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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • John Waggoner: Can You Retire On A $1 Million ?
    >> If a person was to retire now or in the future before medicare/medicade kicks in that would be a significant cost that would impact the $1M question.
    Too true, but ACA has nothing to do with it, and in fact has made this scenario quite a bit better.
    Eloquent and thoughtful writeups, as others have said. msf's progressive history is highly useful to keep in mind, JohnC's advice is spot-on, and MikeM's situation is gratifying to hear about but for sure no longer available to anyone but the very rarest of situations. My own story is a combo: intensive and constant savings over the years, luck living in bullish decades, some in-law money to help with college, expensive location but frugal lifestyle, many layoffs and long stints of unemployment during which I consulted and had skills in moderate demand, and now sudden, enforced, but seemingly sustainable retirement. Lots of luck throughout, some of which I suppose I enhanced.
  • John Waggoner: Can You Retire On A $1 Million ?
    That is the key. A lot of people do not know how to be frugal. They grew up spoiled by their parents or parent who couldn't say no. That is the end result when they are adults. There is a lot of stuff people can cut back on. Going to the movies every week? Bad habits like pubs or clubs most nights of the week. Eating out all the time instead of cooking at home. The list is huge.
    As for the question of attaining a million being easier for older people, my opinion is that we were raised by folks who endured the Great Depression and WW2. They taught us to spend wisely and save for the future. Somehow the lesson got lost as generations went by and now young children have iPhones and parents spoil them silly. Us older people were working in our school years already. Summers might mean picking berries or whatever was local. Now there are restrictions on how much young people can work.
    My keys to attaining a lot of money? Learn the discipline of saving early on. Even if the amount is small, it is that discipline that gets ingrained into one's mind and eventually you are putting several hundreds into your retirement accounts. (depending on your salary of course) Another key is to quit loaning money to the government in the form of overpaying your taxes. How many people get huge refunds every year? A lot. For example if you got $3000 back on your taxes that works out to $115 each paycheck. (3000 divided by 26) That money could be going to your 401k etc. Reduce your withholding so that you get close to break even. As you put more money into your tax deferred accounts, your taxable income goes down more and that provides you with even more money to put away. Usually big refunds get spent on adult toys or vacations etc.
    If you get a bonus or a raise, think about what would happen if that hadn't happened. Put those raises and bonuses into your retirement accounts too.
    How was my life after all that? I ate well, drove new cars, went on vacations etc. I wasn't deprived of the good things in life, I just knew what my limits were. I never let credit cards ruin my financial plan. That is very easy to do. I had a average middle class wage at my work but I did work OT and that also was saved. By the time I was in my early thirties I had my first $100k. Getting to $200k was much faster. The curve really takes off once you hit a certain amount. My accounts continued to soar as I kept to my plan. I won't tell exactly how much here but it is substantial. I was fortunate to have a good bull market. That is something we don't know or can predict. I made my share of mistakes as well. I pulled out of my funds after Oct 1987. That crash rattled me but it was a learning experience and I didn't make that mistake a second time. I thought about buying AAPL at $18. Hindsight. Thats water under the bridge now. I had money in Twentieth Century Ultra fund when it rose 87% one year. I had money in the TRowe Price New Asia fund when they had some booming years early on. Gold was spectacular in the early 2000's. I guess those made up for the mistakes.
    The main point is to keep pumping the money away and whenever you have an opportunity to increase that, go for it. It's called paying yourself first.
    I apologize for the long post. I didn't mean to drift off here but I wanted to share my experience and maybe someone can use some of my tips to increase their assets.
  • John Waggoner: Can You Retire On A $1 Million ?
    Again, very enlightening thread. I am not wealthy nor am I even rich. I'm just fortunate to be debt/mortgage free and live in one of the lowest cost of living areas in the entire U.S. I am sure there are some here whose investable assets, aka nest egg, dwarfs mine. However, there is a *huge* discrepancy between my lifespan expectancy of around 18 more years and my nest egg expectancy and in favor of my nest egg. Even if I live to 100 (33 more years) there is still a huge discrepancy and that is assuming I simply live off principal only and never invest/trade again. The bottom line I guess is I need to step up my spending big time. Like maybe purchase that vacation home outside of Asheville in Black Mountain. Easier said than done though if you lived a lifetime mastering the art of frugality and always fearful you are going to revert back to your days of living in abject poverty. Maybe I need to see a financial shrink!!!! No, that costs money. Anyway, I am off for week hiking in NC. So best of luck next week growing those nest eggs.
  • John Waggoner: Can You Retire On A $1 Million ?
    Oh, sure, sorry to have sounded ignorant; I just meant that I myself would have gone (and did go) to great lengths to convert into a Roth, if at all possible, even late. I worked my whole life until a couple years ago, so I know how if you save, it can build up, yes.
  • John Waggoner: Can You Retire On A $1 Million ?
    @davidmoran
    Don't forget, some 401k, 403b, 457 accounts may become very large over the years and then rolled into IRA accounts. One may end with a farily large dollar value.
  • Best L/S Fund
    BPLSX has served me well over the years and I'm hoping it will continue to do so during the next market downdraft.
    I just envy people able to buy institutional shares. It is mind boggling how many on MFO routinely quote ownership of institutional shares.
  • Why High Yield? Why Now?
    @AndyJ,
    Yes and it has been good for me as I put another amount into ASDVX as part of my asset allocation rebalancing. I got lucky and got it when things were down for HY. I admit I have very little knowledge on this specific subject but I learn every day as this is a long term holding.
    Years ago I had told myself I would never invest in junk, only high quality bonds. Times and circumstances have changed since that time way back. The credit crisis was not envisioned then.
    All the best.
  • Catching falling knives
    @hank: True enough, and the threads about what you're buying/selling/considering tend to illustrate that trend as well. I like those discussions and I would like ones that focused on what's your favorite investment right now, regardless of whether its new or held for years. It would just be an alternative way of discussing ideas and how people are thinking. I would read and contribute to both types of discussions and might even start them at some point. I know some people have opinions about what might or might not be valuable in these discussions and I have my opinions as well. I just wouldn't want to stop anyone from posting whatever they find valuable or want to discuss, and I'd rather place the burden on myself to just not participate in the topics that don't interest me.
  • Catching falling knives
    @LLJB: Thanks. Great comments. Like Ol Skeeter, I wasn't going to say any more either.
    However, with reference to your new car analogy, I think that's one reason Scott's threads may appear to some to focus only on the funds that were recently bought. (the "unlimited bankroll" comment comes to mind). When you buy a new car, that's what you're prone to think about and talk about to others. The old one you traded in is "history" and you're inclined not to mention it unless somebody asks about it. Human nature. ..... Plus, a lot of folks have built up some pretty large cash positions in recent years as stocks have soared.
  • Know What Junk Bond Funds Are---And Aren't
    +1, Catch
    Not to the messenger; but to the writers of the article. Man, I'm glad I am not in this line of work; requiring to pump out something, anything.
    Did it really require two people to put together this piece; and what did anyone learn???
    We learned that junk bond holdings went down, along with the broad U.S. equity market recently when some folks were a little bit shaken. Apparently the marketplace remains on the 1-3 month investment return(s) range, eh? I also don't recall an explanation related to the title.
    The title could have been, "What have your investments done for you in the past 1-3 months?" Holy crap. with this type of article; as Robin would say to Batman.
    My 2 cents for HY vs, well; the SP-500/ SPY.
    Typical for the HY versus the SPY measurements for the past 5 years is that for every 1% move in SPY, HY bond sectors (active managed) move .25 - .33%; up and down. Plain and simple.
    Yes, there are times when these numbers do not follow this pattern.
    A quick view of a plain jane HY bond fund; and not even the best of the bunch, is to review SPHIX vs SPY.
    Total returns:
    Jan, 1999 - Oct 22, 2014
    SPHIX = + 166%
    SPY = + 107%
    The nasty period, Oct 2007- March 19, 2009
    SPHIX = - 24%
    SPY = - 48%
    Data source is Stockcharts.com.
    Your mileage may vary.....
    Regards,
    Catch
  • Catching falling knives
    Hi LLJB,
    I was not going to make continued comment ... about my investmet style.
    What you wrote about your father was much in of the same as to how my father raised me. I believe they both were wise gentlemen. I lost my father about ten years ago but his teaching and lessons I learned form him about life still remain a big part of my life today. One of them was to learn from others but think on your own. I take great pride in being able to write this as you probally did about what you wrote.
    Sincerely,
    Old_Skeet
  • Best L/S Fund
    BPLSX has served me well over the years and I'm hoping it will continue to do so during the next market downdraft.
  • Best L/S Fund
    It would seem to me that judging any fund based on a one-week period is very short-sighted. Yes, the premise is that long-short funds should have some upside participation and should have limited downside. Just what those amounts are is certainly open to discussion. A top equity fund manager said this week that the market volatility on Wednesday last week was another 'flash crash' that will result in an investigation, caused by hedge funds and other traders begin caught in the euro/dollar speculation. I would not expect my long-short fund to anticipate something like that. On a longer time horizon, however, I would and do expect L/S managers to navigate the markets reasonably well.
    The group of 30+ L/S funds we track use all kinds of strategies, and only about half of them have 3-year records, and fewer than 10 have 5-year records. Those with 10-year records held up much better than the S&P 500. As I look at a handful of L/S funds with long-term records, it would appear that investors should use these with the understanding that they will underperform, sometimes significantly, when markets are in a strong bull trend. For me, that is the trade-off. The crux is how they handle real bear markets. Because we have not had one of these since 2008, it is difficult to evaluate the large number of L/S funds that have come to market in the last 1-2 years. They could look pretty good now, but they could be real stinkers in a long bear market.
    Selecting the BEST long-short fund is problematic, therefore. Those with long-term measurable records include GGUIX, CLSIX, GATEX, HEOZX, MFLDX, FMLSX. It is very easy to look at some of the newer funds and assume the current performance is indicative of long-term expectations. That would be a mistake.
  • Know What Junk Bond Funds Are---And Aren't
    Not to the messenger; but to the writers of the article. Man, I'm glad I am not in this line of work; requiring to pump out something, anything.
    Did it really require two people to put together this piece; and what did anyone learn???
    We learned that junk bond holdings went down, along with the broad U.S. equity market recently when some folks were a little bit shaken. Apparently the marketplace remains on the 1-3 month investment return(s) range, eh? I also don't recall an explanation related to the title.
    The title could have been, "What have your investments done for you in the past 1-3 months?" Holy crap. with this type of article; as Robin would say to Batman.
    My 2 cents for HY vs, well; the SP-500/ SPY.
    Typical for the HY versus the SPY measurements for the past 5 years is that for every 1% move in SPY, HY bond sectors (active managed) move .25 - .33%; up and down. Plain and simple. (These numbers are from personal experience with our holdings during this period.)
    Yes, there are times when these numbers do not follow this pattern.
    A quick view of a plain jane HY bond fund; and not even the best of the bunch, is to review SPHIX vs SPY.
    Total returns:
    Jan, 1999 - Oct 22, 2014
    SPHIX = + 166%
    SPY = + 107%
    The nasty period, Oct 2007- March 19, 2009
    SPHIX = - 24%
    SPY = - 48%
    Data source is Stockcharts.com.
    Your mileage may vary.....
    Regards,
    Catch
  • Wednesday. Oct. 22. Before the Bell.
    I agree@scott, the restaurant business is a tough one. Most don't last the first year.
    I guess my comment is based on the experience of watching CNBC get ahold of a stock and start reporting on it ad nauseam. Of course how many times did they report on GE, the parent company of the network? Some might call it pumping the stock. Never mind that they had a big chunk of GE in their 401k's.
    CNBC did push GE and now they talk favorably of Comcast. CNBC does pump certain stocks (Jim Rogers called CNBC a "PR agency for stocks" and whatever one's opinions of Rogers are, that's not an entirely inaccurate statement, really.)
    There's also the video of Cramer from The Street a few years back where he talked about the idea that hedge funds will call up CNBC's floor reporters with a view and that view is pushing their book. It wouldn't surprise me if it happens often.
    CNBC pushes whatever is talked about often and whatever they think is of interest to retail. Things like social media stocks. Rarely do you get any discussion of foreign stocks at all and discussion of unheard of names has become rarer and rarer. I was stunned when one of the anchors referenced the band Fugazi, speaking of things most probably haven't heard of.
    The video in question (from Youtube:) While people have their opinions on Cramer and have probably seen this video, it's worth watching from the standpoint of I think it's the reality that people have to at least kind of keep in the back of their mind.
  • How Are Top -Yielding Dividend Funds Performing ?
    FYI: Few of today's top-yielding dividend mutual funds have been around for 10 years. Few are beating the S&P 500 year to date. And none of the top yielders have higher returns than the S&P 500 in the past 10 years.
    For example, Alpine Dynamic Dividend Fund leads the pack with a 12-month yield of 6.28%, far above the S&P 500's 1.98%, according to Morningstar data.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://license.icopyright.net/user/viewFreeUse.act?fuid=MTg1ODc5MzM=
    Enlarged Graphic: http://news.investors.com/photopopup.aspx?path=WEBlv1023.gif&docId=723101&xmpSource=&width=1000&height=1152&caption=&id=723098
  • Catching falling knives
    Personally, I've noticed some comments about the threads I occasionally do before this thread and it kind of gets to a point where it's certainly not upsetting but a little surprising and kinda "well, fine, that's not something that has to be done". The threads were intended to encourage discussion (because I do like this forum and I guess I'm of the thought process that I'd like to see it be more inclusive and less a little club for the same group of 10-20 people) and were open threads on a discussion forum. I'm glad that people enjoy them and I'll continue to do them or anyone else is welcome to start them whenever they see fit.
    The other thing that I think may be a little bit of an issue is, what are you (and I direct this to everyone) looking to get out of this forum? What do you expect it/want it to be? Maybe that's a discussion to have.
    Personally, feel that when I make a decision to invest in something, I'm responsible for that decision. For me, nothing here is going to be an "actionable idea" in and of itself, ever - I may find someone's idea interesting and if I do, I'll do the research and then I'll make that decision. That should be for any investment idea from someone on the internet, whether here or on seekingalpha or a morningstar article or whereever - you have to do the research and decide whether or not that investment is something that is right for you and understand it yourself rather than go on what an article says.
    To me the whole idea of the threads wasn't about actionable advice as much as it was some manner of "small talk", where people could just kind of throw out what they like. Rather than multiple threads of people talking about what they currently like/are looking at, there could be something of a chat (once every week or perhaps two) within the larger chat forum.
    "Is there a reasonable time period for our ideas to pan-out? Or will we be held up to scorn if the investment doesn't make money next week?"
    Well, then it becomes something else, where we're writing articles with detailed recommendations and specific time periods. This, combined with the fact that many of us are very different, different risk tolerance, different time horizons, etc. I buy with the intent of holding for possibly years. Others may trade by the day. I don't disagree with the various methods that people use on this board (I'm of the mindset that hey, if that's working for you, great) and, if anything, am fascinated by the diversity of ideas and approaches.

    Futures are a very small portion of my portfolio and its my play money. Most of the time I make bets based on a combination of fundamental and technical aspects of whatever I trade. Right now I'm long Canadian $ and short Euro and keeping my eyes open for opportunities to short Yen and 30 Year Treasury Bonds.
    Finally, I have a few investments in private equity that have become a much larger percentage of my portfolio than they should be but it shouldn't be too much longer before I find out whether my thought process was right or not.
    What you're doing sounds very cool. I own a fair amount of private equity and I view it more as the desire to have continual exposure to that asset class with the understanding that it is volatile and does go through cycles. Despite the variable nature of the dividend from the private equity companies, I'm largely paid to wait with it.
  • Know What Junk Bond Funds Are---And Aren't
    FYI: Low interest rates have led many investors to buy high-yield funds holding below-investment-grade, or junk, bonds.
    It’s a strategy that has paid off over the past few years. But lately, investors have seen the other side of these high-yield bond funds: negative returns. As the stock market turned volatile, the funds lost money on average over the past month and three months, even as high-quality bond funds delivered positive returns
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://blogs.wsj.com/totalreturn/2014/10/22/know-what-junk-bond-funds-are-and-arent/tab/print/?mg=blogs-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fblogs.wsj.com%2Ftotalreturn%2F2014%2F10%2F22%2Fknow-what-junk-bond-funds-are-and-arent%2Ftab%2Fprint&fpid=2,121
  • Asset Classes: Real 10-Year Expected Return
    Rob Arnott and his firm, Research Affiliates is the source of that chart showing the expected 10-year returns of different asset classes.
    Rob Arnott has managed the Pimco All Asset All Authority fund for 11 years, since inception. So how well has he done implementing his firms' forecasts into a real life portfolio? It appears that he can invest in anything, anywhere with this fund, PAUIX.
    Above, PAUIX. Below, the S&P 500 over the same timeframe.
    image
  • Catching falling knives
    Has been discussed numerous times over the years.................that folks should likely regard what is put in place on these pages; "as suggestions or for your further review".
    This includes the well known names among the Wall St. crowd, Phd'd. economist folks and other related studies/theories; who/that continue to have bouts of "cranial-rectal inversion", regarding the world of investments.
    Time to leave.....