The Stockdale Paradox and Investing For those who don't know, Admiral James Stockdale was a POW during the Vietnam war; the highest ranked 'guest' in the Hanoi Hilton. He was there for eight
years and was tortured more than twenty times.
Many POWs didn't make it but Stockdale and some others did.
Collins asked Stockdale, "Who didn't make it out?"
"Oh, that's easy," he said. "The Optimists."
Collins was confused as he thought Stockdale was an optimist as he had no doubt he would get out of his situation.
Stockdale clarified:
"The optimists. Oh, they were the ones who said, 'We're going to be out by Christmas.' And Christmas would come, and Christmas would go. Then they'd say, 'We're going to be out by Easter.' And Easter would come, and Easter would go. And then Thanksgiving, and then it would be Christmas again. And they died of a broken heart."
"This is a very important lesson. You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end - which you can never afford to lose - with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be."
As applied to investors, there are a lot of optimistic investors that don't make it. For example, people who were excited about stocks in the late 1990's were optimistic that stocks will continue to earn 15-20%/year just as it had in the recent past. This was sort of the "we'll be home by Christmas" optimism in Stockdale's story. Maybe it doesn't seem so bad as the market hasn't done much since then, but most likely, these people piled in at the top and then puked out their positions in the following bear market (and most likely didn't get back in).
A very insightful post.
Regards,
Reo
http://brooklyninvestor.blogspot.in/2014/08/good-to-great-stockdale-paradox.html
Ouch Funds 2014 Hi Old_Joe,
While you are extending the rope for MFLDX ... Mainstay thanks you. I believe in giving a fund manager ample time to position the fund but when Mainstay kept the fund open rather than closing it to where it could be well managed based upon ever changing macro themes ... Well, I recently decided to book my profit in the fund and move on. It has now got to turn some good investment tricks to move the nav. By the way MFLDX shorted DUK during its merger with PGN and it moved the nav big time. With its size today this play would now amount to no more than a drop in a big bucket.
The same thing happened in Ivy Asset Strategy. I held that fund for a good number of years and as the assets under management kept increasing I noticed so did the time it took the managers to reposition the fund. And, it became so large that it was noted and alleged by some that its repositioning and rapid selling of some S&P 500 futures caused and lead to the great ... Flash Crash. With that, I let it go.
Sometime things just get too big to manage.
That leads me to BankAmerica ... It to got too big for its britches, by my thinking, and look what has transpired. Glad I sold the family stock in that monster before it tanked. And, now there is Duke Energy another Charlotte, NC based company. When the board of directors of Duke hoodwinked the North Carolina regulators about the planned merger with Progress Energy ... Well, I sold off my DUK stock too. And, I still do not feel good about the size that DUK has become. From my thinking ... It is just now too big to effectively manage and I am looking for something to crop up if it has not already ... Look at the problems they now face with those toxic coal ash ponds.
Simply stated when I feel things have gotten too big to be managed ... I move on.
Old_Skeet
Bonds. The Intense Discussion Thread. That was something I guess I would have to wait twenty years for. I didn't really pay much attention to the MarketTimer title because he seemed to be a steady and sure investor with some small changes along the way. When the 2000 tech crash hit there was no change. Maybe he figured it was too late? Anyway that was the beginning of when I started to question his tactics. I think he was more like John Bogle than a timer. That crash did come out off nowhere to be fair.
Bonds. The Intense Discussion Thread. For all the years I listened to Brinker, and that amounts to around 15 years, he was very much the "stay the course" advisor. Perhaps his change of stance is reflective of a new investing environment we now face. Since 2008 it has been fast changing.
One thing JohnChisum is that he has always been a market timer. His monthly subscription newsletter is called market timer. So I think bailing out of Vanguard GNMA's, Vanguard TIPS, and other high quality fixed income investments goes along with a Marketimer, even though market timing is usually associated with stocks. Actually, he's timing the bond market in a sense.
Bonds. The Intense Discussion Thread. For all the years I listened to Brinker, and that amounts to around 15 years, he was very much the "stay the course" advisor. Perhaps his change of stance is reflective of a new investing environment we now face. Since 2008 it has been fast changing.
How crazy would it be to implement this portfolio? @davidrmoran yes, you're probably right, and that was silly of me to call out that particular fund. But my basic thought is that for
years we've been in a long-term bull market for bonds due to falling interest rates, so any backtesting for the last few decades is going to make a bond heavy portfolio look very good, but I'm doubtful as to whether that can continue. Interest rates just can't drop much further, and they may start going up.
I'm sure the best funds will do fine, but a repeat of the 9% a year returns PIMIX has turned in the last 5
years is unlikely. Of course some people say stocks are overvalued too... Personally I don't see that, so I'd overweight POAGX in this two-fund portfolio, even if bee's backtesting shows that overweighting PIMIX was the way to go the past 5
years.
I don't have a cristal ball, just my two cents' worth.
Bonds. The Intense Discussion Thread. I'll have to listen to him again. I'm sure I can listen on the internet somewhere.
You can listen to the archives on ksfo.com
Choose Sunday from 1-4 pm. There is a 7 day archive of all the ksfo.com radio programs. He did talk about bonds today. Actually, you can skip 3-4 pm if you are mainly looking for his info on bonds, because 3-4 pm is an interview with a guest author
Bob Brinker is now recommending bond funds with shorter durations than the GNMA fund. The average duration is just a little over 1. His logic is that, in an improving economy, he would rather have credit risk than interest rate risk. He's actually going against the advice generally given by Vanguard (to stay the course in total bond market index) and Jason Zweig and I'm sure others. I like Brinker as well and would welcome the opportunity to dialogue his advice.
@Jim0445, yes, in posts to JohnChisum I went over this. He sold his Vanguard GNMA holding quite some time ago, because he is convinced interest rates will rise and any bond fund with a significant duration will do very poorly. Currently the Vanguard GNMA fund has a duration of 5.8
years. Brinker has an average duration of 1.1
years on his Income portfolio.
Yes, I welcome the opportunity to dialogue his advice with you too. He's definitely going against the advice to 'Stay the Course'.....he's investing in Fidelity's bank loan fund, OSTIX and DoubleLine Low Duration and MetroWest Low Duration. Taking a lot of credit risk. Those investments didn't work out well at all in 2008.......