut & paste' reply to another poster on the M* forum.
    --Re: Incorrect mutual fund prices on Morningstar.com11-17-2014, 7:19 PM
    "It's a sad state of affairs when we cannot trust the mutual fund quotes in Morningstar and have to go to other sources to find out what the correct price is."
    -------------------------------------------
    - Hello
    ---I have been checking 'other sources' for correct prices and M* has not gotten their act together.
    ---- for YEARS !!!!!
    retris
  • Sell Before/After Distribution?
    Jerry is addressing the question of whether to liquidate completely (and implicitly, this year or across multiple years). That's because of extra taxes/higher rates that could kick in.
    Edit: Upon rereading, I see Jerry largely addressed the item I also discussed below:
    Let me address a slightly different question - assuming you are going to liquidate this year, do you do that before or after dividends? Simple rule of thumb: liquidate all your long term shares before distributions. Short term shares are (usually) better liquidated after distribution.
    For example, suppose you have a LT share purchased at $100. It's now priced at $110. Suppose also that the distribution is going to be $3 LTG, $2 ord income. The price will drop to $105.
    Sell before distribution and you have $10 LTG. Sell after, and you realize a $5 LTG. But you've also got a $3 LTG distribution, and $2 in ord income. That $10 realized LTG is better than the $8 LTG ($5 + $3) and $2 ordinary income.
    The reasoning on the short term shares is the same, just backward. You're usually worse off realizing STG than getting the some of those gains as LTG distributions and some as ord income.
  • Q&A With Bob Rodriguez: New Great Recession Coming In 3 Years
    We can add Mr Rodriguez to the list of names that have called for the end of good times in the market. Wilbur Ross put out a statement late last week I think.
    Icahn has said it, now the other day he said 3-5 years. While people are looking for a Santa Claus rally and all that, I do think a pullback would be healthy.
    Also, Wilbur Ross has some kind of bizarre shell company listing that went public not that long ago.
  • M* Potential Allocation Manager Of The Year Winners
    Well, we had the winner for 10 years in a roth account. Win some, loose some.
  • M* Potential Allocation Manager Of The Year Winners
    Interesting that M* admits that the Manager of the Year award actually is not based on the current year. Why not call it fund of the decade that happens to have the same management for 7 years and has at least $10 billion is assets? If the award is for management, and if the name is Manager of the Year, what's with all the extraneous screens? And the required analyst rating insures only 20-30% of funds get admitted to the exclusive group. No funds under $3 billion need apply.
    Many of these are not what I would call allocation funds, where management has the ability to determine the mix of stocks and bonds. Wellington and Wellesley for sure have mandates they cannot change. Both American funds have held the same allocation for years and years. They, too, are restricted by prospectus. Price Capital Appreciation has great management, but it, too, has had an almost unchanged allocation for a long time. Puritan has had the same mix, within a percentage point or two, for ages. Franklin Income has actually changed allocation a bit over the last five years, up to almost 10% less in bonds. Thornburg is by far the most adventurous, but still not much.
    Given M*s rather glib interpretation of "allocation" (it seems to encompass balanced, all three allocation categories (conservative, moderate, aggressive), tactical, and world allocation) there are sure to be some great managers who are overlooked. FPACX, OAKBX, GLRBX, CAPSX to name a very few. I am surprised to see Thornburg on this list, but not disappointed.
  • Q&A With Bob Rodriguez: New Great Recession Coming In 3 Years
    FPA has been bearish for years. Years. I don't think FPACX is seldom below 20% cash. They were weary of a collapse quite a while prior to 2008, and had some sort of long-standing "buying freeze".
    I don't mind that, BTW. That's why I've hired them (via FPACX).
  • Q&A With Bob Rodriguez: New Great Recession Coming In 3 Years
    Legendary fund manager??? The past five years his flagship fund - FPPTX - has **severely** lagged its benchmark as well as the S&P.
  • Q&A With Bob Rodriguez: New Great Recession Coming In 3 Years
    "What are your thoughts about the upcoming November elections and the presidential election of 2016?
    They’re the most important elections in 80 years. I would like to see a revolt of nine to 10 senators shifting from Democrat to Republican/Independent. I guarantee that would send shock waves through many of the elites in Washington and set up for a major presidential outcome in 2016. Then the elected representatives may finally get around to dealing with what they should be dealing with — addressing out-of-control government spending and the complexity of our tax codes, which are starting to work in ways that aren’t positive. But if the shift is just in the four-to-six range, then it’s business as usual, and nothing will happen."
    --
    A bit dated. (Didn't the mid-terms already take place?) But demonstrates how intrinsically linked all this analysis tends to be to politics. (Paul Krugman would have a completely opposite view.)
    Rodriguez and Clements are painfully out of step with current investor sentiment. Their deeply entrenched bearish views (not specific to their current analysis) would have been better received on March 8, 2009.